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Mikhov

Otto Porter Jr Season Outlook 2019-20

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No doubt that this man has finally been unleashed in CHI. The only concern is can he stay healthy?

Even as the projected 3rd option in CHI, OPJ has shown that he is capable of averaging 18 ppg with stellar efficiency (Fg/Ft/To), with 2+ threes, 6-7 boards, 2 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.6 bpg.

Grabbed him with the 46th pick and am just crossing my fingers that he can fulfill a redemption campaign.

Edited by Mikhov

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Much better for roto, in h2h will probably be load-managed or shut down for fantasy playoffs.

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Love him for the stocks, threes, and very high floor. He is one of few good defenders on that Chicago team so he will see a ton of floor time.

He'll lead the team (and set a personal high) in MPG, and I think he's accordingly set up for career highs pretty much across the board.

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Aside from half a season of being dicked around by Washington he’s been 27,22,20 the last three years. He’s being unleashed by Chicago so he’s no longer a low usage guy: 17/6/3 with 2.5 threes, 1.5 steals, .5 blocks.  One of the top 5 most efficient players if you count all three efficiency cats.  Imo the biggest problem isn’t getting shut down, low usage young guys typically don’t get shut down, but it’s his 3/3/3 schedule in many leagues.  In H2H his maximum games played during the fantasy playoffs is 9, but if he’s hurt at all, even in a minor way, you’re looking at 7-8.  Ofc in roto he’s an easy third round pick.

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I like OPJ. Excited to see where he finishes this season -- doesn't hurt you in any categories, but sometimes that's also due to the fact because he's not playing. Roto gold.

Edited by MysticPeak

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9 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Aside from half a season of being dicked around by Washington he’s been 27,22,20 the last three years. He’s being unleashed by Chicago so he’s no longer a low usage guy: 17/6/3 with 2.5 threes, 1.5 steals, .5 blocks.  One of the top 5 most efficient players if you count all three efficiency cats.  Imo the biggest problem isn’t getting shut down, low usage young guys typically don’t get shut down, but it’s his 3/3/3 schedule in many leagues.  

Unfortunately it wasn't just Washington screwing him over.  Chicago also shut him down final 11 games last season and a decent chance to happen again when they inevitably start tanking.  Not a great gamble in h2h.  Roto especially with games-played limits is obviously a different story.

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56 minutes ago, RealityBasketball said:

how much have you guys seen him go for in auctions (roto)?


From what I could observe - usually around 30-35$ in 200$ setup.

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5 hours ago, slmroz said:


From what I could observe - usually around 30-35$ in 200$ setup.

 

This is a guy that I see having a big potential swing in what people will pay. 

35$ = people expecting a lock for top-24 value. Im not sure Porter is showing up on peoples radar in that area. Not that I dont believe he can, but it doesnt seem to be the general sentiment.

ill thinking it'll be more like 23$ -> 32$.

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I also think he will cost $25ish and at that price it’s a steal in 9 cat roto.  I don’t think he will be top 25, but will be around 30th.  I don’t like his H2H schedule so it’s hard to pick him there but in 9 cat roto I would happily pay up to $30.  

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people sleeping on this guy. In a recent draft he fell down to late round 5, I gonna pick him next but just got swiped. a round 5 guy who can return top 30 value

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On 9/20/2019 at 7:29 PM, StifleTower2 said:

I also think he will cost $25ish and at that price it’s a steal in 9 cat roto.  I don’t think he will be top 25, but will be around 30th.  I don’t like his H2H schedule so it’s hard to pick him there but in 9 cat roto I would happily pay up to $30.  


If I'm able to get him at this price in roto - I'll go for it immediately. Unfortunately I wasn't lucky enough so far.

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5 hours ago, slmroz said:


If I'm able to get him at this price in roto - I'll go for it immediately. Unfortunately I wasn't lucky enough so far.

I haven’t done my auction money leagues yet but he went for $27 in a mock full of humans I did recently so I think it’s possible.  

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Between otto and the Lord,which one do you all think will be better?

 

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4 minutes ago, kane said:

Between otto and the Lord,which one do you all think will be better?

 

Covington

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2 minutes ago, kane said:

Between otto and the Lord,which one do you all think will be better?

 

Otto.  His finishes the last three years (throwing out the Washington nonsense last year) have been 27, 20, 22.  Two years prior he's also played 77 and 80 games, is young, and has no significant injury history.  He's a lock for top 30 imo.

 

Covington finished 16th last year but on only 37 games, not big enough sample size.  The two years prior he played 80 and 67 games, which is solid but he's a little less durable than Otto.  His finishes those two years were 36 and 37.  This suggest that he's a top 40 guy and last year was an outlier due to small sample size.

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50 minutes ago, kane said:

Between otto and the Lord,which one do you all think will be better?

 

 

Covington for me. Only a handful of players have the potential to get you over 3 stocks and he’s done it 2 out of the last 4 years. I think his situation on Timberwolves should allow that to continue. 

Edited by Pirate
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Porter ahead of Covington quite clearly. I play in Estonian first league: last season Otto was drafted at 30th pick, Covington 69th (!). Fantasy manager who drafted Covington finished at last place among 20 teams.

Edited by apatas
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2 hours ago, apatas said:

Porter ahead of Covington quite clearly. I play in Estonian first league: last season Otto was drafted at 30th pick, Covington 69th (!). Fantasy manager who drafted Covington finished at last place among 20 teams.

 

Anecdotal.  Obviously the guy who plays more games will help you more.  Some dude finishing last in a 20 team league only speaks their ineptitude.  Taking RoCo at 69th is not a bad move by any means.  

I'd value RoCo over Porter by a good margin if punting AST or FG% in H2H.  Overall he still has chance to outperform Otto with ++ production in 3 categories (anchor in steals).  Otto is indeed the more well-rounded player and the guy I'd prefer to own in ROTO where roster build emphasizes balance but I believe you are devaluing RoCo, clearly. 

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6 hours ago, 80version said:

 

Anecdotal.  Obviously the guy who plays more games will help you more.  Some dude finishing last in a 20 team league only speaks their ineptitude.  Taking RoCo at 69th is not a bad move by any means.  

I'd value RoCo over Porter by a good margin if punting AST or FG% in H2H.  Overall he still has chance to outperform Otto with ++ production in 3 categories (anchor in steals).  Otto is indeed the more well-rounded player and the guy I'd prefer to own in ROTO where roster build emphasizes balance but I believe you are devaluing RoCo, clearly. 

It sounds anecdotal, but RoCo has never found a love from our Estonian league. Before season 2017/18 he was taken as 65th pick and before 2016/17 as 113th pick. People don't like him at our league.

Edited by apatas

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25 minutes ago, apatas said:

It sounds anecdotal, but RoCo has never found a love from our Estonian league. Before season 2017/18 he was taken as 65th pick and before 2016/17 as 113th pick. People don't like him at our league.

 

None of which has a single thing to do with his value v Otto 

 

 

Good chat 

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Cant really compare OPJ and Cov, one is a st3cks popcorn machine who will likely kill your fg and the other is a ~50/40/80 anchor who can also hit 2+ threes, get 1.5+ steals. Both are valuable and fine top 50 selections. 

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39 minutes ago, Quazza said:

 

None of which has a single thing to do with his value v Otto 

 

 

Good chat 

Yes. I just say Otto looks more reliable. For me also, not only for the league where I participate.

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On 9/20/2019 at 7:13 AM, RealityBasketball said:

how much have you guys seen him go for in auctions (roto)?

 

Ive done a ton of mocks and see him go between 22-29 so far, which is about the same price for Siakam. Id rather have Siakam.

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22 hours ago, kane said:

 

On 9/20/2019 at 7:13 AM, RealityBasketball said:

how much have you guys seen him go for in auctions (roto)?

 

Otto went for $27 in a recent mock I did, which included all humans from my other leagues. I've done a few early snake (medium buyin) drafts and he went in the fourth round every time, twice by me.  Fourth round corresponds to about $25-30.  BTW the lowest Siakam has gone is $30 (by me).  That was an outlier as he went in the $30s in the others.

Edited by StifleTower2

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