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Karl-Anthony Towns 2019-2020 Outlook

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Did not see a thread on big KAT so I thought I would start one. Probably the "safest" guy in the Top 5 discussion. As durable as they come and the Wolves have really hyped him up as they move forward with Ryan Saunders as the coach. 

Originally he was the next guy I would consider after AD in auction drafts next month. After taking a look at his numbers I noticed a definitive trend that i've never really seen discussed regarding his fantasy value. Over his career he has been way better in the 2nd half of the season (post ASB). And each year websites like BBM formulate their projections on him based on his post ASB numbers. Obviously post ASB should be considered when projecting a player but at what point do we acknowledge this trend with KAT.

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Now in terms of rationale one could argue that in 2017-18 Jimmy hurt his knee and missed the majority of the 2nd half which allowed KAT to explode. You could say the same about 18-19 when Jimmy left, Saunders came in and KAT took off. I personally agree with both but we're talking about 4 years of a noticeable trend. It could very well be that you don't get the elite Top 3 talent until post ASB. He's generally being projected around 28 and 13 this year based on how he finished the year under the new regime. Obviously, having  a player hit his peek around H2H playoffs is not a bad thing but there's an obvious trend that suggests he won't be the player we expect him to be for the full 82. If this trend continues my issue is that once he ramps it up I still won't expect true #1 fantasy player numbers. 

Personally i'm beginning to lean towards Curry and Harden because they've shown to be more consistent and have proven they can be the #1 fantasy guy. I still think KAT is a beast, I just wanted to point out a trend I noticed and see what you guys think. He could very well  average 28/13 this year and nobody would be surprised, but I also wont be surprised if we don't see that 28&13 until Feb/March. If this trend extends to 5 years any excuses/rational will become irrelevant and I probably won't consider him in the Top 3/4 going forward.

Again by no means am I down on Towns, I have just tempered my expectations regarding the full 82 game season.

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I like your analysis and you raise valid points.

 

I would like to go on the other end of the spectrum. We could also make a valid argument that those insane post ASB numbers were victim of extensiating circumstances both where the team and KAT as well as coaching adjusted and it all benefits KAT. So I'm just as inclined to believe those post ASB numbers will be more the norm for him as the focal point no matter what will be him carrying this team as the unquestioned leader. Period.

 

This year after seeing those spikes and no Jimmy or coaching shenanigans KAT is hands down my top guy in dynasty cat leagues over EVERYONE

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It is just my opinion, but I think 3rd pick is the highest justified pick for taking KAT, but he could be also 4th/5th. If KAT is not taken inside TOP5 then somebody has done a mistake.

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Considering his durability, in competitive league (any format, roto or H2H) KAT  should be top 3 pick. I have no problems with people taking him 1st or 2nd. You want your round 1 pick  playing  as many games as possible, especially in H2H. 

Per game value can be deceiving. Last year, AD was ranked 2nd in per game value and KAT was 5th according to the BBM.  Who was  better player to own?

Total value tells  different story.  In last 3 years, KAT was ranked 3rd (18/19 - after George and Harden),  2nd (17/18 - after AD)  and 2nd (16/17 - after Curry).

 

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yeah he's top 3 for me

He's just so dam durable

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Just in case I remind you that durability is not a quality which you can maintain every year. Some accidental case and even Towns can miss 10-15 games.

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2 hours ago, apatas said:

Just in case I remind you that durability is not a quality which you can maintain every year. Some accidental case and even Towns can miss 10-15 games.

 

For the average player in today's NBA, sure. But KAT got into a car crash last season and missed only one game, so he's basically nonhuman

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In roto, which I never play, I'd take KAT #1. H2h I go Harden, Curry, AD, Giannis, KAT. AD could rest come playoff time with the Lakers basically guaranteed a playoff spot but hes so ridiculously good in per game value... This years top 5 is fantasy gold. 

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On 9/10/2019 at 9:36 PM, johnval1362 said:

In roto, which I never play, I'd take KAT #1. H2h I go Harden, Curry, AD, Giannis, KAT. AD could rest come playoff time with the Lakers basically guaranteed a playoff spot but hes so ridiculously good in per game value... This years top 5 is fantasy gold. 

 

I'm not so sure about "guaranteed"

In no particular order:

  1. Houston
  2. Utah
  3. GSW
  4. Clips
  5. Spurs
  6. Denver
  7. Portland
  8.  

Battling for the final playoff spot

  1. Lakers (most likely)
  2. Kings (darkhorse)
  3. Dallas (stretch)
  4. Timber (also stretch, but they have the talent)

 

I do not see how it is a guarantee. Outside of LBJ and AD, the team is a joke on paper.

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Edited by crocp
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2 hours ago, crocp said:

 

I'm not so sure about "guaranteed"

In no particular order:

  1. Houston
  2. Utah
  3. GSW
  4. Clips
  5. Spurs
  6. Denver
  7. Portland
  8.  

Battling for the final playoff spot

  1. Lakers (most likely)
  2. Kings (darkhorse)
  3. Dallas (stretch)
  4. Timber (also stretch, but they have the talent)

 

I do not see how it is a guarantee. Outside of LBJ and AD, the team is a joke on paper.

  1.  

This is KAT's thread, and I don't want to hijack it, but really? If AD and Bron are healthy this is a top 4-5 team in the West. Everyone has their own opinion but putting the Lakers in as just barely making it is pretty crazy to me. I'm serious, I cannot wait for this "joke" of a team to start playing so this forum will open their eyes. 

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6 hours ago, crocp said:

 

I'm not so sure about "guaranteed"

In no particular order:

  1. Houston
  2. Utah
  3. GSW
  4. Clips
  5. Spurs
  6. Denver
  7. Portland
  8.  

Battling for the final playoff spot

  1. Lakers (most likely)
  2. Kings (darkhorse)
  3. Dallas (stretch)
  4. Timber (also stretch, but they have the talent)

 

I do not see how it is a guarantee. Outside of LBJ and AD, the team is a joke on paper.

  1.  

I mean oddsmakers over all betting sites who maybe have more sports win predicting intelligence than probably anyone in the world have them as the 2nd most likely team to win the championship. Danny green kuzma are no jokes, and McGee and dwight are great defenders. No chance in hell doncic and zing beat out lebron ad lol. I think spurs are most likely to be 8th seed and maybe knocked out by Dallas. Maybe Portland can't get it done without nurk but I doubt that too. Pop is great but they're getting new upcoming players and are going to have to adapt to each other and see what lineups work and lma gay are getting old, DeRozan can score but their team possibly can't shoot 3s, may have bad spacing but I'm sure they're all working on their 3 pt shot this summer. Pop is great but if anyones squeezed out this year, its the spurs. It will be hard to develop chemistry in the stacked west. 

Kat isn't a winner yet, just a solid player. Their team needs to develop chemistry and Wiggins needs to figure out how to stop being an idiot and use his talent correctly. Teague can't stay on the floor, maybe if he does, and Wiggins gets his act together, timber could take 8th seed but very unlikely. Lakers are better with only lebron than Minnesota. Kats young and durable though, so he wont rest even when wolves are out of the picture so excellent fantasy value. 

This is my order for 2019 2020 regular season standings:

Houston (yes Houston) 

Denver 

Clippers

Lakers 

Utah 

GSW 

Por 

San 

I only have clippers and Lakers not at 1 and 2 because they will rest a lot but one of them, or Houston as my very under rated dark horse will take the ship this year. Clips will win though... 

 

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17 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

I mean oddsmakers over all betting sites who maybe have more sports win predicting intelligence than probably anyone in the world have them as the 2nd most likely team to win the championship. Danny green kuzma are no jokes, and McGee and dwight are great defenders. No chance in hell doncic and zing beat out lebron ad lol. I think spurs are most likely to be 8th seed and maybe knocked out by Dallas. Maybe Portland can't get it done without nurk but I doubt that too. Pop is great but they're getting new upcoming players and are going to have to adapt to each other and see what lineups work and lma gay are getting old, DeRozan can score but their team possibly can't shoot 3s, may have bad spacing but I'm sure they're all working on their 3 pt shot this summer. Pop is great but if anyones squeezed out this year, its the spurs. It will be hard to develop chemistry in the stacked west. 

Kat isn't a winner yet, just a solid player. Their team needs to develop chemistry and Wiggins needs to figure out how to stop being an idiot and use his talent correctly. Teague can't stay on the floor, maybe if he does, and Wiggins gets his act together, timber could take 8th seed but very unlikely. Lakers are better with only lebron than Minnesota. Kats young and durable though, so he wont rest even when wolves are out of the picture so excellent fantasy value. 

This is my order for 2019 2020 regular season standings:

Houston (yes Houston) 

Denver 

Clippers

Lakers 

Utah 

GSW 

Por 

San 

I only have clippers and Lakers not at 1 and 2 because they will rest a lot but one of them, or Houston as my very under rated dark horse will take the ship this year. Clips will win though... 

 

The Clippers will be fine once they get to the playoffs but they could struggle early on. No PG, Kawhi coming off a long season and still being on his load management schedule, in a stacked West. Anyone predicting them to finish top 2-3 regular season is crazy. 

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45 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Danny green kuzma are no jokes, and McGee and dwight are great defenders.

Lakers thread please where we can discuss McGee greatness on defense

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1 hour ago, johnval1362 said:

I mean oddsmakers over all betting sites who maybe have more sports win predicting intelligence than probably anyone in the world have them as the 2nd most likely team to win the championship. Danny green kuzma are no jokes, and McGee and dwight are great defenders. No chance in hell doncic and zing beat out lebron ad lol. I think spurs are most likely to be 8th seed and maybe knocked out by Dallas. Maybe Portland can't get it done without nurk but I doubt that too. Pop is great but they're getting new upcoming players and are going to have to adapt to each other and see what lineups work and lma gay are getting old, DeRozan can score but their team possibly can't shoot 3s, may have bad spacing but I'm sure they're all working on their 3 pt shot this summer. Pop is great but if anyones squeezed out this year, its the spurs. It will be hard to develop chemistry in the stacked west. 

Kat isn't a winner yet, just a solid player. Their team needs to develop chemistry and Wiggins needs to figure out how to stop being an idiot and use his talent correctly. Teague can't stay on the floor, maybe if he does, and Wiggins gets his act together, timber could take 8th seed but very unlikely. Lakers are better with only lebron than Minnesota. Kats young and durable though, so he wont rest even when wolves are out of the picture so excellent fantasy value. 

This is my order for 2019 2020 regular season standings:

Houston (yes Houston) 

Denver 

Clippers

Lakers 

Utah 

GSW 

Por 

San 

I only have clippers and Lakers not at 1 and 2 because they will rest a lot but one of them, or Houston as my very under rated dark horse will take the ship this year. Clips will win though... 

 

 

Just a heads up. It’s chip not ship. 

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20 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

I mean oddsmakers over all betting sites who maybe have more sports win predicting intelligence than probably anyone in the world have them as the 2nd most likely team to win the championship. Danny green kuzma are no jokes, and McGee and dwight are great defenders. No chance in hell doncic and zing beat out lebron ad lol. I think spurs are most likely to be 8th seed and maybe knocked out by Dallas. Maybe Portland can't get it done without nurk but I doubt that too. Pop is great but they're getting new upcoming players and are going to have to adapt to each other and see what lineups work and lma gay are getting old, DeRozan can score but their team possibly can't shoot 3s, may have bad spacing but I'm sure they're all working on their 3 pt shot this summer. Pop is great but if anyones squeezed out this year, its the spurs. It will be hard to develop chemistry in the stacked west. 

Kat isn't a winner yet, just a solid player. Their team needs to develop chemistry and Wiggins needs to figure out how to stop being an idiot and use his talent correctly. Teague can't stay on the floor, maybe if he does, and Wiggins gets his act together, timber could take 8th seed but very unlikely. Lakers are better with only lebron than Minnesota. Kats young and durable though, so he wont rest even when wolves are out of the picture so excellent fantasy value. 

This is my order for 2019 2020 regular season standings:

Houston (yes Houston) 

Denver 

Clippers

Lakers 

Utah 

GSW 

Por 

San 

I only have clippers and Lakers not at 1 and 2 because they will rest a lot but one of them, or Houston as my very under rated dark horse will take the ship this year. Clips will win though... 

 

 

oddsmakers had them finishing top 4 in the west last year too....lolz. How did that work out?

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Oddsmakers don't really project anything, other than their initial line, and even that is going to be influenced by what they think the public believes.  It's merely a reflection of the opinion of the betting public.  LA is the most populous U.S. city and a s--- ton of people are Lakers fans outside of LA.  Betting against the Lakers would generally be a good idea.  Not because I am a hater but because their popularity is going to have them overrepresented in the odds.  Betting on someone like the Magic or Jazz would generally be a good idea for the opposite reasons.  I think if you knew nothing about sports but consistently bet on the Jazz, you'd make money for the simple fact that their lack of popularity will have them undervalued, and they're consistently competitive.  Either way, I wouldn't use the betting public as a metric for team success.  Now if Haralabos Voulgaris has something to say, I'll at least listen.  

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1 hour ago, crocp said:

 

oddsmakers had them finishing top 4 in the west last year too....lolz. How did that work out?

Lebron got injured lol. Last year is a wash. And considering he is one of the most durable players in nba history their prediction made total sense. 

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

Oddsmakers don't really project anything, other than their initial line, and even that is going to be influenced by what they think the public believes.  It's merely a reflection of the opinion of the betting public.  LA is the most populous U.S. city and a s--- ton of people are Lakers fans outside of LA.  Betting against the Lakers would generally be a good idea.  Not because I am a hater but because their popularity is going to have them overrepresented in the odds.  Betting on someone like the Magic or Jazz would generally be a good idea for the opposite reasons.  I think if you knew nothing about sports but consistently bet on the Jazz, you'd make money for the simple fact that their lack of popularity will have them undervalued, and they're consistently competitive.  Either way, I wouldn't use the betting public as a metric for team success.  Now if Haralabos Voulgaris has something to say, I'll at least listen.  

I agree that any team lebron will be on will have oddsmakers a bit in their favor but it's not going to be too excessive. There is also a ton of lebron haters and they can't skew it too much or pro betters will see right through it. But yeah if I bet on sports I'd take definitely takes Houstons line or the Jazz this year if I wanted to bet outside of fantasy. Would highly consider GSW too as they will have a similar team to their 70+ win season except an upgrade of Russell vs barnes. 

Edited by johnval1362

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16 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Oddsmakers don't really project anything, other than their initial line, and even that is going to be influenced by what they think the public believes.  It's merely a reflection of the opinion of the betting public.  LA is the most populous U.S. city and a s--- ton of people are Lakers fans outside of LA.  Betting against the Lakers would generally be a good idea.  Not because I am a hater but because their popularity is going to have them overrepresented in the odds.  Betting on someone like the Magic or Jazz would generally be a good idea for the opposite reasons.  I think if you knew nothing about sports but consistently bet on the Jazz, you'd make money for the simple fact that their lack of popularity will have them undervalued, and they're consistently competitive.  Either way, I wouldn't use the betting public as a metric for team success.  Now if Haralabos Voulgaris has something to say, I'll at least listen.  

Correction sir.NYC is the most populous city in USA. Not LA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

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On 9/14/2019 at 7:35 AM, johnval1362 said:

Lebron got injured lol. Last year is a wash. And considering he is one of the most durable players in nba history their prediction made total sense. 

 

he is getting older though. Lebron is a freak but generally "older" = more injuries (or they last longer)

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Yes, again people talking about other things here, but I also think that Towns thread is by now (before preseason) completed because everyone agree he is a TOP3 pick. There is nothing to debate.

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1 hour ago, apatas said:

Yes, again people talking about other things here, but I also think that Towns thread is by now (before preseason) completed because everyone agree he is a TOP3 pick. There is nothing to debate.

He’s also one of the top 3 most durable players.  Only Ingles comes to mind as having been more durable.  So we can’t even talk about that. 

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