MilesBridgesBetterThanZion

Joel Embiid 2019-2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2854176-video-76ers-star-joel-embiid-reveals-he-lost-25-pounds-this-offseason

 

I was waiting for this. 25 pounds shed before training camp confirmed. Horford shouldn't detract from his value too much at all, he's 34 years old. If anything he should relieve Embiid just enough. He's the face of the franchise, the face of trash talking. With absolutely zero mention of load management, I think in a dream fantasy scenario is on the cards, Embiid at 25 years old with a very healthy ego may just be prepping himself for an MVP run. For the first 2-3 months of last season he in was in the MVP race/discussion.

I can understand taking him at the turn of the first round, but we could very easily see a top 3-5 return from this unique talent. The million dollar asterisk of course is barring injury, but with that weight loss i'm more than willing to gamble. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

towns and embiid will have the same stats. easily a top5 if not injury prone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In his statline the biggest question is: games played. Certainly he is TOP8 pick by his other numbers, but will he play at least 70 games? I predict 60-65.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Embiid is my second favorite player and even hearing about the weight loss - he still is a load management no-go for me.

I drafted Embiid for the past two years in the second round (he won't make it past the first this year) and have won with him.  Taking an injury risk is one thing, and I am fine with taking injury risks with guys because it is not guaranteed that anyone will stay healthy. 

But to know that if I were to pick him in the first, that he will be capped at 65 games max because of load management, I just can't do it. 

And yes, pretty much all superstars will now sit out a few games here and there because of load management.  But it won't be 20 games like with guys like Embiid and Kawhi.  And that is the difference. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is a difference between load management and injury, IMO. Load management should not result in 20+ games missed. That is absurd and more than there are B2B, which the NBA has been trying to further reduce year over year to combat the rest. Kawhi last year was an outlier and not the norm. The Raptors had him miss at least 7 games just to extend his rest periods and he played 60 games last year. I think they gave Kawhi a couple periods of a week off throughout the season. I think the Sixers have 13 or 14 B2B this year. 

I think you can expect Embiid to miss 10 games for load management. If he is on the path for MVP and all of that stuff he isn't going to sit more than they force him to. I have zero concerns about his minutes. Everything runs through him when he is on the court. End of story. 26 minutes. 30 minutes. 34 minutes....doesn't really matter because they will force feed him like they always do. I think he relieves Horford more than Horford relieves him. Horford has almost zero impact on Embiid IMO. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, thezing1 said:

There is a difference between load management and injury, IMO. Load management should not result in 20+ games missed. That is absurd and more than there are B2B, which the NBA has been trying to further reduce year over year to combat the rest. Kawhi last year was an outlier and not the norm. The Raptors had him miss at least 7 games just to extend his rest periods and he played 60 games last year. I think they gave Kawhi a couple periods of a week off throughout the season. I think the Sixers have 13 or 14 B2B this year. 

I think you can expect Embiid to miss 10 games for load management. If he is on the path for MVP and all of that stuff he isn't going to sit more than they force him to. I have zero concerns about his minutes. Everything runs through him when he is on the court. End of story. 26 minutes. 30 minutes. 34 minutes....doesn't really matter because they will force feed him like they always do. I think he relieves Horford more than Horford relieves him. Horford has almost zero impact on Embiid IMO. 

 

Yes there is a difference and you would think 20+ games for load management is extreme and absurd, but it happened.  And they won doing that.  So was Kawhi really just an outlier, or is this how teams will manage certain superstars with an injury history going forward with that Kawhi blueprint given the success it had? 

I believe there is a high chance it will become the norm because it was successful and Kawhi admitted how much it did for him.  Of course I could be wrong and it may not be the norm.  And Embiid might truly only miss 10 games max and no other games due to an actual injury.  But where I am willing to take an injury chance because injuries can happen to anyone, I would rather just avoid the annoyance of the load management guys.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think if he's skinnier / better shape that might mitigate some of the injury risk, but he'll still sit games, I agree about 10 or so depending.  If he can cut his TO just a little, and eek out closer to 1 steal / game...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

Yes there is a difference and you would think 20+ games for load management is extreme and absurd, but it happened.  And they won doing that.  So was Kawhi really just an outlier, or is this how teams will manage certain superstars with an injury history going forward with that Kawhi blueprint given the success it had? 

I believe there is a high chance it will become the norm because it was successful and Kawhi admitted how much it did for him.  Of course I could be wrong and it may not be the norm.  And Embiid might truly only miss 10 games max and no other games due to an actual injury.  But where I am willing to take an injury chance because injuries can happen to anyone, I would rather just avoid the annoyance of the load management guys.

It falls in outlier category for me. The rest didn't determine or allow them to win the championship. The injuries to Klay, KD, and Cousins allow it to happen. 

The West doesn't really allow for rest like Kawhi had. If you give your top player multiple weeks off during the season your chances of missing the postseason increase substantially. In the East it can probably happen unless you want home court, which is a real possibility. 

I think we are probably closer to the same side of this argument or discussion. I think the league as a whole is probably 80% load management risk. The 20% is the 7-9ish seeds that can't afford to take a day off. It is frustrating from a fantasy perspective. Giannis should rest 10-20 games. Simmons should rest 10-15 games. The list can go on and on and on the opposite end of the spectrum you have the tank teams where any smell of injury is an excuse to shut a guy down. It is awful and fantasy basketball is worse off because of it. 

The only real hope is for guys that are competitors and have their financial future & contracts wrapped up. Kawhi needed to mitigate risk for his long term. This year he should be down to play a lot more. Embiid needs to play 65+ games to be a realistic MVP candidate. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, thezing1 said:

It falls in outlier category for me. The rest didn't determine or allow them to win the championship. The injuries to Klay, KD, and Cousins allow it to happen. 

The West doesn't really allow for rest like Kawhi had. If you give your top player multiple weeks off during the season your chances of missing the postseason increase substantially. In the East it can probably happen unless you want home court, which is a real possibility. 

I think we are probably closer to the same side of this argument or discussion. I think the league as a whole is probably 80% load management risk. The 20% is the 7-9ish seeds that can't afford to take a day off. It is frustrating from a fantasy perspective. Giannis should rest 10-20 games. Simmons should rest 10-15 games. The list can go on and on and on the opposite end of the spectrum you have the tank teams where any smell of injury is an excuse to shut a guy down. It is awful and fantasy basketball is worse off because of it. 

The only real hope is for guys that are competitors and have their financial future & contracts wrapped up. Kawhi needed to mitigate risk for his long term. This year he should be down to play a lot more. Embiid needs to play 65+ games to be a realistic MVP candidate. 

Kawhi said himself that he wouldn't be playing  in finals  without load management.  Remove Kawhi from Raptors roster in finals, and it is  a very close series with small edge (finals experience) to GSW.  So yes, the rest allowed Kawhi to play in the finals and  we won because Kawhi was playing.  I don't think it is an outlier.

We will see same situation with Embiid, with rest  during regular season to keep him fresh for playoffs. Maybe not 20 games, I am expecting  12-16 game range

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

 Remove Kawhi from Raptors roster in finals, and it is  a very close series with small edge (finals experience) to GSW. 


I'd say it would not be that close but understand fan's point of view 🙂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, thezing1 said:

I think you can expect Embiid to miss 10 games for load management.

You are very optimistic. 10 he miss certainly, the question is: 15 or more?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, apatas said:

You are very optimistic. 10 he miss certainly, the question is: 15 or more?

 

Truth. Load management is a thing, and missing games for bumps and bruises is also a thing. If you think he plays over 65-68 games, you're either saying he will be healthy all year, or Sixers will not manage his load as extensively as is typical with other top stars on teams expecting deep playoff runs in 2020.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

Kawhi said himself that he wouldn't be playing  in finals  without load management.  Remove Kawhi from Raptors roster in finals, and it is  a very close series with small edge (finals experience) to GSW.  So yes, the rest allowed Kawhi to play in the finals and  we won because Kawhi was playing.  I don't think it is an outlier.

We will see same situation with Embiid, with rest  during regular season to keep him fresh for playoffs. Maybe not 20 games, I am expecting  12-16 game range

 

Now we are just going around in circles over the finer details of something that is a projection (mine was quite loose). I combed through a game log quickly. I am not going to lay it all out there piece by piece in an Embiid thread. Kawhi got an unprecedented amount of rest in the regular season for someone that was healthy. Yes, he was coming off whatever you want to call the previous year's debacle. But the dude was healthy and he rested. Whatever he said after the fact is kind of pointless, right? Like everyone would love to take multiple weeks off during the regular season because that is the generation we are in. 

The point I am making about Kawhi being an outlier is by looking at the NBA from a macro point of view. They realize rest is the downfall of the league. Fans suffer because of rest. I don't need to hear an argument of rest leading to championship which rewards fans of the city that wins the title. Overall, fans lose and it is by a lot. Fantasy basketball has become far more frustrating and annoying and less enjoyable. Watching games has become worse. Going to games has become worse and in many cases much worse. It is essentially robbing fans when healthy players sit out. So the NBA is reducing B2Bs. I believe their goal is to eliminate them. Not sure that is possible, but it is on their radar and that is the important thing. This is why I think Kawhi is an outlier. If the NBA recreates the schedule to eliminate B2B and the players continue to rest 20+ games when healthy than the consumer suffers and the business declines and no one in charge wants that. I believe the NBA has already reduced B2B by 4-5 this season compared to last season. If you think rest for load management (what an adorable term for something so soft) is only going to get worse even though B2B are getting less and less? Then the question becomes what do you think the optimal number of games is for a player to play. Then the question becomes where you draw the line...because you can go through the majority of early round picks and say they would be better off in the playoffs if they played 75% of the regular season. You get pretty far down the rabbit hole pretty fast. 

With Embiid, I say you put in 10 games missed. Do I think he misses more....yea, highly likely. Do I think he plays more...no. So 10 games. 12 games. 15 games. Does it really make a difference? Honestly, do you really adjust your ranking based on a projection to miss 15 games instead of 12 for a guy like Embiid who has a statline that no one else provides at that point in the draft? You are either taking him and building off of his crazy numbers and assuming risk or you are factoring games played as a highly valued variable. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, rando said:

 

Truth. Load management is a thing, and missing games for bumps and bruises is also a thing. If you think he plays over 65-68 games, you're either saying he will be healthy all year, or Sixers will not manage his load as extensively as is typical with other top stars on teams expecting deep playoff runs in 2020.

Cool. Let's run with this for a minute since Embiid is essentially synonymous with rest, even though I would argue he is far too injured to be the poster child of load management. What other star sits out 14-17 games to rest for load management? Not saying bumps and bruises...purely rest purposes. It is extremely rare. Like Kawhi rare. Embiid played 64 games last year while sitting out the last 8 because of injury. He is hitting 70 games played if he is healthy last year. He started playing B2B last year. He is taking steps to survive the season by losing weight. The risk is high, but he is trending towards playing more games and not less assuming he doesn't have real injury. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Read somewhere, probably here in Rotoworld, that Embiid sat only 1 game last season due to pure load management. 

 

He was playing on almost all their b2b's last year. His minutes increased, too. 

 

 

Personally, the injury risk is more of a concern than load management. 

Still fairly high on him, though. Especially with the offseason weight loss (25 lbs)?

 

 

 

Outside the top 5 in 8cat, for me, no one offers a statline and elite upside like Embiid's. It's like KAT's but more explosive. 28 13.5 3.5 with 1.-something threes and 2 blocks on positive %s? With room to improve on his 4th year?

 

Yes, some injury risk. Yes, IF he stays healthy maybe he will be rested more. You can say that for most of the top 12, though. Including Giannis (rested during fantasy playoffs), AD, Harden, etc. 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, granthill338 said:

Read somewhere, probably here in Rotoworld, that Embiid sat only 1 game last season due to pure load management.

 

Im guessing this was after the entire city of Philly crapped their pants when he got hurt right before the playoffs?

I gotta believe his critically-timed late injury is going to drive more caution.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/19/2019 at 5:24 PM, thezing1 said:

Now we are just going around in circles over the finer details of something that is a projection (mine was quite loose). I combed through a game log quickly. I am not going to lay it all out there piece by piece in an Embiid thread. Kawhi got an unprecedented amount of rest in the regular season for someone that was healthy. Yes, he was coming off whatever you want to call the previous year's debacle. But the dude was healthy and he rested. Whatever he said after the fact is kind of pointless, right? Like everyone would love to take multiple weeks off during the regular season because that is the generation we are in. 

The point I am making about Kawhi being an outlier is by looking at the NBA from a macro point of view. They realize rest is the downfall of the league. Fans suffer because of rest. I don't need to hear an argument of rest leading to championship which rewards fans of the city that wins the title. Overall, fans lose and it is by a lot. Fantasy basketball has become far more frustrating and annoying and less enjoyable. Watching games has become worse. Going to games has become worse and in many cases much worse. It is essentially robbing fans when healthy players sit out. So the NBA is reducing B2Bs. I believe their goal is to eliminate them. Not sure that is possible, but it is on their radar and that is the important thing. This is why I think Kawhi is an outlier. If the NBA recreates the schedule to eliminate B2B and the players continue to rest 20+ games when healthy than the consumer suffers and the business declines and no one in charge wants that. I believe the NBA has already reduced B2B by 4-5 this season compared to last season. If you think rest for load management (what an adorable term for something so soft) is only going to get worse even though B2B are getting less and less? Then the question becomes what do you think the optimal number of games is for a player to play. Then the question becomes where you draw the line...because you can go through the majority of early round picks and say they would be better off in the playoffs if they played 75% of the regular season. You get pretty far down the rabbit hole pretty fast. 

With Embiid, I say you put in 10 games missed. Do I think he misses more....yea, highly likely. Do I think he plays more...no. So 10 games. 12 games. 15 games. Does it really make a difference? Honestly, do you really adjust your ranking based on a projection to miss 15 games instead of 12 for a guy like Embiid who has a statline that no one else provides at that point in the draft? You are either taking him and building off of his crazy numbers and assuming risk or you are factoring games played as a highly valued variable. 

I think you don't understand what sports is. It is all about winning. You can't think about fans because there is only three goals of the season: 1) Winning, 2) Winning, 3) Winning.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, apatas said:

I think you don't understand what sports is. It is all about winning. You can't think about fans because there is only three goals of the season: 1) Winning, 2) Winning, 3) Winning.

I completely disagree with your perspective. From an ownership standpoint, it is a business first to the great majority. Even an owner like Mark Cuban is still owning a business with the Mavs. From a player's standpoint, the league is become more about entertainment until the playoffs. You are too idealistic in your opinion that sports is only about winning. I wish that were the case, but it just isn't the reality of it. Fans are the lifeline of sports because without them there is no business. Fans get fed the idea that sports is about winning while they have allowed these owners to grow their businesses hundreds of millions of dollars. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I completely disagree with your perspective. From an ownership standpoint, it is a business first to the great majority. From a player's standpoint, the league is become more about entertainment until the playoffs. You are too idealistic in your opinion that sports is only about winning. I wish that were the case, but it just isn't the reality of it. 

OK. I was only a little bit mad that you bring an example that management load is also harmful for fantasy game. I can partially agree that fans are important for earning money which NBA makes but who cares about fantasy game? I also participate in some leagues but I have never ever been angry to the coaches who have rested my team player. My job is to play fantasy which is entertainment coaches job is to do what is best for his team. Greg Popovich is my idol and he started to rest best players. He is coach, he decides and I am only a small fantasy manager - that is not my business at all what coach is doing. Therefore I like if coaches play smart and I don't care how it impacts for my fantasy team. Nowadays sports is very hard and 82 games during less than 6 months is killing. I totally support load management. I even think that to withstand regular season plus playoff requires from star players to use performance enhancing drugs and that is really bad. You just can't survive that kind of busy season without any prohibited substances. This is not 1970 when basketball was slow. Then it was possible to play whole season without any medical help, now it is impossible.Just in case I add that I have worked almost 30 years as a sports journalist and I know quite well high level sports problems.

Edited by apatas
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, apatas said:

I think you don't understand what sports is. It is all about winning. You can't think about fans because there is only three goals of the season: 1) Winning, 2) Winning, 3) Winning.

Exactly.  Would Philly fans rather watch healthy Embiid against Raptors in playoffs (and quite possibly advancing) or in a meaningless February game?  

Winners earn more money in any sport, NBA is not different

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Embiid broke down in 2nd half of the season and was hurt in the playoffs. He is a  great center, but it is hard to draft someone in round 1 when you know at best you will be lucky to get 65 games out of him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/21/2019 at 12:16 AM, Gile Pile said:

Exactly.  Would Philly fans rather watch healthy Embiid against Raptors in playoffs (and quite possibly advancing) or in a meaningless February game?  

Winners earn more money in any sport, NBA is not different


Not sure winning is really that important in the NBA... unfortunately...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2019/02/06/forbes-releases-21st-annual-nba-team-valuations/#4df2137311a7

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But all discussion started from number of games. That is really important. If I would know in advance that Embiid plays 70+ matches, then he is TOP 8 pick. If not... then I don't know.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Embiid went 6th in a $100 Yahoo PRO league draft last night (12-Team H2H 9-CAT). Those numbers look so good when building a team.

Edited by apacheblues

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...