kane

Nikola Vucevic 2019-2020 Outlook

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Vucevic just had a memorable season,set a multiple career-high in pts,rebs,asts,PER and earned his first nba all-star selection.

 

Magic remain nearly the same squad in the new season,Can Vooch repeat the last season performance?

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2 hours ago, kane said:

Vucevic just had a memorable season,set a multiple career-high in pts,rebs,asts,PER and earned his first nba all-star selection.

 

Magic remain nearly the same squad in the new season,Can Vooch repeat the last season performance?

 

If he is healthy, I don’t see why not - same system and essentially same roster.

His numbers wont likely spike up or down, but as long as he maintains some effort on D then he’s a lock for 19/10/3 with 1-1-1 + being above average in the 3 efficiency cats

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Last season I was lucky I got him as a 44th pick, but unfortunately he had bad PO schedule and I lost first week when Durant was injured and Vucevic played only 2 games. This season I think he can't repeat last season's performance, but he is solid 3rd round pick. Though I think many of us target him in 2nd round.

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39 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

"I am just entering my prime"  

https://www.nba.com/magic/vucevic-feels-he-just-now-entering-his-prime-20190429

 

Yes, I think a repeat is more than likely.  It's the health that's the issue.  If not he's a solid first rounder.  

Agree.  There's no reason that he can't repeat.  People will say last season was "an outlier" but the reality is that he's only 28 and most men don't enter their physical peak until their late twenties/early thirties.  Ball players enter their peak a little earlier than that, but the point is that he may be entering a plateau in his career, but he's not falling off a cliff.  There was a clear progression of improvement prior to this year, if you discount the seasons lost to injury.  I don't think he can play any better but there's no reason to think he will play much worse.  He also got better as the season progressed and went 9th over the last two months.  Orlando has a s--- schedule and he is prone to minor injuries so I'd downgrade him half a round for that in H2H.  For that reason, I would for sure pick guys like Drummond and Stifle over him in H2H.  I have him 12th in roto and 15th in H2H. 

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Interesting, he is now highly appreciated after good season. Previous years I read here in RW forum how many people didn't recommend to draft him.

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1 minute ago, apatas said:

Interesting, he is now highly appreciated after good season. Previous years I read here in RW forum how many people didn't recommend to draft him.

 

Maybe because of avg blocks and transfer rumours...

 

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3 minutes ago, apatas said:

Interesting, he is now highly appreciated after good season. Previous years I read here in RW forum how many people didn't recommend to draft him.

Maybe they're two different groups of people....

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15 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Maybe they're two different groups of people....

OK, I found it from Nikola Vucevic 2018-19 season outlook. Stifle Tower says at 2nd October 2018: One thing I haven’t seen brought up is that in addition to being a 16/10/1/1/1 player he also has the potential for 3 APG making him a multicat gem. I wouldn’t hesitate taking him in the 5th round of snake or for $25+ in auction.  

And I was too optimistic and drafted him in 4th round...

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6 minutes ago, apatas said:

OK, I found it from Nikola Vucevic 2018-19 season outlook. Stifle Tower says at 2nd October 2018: One thing I haven’t seen brought up is that in addition to being a 16/10/1/1/1 player he also has the potential for 3 APG making him a multicat gem. I wouldn’t hesitate taking him in the 5th round of snake or for $25+ in auction.  

And I was too optimistic and drafted him in 4th round...

Lol....You're a ******** gem honestly.  Don't quit being you.  I had more stock in Vuc than anyone last year and was pushing him harder than anyone.  And made money off him. 

 

So you cherry pick one quote where I said "I wouldn't hesitate taking him in the 5th" eg I would be willing to take him earlier but the 5th is where I'd be able to take him to trump others.  If you recall people were talking about taking him in the 6th, so that's why I said I would take him in the 5th.  I guess I should have bid against no one but myself...taken him in the third when I could have gotten him in the 5th...just to prove a point to you in case you brought it up a year later.

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, apatas said:

OK, I found it from Nikola Vucevic 2018-19 season outlook. Stifle Tower says at 2nd October 2018: One thing I haven’t seen brought up is that in addition to being a 16/10/1/1/1 player he also has the potential for 3 APG making him a multicat gem. I wouldn’t hesitate taking him in the 5th round of snake or for $25+ in auction.  

And I was too optimistic and drafted him in 4th round...

Typically I try to be charitable to the posters here, but I'm tired of your strawman bull****.

 

I didn't see anywhere in the 2018-2019  forum where you said you would take him in the 4th round and I or anyone else said that was too optimistic.

 

Here's some other quotes from me you conveniently left out:

I hear you.  For me risk and uncertainty are two different things.  Although he might be traded he’s good enough that I assume he would be a starting center for any team he lands on particularly given that their intention would be for me to start otherwise they wouldn’t have traded for him.  For all we know he could have more value with a better point guard passing to him, although that’s unlikely.  So despite there being uncertainty I don’t think there is a high level of risk.

I do almost exclusively auctions and I have him in almost every league that has drafted thus far.

I was paying in the mid twenties bc people in my leagues read this forum and said they would upbid me lol.  But even $30  is a steal imo.  I don't think anyone can upbid me high enough unless they're willing to risk going into absurdity.

I know there are sexier names that were drafted but drafting him for under $20 is going to be one of the best values for big men this year.  I’ll forgive the people who don’t live near Orlando but he isn’t a player whose value is inflated due to being on a bad team.  He’s a damn good basketball player. 

 

If you haven’t actually watched him play, Vuc is probably safe regardless of where he ends the season.  He’s strong enough that these stretch 5 types centers just get bullied by him in the low post.  He’s skilled enough and has enough range that he can take you away from the post.  He’s a good passer and rebounder. The only thing is that he doesn’t have the hops to get a lot of blocks largely a fuction of his weight.   But offensively he basically has no weakness and no matter goes he will eat.  

 

BTW show me one post you made about him prior to October 31st saying anything about him.  

   

Edited by StifleTower2

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I know this might be surprising to some people but it’s not surprising to me.  Vuc and Embiid are fairly close in offensive ability at this point in their careers.  Of course Embiid has more upside and is a better defender.  As someone who lives near Orlando I almost hope Vuc gets gets traded so he can showcase his talents away from this joke of a front office and his career won’t wither away into obscurity, 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Typically I try to be charitable to the posters here, but I'm tired of your strawman bull****.

 

I didn't see anywhere in the 2018-2019  forum where you said you would take him in the 4th round and I or anyone else said that was too optimistic.

 

Here's some other quotes from me you conveniently left out:

I hear you.  For me risk and uncertainty are two different things.  Although he might be traded he’s good enough that I assume he would be a starting center for any team he lands on particularly given that their intention would be for me to start otherwise they wouldn’t have traded for him.  For all we know he could have more value with a better point guard passing to him, although that’s unlikely.  So despite there being uncertainty I don’t think there is a high level of risk.

 

   

No, I didn't say anything about Vucevic in last season. But I have very good memory, believe me. I just remember that in my own rank Vuc was higher than mostly recommended in RW forum. At previous year (before last season, it means 2017-18) Vuc finished as 27th player by BBM ranking. And I was surprised people talk about him as possible TOP50 player and not TOP30. I ranked him somewhere near 30th spot and was happy that he was available at 44th. Then I thought; he was available because he was not highly recommended in RW forum. Now I just went to check and confirm that I was right. Your quote I brought only because you said: Maybe they're two different groups of people.... But now I checked and read that most people didn't consider him as a TOP30 player, What you really did in last season drafts, I don't know, I believe you targeted him. Only thing what I wanted to say that comments about Vucevic 2018/19 and 2019/2o outlook are completely different. I repeat; Stifle Tower comment was just one example. I found it and quoted. I would have been quoted some other people not you. Just believe me: this is really different this year and previous season. Why suddenly now everybody believes on him and year ago almost nobody?

Edited by apatas

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7 minutes ago, apatas said:

No, I didn't say anything about Vucevic in last season. But I have very good memory, believe me. I just remember that in my own rank Vuc was higher than mostly recommended in RW forum. At previous year (before last season, it means 2017-18) Vuc finished as 27th player by BBM ranking. And I was surprised people talk about him as possible TOP50 player and not TOP30. I ranked him somewhere near 30th spot and was happy that he was available at 44th. Then I thought; he was available because he was not highly recommended in RW forum. Now I just went to check and confirm that I was right. Your quote I brought only because you said: Maybe they're two different groups of people.... But now I checked and read that most people didn't consider him as a TOP30 player, What you really did in last season drafts, I don't know, I believe you targeted him. Only thing what I wanted to say that comments about Vucevic 2018/19 and 2019/2o outlook are completely different. I repeat; Stifle Tower comment was just one example. I found it and quoted. I would have been quoted some other people not you. Just believe me: this is really different this year and previous season. Why suddenly now everybody believes on him and year ago almost nobody?

Because last year he put up first round value and precious years 27th at best.  Also, most people in fantasy are lazy and reactive.  They  either go off the previous years numbers and/or a source they trust. 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Because last year he put up first round value and precious years 27th at best.  Also, most people in fantasy are lazy and reactive.  They  either go off the previous years numbers and/or a source they trust. 

OK, but for me he is the same player what he was. I ranked him 30th last season and rank him again near 30th. Nothing changed. Danny Green finished also one season at TOP25 but for me he has always been 7th-8th round player. I never considered him higher. One season is too short sample. Last four seasons Vuc has finished: 27th, 48th, 27th, 11th. What is average? 28th is average. That is his rank.

Edited by apatas
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OK, sorry for this discussion, but one thing more: why I never draft rookies in early rounds? Because I don't have statistical sample. I just can't draft a player who has not played in NBA. Of course I can draft rookies in late rounds, Because in late rounds you can take a risk. But not in early rounds. In early rounds I never draft players by their ceiling. Only by their floor. Zero risk.

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6 minutes ago, apatas said:

OK, sorry for this discussion, but one thing more: why I never draft rookies in early rounds? Because I don't have statistical sample. I just can't draft a player who has not played in NBA. Of course I can draft rookies in late rounds, Because in late rounds you can take a risk. But not in early rounds. In early rounds I never draft players by their ceiling. Only by their floor. Zero risk.

I agree on rookies generally. 

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1 hour ago, apatas said:

OK, but for me he is the same player what he was. I ranked him 30th last season and rank him again near 30th. Nothing changed. Danny Green finished also one season at TOP25 but for me he has always been 7th-8th round player. I never considered him higher. One season is too short sample. Last four seasons Vuc has finished: 27th, 48th, 27th, 11th. What is average? 28th is average. That is his rank.

 

Interesting.  So I'm assuming you think his stats go down and he's ranked around 30th this year?  Are there any categories in particular that you think will drop?  

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1 hour ago, apatas said:

OK, I found it from Nikola Vucevic 2018-19 season outlook. Stifle Tower says at 2nd October 2018: One thing I haven’t seen brought up is that in addition to being a 16/10/1/1/1 player he also has the potential for 3 APG making him a multicat gem. I wouldn’t hesitate taking him in the 5th round of snake or for $25+ in auction.  

And I was too optimistic and drafted him in 4th round...

 

Lol did you read the thread from last season? Its basically just Stifle arguing how great Vuc was vs. the rest of the forum for the entire year.

 

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4 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Interesting.  So I'm assuming you think his stats go down and he's ranked around 30th this year?  Are there any categories in particular that you think will drop?  

I compared Vucevic 2017/18 and 2018/19. Last season he added 4,3 points, 2,8 rebounds and 4,3 FG%. Other stats were similar. Was it expected last season that Vuc can improve points, rebs and FG% so much? Hardly it was expected. Now if he drops again to the 2017/18 level we again don't expect it. But anything is possible.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, jsquints said:

 

Lol did you read the thread from last season? Its basically just Stifle arguing how great Vuc was vs. the rest of the forum for the entire year.

 

OK, I just found sample quote, I agree with him and you, But if he argued with rest of the forum, it means that most of RW members still were wrong. My point was not to argue with Stifle Tower, sorry, but to show that last season most people had low expectations and this season suddenly everybody has high expectations. Why people change their mind so quickly?

Edited by apatas
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7 minutes ago, apatas said:

 to show that last season most people had low expectations and this season suddenly everybody has high expectations.

People generally have knee jerk reactions to things.  One reason why some people overdraft rookies is bc they are new.  They do well in summer league?  Oh!  They rise a few rounds.  A minor knee issue? Undraftable.  Narratives frame their drafts. Almost no one on these forums think mathematically.  So now the story of Vucevic has changed for them.  He’s no longer a decent but injury prone center who can’t lead his team to the playoffs.  Now he has first round potential and can make the playoffs.  The math hasn’t changed that much but the narrative has changed dramatically.

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Posted (edited)

OK, I said my last words about this topic, maybe I comment later but not anymore about expectations. Problem is that every year some players are hyped. Vucevic is not hyped, he have just better expectations. I will not try to find this quote but I remember well as in last season one RW forum member said: "My wet dream is to have Jarrett Allen and John Collins both in my team." And he was ready to draft them in 3rd and 4th round, If he would have been done so, he would have been failed completely. That is the reason why I rank every year all hyped players about 2 rounds lower than people in forum. I don't believe in hype and I don't understand why opinions change so quickly. The same about Danny Green, After his good season many people drafted him in 3rd or 4th round, And then, season has started yet, one month passed and the same people complain:"Oh, this dude is killing me!" That I don't like in RW forum...

Edited by apatas
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