Nikola Vucevic 2019-2020 Outlook

[StifleTower2 2,523]

48 minutes ago, apatas said:

OK, I said my last words about this topic, maybe I comment later but not anymore about expectations. Problem is that every year some players are hyped. Vucevic is not hyped, he have just better expectations. I will not try to find this quote but I remember well as in last season one RW forum member said: "My wet dream is to have Jarrett Allen and John Collins both in my team." And he was ready to draft them in 3rd and 4th round, If he would have been done so, he would have been failed completely. That is the reason why I rank every year all hyped players about 2 rounds lower than people in forum. I don't believe in hype and I don't understand why opinions change so quickly. The same about Danny Green, After his good season many people drafted him in 3rd or 4th round, And then, season has started yet, one month passed and the same people complain:"Oh, this dude is killing me!" That I don't like in RW forum...

The thing that you have to keep in mind is that about one third of Rotoworld are Gallagher shills, or otherwise a lackey for some other writer.  Gallagher’s entire Schtick is to overhype youth and upside under the premise that if it doesn’t work out you can simply drop him to the wire and pick up the next hot FA.  He also falsely equates youth to health and is absurdly risk averse re injuries. Therefore, he’s absurdly risk averse to anyone over thirty, which produces such quotes as “I would take Dejounte Murray over  Kyrie.”  Then he has other people on his podcasts who disagree and are setup as foils to him.  It’s not real life. It’s staged, you can see the staged elements if you’ve ever worked in production, or been a writer. Most of the Gallagher shills in these forums are  inexperienced and have the cockiness of inexperience behind them.  Dunning-Kruger effect, I think it’s called.  They’re winning their ONE $50 league following an expert’s advice.  So then they get cocky.  What they don’t understand is that there are people out there who are crushing higher stakes than them and in multiple leagues who either view Gallagher as a novelty (nothing more) or outright disagree with him.  They’re ignorant of the big beautiful world of fantasy out there bc they’ve been crushing their $50 league for so long. And because they’re so bold and blissfully ignorant, you’re going to remember them. 

 

There are more experienced posters, but anyone with experience is going to be more nuanced so their opinions may not stand out as much. 

[Quazza 1,488]

12 hours ago, apatas said:

Last season I was lucky I got him as a 44th pick, but unfortunately he had bad PO schedule and I lost first week when Durant was injured and Vucevic played only 2 games. This season I think he can't repeat last season's performance, but he is solid 3rd round pick. Though I think many of us target him in 2nd round.

 

He finished top 10 in 9 cat last year. How could he possibly be a "solid 3rd rounder " ?

[apatas 356]

13 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

 

It’s not real life. It’s staged, you can see the staged elements if you’ve ever worked in production, or been a writer.

I am a sports journalist. But real life sports, not fantasy. I have worked at Olympic Games, football (soccer) World Cup etc.

Edited August 25 by apatas

[Mikhov 542]

Something did change though - which coincides with his spike in production: Steve Clifford.

Vogel wanted to play through Fournier and Gordon which is why the former had a career year and Aaron got force-fed 2 seasons ago, when it was obvious that the offense looked a lot better running through Vuc, who showed signs of being a hub (making the right reads) when given the opportunity.

Clifford did the right thing IMO by recognizing and implementing this. Credit to the players for buying in and everyone was rewarded when they made the playoffs. 

Assuming health (and his own effort), this is likely the last season most leagues will get Vuc past the second in a snake draft.

I personally want him after AD, KAT and Jok are off the board, as the early/midround multicat OoP big men tier (marc, dray, horf etc) don’t have the scoring, rebounding or all of the efficiency cats above average - making Vooch a gem.

Edited August 25 by Mikhov

[StifleTower2 2,523]

25 minutes ago, apatas said:

I am a sports journalist. But real life sports, not fantasy. I have worked at Olympic Games, football (soccer) World Cup etc.

I’m referring to Gallagher’s show being staged not basketball in general.  It’s a schtick to sell clicks.  That’s it.  The people who take it seriously are his shills. 

[Jake the snake 1,744]

On 8/25/2019 at 9:47 PM, apatas said:

OK, but for me he is the same player what he was. I ranked him 30th last season and rank him again near 30th. Nothing changed. Danny Green finished also one season at TOP25 but for me he has always been 7th-8th round player. I never considered him higher. One season is too short sample. Last four seasons Vuc has finished: 27th, 48th, 27th, 11th. What is average? 28th is average. That is his rank.

I don't think it's a one season sample size as much as you think. He really started to take off the previous season. Pre-All-Star 2017/18 he was ranked 15th on per game value. He was unreal that season, but fell away due to injuries and tanking post-all-star.

On 8/26/2019 at 12:45 AM, Mikhov said:

Something did change though - which coincides with his spike in production: Steve Clifford.

Vogel wanted to play through Fournier and Gordon which is why the former had a career year and Aaron got force-fed 2 seasons ago, when it was obvious that the offense looked a lot better running through Vuc, who showed signs of being a hub (making the right reads) when given the opportunity.

Clifford did the right thing IMO by recognizing and implementing this. Credit to the players for buying in and everyone was rewarded when they made the playoffs. 

Assuming health (and his own effort), this is likely the last season most leagues will get Vuc past the second in a snake draft.

I personally want him after AD, KAT and Jok are off the board, as the early/midround multicat OoP big men tier (marc, dray, horf etc) don’t have the scoring, rebounding or all of the efficiency cats above average - making Vooch a gem.

This is spot on IMO. Vuce is a Top10 pick for me, right around where Embiid is ranked. I expect the Magic to be in the playoffs again and a big season from Vuce. I think they're going to shift their offense a little more to involve Gordon this season, probably making DJA and Fournier very much catch and shoot guys running everything through Vuce and Gordon. Ross as 6th man, Isaac as their 3-and-D wing. Isaac's offensive development is a big part of their ceiling this season. If he can get more consistent at shooting they become a really nice team.

The problem was with Gordon in 16/17 and 17/18 when Vogel tried to make Gordon his PG13 was he wasn't ready for the role, he was still growing as a player and learning how to run an offense. It was too much too soon. Judging on the end of last season and the playoffs Gordon looks ready to take the step into that role and for him and Vuce Mane to run their offense. I predict a big year for both IRL and fantasy. Clifford is a good coach and has some nice pieces to work with there. Continuity of their squad will be a big factor too. They've been a joke of a franchise for a long time, but things are looking up for them right now and credit to Clifford and even to their front office for FINALLY making some good decisions.

[apatas 356]

1 hour ago, Jake the snake said:

I don't think it's a one season sample size as much as you think. He really started to take off the previous season. Pre-All-Star 2017/18 he was ranked 15th on per game value. He was unreal that season, but fell away due to injuries and tanking post-all-star.

This is spot on IMO. Vuce is a Top10 pick for me, right around where Embiid is ranked. I expect the Magic to be in the playoffs again and a big season from Vuce. I think they're going to shift their offense a little more to involve Gordon this season, probably making DJA and Fournier very much catch and shoot guys running everything through Vuce and Gordon. Ross as 6th man, Isaac as their 3-and-D wing. Isaac's offensive development is a big part of their ceiling this season. If he can get more consistent at shooting they become a really nice team.

The problem was with Gordon in 16/17 and 17/18 when Vogel tried to make Gordon his PG13 was he wasn't ready for the role, he was still growing as a player and learning how to run an offense. It was too much too soon. Judging on the end of last season and the playoffs Gordon looks ready to take the step into that role and for him and Vuce Mane to run their offense. I predict a big year for both IRL and fantasy. Clifford is a good coach and has some nice pieces to work with there. Continuity of their squad will be a big factor too. They've been a joke of a franchise for a long time, but things are looking up for them right now and credit to Clifford and even to their front office for FINALLY making some good decisions.

After all explanations here I probably move Vucevic up in my ranking. Also I noticed that after first round it is very difficult to find any players who certainly belong to TOP20. For example I doubt that Gobert, Vucevic, Butler or Kemba belongs to TOP20, but they belong because there are not any other 20 players which could be better than them.

[Purple Hippo 1,254]

He’s still undervalued after all these years and I’ll be heavily targeting him this season.

What do you guys think is a fair price for him in a roto auction draft? Who are some good complementary players to build a team with him in auction?

[StifleTower2 2,523]

1 hour ago, Purple Hippo said:

He’s still undervalued after all these years and I’ll be heavily targeting him this season.

What do you guys think is a fair price for him in a roto auction draft? Who are some good complementary players to build a team with him in auction?

1) $39

2) anyone 

[Pyschout 186]

3 hours ago, apatas said:

After all explanations here I probably move Vucevic up in my ranking. Also I noticed that after first round it is very difficult to find any players who certainly belong to TOP20. For example I doubt that Gobert, Vucevic, Butler or Kemba belongs to TOP20, but they belong because there are not any other 20 players which could be better than them.

This SOUNDS dumb, but you're very right.  It's like inverse of GOAT player rankings conversation, where everyone says someone is "top ten", but then you ask them to name names and you find out there's like 13-14 people that are (or, more accurately, could be) in their top ten.
There's a lot of players this year where it feels like no way should I be taking them in here at 12, or 13, or 15.  But then it's like, who else are you gonna take?  Who else is better?  So you take them.

[Jake the snake 1,744]

On 8/27/2019 at 10:27 AM, Jake the snake said:

FWIW, here is my top 15 for roto 9-cat:

1. Curry          2. Towns        3. Harden      4. Davis     5. Giannis     6. Lillard     7. Jokic     8. George     
9. Vucevic     10. Embiid     11. James     12. Beal      13. Butler     14. Leonard     15. Holiday [EDITED the last two for clarification purposes]

Top 5 are the elites (which means #5 is probably the best value pick this year - although Giannis FTs hurt). 6-10 is pretty even and then I see 11-14 as pretty even too.

 

46 minutes ago, Pyschout said:

This SOUNDS dumb, but you're very right.  It's like inverse of GOAT player rankings conversation, where everyone says someone is "top ten", but then you ask them to name names and you find out there's like 13-14 people that are (or, more accurately, could be) in their top ten.
There's a lot of players this year where it feels like no way should I be taking them in here at 12, or 13, or 15.  But then it's like, who else are you gonna take?  Who else is better?  So you take them.

I'm the namer of names...

Edited August 28 by Jake the snake

[jay_00 83]

Anyone else think that Isaac's emergence might actually hurt Vucevic's production? Plus Bamba is also looking good this preseason too. Also its fair to note that Vucevic has a tendency to follow up a good season with a bad season, for all 8 years of his career so far. Obviously hes in his prime now, so that could change. Still, tendencies are tendencies. Idk, im starting to not like him as much as i did last week considering all this.

[Code of Hammurabi 4,285]

Just now, jay_00 said:

Anyone else think that Isaac's emergence might actually hurt Vucevic's production? Plus Bamba is also looking good this preseason too. Also its fair to note that Vucevic has a tendency to follow up a good season with a bad season, for all 8 years of his career so far. Obviously hes in his prime now, so that could change. Still, tendencies are tendencies. Idk, im starting to not like him as much as i did last week considering all this.

I have no worries or doubts he meets or comes within 95% of last years numbers

[StifleTower2 2,523]

1 minute ago, jay_00 said:

Anyone else think that Isaac's emergence might actually hurt Vucevic's production? Plus Bamba is also looking good this preseason too. Also its fair to note that Vucevic has a tendency to follow up a good season with a bad season, for all 8 years of his career so far. Obviously hes in his prime now, so that could change. Still, tendencies are tendencies. Idk, im starting to not like him as much as i did last week considering all this.

I think a little.  He was a great value last year due to being a top 15 guy who you could get at a discount. If he starts being a top 15 pick then you’re getting him at value.  It’s not just Bamba and Isaac.  It’s also Gordon who hasn’t reached his ceiling.  I think Vuc will basically do what he did last year or a little less.  But I don’t think he will do better, I think top 15 is basically his ceiling.  

[jay_00 83]

7 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I think a little.  He was a great value last year due to being a top 15 guy who you could get at a discount. If he starts being a top 15 pick then you’re getting him at value.  It’s not just Bamba and Isaac.  It’s also Gordon who hasn’t reached his ceiling.  I think Vuc will basically do what he did last year or a little less.  But I don’t think he will do better, I think top 15 is basically his ceiling.  

Yup, thats my thinking too. I wouldve mentioned Gordon, but the guy is just so inconsistent at times. Still, thats enough things going against Vucevic there to keep him from repeating his performance. Someone else mentioned he could put up 19/10/3/1/1/1 with his typical shooting numbers. Thats realistic and solid, but this will certainly drop him out of top 15, possibly top 20. His strongest 3 cats were ppg, rebs, and fg%, (the volume of less points will probably lower his fg% value). Taking a hit in those areas will cost him. Those projections are solid still, but im not paying damn near $40 in auction for that.

[Quazza 1,488]

Watched the game today as a Vuc owner. Gotta keep telling myself "it's only pre season " 

 

That said man, Isaac is legit. He has future DPOTY written all over him if he works hard enough 

[crocp 476]

In many cases Vuc is being drafted 2 spots before Ayton....would you guys agree that is the correct order?

I feel Ayton might have more to prove, but Vuc was a gem last year!

[StifleTower2 2,523]

1 hour ago, crocp said:

In many cases Vuc is being drafted 2 spots before Ayton....would you guys agree that is the correct order?

I feel Ayton might have more to prove, but Vuc was a gem last year!

I think Vuc is capped but Ayton will continue to improve.  That being said, still think Vuc will have a points, threes, assists, and FT advantage.  Ayton’s advantage will be FG only imo. Vuc will be top 15, Ayton 25.

[Code of Hammurabi 4,285]

14 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I think Vuc is capped but Ayton will continue to improve.  That being said, still think Vuc will have a points, threes, assists, and FT advantage.  Ayton’s advantage will be FG only imo. Vuc will be top 15, Ayton 25.

I would also project that Ayton's blocks will be better than Vooch. I'd say its close to a toss up, with an ever so slight advantage to Vooch. 

[chimera 37]

Colour me a little concerned.  He seems to be the most "consistent" big outside the top 10 but here are my arguments against Vuce repeating his season last year:

1) He signed 4 for 100 in July.  So last year he was playing for a contract.

2) The emergence of Aaron Gordon and to a lesser extent Isaac and Mo.  I think Aaron Gordon will subplant him as the Magic's number 1 guy this season.

3) He played so poorly in the post season last year.  Like 36% over 5 games bad.  I haven't processed how this translates to fantasy but for comparison Horford got a better contract and he's 33 while Vuc is in his prime.  So either he gave the magic a discount and is gonna prove it or the Magic know he's not their main guy.  I'm thinking he's the latter.

[StifleTower2 2,523]

14 minutes ago, chimera said:

Colour me a little concerned.  He seems to be the most "consistent" big outside the top 10 but here are my arguments against Vuce repeating his season last year:

1) He signed 4 for 100 in July.  So last year he was playing for a contract.

2) The emergence of Aaron Gordon and to a lesser extent Isaac and Mo.  I think Aaron Gordon will subplant him as the Magic's number 1 guy this season.

3) He played so poorly in the post season last year.  Like 36% over 5 games bad.  I haven't processed how this translates to fantasy but for comparison Horford got a better contract and he's 33 while Vuc is in his prime.  So either he gave the magic a discount and is gonna prove it or the Magic know he's not their main guy.  I'm thinking he's the latter.

I don’t want to sound repetitive. But I partially agree.  Last year was the year to get a top 15 guy for top 50 money.  This year you’re hoping just to break even.  This year it’s going to be a different guy.  Next year yet another one.  

[PhillyBoy 348]

I have a feeling there will be a lot of unhappy vuc owners this season. 

[Quazza 1,488]

I love that the magic got hammered last game where he didn't play 

 

No Vuc no Magic 

[Kriggly 261]

Everyone was saying the same thing last year.  We kept touting that he was putting up amazing value, and it was a combination of "he'll come back down to earth", "Bamba has all the potential" and "The Magic will tank and trade him."  It's not like he's going to surprise you with better value vs his ADP, but it's completely tenable that in the Magic system and with them being a playoff team he's going to be just as good this year.  They didn't just sign him to a long term deal to trade him a few months later.  

[Pirate 730]

10 hours ago, Kriggly said:

Everyone was saying the same thing last year.  We kept touting that he was putting up amazing value, and it was a combination of "he'll come back down to earth", "Bamba has all the potential" and "The Magic will tank and trade him."  It's not like he's going to surprise you with better value vs his ADP, but it's completely tenable that in the Magic system and with them being a playoff team he's going to be just as good this year.  They didn't just sign him to a long term deal to trade him a few months later.  

 

Agreed. If they didn’t trade him last season which imo they shoulda have then they are all in on him.