MysticPeak

Al Horford 2019-2020 Outlook

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I didn't want to start off a thread like this (I'm a horrible thread starter), but since there's not a thread dedicated to him yet, f* it -- I'll f*ing do it.

Can you predict his statline? Will he be able to maintain his assist numbers (yes, yes Brad Stevens system)? We know he's going to start off the season at 4, but I see him backing up Embiid come January for some reason. It just seems like he's no longer at the age where he can keep up with the young 4's at the 4 position. It just doesn't seem sustainable to play them as Twin Towers together.

Does 10/6/3/.8/.9/1.5 triples on 52%/80%ft sound fair to everyone? I like him and I want to draft him, but I don't know if there'll be a huge dropoff in production this season.

Some things to note:

Horford's current Yahoo rank is: 59, but his ADP is 63.2 (unless they updated it recently)

He just turned 33, and just in case if you didn't know, he's now with the Sixers. 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, MysticPeak said:

I didn't want to start off a thread like this (I'm a horrible thread starter), but since there's not a thread dedicated to him yet, f* it -- I'll f*ing do it.

Can you predict his statline? Will he be able to maintain his assist numbers (yes, yes Brad Stevens system)? We know he's going to start off the season at 4, but I see him backing up Embiid come January for some reason. It just seems like he's no longer at the age where he can keep up with the young 4's at the 4 position. It just doesn't seem sustainable to play them as Twin Towers together.

Does 10/6/3/.8/.9/1.5 triples on 52%/80%ft sound fair to everyone? I like him and I want to draft him, but I don't know if there'll be a huge dropoff in production this season.

Some things to note:

Horford's current Yahoo rank is: 59, but his ADP is 63.2 (unless they updated it recently)

He just turned 33, and just in case if you didn't know, he's now with the Sixers. 

 

 

Fair, but undervaluing him a bit.  12/6/3 1.2 blocks, 1.2 3s, 8 steals.  52%/82%.  Sub 1.5 TO.  Should be top 40.  

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I would avoid.  I owned him 2 seasons ago and he was extremely frustrating.  He's on a stacked sixers team.  I don't see him putting up anything special

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Posted (edited)

I predict relatively consistent numbers from his past with a slight drop off, maybe 80%. Lots and lots of rest, though... Philly can easily sit a different player every game if they want and still likely be a top 2 seed. 

Edited by johnval1362

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6 hours ago, Fantasyscrub said:

I would avoid.  I owned him 2 seasons ago and he was extremely frustrating.  He's on a stacked sixers team.  I don't see him putting up anything special

Interesting. I owned him last two seasons and I considered him valuable.

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As for Horford, he's probably going to see a hit this year. Here's something we actually agree on, I expect him to be at about 80% of his stats from last year. Too many mouths to feed in Philly. Gonna be a big help to them IRL though!

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12 hours ago, apatas said:

Interesting. I owned him last two seasons and I considered him valuable.

 

He was awful in february and march of the 2018 season

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22 hours ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

He was awful in february and march of the 2018 season

Yes, I remember there really was one period. But I didn't remember it until you here reminded. I mostly remember good things from him.

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Horford's got such an interesting projected statset that I don't even know who to compare him to. Justise Winslow with better %s? He's an interesting fit with his lack of rebounding but high assists, I'm wondering what type of team he fits on best. Whenever I'm around his pick range I'm still looking for rebounding in my bigs so I never feel tempted to snag him. 

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I like Horford mostly for his out-of-position stats like 1+ threes, 4+ ast and 80+ FT%.

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15 minutes ago, apatas said:

I like Horford mostly for his out-of-position stats like 1+ threes, 4+ ast and 80+ FT%.

 

And I like all that too, but the problem I'm running into as at his ADP (63 on Yahoo) I'm having trouble figuring out what builds I like him in.

I'll use a recent mock as an example. I got Beal/Kyrie in rounds 1/2, then Ayton and Siakam in rounds 3 and 4, which is an excellent spot to get them imo, but if I make Horford in round 6 my 3rd big am I not making myself deficient in rebounds compared to people who are drafting 3 bigs who are good in rebounds at this point? Guys like Steven Adams, Randle, Bagley are also going there. Maybe I shouldn't be hoping to compete with them in rebounds with my team makeup there, I dunno, that's what I'm trying to figure out. 

Edited by s-kayos

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I'll take the under on all of Horford's counting stats compared to last year. He'll be significantly overdrafted imo. 

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Horford is more useful in roto than H2H,his stats not hurting you in any category,but also not elite in any category

He is 33 years old and in 76ers now (too many mouths to feed in 76ers), his workload will decrease and the load management in playoff time

So I will avoid him in H2H

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On 9/7/2019 at 7:12 AM, Code of Hammurabi said:

I'll take the under on all of Horford's counting stats compared to last year. He'll be significantly overdrafted imo. 

 

I feel this way too. I just don't think the ball will be in his hands as much as we're used to

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On 9/6/2019 at 8:38 PM, s-kayos said:

Horford's got such an interesting projected statset that I don't even know who to compare him to. Justise Winslow with better %s? He's an interesting fit with his lack of rebounding but high assists, I'm wondering what type of team he fits on best. Whenever I'm around his pick range I'm still looking for rebounding in my bigs so I never feel tempted to snag him. 


Indeed, hard to find a similar profile here...

 

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On 9/6/2019 at 2:35 PM, s-kayos said:

 

And I like all that too, but the problem I'm running into as at his ADP (63 on Yahoo) I'm having trouble figuring out what builds I like him in.

I'll use a recent mock as an example. I got Beal/Kyrie in rounds 1/2, then Ayton and Siakam in rounds 3 and 4, which is an excellent spot to get them imo, but if I make Horford in round 6 my 3rd big am I not making myself deficient in rebounds compared to people who are drafting 3 bigs who are good in rebounds at this point? Guys like Steven Adams, Randle, Bagley are also going there. Maybe I shouldn't be hoping to compete with them in rebounds with my team makeup there, I dunno, that's what I'm trying to figure out. 

You see rebounding as a concern with that build and I see the concern being blocks. When you get the elite/dynamic block providers early and a cat killing type of guard I feel like it allows you more flexibility to draft Horford's all around stat line that doesn't pop out anywhere. When you draft balance early you are probably going to feel like you are giving ground in all cats by drafting Horford because he doesn't crush anything and taking him in those early mid rounds makes you one step closer to drafting a specialist to plug roster holes. He almost needs to be the 3rd big drafted that seals a dominance in blocks while covering up a bit of assists since you had to spend draft capital on taking bigs that block early. Hopefully that makes sense. In general, I very rarely have Horford in my queue by the time he gets drafted. He always feels a round or two early to me. 

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Horford stats last year were similar to LMA. Good %s, low TOs, and contributing in many categories with few weaker categories  that barely hurt your team (pts, reb, stl for  Horford, 3s, stl and ast for LMA)

They finished  29th  and 25th perr game  (34th and 16th in total  value).

Where would you draft Horford (and  Aldridge) this year?    I l think  Horford will return top 60 value in H2H and I have no problems taking him in 4th-5th round.

 

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On 9/6/2019 at 4:35 PM, s-kayos said:

 

And I like all that too, but the problem I'm running into as at his ADP (63 on Yahoo) I'm having trouble figuring out what builds I like him in.

I'll use a recent mock as an example. I got Beal/Kyrie in rounds 1/2, then Ayton and Siakam in rounds 3 and 4, which is an excellent spot to get them imo, but if I make Horford in round 6 my 3rd big am I not making myself deficient in rebounds compared to people who are drafting 3 bigs who are good in rebounds at this point? Guys like Steven Adams, Randle, Bagley are also going there. Maybe I shouldn't be hoping to compete with them in rebounds with my team makeup there, I dunno, that's what I'm trying to figure out. 

I took him at 72 in a recent $100 H2H 9 cat league as my second big (my picks to that point were AD, Booker, Mitchell, Porter, CP3).  He finished 29th last season and even if you assume some regression, his value is not tied to scoring, and I do not see him falling outside the top 50.  If you're picking him around 61-72 then you're getting a massive steal imo.  I wouldn't worry too much about him being deficient in rebounds, even in H2H.  Those teams who draft someone like Adams in the same range are punting FT% and were going to beat you in rebounds anyway.  However, with Horford you're getting an advantage over Adams in threes, assists, and likely blocks as well.  Whereas, you're giving up rebounds and steals, at least to Adams.  If you're thinking in terms of categories you're gaining more than you're losing.  In the case of my team above he's turning blocks in my favor and providing me with extra assists assurance in case CP3 goes down, as well as potentially shoring up FG%.  Sure, I could draft a big more dominant in rebounds but even so I'm still losing rebounds to the big rebounding teams.  This way I'm competitive with the other teams who are going guard heavy.  At least this way I shore up assists/blocks.  A better way to look at Horford is a big man eligible guard who gets nearly the same assists, steals, and threes as littles in his range while providing a block, higher FG%, and lower TO.  Also, if you're punting points Horford is a top 25 player.  In roto we can all see Horford as having useful, diverse stats.  You're struggling with where to put him in H2H.  But even in H2H he has uses that would make me want him as a top 60 pick.         

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41 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I took him at 72 in a recent $100 H2H 9 cat league as my second big (my picks to that point were AD, Booker, Mitchell, Porter, CP3).  He finished 29th last season and even if you assume some regression, his value is not tied to scoring, and I do not see him falling outside the top 50.  If you're picking him around 61-72 then you're getting a massive steal imo.  I wouldn't worry too much about him being deficient in rebounds, even in H2H.  Those teams who draft someone like Adams in the same range are punting FT% and were going to beat you in rebounds anyway.  However, with Horford you're getting an advantage over Adams in threes, assists, and likely blocks as well.  Whereas, you're giving up rebounds and steals, at least to Adams.  If you're thinking in terms of categories you're gaining more than you're losing.  In the case of my team above he's turning blocks in my favor and providing me with extra assists assurance in case CP3 goes down, as well as potentially shoring up FG%.  Sure, I could draft a big more dominant in rebounds but even so I'm still losing rebounds to the big rebounding teams.  This way I'm competitive with the other teams who are going guard heavy.  At least this way I shore up assists/blocks.  A better way to look at Horford is a big man eligible guard who gets nearly the same assists, steals, and threes as littles in his range while providing a block, higher FG%, and lower TO.  Also, if you're punting points Horford is a top 25 player.  In roto we can all see Horford as having useful, diverse stats.  You're struggling with where to put him in H2H.  But even in H2H he has uses that would make me want him as a top 60 pick.         

hmm....I don't think Horford will available in 6th round:rolleyes:

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4 minutes ago, kane said:

hmm....I don't think Horford will available in 6th round:rolleyes:

My first sentence was that I took him in the last pick of the sixth round in a real money league so idk if you’re trolling or not.  If you’re not then you should refer to the original post which referenced taking him in the sixth round.  Either way I assume if he’s available in the sixth you’d take him.  

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

I took him at 72 in a recent $100 H2H 9 cat league as my second big (my picks to that point were AD, Booker, Mitchell, Porter, CP3).  He finished 29th last season and even if you assume some regression, his value is not tied to scoring, and I do not see him falling outside the top 50.  If you're picking him around 61-72 then you're getting a massive steal imo.  I wouldn't worry too much about him being deficient in rebounds, even in H2H.  Those teams who draft someone like Adams in the same range are punting FT% and were going to beat you in rebounds anyway.  However, with Horford you're getting an advantage over Adams in threes, assists, and likely blocks as well.  Whereas, you're giving up rebounds and steals, at least to Adams.  If you're thinking in terms of categories you're gaining more than you're losing.  In the case of my team above he's turning blocks in my favor and providing me with extra assists assurance in case CP3 goes down, as well as potentially shoring up FG%.  Sure, I could draft a big more dominant in rebounds but even so I'm still losing rebounds to the big rebounding teams.  This way I'm competitive with the other teams who are going guard heavy.  At least this way I shore up assists/blocks.  A better way to look at Horford is a big man eligible guard who gets nearly the same assists, steals, and threes as littles in his range while providing a block, higher FG%, and lower TO.  Also, if you're punting points Horford is a top 25 player.  In roto we can all see Horford as having useful, diverse stats.  You're struggling with where to put him in H2H.  But even in H2H he has uses that would make me want him as a top 60 pick.         

I have a very similar approach.  I prefer players that are solid across   multiple categories and not causing you to lose some cats (FG%, FT%, TOs).

Harford "weakness" in rebounds is still positive contribution to rebounds category for your team that you may (or not) win .  Opposite example is Simmons. His weakness in FT% and TO is essentially  forcing you to lose those two categories, punting them or not. 

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Hes strictly Do not Draft for me this year. Im almost positive he will take a hit due to his age and the new stacked team hes on.

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