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jay14bay

Buddy Hield 2019-2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Buddy had a breakout season in 18-19, finished ranked 38 in 9-cat. The man is a certified knock-down shooter. He has the starting SG spot on lock, really only with Bogdanovic taking minutes behind him.  The Kings will probably also run a some 3 guard lineups featuring mixtures of Fox, Cory Joseph, Buddy, and Bogi, meaning his 32 mpg should be safe.  But on the other hand, Luke Walton made some questionable HC decisions, especially two years ago in LA before Lebron came, and we have no idea what he might do in Sactown.

Here's last years line: 82 games, 32 mpg, 20.7 ppg, 3.4 3pm, 5 reb, 2.5 ast, 0.7 stl, 0.4 blk, 1.8 to, 45.8% and 88.6% (An aside on the avalanche of 3pm in recent seasons - these numbers would have put him in the top 20 in 2016, see: Klay Thompson)

Honestly it's hard to see him improving too much on that, besides some more steals and 1-2 ppg scoring. The new look Kings suddenly have a lot of mouths to feed. There is a chance he bombs even more triples, but my guess is the odds are he ends close to 3.5 per game again. Josh Lloyd's early projections agree, and have his projected rank at 35, one spot ahead of Trae Young.

Lots of people got him at a major discount last year, and this might be the last year where you can get him a round or two late since he doesn't get a lot of national media attention (KANGZ). I think his ceiling would be if he managed an ultra-efficient season and approached 50% fg, which would put him closer to 25 ppg, and probably a top 20 ranking.  I wouldn't draft him that high though. Thoughts?

Edited by jay14bay
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1 hour ago, jay14bay said:

Buddy had a breakout season in 18-19, finished ranked 38 in 9-cat. The man is a certified knock-down shooter. He has the starting SG spot on lock, really only with Bogdanovic taking minutes behind him.  The Kings will probably also run a some 3 guard lineups featuring mixtures of Fox, Cory Joseph, Buddy, and Bogi, meaning his 32 mpg should be safe.  But on the other hand, Luke Walton made some questionable HC decisions, especially two years ago in LA before Lebron came, and we have no idea what he might do in Sactown.

Here's last years line: 82 games, 32 mpg, 20.7 ppg, 3.4 3pm, 5 reb, 2.5 ast, 0.7 stl, 0.4 blk, 1.8 to, 45.8% and 88.6% (An aside on the avalanche of 3pm in recent seasons - these numbers would have put him in the top 20 in 2016, see: Klay Thompson)

Honestly it's hard to see him improving too much on that, besides some more steals and 1-2 ppg scoring. The new look Kings suddenly have a lot of mouths to feed. There is a chance he bombs even more triples, but my guess is the odds are he ends close to 3.5 per game again. Josh Lloyd's early projections agree, and have his projected rank at 35, one spot ahead of Trae Young.

Lots of people got him at a major discount last year, and this might be the last year where you can get him a round or two late since he doesn't get a lot of national media attention (KANGZ). I think his ceiling would be if he managed an ultra-efficient season and approached 50% fg, which would put him closer to 25 ppg, and probably a top 20 ranking.  I wouldn't draft him that high though. Thoughts?

His FG% is capped due to shooting only 48% from 2, although he's an exceptional 3PT shooter at 43%.  He was actually better than Klay at 3PT% last year.  Those two numbers cap his efficiency, but I think he can repeat it from last year.  He's also capped by a lack of stocks.  If he can get over 1spg then I think he enters second round discussion.  He's a good rebounder for his position.  His efficient scoring and threes are already elite.  I don't see either progression or regression, 35-40 is probably correct. 

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6 hours ago, jay14bay said:

Buddy had a breakout season in 18-19, finished ranked 38 in 9-cat. The man is a certified knock-down shooter. He has the starting SG spot on lock, really only with Bogdanovic taking minutes behind him.  The Kings will probably also run a some 3 guard lineups featuring mixtures of Fox, Cory Joseph, Buddy, and Bogi, meaning his 32 mpg should be safe.  But on the other hand, Luke Walton made some questionable HC decisions, especially two years ago in LA before Lebron came, and we have no idea what he might do in Sactown.

Here's last years line: 82 games, 32 mpg, 20.7 ppg, 3.4 3pm, 5 reb, 2.5 ast, 0.7 stl, 0.4 blk, 1.8 to, 45.8% and 88.6% (An aside on the avalanche of 3pm in recent seasons - these numbers would have put him in the top 20 in 2016, see: Klay Thompson)

Honestly it's hard to see him improving too much on that, besides some more steals and 1-2 ppg scoring. The new look Kings suddenly have a lot of mouths to feed. There is a chance he bombs even more triples, but my guess is the odds are he ends close to 3.5 per game again. Josh Lloyd's early projections agree, and have his projected rank at 35, one spot ahead of Trae Young.

Lots of people got him at a major discount last year, and this might be the last year where you can get him a round or two late since he doesn't get a lot of national media attention (KANGZ). I think his ceiling would be if he managed an ultra-efficient season and approached 50% fg, which would put him closer to 25 ppg, and probably a top 20 ranking.  I wouldn't draft him that high though. Thoughts?

You basically said it all.

I don't mean that disrespectfully, there's just nothing else to say until preseason

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Buddy said his main focus this offseason was working on ways to draw more fouls and get to the foul line more. Don't know if that'll materialize but the dude has got a legendary work ethic. I actually think Walton as coach is a boon for him overall. Dude will jack up even more 3's this season IMO.

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his consistency and health bumps him up even more imo even though you wont have to pay extra for it. think fox takes another step forward as well which is only good news for buddy

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I'd say he's one of the safest picks you can make around the 4th round.  I think the steals go back up closer to 1.  He's had stretches of closer to 1.3-1.5, so a little bump there is very realistic.  Also, he's great at least contesting shots, so the 0.4 blocks could stick and is also valuable.  If he gets to the line more that's even more value.  Plus the playoff schedule is looking good!  Buddy all day. 

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Posted (edited)

I am not sure, but is De Aaron Fox available in 5th round? Then I prefer to take him at 5th and not Hield in 4th.

Edited by apatas

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7 hours ago, apatas said:

I am not sure, but is De Aaron Fox available in 5th round? Then I prefer to take him at 5th and not Hield in 4th.

 

No he's going 3rd-4th...

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

No he's going 3rd-4th...

Fox also 3rd-4th?? I am surprised... I thought Fox is not a popular pick due to his low efficiency.

Edited by apatas

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7 minutes ago, apatas said:

Fox also 3rd-4th?? I am surprised... I thought Fox is not a popular pick due to his low efficiency.

 

Yeah, maybe 5th at the latest?  It's the youth + assists + steals + points combo...

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7 minutes ago, apatas said:

Fox also 3rd-4th?? I am surprised... I thought Fox is not a popular pick due to his low efficiency.

Fox went 28th and 29th in the two H2H leagues I've drafted so far, one $100 buy-in, the other $200.  He also went 19th in a dynasty I did but I don't count that bc it was a dynasty.

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i actually think buddy still has more upside. He can potentially see an uptick in 3s and pts with Walton coaching. Sac is pretty deep but i think Buddy and Fox will get theirs and i think Bagley improving will help Buddy get more open 3s. 

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Bogdanovic plays right now very well at World Cup. I have seen 26 minutes predicted for him. Can he play about 10 minutes with both Hield and Fox? If can then I see Hield playing 32-34 minutes but otherwise I think he can lose some minutes to Bogdanovic.

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5 hours ago, apatas said:

Bogdanovic plays right now very well at World Cup. I have seen 26 minutes predicted for him. Can he play about 10 minutes with both Hield and Fox? If can then I see Hield playing 32-34 minutes but otherwise I think he can lose some minutes to Bogdanovic.

 

As I stated previously, I think Buddy is a lock for his minutes because he is the future of the team.  They will re-sign him for a big extension this year.  Bogi is a great player but I don't see him staying with the Kings, partly because they will choose Buddy over him.

My guess is Bogi doesn't get as many minutes as he'd like this season.  Fox, Hield, and Barnes should be a lock for starters minutes. But Bogi can play the 3 as well, so I think it really depends on how they use Ariza at the backup 3.  If Ariza is playing ~20 minutes then I don't see any way Bogi gets to 26 min. If Ariza rides the pine ($12M benchwarmer?) then I might be wrong.  This year Sac is a logjam.

PG - Fox, Joseph
SG - Hield, Bogi
SF - Barnes, Ariza, Bogi
PF - MB3, Bjelica
C - Dedmon, Giles, Holmes

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4 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

This year Sac is a logjam.

 

And another added wrinkle to the logjam is Luke Walton and his wannabe Warriors philosophy and idiotic rotations - the same guy that would bench Brook Lopez every single 4th quarter good game or not so Randle could get murdered by Embiid and other real centers.  

Beyond Fox, I am not touching anyone on this team because of Walton.

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Its a shame that we even have to discuss Hields minutes going down. If the Kings find a way to decrease his role then I believe they’ll become an even bigger joke around the league.

This guy has improved every year since entering college. His work ethitic is increadible and Ive stopped betting against him when it comes to him improving his game. The real issue is the Kings and I do not trust them.

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13 hours ago, j3rkthenurk said:

What do you guys think of his dynasty value?

 

Will his game be sustainable once he hits around 32/33?

 

Probably but it doesnt matter at that point 5 years into the future

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Buddy was a huge win last year, but the secret is out to some extent this season. He is not a big name and plays for the ugly duckling of California teams, but I think the ADP is going to be on the high side this year. It could be a reasonable draft spot for return on draft capital, but you will never see the value like last year and have to be cautious trying to chase similar performance. Can he boost his steals to boost value?

I see downside risks with increasing usage going to Bagley and a better center in Dedmon coming over, although he is low usage so that in minor. Will teams game plan for Fox and Hield better this season? Maybe...

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Another great year for Buddy Hield. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to draft him (we're having the snake draft for H2H league).

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What's the deal with him and the Kangz, then? Just pre-contract grumbling or...?

Lowkey wondering if this situation might give BogBog some value.

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I believe his comments to the media can be translated simply as, "If the Kings want me to stay they're gonna have to grossly overpay me because I'd rather play elsewhere." 

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