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Ty Johnson 2019 Outlook

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19 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Jamaal Williams is getting a 50/50 split with Aaron Jones

Undrafted Philip Lindsay came out of nowhere to get more than a 50/50 split with Royce Freeman who was playing well all year

Kerryon lost out on 150 plus carries last year to LeGarrette Blount and was sat despite being completely healthy towards the end of the year. Kerryon was also losing 8 rushes per game so far this year only to CJ Anderson, who's awful.

Patriots yearly rotating at least two backs despite talent disparities between them virtually every year

Kerryon with injury issues dating back to college.

50/50 split? Yeah that's on the high end of outcomes. A 60/40 split still makes Ty quite valuable in any decently sized league. Don't forget coaches also get to see these people play every day in practice, I doubt they're relying on just 8 touches (although Ty's touches so far have been quite a pretty thing to see).

 

 

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Well, we’ll all know soon enough.  If he gets 7 or 8 touches tomorrow, he’s a hold for me as he could fill in for a bye week or injury.   If not, he’s droppable for me if I see another potential Kamara in the wire.

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36 minutes ago, TennisDude said:

And Kerryeon already seems to be slowing down

Huh?

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When we think we forget to be mentioning is him in PPR. since their PPR stud who often was an RV to is no longer on the team, but has moved on to play with the Broncos, there may be an option for Ty Johnson to have a big role in the passing game. So if he gets five carries and another five targets for four receptions, that might give him a total of 50 yards and another four points for his receptions so a floor of 9 which certainly makes him Flex worthy and a very good handcuff as well.

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34 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Jamaal Williams is getting a 50/50 split with Aaron Jones

Undrafted Philip Lindsay came out of nowhere to get more than a 50/50 split with Royce Freeman who was playing well all year

Kerryon lost out on 150 plus carries last year to LeGarrette Blount and was sat despite being completely healthy towards the end of the year. Kerryon was also losing 8 rushes per game so far this year only to CJ Anderson, who's awful.

Patriots yearly rotating at least two backs despite talent disparities between them virtually every year

Kerryon with injury issues dating back to college.

50/50 split? Yeah that's on the high end of outcomes. A 60/40 split still makes Ty quite valuable in any decently sized league. Don't forget coaches also get to see these people play every day in practice, I doubt they're relying on just 8 touches (although Ty's touches so far have been quite a pretty thing to see).

 

I don’t disagree with Ty having value potentially, but a few counters to these

   -   Jamaal Williams and Phillip Lindsay are 100% irrelevant to this thread. I only care about what Patricia and Bevell think of their RBs.

   -   Patriots never take RBs in the first two rounds and when they do, that RB gets fed. But the Patriot philosophy the last few years has been to involve RBs more heavily overall, so instead of distributing the pieces of the pie differently, they’ve just been expanding the pie. Bevell seems to want to do that. 60 touches to 4 RBs in two games is good

   -   JBC/Patricia had the training wheels on Kerryon early on last year. From weeks 3 to 10, averaged 16+ touches per game. Blount was 100% a nonfactor during that time and only started getting carries again when Kerryon went down.

 

For Ty to have value, you’re basically banking on Bevell/MP continuing to feed the RBs 25+ touches per game which just won’t always be the case. Kerryon seems pretty much locked in at 14-20 touches per game while the backups may fluctuate between a handful and 15 on a game by game basis.

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He's on my watch list. Hard to gauge his value over other lottery tickets like Hunt.

Edited by ponchsox
Removed Assistant Coach content

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47 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

Huh?

 

Kerryon Johnson stats

2018 avg ypc 5.4

2019 avg ypc 3.18

Maybe that won’t continue, but to me he looks more plodding/slowing down suddenly shrug

Edited by TennisDude
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So far through two games the Lions have averaged approximately 26 rushes with approximately 14 going to KJ and 12 between CJ, Ty, and McKissic. Minus CJ so stars looking up for Ty.

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Pass-wise, the RBs have been targeted 9 times with KJ getting 5 and McKissic with 2 (game 1) and Ty with 2 (game 2).

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33 minutes ago, TennisDude said:

 

Kerryon Johnson stats

2018 avg ypc 5.4

2019 avg ypc 3.18

Maybe that won’t continue, but to me he looks more plodding/slowing down suddenly shrug

 

🤦‍♂️

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32 minutes ago, jsch08 said:

 

🤦‍♂️

 

I looked it up. Dude posted statistical facts. I don’t really understand your thoughtful and introspective rebuttal. 

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3 minutes ago, MrPositive said:

 

I looked it up. Dude posted statistical facts. I don’t really understand your thoughtful and introspective rebuttal. 

 

I think it speaks for itself. He is using ypc as his argument. Did we not just see how misleading ypc can be as a metric with Fournette’s Thursday game? 

One of the ypc metrics he used is carrying a 2 game sample size. You are correct that he is posting statistical fact, but that doesn’t mean it’s not 🤦‍♂️ worthy.

I very much disagree with him looking sluggish. Looks like he accelerated plenty fast and is sudden with his cuts still to me. He’s entitled to his opinion on how he looks but I will still laugh at the ypc argument.

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10 minutes ago, MrPositive said:

 

I looked it up. Dude posted statistical facts. I don’t really understand your thoughtful and introspective rebuttal. 

2-game YPC sample sizes are the basis for every strong argument!

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2 minutes ago, jsch08 said:

 

I think it speaks for itself. He is using ypc as his argument. Did we not just see how misleading ypc can be as a metric with Fournette’s Thursday game? 

One of the ypc metrics he used is carrying a 2 game sample size. You are correct that he is posting statistical fact, but that doesn’t mean it’s not 🤦‍♂️ worthy.

I very much disagree with him looking sluggish. Looks like he accelerated plenty fast and is sudden with his cuts still to me. He’s entitled to his opinion on how he looks but I will still laugh at the ypc argument.

 

Sorry, but I cannot discount ypc like you just did. Though I agree it is only a 2 game season thus far. I guess we’ll all see what happens in a few hours anyways.

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4 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I don't think there's a backup in the league that steps in as a full bellcow. Are you saying KJ currently has no value in his current role? Because if he got hurt that's essentially what Ty would presumably walk into. 

If you don't see value in owning handcuffs at all, then I guess that's up to you. But at this moment Ty looks like he'll have a decent workload now, and one that would obviously increase if KJ went down. 

Mattison is the only cuff I have and I don’t even have cook. I’m saying people are talking about Ty being valuable in a 50/50 split. To me, that only kills one another’s value. If KJ goes down, yeah Ty has a ton of value. 

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remember Theo Riddick is gone and this guy is fast and is able to catch passes. If he could take over the Theo Riddick roll and spell kerryon Johnson for a few carries a game he could be a running back to or at least a flex in PPR leagues.

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1 minute ago, Funkenstein said:

Most dropped player in Yahoo tomorrow night?

I already dropped him for Dorsett, but I am enticed.

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1 hour ago, CanaBuc said:

remember Theo Riddick is gone and this guy is fast and is able to catch passes. If he could take over the Theo Riddick roll and spell kerryon Johnson for a few carries a game he could be a running back to or at least a flex in PPR leagues.

I member. Member Kevin Smith, Javid Best, Michael Lashoure. All those backs put up numbers before succumbing to injury.  A Detroit Rb can produce if they find the right one. 

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59 minutes ago, blabety said:

I already dropped him for Dorsett, but I am enticed.

Same here, i dropped him for Dorsett lol

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There are tons of boom bust receivers out there. Would rather the RB with upside. Let them percolate on my bench.

Dorsett will always be the 4th receiving option on a team that goes run heavy when temps get cold. 

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57 minutes ago, ohio#1eaglesfan said:

I member. Member Kevin Smith, Javid Best, Michael Lashoure. All those backs put up numbers before succumbing to injury.  A Detroit Rb can produce if they find the right one. 

There was a solid few weeks where Jahvid Best was literally the Best. 

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6 hours ago, TennisDude said:

 

Kerryon Johnson stats

2018 avg ypc 5.4

2019 avg ypc 3.18

Maybe that won’t continue, but to me he looks more plodding/slowing down suddenly shrug

 

I don't like Kerryon, don't have him on any team, and his stats/YPC have definitely declined this year. That said, he's just about as far from a "plodder" as you can get.

 

 

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1 minute ago, vercrazy said:

 

I don't like Kerryon, don't have him on any team, and his stats/YPC have definitely declined this year. That said, he's just about as far from a "plodder" as you can get.

 

 

A lot of dancing, not too many yards...

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On 9/19/2019 at 1:51 PM, Watitdookie said:

To picky back on that, they got rid of Theo Riddick, who’s had fantasy value of weekly 8-10 points in PPR. Now they made a personal decision with CJA by waiving him. Cj got 6 carries in week 2 and now that’s 6 more touches added on to Ty Johnson who already had 7 touches last week. So 7+6= 13 touches/targets/opportunities that Ty Johnson is going to have. So pick him up as a stash see what happens

Correct. And Ty Johnson looked much cleaner than CJ, so it's not a stretch to assume they convert more often on 3rd downs creating more opportunities (hopefully).

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