The G Man

Chase Edmonds 2019 Outlook

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58 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Think it's obvious DJ plays. Edmonds will have value in PPR guaranteed but whether or not the Cards decide to ditch DJ or turn this into a 50-50 is a toss up. 

 

How so if you don't mind me asking?

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1 minute ago, BurgundyBooger said:

 

How so if you don't mind me asking?

He was available to play Sunday "in an emergency", which means he was healthy enough to play but they didn't want to risk it. Which means another week and he should be more than fine. 

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1 minute ago, oliminator123 said:

He was available to play Sunday "in an emergency", which means he was healthy enough to play but they didn't want to risk it. Which means another week and he should be more than fine. 

 

They "thought" he was healthy enough to play, then he ran a couple of plays and realized he wasn't. Doesn't make him a lock to play this week.

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2 minutes ago, beerfish said:

 

They "thought" he was healthy enough to play, then he ran a couple of plays and realized he wasn't. Doesn't make him a lock to play this week.

In emergency. 

Meaning if Edmonds got injured, DJ would have played. 

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Just now, oliminator123 said:

In emergency. 

Meaning if Edmonds got injured, DJ would have played. 

I don't think they're giving Ajayi a look so he can cover punts.

We'll see what happens.  Don't look good to me though.

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3 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I don't think they're giving Ajayi a look so he can cover punts.

We'll see what happens.  Don't look good to me though.

I'd agree about Ajayi but all teams need a third RB. 

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Nobody truly knows how banged up DJ is. Edmonds is balling in the meantime so let's ride him.

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Just now, oliminator123 said:

I'd agree about Ajayi but all teams need a third RB. 

They do.  Typically they play special teams.

I'd suspect if they were looking for someone to fill Foster's role that'd be the type of dude they'd be looking at...

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I also think DJ is far from a lock to play this weekend. Something just doesn't feel right about this whole thing, and Edmonds just balled out. Practice reports will be telling, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see DJ inactive this weekend. 

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6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

They do.  Typically they play special teams.

I'd suspect if they were looking for someone to fill Foster's role that'd be the type of dude they'd be looking at...

They don’t play ST when they have a complex offense to learn in a few days- with a very real chance of seeing regular work.   DJ is going to be a GT decision again. 

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

They don’t play ST when they have a complex offense to learn in a few days- with a very real chance of seeing regular work.   DJ is going to be a GT decision again. 

I'ma wait on who gets signed, if anybody.

If it's Ajayi or Ware, regardless of DJ's official injury designation, something doesn't smell right.

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I was wondering if I should possibly sell high on Edmonds, but it sounds like I need to take a wait and see approach.  I just hate not being confident in a start, and it's hard to be confident if I have to guess what his work load will be along side DJ. 

 

If DJ's injury is more serious than anticipated, that changes everything for Edmond's outlook.  However, the uncertainty is also what potentially makes him a sell high.  DJ owner in particular may be willing to offer a nice haul to land him.

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People are freaking out about the upcoming schedule. If you were in standard I'd be nervous, but in PPR it is literally a goldmine for Edmonds. Quick dumpoffs passes to Edmonds will add up quite nicely. 

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4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Given that DJ was a game time decision the week prior and still yielded a lion's share of the work, against a defense that had been hemorrhaging pass yards, that Daniel Jones had looked competent in some previous starts and the Cardinals defense had been a disaster, and that Edmonds has had two useable games in his career prior to this and DJ was a first rounder, and that his role has been difficult to peg with him in the lineup, I can't agree with you that starting two backs on this offense seemed smart WITHOUT the benefit of hindsight.

I suppose you could say, "didn't you look a the weather report" but in the past passing games have been functional with light winds even in the rain.

Of course if you had a bunch of injuries or byes starting both may have been your only option.  But I don't think putting Edmonds in your lineup on Sunday was the "smart" call.  I think it was the lucky call.

Kingsbury's Friday comments of that he would not have played if the game was played that day, that's alarming and set this week apart from last week imo. But yes, situation looked exactly the same as last week for those who missed that comment.

Hemorrhaging pass yards or not, they were statistically still a worse rush defense than a pass defense. Daniel Jones looking competent or not, they were still a bottom-10 offense coming in and worse than Cardinals both in points and yards per game. Nothing suggesting it would be a lopsided game forcing Cardinals to abandon the run which you are suggesting.

But yeah, it's all dependent on your situation. I'm quite risk-averse too. I know it feels uncomfortable rolling out two from the same backfield, but when it's backed up statistically I tend to use it. 23.7/2 half-PPR points is more than what RB2's in the likes of Michel, Breida, Freeman, Howard and White average per game, for example.

Pending Gurley's health reports, a Gurley/Henderson stack this upcoming week vs Bengals (league-worst vs backfields) is another example where this strategy might be an idea. Especially with Brown not available just like a third back in Cardinals (Foster) was not available week 7.

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1 minute ago, Alconbury said:

Kingsbury's Friday comments of that he would not have played if the game was played that day, that's alarming and set this week apart from last week imo. But yes, situation looked exactly the same as last week for those who missed that comment.

Hemorrhaging pass yards or not, they were statistically still a worse rush defense than a pass defense. Daniel Jones looking competent or not, they were still a bottom-10 offense coming in and worse than Cardinals both in points and yards per game. Nothing suggesting it would be a lopsided game forcing Cardinals to abandon the run which you are suggesting.

But yeah, it's all dependent on your situation. I'm quite risk-averse too. I know it feels uncomfortable rolling out two from the same backfield, but when it's backed up statistically I tend to use it. 23.7/2 half-PPR points is more than what RB2's in the likes of Michel, Breida, Freeman, Howard and White average per game, for example.

Pending Gurley's health reports, a Gurley/Henderson stack this upcoming week vs Bengals (league-worst vs backfields) is another example where this strategy might be an idea. Especially with Brown not available just like a third back in Cardinals (Foster) was not available week 7.

I'm not suggesting "abandon the run."

But I don't think Chase's mom saw three rushing TDs coming.  I think if you asked most people they would have thought this would be a high scoring game featuring two passing offenses capable of exploiting the opposing pass defenses.

By the numbers, prior to Sunday, the Giants had yielded 5 TDs on the ground to backs and 10 passing TDs.  While they aren't good in any phase of the game defensively, they were eviscerated in the passing game by Dallas (a team typically known for running the ball), Tampa (Jameis is at best a hot and cold QB), and even extreme run heavy outfits like Buffalo and Minnesota had solid passing days against them.

Assuming you went it to this from the prospective of "DJ played last week through a GTD tag, and in that game Edmonds got 7 touches" you'd have to admit, this was a gamble.  It paid out.  But to say it was the "smart call" well, again I would say that depends on your options.  If you sat someone with a more guaranteed voluminous role so you could bet on Edmonds, it worked out, but it wasn't process driven.

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The only reason Edmonds kept playing the rest of the game was because they were up the entire game (pouring rain) and he was running the ball well (I wouldnt say great or anything, his 3 TDs were garbage against the Giants). Why put in DJ with them crushing the clock and running the back up?? Everything will go back to normal next week with Arizona chasing the lead and DJ will get a full load in. Please don't think Chase Edmonds is a 3 down back (5'9 205). He had a lucky game and will resort back to change of pace back.

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15 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm not suggesting "abandon the run."

But I don't think Chase's mom saw three rushing TDs coming.  I think if you asked most people they would have thought this would be a high scoring game featuring two passing offenses capable of exploiting the opposing pass defenses.

By the numbers, prior to Sunday, the Giants had yielded 5 TDs on the ground to backs and 10 passing TDs.  While they aren't good in any phase of the game defensively, they were eviscerated in the passing game by Dallas (a team typically known for running the ball), Tampa (Jameis is at best a hot and cold QB), and even extreme run heavy outfits like Buffalo and Minnesota had solid passing days against them.

Assuming you went it to this from the prospective of "DJ played last week through a GTD tag, and in that game Edmonds got 7 touches" you'd have to admit, this was a gamble.  It paid out.  But to say it was the "smart call" well, again I would say that depends on your options.  If you sat someone with a more guaranteed voluminous role so you could bet on Edmonds, it worked out, but it wasn't process driven.

 

Chase Edmonds is capable of producing. Granted Arizona played @Cin, All, @NYG, doesn't really mean much. Chase will get his, even if it's only 15 PPR points, I'd say that is a good outing against New Orleans on the road.

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2 minutes ago, oresteszero said:

 

Chase Edmonds is capable of producing. Granted Arizona played @Cin, All, @NYG, doesn't really mean much. Chase will get his, even if it's only 15 PPR points, I'd say that is a good outing against New Orleans on the road.

He certainly is, no question about that.

Moving forward, I'm going to be more skeptical of DJ's official status.

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16 minutes ago, BeefDaddy said:

The only reason Edmonds kept playing the rest of the game was because they were up the entire game (pouring rain) and he was running the ball well (I wouldnt say great or anything, his 3 TDs were garbage against the Giants). Why put in DJ with them crushing the clock and running the back up?? Everything will go back to normal next week with Arizona chasing the lead and DJ will get a full load in. Please don't think Chase Edmonds is a 3 down back (5'9 205). He had a lucky game and will resort back to change of pace back.

I mean he very well may have had his best game of the season, but there's no competition between his running/burst this year and DJ's. Edmonds is better and handled a full load pretty well.  Also, DJ's injuries aren't likely to get better while playing.  Edmonds seems to be more than just a change of pace back now regardless of DJ's health.

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NFL teams lie.

This kid literally saved my season last week. 

He had half his family and college teamates in the stands last week. 

Ya gotta look at every angle, every week, on every play, and listening to all the talking heads like Berry, Rap Sheet, and Schefter can have dire consequences. 

It's Chase Edmonds SZN.

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7 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm not suggesting "abandon the run."

But I don't think Chase's mom saw three rushing TDs coming.  I think if you asked most people they would have thought this would be a high scoring game featuring two passing offenses capable of exploiting the opposing pass defenses.

By the numbers, prior to Sunday, the Giants had yielded 5 TDs on the ground to backs and 10 passing TDs.  While they aren't good in any phase of the game defensively, they were eviscerated in the passing game by Dallas (a team typically known for running the ball), Tampa (Jameis is at best a hot and cold QB), and even extreme run heavy outfits like Buffalo and Minnesota had solid passing days against them.

Assuming you went it to this from the prospective of "DJ played last week through a GTD tag, and in that game Edmonds got 7 touches" you'd have to admit, this was a gamble.  It paid out.  But to say it was the "smart call" well, again I would say that depends on your options.  If you sat someone with a more guaranteed voluminous role so you could bet on Edmonds, it worked out, but it wasn't process driven.

Three rushing TD's and the 34.2/2 points each were way more than the strategy statistically and theoretically suggested coming into the game (23.7/2), so having that as an argument against it doesn't make sense. That success was not expected by anyone, not even his mom.

And well, now we are just looking at small nuances in predicting how the game and game script would unfold. In which we are not in agreement anyway. I guess I have a more statistically-driven approach and you a more perceptual approach; broader stats vs "they were eviscerated in the passing game" etc. Gamescript differences which imo wasn't going to result in a massive deviation from the mean in terms of RB fantasy points given up anyway. The strategy applied to the games vs Tampa, Buffalo and Minnesota for example would still have yielded two players with RB2 numbers in all of them, even though you felt they were winning through the air.

The "smart" in using the strategy is trading away the risk of the starter of uncertain status being forced out of the game due to re-injury and instead bet on the whole backfield and settle with, theoretically, RB2 numbers for two of your players.

And yes, I did state it depends on situation and other options. As I compared, Michel, Breida, Freeman, Howard and White all average less points than what "backfields vs NYG, divided up between two backs" do. It's risk-averse and low upside, absolutely. The upside was way higher starting DJ and one of those names obviously. But statistically, if the injury really turns out to be a problem, you end up one goose egg and one RB2. Starting the backfield; worst case is two RB2's. This is process-driven if anything.

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2 hours ago, sSektor said:

 

By smart you mean desperate during a bye week right?

I'm starting Edmonds again this week. 

I stashed Chase on 9/25 and I will continue to start Edmonds unitl he gives me a reason not to. 

 

Last 3 weeks for Chase: 

 

17.6

14.7

40

I don't care who he plays, dude is on fire. 

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Will his mom and friends be in the stands this weekend? That's all I need to know going forward. 

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Just now, Cardiak said:

Will his mom and friends be in the stands this weekend? That's all I need to know going forward. 

 

Cliff Kingsbury: 

 

"I saw the way Chase was full of energy and bouncing around in the locker room before the game, I knew he was gonna have a day." 

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Just now, The Gridiron Assassin said:

I'm starting Edmonds again this week. 

I stashed Chase on 9/25 and I will continue to start Edmonds unitl he gives me a reason not to. 

 

Last 3 weeks for Chase: 

 

17.6

14.7

40

I don't care who he plays, dude is on fire. 

 

17.6 - Cincinatti

14.7 - Atlanta

40 - NYG

 

All below average-terrible run defenses. If he produces this week against NO I'll be sold but at least try to be a little cautious about the situation. We've seen Chris Thompson go on stretches of huge production against weak schedules too.

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