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Buy Low / Sell High 2019

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3 minutes ago, street sharks said:

Nobody is buying robert woods. I probably couldn't even move him for calvin ridley 

I'd buy him if I was hurting at WR

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On 9/27/2019 at 6:36 PM, Bringthesonicsback said:

I've been doing some number diving out of boredom and want to make some arguments as to why some players are good buy lows/sell highs. I tend to not over value advanced analytics but its interesting to break down. 

some vocab I copy/pasted off noextrapoints.com to save time. 

 

RACR – receiver air conversion ratio 

The formula is: RACR = Receiving Yards / Air Yards

This number combines YAC and depth of target to form a more complete picture of efficiency.

A “good” RACR varies, but roughly speaking, an efficient player’s ratio is 1.0 or higher.

 aDOT – average depth of target

Air Yards-  the total yards thrown to a player (including incomplete passes). The value in high air yards is INTENT (opportunity for production).

 

Okay, so based off these two metrics we can get an pretty decent idea of who is potentially under preforming or over preforming. Typically the lower the aDOT the higher the efficiency (RACR), BUT there are players that have an exceptionally high aDOT combined with a very high RACR three weeks into the season (SELL HIGH PLAYERS). We also have players with a high aDOT (getting the looks down the field, much more valuable for fantasy) but a low RACR- the opportunities are there but for various reasons, the targets haven't connected (POTENTIALLY BUY LOW PLAYERS).

 

Some examples of these principals applied:

2018 Ryan Switzer- 43 targets 36 receptions, aDOT- 3.4yards (nothing downfield),  RACR- 1.72 (highly efficient)

2018 John Brown-  97 targets, 42 receptions, aDOT- 16.1yards(bombs), RACR- 0.46 (highly inefficient)

 

Simply put, the higher the aDOT, the "less efficient the receiver" and vise vera.. you guys get it. 

 

Then you have the fantasy goldmines that combine a HIGH aDOT with a HIGH efficiency rating. 

Example:

2018 Tyler Lockett- 67 targets, 55 receptions, aDOT- 13.6 yards, RACR- 1.07 (6th highest out of receivers w 50+ targets, highest aDOT in the top 5- Kupp with 8.1yards)

2018 T.Y. Hilton- 118 targets, 74 receptions, aDOT- 11.1 yards, RACR- 0.95.

 

MY ARGUMENT- a high aDOT and high RACR are not friends, unless a player has an all-time efficient season like Lockett's or is an elite tier receiver like Hilton that production+volume is not sustainable/a drop in RACR at low volume= not a valuable WR. 

 

and i know, its only been three weeks... i get it. 

these players could just be in for amazing season and sustain this crazy efficiency but i don't buy it. Many of the players are already clear sell highs in my eyes and are typically the late draft picks that are simply over preforming. If you can get a proven player that is producing similar value or a buy low, do it.

 

SELL HIGH WR's ( or players to bump down in your value rankings): 

D.J. Chark- 18 targets, 15 receptions, aDOT- 14.2, RACR- 1.08 

Phillip Dorsett- 14 targets, 13 receptions, aDOT- 10.6, RACR- 1.26 (there is some carryover of insane efficiency from last year with Dorsett, this one feels a bit more sustainable?).

Demarcus Robinson- 12 targets, 10 receptions, aDOT- 17.6, RACR- 1.02 (sell high for obvious reasons, his production will drop.. fast). His volume isn't anything to write home about and is boasted by chunk plays.

Sutton- 22 targets, 16, aDOT- 11.5, RACR- 0.97

John Ross- just get anything for him, last years RACR was 0.25 and he's sitting a clean 0.94.. his efficiency will plummet and AJ will take looks away soon.. throw much in a trade. 

 

these WR's have the opportunity (high in air yards, high aDOT- the valuable targets) and could get a bump in efficiency as the season goes on.

BUY LOW WR's (or player who's value could get a bump):

 

Kenny Golladay- 27 targets, 14 receptions, aDOT- 13.8, RACR- 0.47, 373 air yards. Last year: aDOT- 12.9, RACR- 0.7. The efficiency will get a bump as the season goes, buy low.

Will Fuller- 17 targets, 11 receptions, aDOT- 18.2, RACR- 0.52, 310 air yards. Fuller has bumped up in efficiency every season he's played (0.42, 0.53, 0.76), I believe in the talent, the opportunity is definitely there, buy low as a WR3 that should get better as the season goes on. 

Robert Woods- 23 targets, 13 receptions, aDOT- 10.1, RACR- 0.62, 232 air yards. Another guy that is at a lower efficiency than his career numbers ( his past two seasons in LA his RACR- 0.82, 0.88). 

Devante Parker- 20 targets, 6 receptions, aDOT- 21.6, RACR- 0.3, 433 air yards( #4 in the league). Now this is more for 12+ leagues with extra flex spots or 3 WR spots. Devante is not good but the opportunity to absolutely boom.. is there. Boom or bust guy that will connect on some of those bombs soon and get more attention. The efficiency is just too low to not go up a touch.  

Hollywood Brown- 27 targets, 14 catches- aDOT-17.3, RACR- 0.61. The big thing here is the air yards (#3 in the league), Hollywood gets the valuable down the field work and has already broke out but if an owner is down on him after week 3, try to get him with say... a D.J. Chark? 

I’ll update the numbers and make a similar list when I have a minute but looks like I missed on Chark and Sutton, they’re still ballin but if you can swap for a legit WR2, probably still do it (more so w Sutton).. their price tags have gone way up. The buy-lows panned out for the most part (fuller whaaaaat😲) but a bit disappointed w Hollywoods drop-off and the jury is still out on Woods and his consistency. 

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1 hour ago, Bringthesonicsback said:

I’ll update the numbers and make a similar list when I have a minute but looks like I missed on Chark and Sutton, they’re still ballin but if you can swap for a legit WR2, probably still do it (more so w Sutton).. their price tags have gone way up. The buy-lows panned out for the most part (fuller whaaaaat😲) but a bit disappointed w Hollywoods drop-off and the jury is still out on Woods and his consistency. 

What legit WR2 could I get for Sutton in your opinion? Name value aside, he seems a pretty solid bet to finish the season in WR2 territory.

Like your great analysis though. Valuable imformation, thanks!

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Sell high on Freeman, Jordan Howard, Sony Michel

Buy low on Mike Evans, Damien Williams, AJ green

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2 hours ago, Bringthesonicsback said:

I’ll update the numbers and make a similar list when I have a minute but looks like I missed on Chark and Sutton, they’re still ballin but if you can swap for a legit WR2, probably still do it (more so w Sutton).. their price tags have gone way up. The buy-lows panned out for the most part (fuller whaaaaat😲) but a bit disappointed w Hollywoods drop-off and the jury is still out on Woods and his consistency. 

Hollywood was in and out of the game with an ankle injury, he still had a TD grab early before he got injured 

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23 minutes ago, frog34 said:

What legit WR2 could I get for Sutton in your opinion? Name value aside, he seems a pretty solid bet to finish the season in WR2 territory.

Like your great analysis though. Valuable imformation, thanks!

I agree, he very well could. WR for WR swaps don’t happen that often, if you want to maximize his value it’ll probably be through a package. Lockett, Golladay, Boyd are all guys I prefer but a straight up trade for these guys is unlikely unless you’re dealing w a Bronco homer. And thanks my friend! 

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18 minutes ago, atrium said:

Hollywood was in and out of the game with an ankle injury, he still had a TD grab early before he got injured 

Yup yup, still a great buy low and that TD was niiiice

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If I was 5-0 or 4-1 AJ Green is definitely a guy I'd target. His owner could be completely fed up (and struggling). Might be able to get him cheap. 

And while he's not really "low" right now the team looked so bad it's conceivable a Chubb owner is worried, especially as we near Hunt's return. I'd float an offer. 

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