Sign in to follow this  
bradwatson

Way Too Early 2020 Rankings

Recommended Posts

Soto has earned his way into being a top 10 lock at this point IMO. He's going to be 21 on OD, coming off of a monster 5 cat season. No signs of a letdown coming, just the opposite. He has fantasy #1 ceiling, unlike some of the other guys in that range (Nolan, the pitchers, Rendon, Bregman). Think a prime Miggy season + 15-20 bags. He's got a reasonably reliable floor (as reliable as one can be for a player with <900 ABs) and a ceiling that only the three top tier guys can match. If the top 3 are off the board and Soto is there, he's the guy I take. Yeah, even over Bellinger. Soto has been a little better overall since May 1, and I have more confidence both in him putting up a bonkers .300-40-20 type of season next year than Belli, and also being a top 30 player if things don't go as well as planned.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, sleepysock said:

Soto has earned his way into being a top 10 lock at this point IMO. He's going to be 21 on OD, coming off of a monster 5 cat season. No signs of a letdown coming, just the opposite. He has fantasy #1 ceiling, unlike some of the other guys in that range (Nolan, the pitchers, Rendon, Bregman). Think a prime Miggy season + 15-20 bags. He's got a reasonably reliable floor (as reliable as one can be for a player with <900 ABs) and a ceiling that only the three top tier guys can match. If the top 3 are off the board and Soto is there, he's the guy I take. Yeah, even over Bellinger. Soto has been a little better overall since May 1, and I have more confidence both in him putting up a bonkers .300-40-20 type of season next year than Belli, and also being a top 30 player if things don't go as well as planned.

I actually agree he in a borderline top 10.. just don't know about THAT high.. but I would not be surprised to see Soto go 4th overall is many leagues. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, sleepysock said:

Soto has earned his way into being a top 10 lock at this point IMO. He's going to be 21 on OD, coming off of a monster 5 cat season. No signs of a letdown coming, just the opposite. He has fantasy #1 ceiling, unlike some of the other guys in that range (Nolan, the pitchers, Rendon, Bregman). Think a prime Miggy season + 15-20 bags. He's got a reasonably reliable floor (as reliable as one can be for a player with <900 ABs) and a ceiling that only the three top tier guys can match. If the top 3 are off the board and Soto is there, he's the guy I take. Yeah, even over Bellinger. Soto has been a little better overall since May 1, and I have more confidence both in him putting up a bonkers .300-40-20 type of season next year than Belli, and also being a top 30 player if things don't go as well as planned.

Soto is the most underrated player in the game, which is pretty crazy considering he's only 20. Acuna gets all the hype, but Soto is a year younger and has been as good as or better than Acuna in virtually every aspect besides steals. Any list that doesn't have him in the first round is bogus imo. In a first year dynasty draft those guys should go 1 and 2 overall.

Edited by bradwatson
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/6/2019 at 5:18 PM, Flyman75 said:

 

Acuna is a first rounder. Period. He's a top 3 pick, and I don't believe taking him over Trout is a risk. Acuna is safe, imho. If you don't want to draft him 1st overall or in the first round, then that's up to you. For me, he and Yelich are the top two picks in 2020. But I'm certainly not going to fault anyone for taking Trout first overall. I just like Yelich and Acuna there more in 2020 than Trout. 

 

I would prefer to have the 3rd pick, then the decision is easy... hahaha.

If you get the first pick, you're gonna be second guessing yourself. (It would suck to have the 4th pick though and miss out on those 3. Oh well there's always Mookie.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, papasmurf said:

 

I would prefer to have the 3rd pick, then the decision is easy... hahaha.

If you get the first pick, you're gonna be second guessing yourself. (It would suck to have the 4th pick though and miss out on those 3. Oh well there's always Mookie.)

Yup. 3 is where you want to be. Let the top 2 bite their fingernails down to the bone while you sit back and take whatever stud they flounder on. I wouldn't mind having a later first round pick to couple an early 2nd round pick though. Lots of young studs early on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, papasmurf said:

 

I would prefer to have the 3rd pick, then the decision is easy... hahaha.

If you get the first pick, you're gonna be second guessing yourself. (It would suck to have the 4th pick though and miss out on those 3. Oh well there's always Mookie.)

 

taking anyone over Trout is a risk.  If you take Yelich and he misses a month because of his back and finishes 50th overall you will look like a fool.  If Acuna goes into a little sophmore (junior) slump like he is right now and he finishes, lets say like 25th overall, you look like a fool.  If you take Trout first, and he finishes 9th, and Acuna and Yelich finish 1 and 2, no one will second guess you

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two years in a row I had Trout miss a lot of games while I'm in the midst of my playoffs. Who knows when he will play again this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can't really forecast injuries for guys that don't have chronic injuries. Banking on 150+ games from anyone is impossible. Best you can hope for is 140+ based on a history of good health and age. Trout has been at 140+ every year but 1. That's good enough for me. He's still the consensus #1 unless you choose to roster build a certain way (i.e., taking a guy like Acuna first so you can worry less about steals later).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

Yup. 3 is where you want to be. Let the top 2 bite their fingernails down to the bone while you sit back and take whatever stud they flounder on. I wouldn't mind having a later first round pick to couple an early 2nd round pick though. Lots of young studs early on.

2020 is looking really similar to that year like 5 years ago where goldsmidt and Harper enterred the conversation as 1,1a,1b along with trout.  Trout seems to always win somehow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

taking anyone over Trout is a risk.  If you take Yelich and he misses a month because of his back and finishes 50th overall you will look like a fool.  If Acuna goes into a little sophmore (junior) slump like he is right now and he finishes, lets say like 25th overall, you look like a fool.  If you take Trout first, and he finishes 9th, and Acuna and Yelich finish 1 and 2, no one will second guess you

 

If you pick Trout 1st and Yelich finishes 1st next year, after finishing first this year, wouldn't you have to second guess yourself?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/6/2019 at 7:30 PM, Jyeatbvg said:

Every year there's a new #1.

 

 

 

And every year Trout outperforms that #1.

 

Trout has been the 1.1 for about 5 years 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Acuna is going to have the #1overall adp.  

 

Some will still take trout & yelich, and that’s fine.  There really isn’t a wrong answer there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Points league you have to go Trout

In Roto there is a legit argument- though I'd still probably take Trout

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

If you pick Trout 1st and Yelich finishes 1st next year, after finishing first this year, wouldn't you have to second guess yourself?

 

If Trout finishes 9th, no. You take Trout because he's money-in-the-bank.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Trout has been the 1.1 for about 5 years 

Betts, Altuve, Yelich have all been realistic (or at least argued) #1's over the past 3-4 years.

 

edit: Apparently Acuna now as well

Edited by Jyeatbvg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Betts, Altuve, Yelich have all been realistic (or at least argued) #1's over the past 3-4 years.

 

edit: Apparently Acuna now as well

 

Im talking about average adp.  Trout has been the first player taken for a number of years.  Next year that changes in 5x5.  Trout doesn’t run anymore 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Im talking about average adp.  Trout has been the first player taken for a number of years.  Next year that changes in 5x5.  Trout doesn’t run anymore 

reminds me alot of Pujols. For years he went like 1.2 adp. HanRam/Kemp/Crawford gave him a run a few years but pujols was always a lock for 35-40hr 130rbi .320 and a handful of sb. Much like trout

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

reminds me alot of Pujols. For years he went like 1.2 adp. HanRam/Kemp/Crawford gave him a run a few years but pujols was always a lock for 35-40hr 130rbi .320 and a handful of sb. Much like trout

Yup this is exactly what I'm referring to. Every year someone challenges these guys and they continue to perform.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm taking Trout #1, rather have the GOAT in his 20s than anyone else, steals or not. Maybe Acuna has a better shot to finish the #1 player than Trout, but I think Trout's floor is a first rounder. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This 2020 first two rounds piece from Scott White at CBS is pretty interesting.  Seeing Anthony Rendon at #10 will make a lot of his fans happy, and with CBS's focus being on points leagues, it's certainly defensible.  I'd have a tough time going that high in 5x5 for a guy who doesn't contribute steals, but in 6x6 with OBP where SBs are devalued and his XBH help his cause, I could see it.

What's really funny, though, is how he sets up the premise of the piece as pushing SPs up and then... doesn't really follow through on it as much as I expected.  The first 5 SPs in 2019 went 4, 10, 11, 21, and 24 according to FantasyPros, while White is suggesting Scherzer at 6, Verlander at 7, Cole at 8, deGrom at 15, and Sale at 16.  That's definitely some movement, but I'd argue that the dearth of aces who go 6-7+ IP on the regular makes all of those names, plus some of the guys from his just-missed tier (Bieber, Buehler, Clevinger, Kershaw, possibly some others) worthy of late 2nd round consideration.

Yes, that means passing on some *really* good bats, and we know how risky these picks are with how often pitchers get hurt, but it's just so hard nowadays to win without stability at the top of the rotation, so if I have to "settle" for a Judge or a Ramirez instead of a Soto or Xander to get an SP1, I'm going to do it./

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 Great list.

I would put Alvarez in early 2nd Round. Also, I think Scherzer is finally showing his age with the injuries, etc, and I would have Cole ranked above him and Verlander.

Points of note:

Yelich is showing what he really is, and belongs that high up. Bellinger, likewise, but his BA and SB's have really dropped off, so I might drop him a couple spots. Trout is STILL the best player on the planet and should be #1 on everyone's list.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

This 2020 first two rounds piece from Scott White at CBS is pretty interesting.  Seeing Anthony Rendon at #10 will make a lot of his fans happy, and with CBS's focus being on points leagues, it's certainly defensible.  I'd have a tough time going that high in 5x5 for a guy who doesn't contribute steals, but in 6x6 with OBP where SBs are devalued and his XBH help his cause, I could see it.

What's really funny, though, is how he sets up the premise of the piece as pushing SPs up and then... doesn't really follow through on it as much as I expected.  The first 5 SPs in 2019 went 4, 10, 11, 21, and 24 according to FantasyPros, while White is suggesting Scherzer at 6, Verlander at 7, Cole at 8, deGrom at 15, and Sale at 16.  That's definitely some movement, but I'd argue that the dearth of aces who go 6-7+ IP on the regular makes all of those names, plus some of the guys from his just-missed tier (Bieber, Buehler, Clevinger, Kershaw, possibly some others) worthy of late 2nd round consideration.

Yes, that means passing on some *really* good bats, and we know how risky these picks are with how often pitchers get hurt, but it's just so hard nowadays to win without stability at the top of the rotation, so if I have to "settle" for a Judge or a Ramirez instead of a Soto or Xander to get an SP1, I'm going to do it./

That.  And the fact that a true ace that throws about 200 innings will account for roughly 1/7 of your pitching stats in leagues with inning limits (obviously varies) whereas a hitter will account for roughly 1/ 10 of your hitting stats (again, obviously varies, but a so should have a bigger impact than a hitter.)

That said, in my opinion,there are way too many risks, not only with a sp, but THESE sps (the 2020,crop of top pitchers).  Cole and degrom seem ok, but I would be very uncomfortable taking verlander, sherzer, kershaw or sale ahead of a stud bat.  Not saying it’s wrong, not even that I wouldn’t do,it, just that *i* would be uncomfortable.   Lots of disappointed guys who took starters in the early rounds this year.  I think that would devalue sps rather than increase their value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Any updates to the way people feel now with baseball almost over?

Two things that have changed for me:

- I now have Bregman top 5 just ahead of Betts. Thats taking into account age, the fact that he's done it 2 straight seasons, giving Trout a run for his MVP this season, the lineup he plays in mixed with his BB/K% (for me this gives him a very high floor and a safe player), and the dual eligibility at SS/3B. Other than Trout, Bellinger (MAYBE for me), Yelich, and Acuna, I don't think I'd take anyone else.

- My love for Bellinger has also changed a bit as an owner, hence why I might take Bregman over him. Since May 1st (after his torrid hot first month), his slash line is .272/.379/.564. I'm super happy with that. But IF that's the hitter he is, I am still taking him top 5, but I would take the other 4 guys over him. If he's a .290-.300 hitter, I want him probably after Trout. The assumption here is that all of these guys in the top 5 are walking and striking out around 13%-17% of the time (except Acuña, but he more than makes that up with the SBs). So to me the only difference between Belli, Yeli, and Bregman will be the BA. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.