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Ty Johnson 2019 Outlook

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https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-scouting-reports-on-must-add-waiver-wire-backs-ty-johnson-chase-edmonds-and-mark-walton/

"

Johnson can ab-so-lutely fly. And, at 5-10 and 208 pounds, he looks like a cannon ball exploding down the field. He battled injuries at Maryland but finished his four-year career with a huge 7.6 yards-per-carry average on 348 rushes.  

Right after the draft, I pegged Johnson as a potential "instant impact" Day 3 rookie and wrote he "was one of the most devastating home run hitters I watched among the running backs in the 2019 class." "

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16 minutes ago, ckbeav said:

I'm mostly worried about draft pedigree with him.  What did those other teams shy away from? 
 

That said, Aaron Jones was pick 182 in 2017. Ty was 186 in 2019.  

#freetyjohnson

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The problem nowadays with these handcuffs is even when the main RB goes down teams start to use multiple RBs instead of letting one guy dominate the backfield. Mix that in with the play calling and you might have a flex play/low end RB2. He’s still worth a grab through waivers you never know but I would temper expectations.

Edited by StevenSC400
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40 minutes ago, Finisher said:

Ty ran 4.30s at his pro day with 29 bench reps

KJ ran 4.55 with 11 reps

Ty 7.6 yards a carry in college, KJ 4.8 yards a carry

 

Why do people keep regurgitate this without context? 

 

2015 - 35 carries for 250 yards.  He has 2 carries for 87 yards vs Rutgers (who are never good but 4-8 this year).  In his next 6 games he has 27 carries and 1 run over 10 yards. Then he puts up 10 carries for 80 yards against he vaunted FCS Richmond Spiders.

 

2016 - his best year, 95 carries for 845 yards.  He carries 7 times for 204 yards vs Purdue which is as fluky as you can get.  Of course he pounds Rutgers (2-10) for 168 yards on 11 carries.  He lights up Indiana and MSU for 100+, with the latter being a semi-decent defense.  He shows up in the Bowl game against BC but the trend is big plays on limited carries.

 

2017 - 137 carries for 875 yards.  He has three 100 yard games. Those are against Texas, Towson, and  Minnesota.  Surprisingly doesn't beat up on Rutgers this year.

 

2018 - 66 carries for 506 yards. He lights up Rutgers on 9 carries for 132 yards, Minnesota on 11 carries for 123 yards, and Bowling Green on 12 carries for 124 yards.

 

In 43 games, he had 0 with 20 or more carries.  He had 3 with 15 or more carries.  He had 10 or more carries in only 18 of his college games.  The guy is a gadget player along the lines of Adrian Killins. He isn't shifty, and he isn't smooth. He isn't laterally quick, and at best he sort of weaves through a hole rather than cuts and explodes. Cool that he has great measurables.  All the people who throw up college stats make me wonder if they even watch college.  Was he on Doak Walker finalists list? Why was he supplanted by freshman McFardland as a senior if he was so good?  Oh right, 7.6 YPC is all that matters!

 

Hey, right now he is averaging 3.6 in the NFL, and has 1 run over 10 yards. He has 8 receptions for 39 yards which is good for 4.4 yards per reception.

Edited by Sternes
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Just take the gamble and splurge guys.
 

As I’ve mentioned before - in most competitive leagues most handcuffs are already owned. The chances of another opportunity like this are slim, not to mention the value of your top waiver drops as the weeks go by. 
 

If they do end up signing CJA or any equivalent RB, I’m pretty sure Ty would still take the majority of the carries seeing that it was CJA he supplanted to become KJ’s backup.

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29 minutes ago, FSJSteel said:

 

I mean, according to to my research (which isn't that extensive), Kerryon has an inch and a pound on him roughly. Doesn't seem like much of a difference. YPC is a garbage stat sure, especially in college comparisons, but using the 6th round pick argument is just as lame.

Everything else I agree with.

I think draft pedigree matters somewhat.  When you have KJ going 48th overall and Ty going in the 6th round there's clearly something that a lot of teams didn't see in Ty.  Obviously he will get his opportunity, and any starting RB is worth owning, but he hasn't done anything this season that leaps off the screen to say he's at the same level, let alone better than KJ, and the main issue is the coaching there has shown zero ability to take advantage of their RB's talents.  I don't expect that to change with Ty in there as well.  People were arguing whether or not KJ was gonna return rb2 value this season, I don't see how Ty is an upgrade at all.  But i'll be hoping I get him off the wire and hoping for the best in the end, but tempered expectations are important here.  It's not a knock on Ty as much as it is on Patricia and Bevell.

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18 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

Why do people keep regurgitate this without context? 

 

2015 - 35 carries for 250 yards.  He has 2 carries for 87 yards vs Rutgers (who are never good but 4-8 this year).  In his next 6 games he has 27 carries and 1 run over 10 yards. Then he puts up 10 carries for 80 yards against he vaunted FCS Richmond Spiders.

 

2016 - his best year, 95 carries for 845 yards.  He carries 7 times for 204 yards vs Purdue which is as fluky as you can get.  Of course he pounds Rutgers (2-10) for 168 yards on 11 carries.  He lights up Indiana and MSU for 100+, with the latter being a semi-decent defense.  He shows up in the Bowl game against BC but the trend is big plays on limited carries.

 

2017 - 137 carries for 875 yards.  He has three 100 yard games. Those are against Texas, Towson, and  Minnesota.  Surprisingly doesn't beat up on Rutgers this year.

 

2018 - 66 carries for 506 yards. He lights up Rutgers on 9 carries for 132 yards, Minnesota on 11 carries for 123 yards, and Bowling Green on 12 carries for 124 yards.

 

In 43 games, he had 0 with 20 or more carries.  He had 3 with 15 or more carries.  He had 10 or more carries in only 18 of his college games.  The guy is a gadget player along the lines of Adrian Killins. He isn't shifty, and he isn't smooth. He isn't laterally quick, and at best he sort of weaves through a hole rather than cuts and explodes. Cool that he has great measurables.  All the people who throw up college stats make me wonder if they even watch college.  Was he on Doak Walker finalists list? Why was he supplanted by freshman McFardland as a senior if he was so good?  Oh right, 7.6 YPC is all that matters!

 

Hey, right now he is averaging 3.6 in the NFL, and has 1 run over 10 yards. He has 8 receptions for 39 yards which is good for 4.4 yards per reception.

Never good for Rutgers is an understatement

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Highlights from college:

 

Guy is fast. A lot of this footage is not against great teams. But he's a rookie, still learning and is definitely fast. I think the upside and volume (I know he likely wont get the same kind of volume as Kerryon - but there's still usable volume here) are worth a #1 ww pick.

 

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Has anyone mentioned that the Lions traded Quandre Diggs to Seattle this afternoon for a 5th round pick? It's an odd trade considering he was their starting safety and one of the better players on that defense.

I think that pick is going to Miami for Kenyan Drake. Seems like there's a lot of smoke and I wouldn't be shocked if we see that happen tomorrow. 

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6 minutes ago, OrangeAggie said:

Has anyone mentioned that the Lions traded Quandre Diggs to Seattle this afternoon for a 5th round pick? It's an odd trade considering he was their starting safety and one of the better players on that defense.

I think that pick is going to Miami for Kenyan Drake. Seems like there's a lot of smoke and I wouldn't be shocked if we see that happen tomorrow. 


If Detroit wasn’t already calling about Drake then they should be now.

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Hard to determine what DET is gonna do.  Even if DET rolls with Ty, hard to gauge his value & usage.

 

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2 hours ago, OrangeAggie said:

Has anyone mentioned that the Lions traded Quandre Diggs to Seattle this afternoon for a 5th round pick? It's an odd trade considering he was their starting safety and one of the better players on that defense.

I think that pick is going to Miami for Kenyan Drake. Seems like there's a lot of smoke and I wouldn't be shocked if we see that happen tomorrow. 

Has more of a feeling of a team ready to tank then trade for a RB.   A solid starting safety is much more important to a team then a middling RB.

Edited by youngrice

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7 hours ago, chargahs said:

you’re right, but it’s not about the carries, it’s about the snaps.

Of course it's about the carries, I don't get points for snaps. He got more of those anyway, drop your bizarre argument.

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10 hours ago, TheINC said:

Ty is shorter, smaller, and a 6th round pick, and YPC is a garbage stat, we all know this.  If he was so much better than KJ then why didn't he a) get drafted higher or grade out as a starting calibre RB, and b) steal the job from KJ since he's clearly so much better according to you?  The guy is just another plug RB, sure he'll get opportunities now, but really if you're expecting him to even match KJ's production you're in for a disappointment. Don't forget who calls the plays on this team.  I'm guessing you really haven't been watching Lions games this season.

1 inch shorter. 3 lbs lighter. I gain three pounds looking at food. 

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5 hours ago, youngrice said:

Has more of a feeling of a team ready to tank then trade for a RB.   A solid starting safety is much more important to a team then a middling RB.

 

These are guys cut from the patriots cloth. Hes not a great safety and perhaps doesnt fit their scheme. Felt like a trade  of opportunity. Getting a pick for a guy they see as easily replaceable

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Alright I’m officially on this train now. Can’t say I’m particularly confident. I really just see it as a one week play vs the Giants, but perhaps it will be more than that. Even in the best case scenario where they roll with Ty ROS in a 70/30 or 60/40 split, I don’t see how he does any better than very bottom-end RB2 given what Kerryon was doing.  Sure that’s nice to get off waivers, and perhaps pretty valuable in deeper leagues, but it’s hard to envision a league-winner here. And I think the chance that Ty leads this backfield ROS is pretty slim. Hope I’m wrong!

Edited by gufomel

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Officially an owner in 1 of my leagues...  Don't really know what I'm signing up for here, but fingers crossed this dude produces!

I'd imagine if Detroit made a move for Kenyan Drake - TJ would be immediately droppable?

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Zenner just got released by the Saints. Wouldn’t be shocked if Lions pick him back up 

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22 minutes ago, euphonicjamz said:

Officially an owner in 1 of my leagues...  Don't really know what I'm signing up for here, but fingers crossed this dude produces!

I'd imagine if Detroit made a move for Kenyan Drake - TJ would be immediately droppable?

Who's TJ? TY? If TY I'd hold through the game and see

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5 minutes ago, ss3walkman said:

Zenner just got released by the Saints. Wouldn’t be shocked if Lions pick him back up 

 

Maybe....Gotta wonder if CJ or Zenner are brought back.

I'd be aiming a bit higher if I were the Lions though as I don't think CJ or Zenner really do much to help them. Drake might be a good option.  I'd personally be on the horn with Seattle regarding Penny or the Patriots regarding Damien Harris.  I could see the Pats maybe being willing to part with Harris to get back the 2nd rounder they just traded to Atlanta....And Harris would be a guy that could become a true feature RB for the Lions.  Not to mention Patricia might have a nice in there to make a deal.

Some guy blew 90% of his free agent budget on Ty this morning in my league.  I just don't see it....No way the Lions don't do something that will further muddy the waters.

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19 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

 

Maybe....Gotta wonder if CJ or Zenner are brought back.

I'd be aiming a bit higher if I were the Lions though as I don't think CJ or Zenner really do much to help them. Drake might be a good option.  I'd personally be on the horn with Seattle regarding Penny or the Patriots regarding Damien Harris.  I could see the Pats maybe being willing to part with Harris to get back the 2nd rounder they just traded to Atlanta....And Harris would be a guy that could become a true feature RB for the Lions.  Not to mention Patricia might have a nice in there to make a deal.

Some guy blew 90% of his free agent budget on Ty this morning in my league.  I just don't see it....No way the Lions don't do something that will further muddy the waters.

I dont think they need to get any muddier. JD being there muddies the waters enough. 

 

 

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8 hours ago, youngrice said:

Has more of a feeling of a team ready to tank then trade for a RB.   A solid starting safety is much more important to a team then a middling RB.

Agree, the team can't realistically look at being 3 games back of the Vikes and Seahawks in the wild card chase and see themselves as legit contenders.  So wasting draft capital on trading for Drake (or even worse MG3) would be dumb as would paying Ajayi and burning cap space to still not make the playoffs.  Sure they might pull a Cardinals and sign some cheap JAG veteran like Alf Morris but otherwise I think Ty gets a shot.  Could provide Zac Stacy 2013 level stats with his fresh legs and lack of a feature back ahead of him. 

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