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dudewithabadcat

Ty Johnson 2019 Outlook

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So...this dude weighs almost as much as Kerryon.  He is one inch shorter than Kerryon.  He has breakaway speed.  Great hands.  I'm wondering if Ty would be a nice little stash to see what happens in Lions camp.  I am just not buying the Kerryon hype. 

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He seems like a poor man's Kerryon Johnson (he's faster in a straight-line but doesn't seem to have explosiveness of Kerryon) and as a result I'm not sure he sees the field while Kerryon is healthy outside of kick returns where he is probably one of Lion's top options. Not sure how much Lion's will increase KJs workload in year 2 (I think he was very promising in year 1 with what he got but at his size he likely can't last 16 games getting 15+ touches per game) but I assume CJ Anderson will soak up most of those carries as a bigger body back (with Zenner also in that more power runner mold). 

 

While certainly dangerous with the ball in his hands, Ty Johnson's college receiving stats aren't great due in part to he was often subbed out on passing downs since he is a poor blocker (although that isn't an issue that is going to disappear at the next level). Therefore, I don't see a clear offensive role for him to step into.

 

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2019 outlook... as much as any cuff... based on size and speed he should have been more sought after but he wasn't I'm not a scout but clearly he wasn't thought super highly of or he'd have went somewhere that needed a starting rb...can he turn into something? Yep would I use him as he sits to replace a starter in my line up? Can't rely on him for more than 5 touches a game and those could be easily for 12 yards....

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This is another of my deeper league RB, end-game guys. He's been impressive and even earned some first team work.

Not hard to see a path to him being a big add this season.

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I found these highlights: decent runner (with a great O-line), decent returns. I don't see him break a lot of tackles though.

Holy carp, that Maryland O-line was good, and from what I see most of the starters return this year. Ty Johnson though... outside return yard leagues I don't know. He did decent in preseason for the Lions, so who knows.

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I can't speak to what sort of line he ran behind, but he picked up chunks of yardage --for sure--

CBS:  The Lions selected Johnson in the sixth round of the 2019 NFL Draft, 186th overall.

"Johnson (5-foot-10, 208 pounds) is an intriguing prospect who boasted both explosion and versatility at Maryland, where he regularly saw the field from the start of his freshman season. His best season arguably came as a sophomore when Johnson set a school record with 9.1 yards per carry on 110 totes, but he also took a kickoff to the house as both a junior and senior."

RW:  "Johnson was let loose in his sophomore season with the Terps, setting a school record with 9.1 yards per carry while accumulating a team-high 110/1,004/6 rushing. Despite following that up with another standout campaign as a junior (137/875/5), a calf injury and the arrival of Anthony McFarland set Johnson back in his final year. A straight-line speedster who burned a 4.45 40-time in Indy and finished with 7.0 YPC under his collegiate belt, Johnson has skills and fills a role in Detroit's backfield that neither Kerryon Johnson nor Theo Riddick bring to the table."

He certainly looked plenty shifty in camp/pre-season according to reports. I fully believe in Kerryon, but he is not exactly a proven commodity and it seems that Ty has earned some sort of running back role:

ESPN's Michael Rothstein writes, rookie RB Ty Johnson "should have a role with Detroit this fall as a change-of-pace back."

The Lions have been pleasantly surprised with Johnson's receiving and big-play abilities, enough for Rothstein to believe he'll see "a few touches per game" in the regular season.

 

I don't think CJ Anderson will exactly stand in his way much (unless he is literally attempting to stand in front of him)...21 yrs old and a playmaker, great deep league material

 

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4 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I can't speak to what sort of line he ran behind, but he picked up chunks of yardage --for sure--

giphy.gif

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Perfect blocks, amazing running lane, nobody even touches him and he looks amazing. But when the O-line didn't do that for him, he struggles every time and he can't break a tackle or escape:

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Next play the same, this time to the outside:

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I don't really see him create anything. Give him a lane and he'll use it (and not every back can do that, so kudos to him) but I don't see that he creates anything on top of what the O-line gives him.

 

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1) That is a 4 video sample size

2) That second run was a nice cutback. Most guys would have bounced that outside on the strong side. Nice vision there.

3) That third run was actually pretty solid lol. He dragged three defenders and extra 3 yards after getting hit basically as soon as he passed the LOS.

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He's talented and the Lions FO and CS clearly like him.  With that said, he's buried on the depth chart, maybe even as low as 4th now with the JD McKissic signing.  The speculation around Lions fans and beat writers is that he was drafted to be the Theo Riddick replacement (Riddick was cut this preseason), but he still needs to work on his receiving before he can really claim that role.

I don't think he'll be much this year.  With that said, he's the only RB on the roster still under contract next year after Kerryon.  As it stands right now I think he's primed for a big breakout year........ in 2020.

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9 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I found these highlights: decent runner (with a great O-line), decent returns. I don't see him break a lot of tackles though.

Holy carp, that Maryland O-line was good, and from what I see most of the starters return this year. Ty Johnson though... outside return yard leagues I don't know. He did decent in preseason for the Lions, so who knows.

 

They won their first game 79-0...

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Gotta say I did not see the CJA release coming.  I wouldn't exactly be running to the WW unless you're in 14+, but it's definitely a situation to keep an eye on.  He's look good in limited action so far this year.

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3 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

Gotta say I did not see the CJA release coming.  I wouldn't exactly be running to the WW unless you're in 14+, but it's definitely a situation to keep an eye on.  He's look good in limited action so far this year.

His college stats suggest he can't handle a full workload though.

I know my friend has Kerryon and would really not like to see me with this guy.

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He is the handcuff so you should snag if you have the roster space. 

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He's a freak. At Maryland's pro day ran mid 4.20s 40 and put up 27 bench reps. Both would've been the best of the rookie class if I'm not mistaken. Should continue getting chances, could easily see him cucking Kerryon.

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Guy is an athletic freak but not a very good RB.  Nothing about him out of college wow'd me other than his measurables which are elite.  Maxed out frame reminds me of AA but a lot faster. Poor lateral movement and not shifty for a guy his size.  In space, get him on a bubble screen and some blocking and he can take it to the house.  Lacks vision.  Racked up yards against poor competition and didn't do nearly as well against solid opponents.  I get the excitement over the measurables, not over the way he plays and his RB ability.

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22 minutes ago, Sternes said:

Guy is an athletic freak but not a very good RB.  Nothing about him out of college wow'd me other than his measurables which are elite.  Maxed out frame reminds me of AA but a lot faster. Poor lateral movement and not shifty for a guy his size.  In space, get him on a bubble screen and some blocking and he can take it to the house.  Lacks vision.  Racked up yards against poor competition and didn't do nearly as well against solid opponents.  I get the excitement over the measurables, not over the way he plays and his RB ability.

 

Shame on Lions coaching staff for cutting cj Anderson and elevating this guy to the #2 RB if what you say is true.

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30 minutes ago, Sternes said:

Guy is an athletic freak but not a very good RB.  Nothing about him out of college wow'd me other than his measurables which are elite.  Maxed out frame reminds me of AA but a lot faster. Poor lateral movement and not shifty for a guy his size.  In space, get him on a bubble screen and some blocking and he can take it to the house.  Lacks vision.  Racked up yards against poor competition and didn't do nearly as well against solid opponents.  I get the excitement over the measurables, not over the way he plays and his RB ability.

I get the criticism, but you're also leaving out that he's shown elite pass catching and play making traits out of the backfield. 

I see him more like Tarik Cohen than an every down back. 

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6 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Shame on Lions coaching staff for cutting cj Anderson and elevating this guy to the #2 RB if what you say is true.

 

Why?  CJ has been awful in camp, preseason, and now his first two games.  Guy looked out of shape, not the guy I loved in Denver; but a shorter fatter version of Blount. 

I'm still baffled why the team kept him this long.  I'm also baffled by the team signing him for a veteran presence then cutting him.  2nd year RB, rookie RB, and then scrubs like McKissic and Perkins.  The team can't seem to make up what it wants to do in the backfield behind Kerryon.

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

I get the criticism, but you're also leaving out that he's shown elite pass catching and play making traits out of the backfield. 

I see him more like Tarik Cohen than an every down back. 

 

No he hasn't.  He caught 29 passes in college. 29.  By seasons he had 2/16/5/6.   He currently has 2 catches for 6 yards on the Lions.  Elite? 

 

He is nothing like Cohen.  He can't make people miss.  Have you watched him play at all? 

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14 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

No he hasn't.  He caught 29 passes in college. 29.  By seasons he had 2/16/5/6.   He currently has 2 catches for 6 yards on the Lions.  Elite? 

 

He is nothing like Cohen.  He can't make people miss.  Have you watched him play at all? 

"Ty Johnson's workload-adjusted receiving involvement is a boon to his NFL potential. While never recording more than 16 receptions in a season in a terrible Maryland passing offense, Johnson posted Satellite Scores of 39.6 and 10.5 as a freshman and sophomore, respectively, before notching a 93rd-percentile mark of 55.4 in 2018. The 10.5 Score he posted in 2017 is the clear outlier here, as the 2.2% target share he garnered in that season is well below his other seasonal marks of 8.2% and 6.7%. While he caught just 29 passes in four seasons in college, adjusting his receiving contributions for overall offensive involvement indicates that Ty Johnson should be a high-quality receiving back in the NFL, as his final season Satellite Score is comparable to those of other workhorse-sized runners like Alvin Kamara, Arian Foster, Ronnie Brown, DeMarco Murray, Joe Mixon, and Saquon Barkley. Even if he doesn't latch on as a three-down player, his passing game acumen is good enough that it should allow him to fill a role as a big, explosive satellite back."

93rd percentile satellite back score tells me he has all the skills, even if he wasn't consistently used that way in college. 

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2 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

"Ty Johnson's workload-adjusted receiving involvement is a boon to his NFL potential. While never recording more than 16 receptions in a season in a terrible Maryland passing offense, Johnson posted Satellite Scores of 39.6 and 10.5 as a freshman and sophomore, respectively, before notching a 93rd-percentile mark of 55.4 in 2018. The 10.5 Score he posted in 2017 is the clear outlier here, as the 2.2% target share he garnered in that season is well below his other seasonal marks of 8.2% and 6.7%. While he caught just 29 passes in four seasons in college, adjusting his receiving contributions for overall offensive involvement indicates that Ty Johnson should be a high-quality receiving back in the NFL, as his final season Satellite Score is comparable to those of other workhorse-sized runners like Alvin Kamara, Arian Foster, Ronnie Brown, DeMarco Murray, Joe Mixon, and Saquon Barkley. Even if he doesn't latch on as a three-down player, his passing game acumen is good enough that it should allow him to fill a role as a big, explosive satellite back."

93rd percentile satellite back score tells me he has all the skills, even if he wasn't consistently used that way in college. 

 

I don't care what made up fairy tale crap that is from.   Give me a breakdown of what a satellite score is, and how they can pull random numbers out of it based on such a small size.


"adjusting his receiving contributions for overall offensive involvement indicates that Ty Johnson should be a high-quality receiving back in the NFL"

 

Can you even explain to me what this means?

 

Have. you. watched. him. play?  He isn't shifty, and he isn't smooth. He isn't laterally quick, and at best he sort of weaves through a hole rather than cuts and explodes.

 

The part calling him a "big" back was at least good for a laugh.

 

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Just now, Sternes said:

 

I don't care what made up fairy tale crap that is from.   Give me a breakdown of what a satellite score is, and how they can pull random numbers out of it based on such a small size.


"adjusting his receiving contributions for overall offensive involvement indicates that Ty Johnson should be a high-quality receiving back in the NFL"

 

Can you even explain to me what this means?

 

Have. you. watched. him. play?  He isn't shifty, and he isn't smooth. He isn't laterally quick, and at best he sort of weaves through a hole rather than cuts and explodes.

 

The part calling him a "big" back was at least good for a laugh.

 

I've seen highlights. I hope you'll forgive me for not watching an extensive amount of Maryland's offense. 

Here's an explanation of satellite score. https://thevitruvianprospect.blogspot.com/2019/01/introducing-satellite-score.html?m=1

 

 

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44 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I've seen highlights. I hope you'll forgive me for not watching an extensive amount of Maryland's offense. 

Here's an explanation of satellite score. https://thevitruvianprospect.blogspot.com/2019/01/introducing-satellite-score.html?m=1

 

 

 

His highlights aren't even good.  I saw the same type of hype with Dwayne Washington.  I just don't see it.

 

Thank you for the link.  The scoring is trash.  There is no correlation between what it is trying to measure and the results.  They are random players listed all over that make no sense like a guy like L. Murray, D. Washington, and M. LeShoure being better pass catchers than D. Freeman.  It is trying to quantify stuff without any context of the usage.  Factoring in target share for instance, doesn't make any sense.  It reminds of QPR.  Yeah, passer rating wasn't perfect, but you can see the flaws because we know how it is calculated.  This sort of gives us the information, but again, what is it trying to solve?  I don't see the purpose of the metric when I can see with my own two eyes if the guy can catch a ball or not.

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I want to get excited, because I love being able to grab these under the radar guys before my league even knows they exist. But when I watch the highlight reel and 50% of the "highlights" are 25-30 yard kickoff returns...

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