IcemanIL

Paul George 2019-2020 Outlook

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2 hours ago, atlantadynasty said:

so out 10 games at least, then another 5 during the year minimum for resting then another 5 games till he gets 100% rhythm = 65 games = 3rd round value at best? 9-cat roto, given he replicates the same numbers as last year which were exceptional

 

what you guys think?

I’d actually put him more around 60.  And I think you’re correct that it would be difficult for him to play up to last year’s numbers given that it was an outlier for him and he will be returning from injury.  However, he has been a consistent top 12 guy most of his career, so I’d expect 60 games of top 12 value.  However, your math in devaluing him to the third is flawed.  For one there will be other players in the second who miss 20+ games.  Two, you can’t merely look at the totals bc if he misses 20 games you’ll have a replacement level player for 20 games.  It’s not as punitive to miss 20 games as you may think.  I’d still put him above guys ranked around 25-30 who will miss fewer games, such as LMA or Siakam.  

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10 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I’d actually put him more around 60.  And I think you’re correct that it would be difficult for him to play up to last year’s numbers given that it was an outlier for him and he will be returning from injury.  However, he has been a consistent top 12 guy most of his career, so I’d expect 60 games of top 12 value.  However, your math in devaluing him to the third is flawed.  For one there will be other players in the second who miss 20+ games.  Two, you can’t merely look at the totals bc if he misses 20 games you’ll have a replacement level player for 20 games.  It’s not as punitive to miss 20 games as you may think.  I’d still put him above guys ranked around 25-30 who will miss fewer games, such as LMA or Siakam.  

I agree 60 games sounds right. There is now a lot of risk with George imo and the red flags are blinking like a Christmas tree. In addition to the "new team, new system" risk, we now have to wonder how many games he misses. I also worry about what two major surgeries to his shoulders may mean to his shot mechanics? No one is talking about this and there is probably no risk at all, however I dont want to own him to find out. I personally wouldn't even begin to look at him until the early 4th round and even there I would proceed with great great caution.....

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On 10/12/2019 at 4:19 PM, StifleTower2 said:

Computer issues forced me to auto draft him for $50 in a 16 team. I was livid until I saw people with money at the end of the draft do things such as Sabonis and Isaac for $33 each.  Then I didn’t feel so bad.  Managed to craft an interesting punt FG/Reb build.

 

Time to reinvest your FBB winnings on a new computer? 😂

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I have him in a 16 team H2H where I accidentally autodrafted him for $50.  But I think I recovered nicely. After some trades, punting FG/TO: Westbrook, LaVine, George, Horford, Brolo is my starting five.  Pretty decent bench for a 16 team league with Lowry, Sexton, Barton, Winslow, Zeller, Powell.  BBM has my starting five way ahead in counting stats and given that it’s H2H I should be good as long as plays during the fantasy playoffs.  Really crossing my fingers here.  But yeah wouldn’t target him intentionally. 

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3 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

Time to reinvest your FBB winnings on a new computer? 😂

It’s not the computer.  It’s the internet.  I live in a slightly remote area, there’s only one internet provider for my town, and there’s only one box.  So you can have high speed one minute then unusable slow the next.  

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31 minutes ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

I agree 60 games sounds right. There is now a lot of risk with George imo and the red flags are blinking like a Christmas tree. In addition to the "new team, new system" risk, we now have to wonder how many games he misses. I also worry about what two major surgeries to his shoulders may mean to his shot mechanics? No one is talking about this and there is probably no risk at all, however I dont want to own him to find out. I personally wouldn't even begin to look at him until the early 4th round and even there I would proceed with great great caution.....

4th round lol, that’s laughable, if he drops anywhere near the end of the 2nd round would be a massive steal.

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Just now, Kobe824 said:

4th round lol, that’s laughable, if he drops anywhere near the end of the 2nd round would be a massive steal.

Laughable to you. I have my personal risk tolerance, so we'll agree to disagree.  

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I play in a single keeper 12t H2H 9-cat league and am debating keeping him with the 2nd round, 18th overall pick vs. keeping either Thomas Bryant or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with my 13th round pick (151st overall). Seems like I clearly go with Bryant, but having the 7th overall pick primes me to possibly go for Lillard who I think pairs well with PG.

Go Bryant, SGA, or PG?

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3 hours ago, CrooningLoon said:

I play in a single keeper 12t H2H 9-cat league and am debating keeping him with the 2nd round, 18th overall pick vs. keeping either Thomas Bryant or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with my 13th round pick (151st overall). Seems like I clearly go with Bryant, but having the 7th overall pick primes me to possibly go for Lillard who I think pairs well with PG.

Go Bryant, SGA, or PG?

 

I know you're a new guy here - post your question on the AC forum to get it answered

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Drafted him 34th overall.  I wasn't looking to grab him, but when he fell that deep I was shocked. He will definitely miss near 20 games, but he is a steal in the 3rd round imo.

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37 minutes ago, Trade Monster said:

Drafted him 34th overall.  I wasn't looking to grab him, but when he fell that deep I was shocked. He will definitely miss near 20 games, but he is a steal in the 3rd round imo.

damn that's a steal. good job

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6 hours ago, squidthunder said:

 

I know you're a new guy here - post your question on the AC forum to get it answered

 

oops thank you for letting me know!

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Got him at 23 and idk if this is the greatest hint, but he currently has the 7th best odds of being MVP. Hopefully some insider info has him closer to 10 games.

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On 10/17/2019 at 6:50 AM, squidthunder said:

 

I know you're a new guy here - post your question on the AC forum to get it answered

I can't post there until I have 10 posts elsewhere, which I won't have time for.

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35 minutes ago, CrooningLoon said:

I can't post there until I have 10 posts elsewhere, which I won't have time for.

 

Sorry dude - those are the rules. You're welcome to make correct posts in other topics/threads/player topics to build up the # of posts

 

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30 minutes ago, squidthunder said:

 

Sorry dude - those are the rules. You're welcome to make correct posts in other topics/threads/player topics to build up the # of posts

 

I'm good. Thanks though!

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I dont envision any scenario where George plays more than 60 games this year. Shoulder surgeries are no joke; this is an incredibly complicated joint. This idea that he's going to come back without major rust is ridiculous. The clippers will, rightfully, prioritize his health and performance to peak for the playoffs. So many red-flags here that I am staying away for fantasy purposes

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He is a great value pick in my opinion. Even at 60 games his total value should get him near top20 and if he is healthy for playoffs you get a top10 player. If you can weather a 3 week storm(which is not a disaster) he will be a game changer at his ADP.

Edited by RipCity0

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2 hours ago, RipCity0 said:

He is a great value pick in my opinion. Even at 60 games his total value should get him near top20 and if he is healthy for playoffs you get a top10 player. If you can weather a 3 week storm(which is not a disaster) he will be a game changer at his ADP.

 

He would have to play at a top 3 level on a per-game basis to have top 20 value at 60 games (there's a very realistic possibility he misses more games than this). That is more than 25% of the season and depending on when your playoffs start, that could equate to missing 40% of your season. 

Even assuming no rust, do you think PG plays 37 mins a game like he did last year? No chance. He'll be closer to 31-32. That is not a game-changer at his ADP, in fact, its a loss. Factor in the complications of shoulder rehab and it becomes clear to me that PG is a DND player. Maybe I am too risk-averse but again, too many red flags here to me to invest an early round pick.

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bruh tho bruh PG finished #3 overall in 9-cat leagues last season

Edited by driss lol

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Stashing and just trying to stay afloat until November.

 

Fellow PG owners prob going to be very busy on WW first couple of weeks 

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