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wildcat62

Brook Lopez 2019-2020 Outlook

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Can he repeat his numbers from last year? What round do you take him in ? Pairings?

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I grabbed him in the 5th & chose him over a couple of other higher ranked players. My fingers are crossed he can repeat last seasons. #'s. 

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The most important what I noticed from his game log, that his stats were not consistent. He had some fantastic spells and then poor games. Mostly it depended on how much he succeeded behind 3-point line. In H2H it meant about 5-6 weeks Lopez was very valuable, but the same number he had almost empty weeks. Usually I draft players who have too much "empty games" 1-2 round later than their ADP. It means Brook Lopez not before 5th round.

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5th is not a reach but there are some factors I'm considering making me hope he falls to the 6th tbh.

His game should continue to age reasonably well, but I'm worried that at age 31 they tone his minutes down from the 29 they were last season to 27ish and things all take a little dip.

Yes Brogdon is gone but I'm thinking the ones taking on more usage will be Middleton, Giannis, and whoever they plug in Brogdon's place (prolly Wes), not BroLo, so I don't see any reason to boost him for that. 

His 2.2 blocks per game last season also weren't just a recent high, they were a career high - higher than his blocks even when he was playing 35-36 minutes per night. The only other time he was above 1.8 blocks was 7 years ago in his prime. The most recent seasons were 1.3, 1.7, and 1.7, so tbh I think last season was a bit of an outlier there. The discrepancy worries me.

 

Tbh their depth lowkey kinda sucks for a team expected to be top 2 in the East, so he does have that going for him and maybe he doesn't dip, but in the 5th guys like Adebayo, JJJ, and Capela are sometimes dropping and at their ADPs Thomas Bryant and J-Val are there. But if those guys are all gone I'm looking at BroLo, but still a little wary of dropoffs.

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27 minutes ago, s-kayos said:

5th is not a reach but there are some factors I'm considering making me hope he falls to the 6th tbh.

His game should continue to age reasonably well, but I'm worried that at age 31 they tone his minutes down from the 29 they were last season to 27ish and things all take a little dip.

Yes Brogdon is gone but I'm thinking the ones taking on more usage will be Middleton, Giannis, and whoever they plug in Brogdon's place (prolly Wes), not BroLo, so I don't see any reason to boost him for that. 

His 2.2 blocks per game last season also weren't just a recent high, they were a career high - higher than his blocks even when he was playing 35-36 minutes per night. The only other time he was above 1.8 blocks was 7 years ago in his prime. The most recent seasons were 1.3, 1.7, and 1.7, so tbh I think last season was a bit of an outlier there. The discrepancy worries me.

 

Tbh their depth lowkey kinda sucks for a team expected to be top 2 in the East, so he does have that going for him and maybe he doesn't dip, but in the 5th guys like Adebayo, JJJ, and Capela are sometimes dropping and at their ADPs Thomas Bryant and J-Val are there. But if those guys are all gone I'm looking at BroLo, but still a little wary of dropoffs.

 

The discrepancy in his blocks can be one hundred percent attributed to the MIL defensive scheme.  They funneled players towards the middle and dared players to take tough floaters (which most don't like to), while Brook would drop back and protect the basket. He's deceptively stretchy at the last second and has great timing.  Coach Bud is still there and they had the #1 defense in the league last season, so the scheme won't change. All this to say, there is no reason he can't do it again.

 

Here is an example in a March game where he had 7 blocks.

 

Edited by jay14bay
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The 5th round is exactly where I am planning on drafting him if he is there.

Being solely in Roto, the stretches of good games/bad games won't be a factor like in H2H.

The career high in blocks does not worry me either.  The 1.3 was a direct result of stupid Luke Walton benching him every 4th quarter - his per 36 that year was the same as other years. But even if he were to go back down to the 1.7 - 1.8 range, its the threes and blocks combo that makes him so valuable.

 

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8 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

The 5th round is exactly where I am planning on drafting him if he is there.

Being solely in Roto, the stretches of good games/bad games won't be a factor like in H2H.

The career high in blocks does not worry me either.  The 1.3 was a direct result of stupid Luke Walton benching him every 4th quarter - his per 36 that year was the same as other years. But even if he were to go back down to the 1.7 - 1.8 range, its the threes and blocks combo that makes him so valuable.

 

 

And if he is in the 1.7 -1.8 range he should be still good for 5th round value rather than the 3rd round value he was at I'm guessing, but that's why I'm really hoping he falls a bit later because drafting guys at their actual value is fine but I don't see the upside for him to be any better than last season, I think most signs point to slight regression in possibly minutes, possibly blocks, possibly age-related decline, regressions to the mean, etc. I think it's underrated how hard it is to block more than 2 shots in multiple seasons. That said again, I think he's a great mid-round pick.

He's a 3-pt shooting Myles Turner you can get about 20 or more picks later, that's amazing.

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I love high variance guys like Covington and Lopez (if you consider him that) for H2H. If I can pickup 1 or 2 guys like that in the middle rounds based on season long ranks, I will roll the dice on them winning me a category almost single handed in the playoffs. I would much rather draft a guy in the 5th round who could put up 2nd or 8th round value any given week than someone who will give me 4-6 round value week in and week out. The delta on 2nd or 3rd round value compared to 5th is a lot larger than the difference in 5th to 8th. 

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On 9/13/2019 at 8:56 AM, s-kayos said:

 

And if he is in the 1.7 -1.8 range he should be still good for 5th round value rather than the 3rd round value he was at I'm guessing, but that's why I'm really hoping he falls a bit later because drafting guys at their actual value is fine but I don't see the upside for him to be any better than last season, I think most signs point to slight regression in possibly minutes, possibly blocks, possibly age-related decline, regressions to the mean, etc. I think it's underrated how hard it is to block more than 2 shots in multiple seasons. That said again, I think he's a great mid-round pick.

He's a 3-pt shooting Myles Turner you can get about 20 or more picks later, that's amazing.

 

Yes I am doing a slow draft now and picking at the end of round 1, and would seriously consider him for my 4th round pick, being that he likely won't make it back to me in the late 5th, but I definitely don't want to take him in the 4th, I would rather wait and hope he makes it back to me in the 5th.  My team construct seems like it needs 3's and blocks and he's the perfect player at that point. 

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Got him in the 6th round and very happy with that. That combination of 3s and blocks is just too juicy. Now that there's no Brogdon, he might even up his scoring a little bit

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6 hours ago, fabrar said:

Got him in the 6th round and very happy with that. That combination of 3s and blocks is just too juicy. Now that there's no Brogdon, he might even up his scoring a little bit

 

Imo Wes Matthews’ usage this year will not be far off from Brogdon’s last year, so I’m expecting Brook’s usage to be on par with last year. 

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Another one of those roto guys who people have struggles properly assessing for H2H.  Top 30 value.  13/5 with 2+ blocks and 2+ threes.  Excellent FT/TO for a center.  As others have pointed out, there is a lot of variance in blocks so when a player's value is largely based on blocks and efficiency it makes for an interesting conundrum.  He will have games were he goes 10/4 with 1 block and it's just trash.  If that corresponds to a crucial moment in the fantasy playoffs then a bad week from him can crush you.  On the other hand he has upside for 10 blocks/10 threes a week which really puts you over the top in those cats, not to mention his efficiency.  Then come the punts.  There's all sorts of punts he crushes in.  Top 25 in punt points.  Top 25 in punt assists or punt steals.  Top 15 if you're punting both.  I have him in an interesting punt FG/rebs build where he's top 20.  I got Brolo, Horford, etc on the cheap.  Gave up on rebs/FG but tried to get bigs with blocks, efficiency, and out of position stats.  He's a great top 30 pick in roto.  In H2H sure it requires some work but in the right punt he can be even better than he is in roto. 

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18 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Another one of those roto guys who people have struggles properly assessing for H2H.  Top 30 value.  13/5 with 2+ blocks and 2+ threes.  Excellent FT/TO for a center.  As others have pointed out, there is a lot of variance in blocks so when a player's value is largely based on blocks and efficiency it makes for an interesting conundrum.  He will have games were he goes 10/4 with 1 block and it's just trash.  If that corresponds to a crucial moment in the fantasy playoffs then a bad week from him can crush you.  On the other hand he has upside for 10 blocks/10 threes a week which really puts you over the top in those cats, not to mention his efficiency.  Then come the punts.  There's all sorts of punts he crushes in.  Top 25 in punt points.  Top 25 in punt assists or punt steals.  Top 15 if you're punting both.  I have him in an interesting punt FG/rebs build where he's top 20.  I got Brolo, Horford, etc on the cheap.  Gave up on rebs/FG but tried to get bigs with blocks, efficiency, and out of position stats.  He's a great top 30 pick in roto.  In H2H sure it requires some work but in the right punt he can be even better than he is in roto. 

 

I actually target Lopez in roto over Myles Turner and Kristaps - as you're basically drafting them for blocks and 3's (and points for Kristaps).  But for total value I wouldn't be surprised if Lopez beats them both, and you can usually get him in the 5th or sometimes the 6th, whereas Turner and Porzingis are usually going around the 3rd.  He's one of the safest players imo, and adding him can vault you towards the top in blocks (granted you already have a high blocks guy or a combo of bigs that get over a block), while chipping in elite 3's for a center.  I've passed on high 3's and points players like Hield in the 4th, although I love him (and hopefully are good in points and 3s anyway), I want the out of position 3's and the high blocks from Lopez in the 5th...

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5 minutes ago, deathrazor said:

Will you take him even if Lowry is still available? They have the same ADP in yahoo.

Depends on what you need. Completely different players so it's hard to judge who's "better" at that ADP. Lowry if you need assists and brook if you need blocks. Their 3s will be around the same and Lowry will score a little more. 

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It’s not just assists, Lowry will double his steals, get more points and threes as well.  Lopez pretty much just has an advantage blocks.  Lowry also kills your FG/TO while Lopez doesn’t.  Lowry is a top 25 guy in punt FG/To. Lopez has low FG/Rebs for a big man.  They’re both most useful on punt FG teams and overall I prefer Lowry but when you need blocks and/or a center I guess Lopez is your guy.  

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Brook putting up what, 3rd, 2nd round value after today's gem? Love this guy and Rotoworld should be ashamed for saying2059510217_ScreenShot2019-10-28at10_33_24PM.png.cbaf75892c5bc39579ded81d77b995d1.png

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16 hours ago, mattshhh said:

Brook putting up what, 3rd, 2nd round value after today's gem? Love this guy and Rotoworld should be ashamed for saying2059510217_ScreenShot2019-10-28at10_33_24PM.png.cbaf75892c5bc39579ded81d77b995d1.png

 

He is the definition of sexy. 

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Rotoworld news outlet didnt even address him. I checked box score he only had 2 fouls. Wtf happened with him in a game they scored over 120 points.

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2 minutes ago, Johnnyapplebot said:

No news on this night? Only 3 damn points in 25 minutes. Drop candidate cause wtf happened.

Absolutely not. He's been a top 40 player before tonight, and the Bucks are a fantastic team with him on the floor. The problem has always been low usage, but good luck replacing his 2 triples & 2 blocks on waivers.

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Just now, mattshhh said:

Absolutely not. He's been a top 40 player before tonight, and the Bucks are a fantastic team with him on the floor. The problem has always been low usage, but good luck replacing his 2 triples & 2 blocks on waivers.

Dont get me wrong thats why i drafted him. My immediate thought after seeing his line was that he got injured. But hes healthy and posted that? Im extremely confused.

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All he did was hit 1 three pointer on 6 shot attempts with 1 shot being a non 3 pointer and no other stats. I obviously didnt watch the game but wtf?

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2 minutes ago, Johnnyapplebot said:

Dont get me wrong thats why i drafted him. My immediate thought after seeing his line was that he got injured. But hes healthy and posted that? Im extremely confused.

It's one game. Go look at his game log from last year he will put up some duds here and there. Just is what it is man...relax.

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