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Mikhov

Jaren Jackson Jr 2019-2020 Outlook

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OK thanks, late third or 4th. I have 34th and 39th pick. However I am not sure I use one of these two picks for JJJ. It depends who are available.

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2 hours ago, apatas said:

Nobody has here said in what round they plan to draft JJJ. But I did a calculation by numbers what thread starter gave ( 17 ppg (48%, 77%), 1.6 3PM, 7 rpg, 2 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.7 bpg with 2 TO) and calculated his BBM rank last season: +0,22 which was 30th place. It means JJJ is 3rd round target?

 

I mentioned picking him up at 39th, and that seems to be the right range for him (~40). I feel like he should end up placing ahead of guys like:

- Siakam (unless he maintains his efficiency while dropping 20+ppg and adds more rebounds and gets 2+ combined stocks)

- Tobias (Feels like a finished product, 20ppg 2+ 3PM, great efficiency cats but little else)

- Fox (unless he addresses atleast one of his three weak efficiency cats / adds 2 3PM)

- J collins: 20/10 + excellent fg but not much else

but in the same range as:

- Horford (underrated 9 cat beast year in / year out but counting stats will take a slight hit across the board, though threes should increase as they need him to bomb with their starting 5: Should be a lock for 12-7-4 + 1.5-1-1.2 with 50/80/2 TO)

- Conley (Trad guard stats incarnate, but usage and playmaking will be divided with mitchell and ingles among others).

- Lowry (his 3PM, assists and scoring will spike early, but doubt this is sustainable throughout the season)

Because of:

- His length, athleticism, excellent shot selection and offensive versatility. He’ll get by most bigs and shoot over or hook it over smaller players.

- A better system: Former ATL / MIL assistant coach that preaches pace and space + young talent to run with = sold

- His defensive instincts were already above the average veteran level as a rookie, timing is great + aforementioned physical traits.

- His work in the offseason regimen focused primarilly on getting stronger, so he won’t just be pushed around anymore. He will at the very least, compete for rebounds and be able to hold his ground better than he did last year.

- Mature for a 20 year old, not pouting over playing time or touches. Spends time / mentored by the likes of KG (KG reached out) and Draymond (Michigan alumni)

- His stats last year were accumulated in just 26 minutes on a team that ranked 30th in pace. Drooling at what he can realistically do with 30 mpg in a high octane system. 

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This dude’s preseason is my most anticipated out of anyone. I really want to see how he does because although I am still leaning Bam over him due to the assists factor if I had to choose between them, I truly believe JJJ is going to be an absolute stud this year.

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In many cases JJJ is projected clearly behind Thomas Bryant. What you think about it? I personally put JJJ ahead of him.

Edited by apatas

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14 hours ago, apatas said:

In many cases JJJ is projected clearly behind Thomas Bryant. What you think about it? I personally put JJJ ahead of him.

Can't go wrong either way this season, but i'd prefer to take the slight gamble on JJJ's much higher upside. Whenever you have a chance to pick a face of the franchise player you take it.

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21 hours ago, apatas said:

In many cases JJJ is projected clearly behind Thomas Bryant. What you think about it? I personally put JJJ ahead of him.

 

To be fair, TB has a higher floor IMO: He should essentially be one of the league leaders at double doubles. One could compare him statistically to JV or young Vooch: Great efficiency and rebounding, midteen scoring + MAYBE a block and a three. 

Had to dig as JJJ is a little more difficult to project. He could pull a 2015-16 Giannis statistically:

16.9 ppg on 50% fg, 7.2 rpg, 1.2 spg and 1.4 bpg but with better ft (~77%), threes (~1.5) and less TO (2) but without Giannis’ assists of 4.3, I have him at 2 apg.

I see assists as JJJ’s only weak cat. It would be reasonable for his fg% to take a hit, but with his shot selection and natural gifts, he should be able to maintain solid fg%.

Hopefully he can improve from the line, (which should be the case as he has good touch) and keep his TO (and fouls!) down.

Edited by Mikhov
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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

pair with Kristaps and punt reb?

Would probably be a great combo together. I actually think they are very similar fantasy players. I personally like my big men to rebound better (a reason I've traded away JJJ and Turner in some leagues), but JJJ and KP would be stock gods together from the 4/5, and that's hard to find. 

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1 hour ago, RedRaider27 said:

Would probably be a great combo together. I actually think they are very similar fantasy players. I personally like my big men to rebound better (a reason I've traded away JJJ and Turner in some leagues), but JJJ and KP would be stock gods together from the 4/5, and that's hard to find. 

yea go guard heavy then could also add brolo with kp and jjj. 

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Posted (edited)
On 9/27/2019 at 11:58 AM, therealmikeshinoda said:

this guy is definitely round 3 pick ... in this year, JJJ is hotter prospect than Clint Capela or Dev Booker.

 

I would still grab both of those guys a round before I grab JJJ as they are both well established. 

Capela is a steady late 2nd traditional big who I think will benefit from RWB more than CP3.

Concerns about him losing rebounds are overblown, as whatever boards RWB steals from him on the defensive end (assuming they let him pad for the sake of padding like OKC did which isnt likely) will be compensated when RWB takes bad shots on the offensive end as Capela is more than capable of crashing the glass and feasting on putbacks.

When Harden sits, the chemistry RWB had with Adams via the PnR will also translate well with Capela, so his scoring should still be in the mid-high teens.

Booker is pretty much a poor man’s Lillard and should turn in a healthier season if he isnt playing thib minutes. 25ppg, 2.5 3pm, free throw anchor with volume and 4-5 assists should be a lock when he does play.

Rubio should be able to take pressure off him (allowing rest) as he is very capable of running the offense when Book sits (whereas they had Melton, Ullis and Okobo over the past few years). Big upgrade there. 

Another year of development from Bridges, Ayton and Oubre should also make things easier for him. Saric is a wild card who can handle some facilitation and maybe he finally develops a go to move. Either way, these guys + Rubio should be able to punish teams for throwing 2-3 guys onto Book.

While i’m really high on JJJ, I find it hard to project him breaking into the top 25 this season. There are just too many great established players and good above average players whose outlooks improved this offseason.

It is especially hard to accurately project rankings this offseason, because of all the player movement. So one shouldnt gamble too heavily in the first two rounds (the top 30 picks) IMO this season, more than ever - Just ask the people who drafted Ben Simmons or Mitchell as foundational pieces in the teens or early twenties last season.

Edited by Mikhov
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Posted (edited)

Is JJJ worthy of a keeper in a three keeper league? I have Jrue Holiday and Bradley Beal that I know I will keep. The last spot is between JJJ, Lauri Markkanen, and Pascal Siakim. 

Edited by Nate1213

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3 minutes ago, a-rob said:

You're keeping Beal and Jrue already right?

Ahh, yes. Sorry I misunderstood. So would you keep JJJ over Pascal? 

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I know I know. Just trying to have a conversation about JJJ. I think he will light it up in this fast paced offense. 

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I prefer Isaac 3 or more rounds later for similar stats except points and fg%

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8 hours ago, 12345game10 said:

all aboard the train

Curry/Vucevic/JJJ

are gonna be my dynamic trio

 

Steph and Vuc is an amazing pairing 

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I have also question about JJJ. I have 34th and 39th pick in my only standard league draft. JJJ too early as 39th pick?

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10 minutes ago, apatas said:

I have also question about JJJ. I have 34th and 39th pick in my only standard league draft. JJJ too early as 39th pick?

I've seen him being drafted earlier than that. People are reaching so dunno

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13 hours ago, MilesBridgesBetterThanZion said:

What's the highest/most spent on JJJ you've seen non-mock?

He got nominated sort of late in the 12 team auction I just did and I got him for $21. Excited to see what he will do this season presumably being fully unleashed from the jump. 

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