colepenhagen

Deandre Ayton 2019-2020 Outlook

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any chance he gets pf eligibility?

20/10 with good % and solid stocks. seems lke a great pairing late 2nd with AD or KAT (having 2 center only players isn't ideal but that wouldn't make me pass on KAT Ayton pairing)

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Don't think he gets PF eligibility. Unless I'm mistaking, he only plays center anyways. I'm thinking 20/11 maybe 12 with very solid %'s. Double double machine. Might be top 5 in the league DD machine, which is saying something when you have Drummond, Gobert, Westbrook, Capela, KAT, etc. etc. Probably a steal + block too. Not sure how much he shoots the 3 ball. Hopefully his defense has improved over the summer. He made significant strides over the course of the season last year. One of my favorite players this season, hoping to land him in my leagues. 

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Once Ayton can make 3s, I will sign up then.

Very shy with 3s/stls/blks, he just doesn't feel like a 2nd round pick.

I would pick J Collins ahead of Ayton. He seemed to have figured it out towards the end.

Edited by gooseball
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23 hours ago, gooseball said:

Once Ayton can make 3s, I will sign up then.

Very shy with 3s/stls/blks, he just doesn't feel like a 2nd round pick.

I would pick J Collins ahead of Ayton. He seemed to have figured it out towards the end.

Ayton is a two stock per game guy right now (1 steal + block), and so is Collins (1 3PM, + .5 block/steal). So they are equal in that regard. Ayton is a better scorer and rebounder. It amazes me how 16/10, as a rookie in an offense that ran no plays for him, gets no respect in real life or in fantasy. He's already one of the most polished bigs in the league offensively and he's a great rebounder as well. Both will have good %s and ~2 TOs. They are not far apart but I'd rather have the 2nd year guy who is in a real offense now with, especially, a real point guard. Lots and lots of room for Ayton to improve, especially on defense where we could see an uptick in steals and blocks. 

Edited by RedRaider27
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On 9/29/2019 at 7:30 AM, gooseball said:

Once Ayton can make 3s, I will sign up then.

Very shy with 3s/stls/blks, he just doesn't feel like a 2nd round pick.

I would pick J Collins ahead of Ayton. He seemed to have figured it out towards the end.

I was pretty much sure that I will pick Ayton clearly ahead of Collins but I looked to some fantasy websites projections where I counted that actually Ayton have only very small advantage if these projected numbers will be correct. Because two big men are only separated by stocks (Ayton better) and threes (Collins), all other numbers were quite equal. My conclusion is that I still prefer Ayton who can be drafted at the end of 2nd round and Collins is rather 3rd-rounder. But because in my only standard league draft I have 10th and 15th pick (next 34th) then probably for me this comparison is insignificant - anyway I can't pick both of them.

Edited by apatas
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On 9/29/2019 at 12:30 AM, gooseball said:

Once Ayton can make 3s, I will sign up then.

Very shy with 3s/stls/blks, he just doesn't feel like a 2nd round pick.

I would pick J Collins ahead of Ayton. He seemed to have figured it out towards the end.

You don't want Ayton shooting threes.  Last year he was 33rd on 16/10/2/1/1 shooting almost 59% from the field and 75% from the line, sub 2 TO.  He gets value from having one of the highest FG in the game without hurting your  FT.  I believe he can be 21/11/2/1+/1+ this year.  Suppose next year he were to go 3/4 from the line and 9 for 15 from the field if he didn't shoot threes.  If he began shooting three threes per game and shot 33% then that would mean going something like 9/18 or 50%.  Sure he would then score an extra point and get a three, but it would turn his FG from top 5 to merely standard for a big man.  That dip in FG alone would drop him from top 25, like I currently project, to top 35.     

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17 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

You don't want Ayton shooting threes.  Last year he was 33rd on 16/10/2/1/1 shooting almost 59% from the field and 75% from the line, sub 2 TO.  He gets value from having one of the highest FG in the game without hurting your  FT.  I believe he can be 21/11/2/1+/1+ this year.  Suppose next year he were to go 3/4 from the line and 9 for 15 from the field if he didn't shoot threes.  If he began shooting three threes per game and shot 33% then that would mean going something like 9/18 or 50%.  Sure he would then score an extra point and get a three, but it would turn his FG from top 5 to merely standard for a big man.  That dip in FG alone would drop him from top 25, like I currently project, to top 35.     

He will not be taking 3 3PA per game. That's crazy. Last year he shot 44/127 (34.6%) from long mid-range. That's only 1.5 long jumper per game. Next season he won't be shooting more than 1-1.5 3PA/G and it won't have any negative impact on his FG%. 

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3 minutes ago, borgore said:

He will not be taking 3 3PA per game. That's crazy. Last year he shot 44/127 (34.6%) from long mid-range. That's only 1.5 long jumper per game. Next season he won't be shooting more than 1-1.5 3PA/G and it won't have any negative impact on his FG%. 

They don't want him getting to far away from the basket either. He is so advanced down low, you're doing yourself a diservice when you have him take threes. If he shoots one or two 3s per game, it wouldn't really bother me too much. He has a nice jumper, I think he would knock them down at a decent clip. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, borgore said:

He will not be taking 3 3PA per game. That's crazy. Last year he shot 44/127 (34.6%) from long mid-range. That's only 1.5 long jumper per game. Next season he won't be shooting more than 1-1.5 3PA/G and it won't have any negative impact on his FG%. 

I never said that he will.  You’re strawmanning me instead of responding to the poster I quoted.  I said you don’t WANT him shooting 3 threes.  You don’t want him shooting 1.5 either.  BTW what you said is patently false even aside the straw man.  Even if he shoots 1.5 it will have SOME negative impact on his FG.  Unless you think he will shoot threes at over 58% a clip.  

Edited by StifleTower2
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18 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I never said that he will.  You’re strawmanning me instead of responding to the poster I quoted.  I said you don’t WANT him shooting 3 threes.  You don’t want him shooting 1.5 either.  BTW what you said is patently false even aside the straw man.  Even if he shoots 1.5 it will have SOME negative impact on his FG.  Unless you think he will shoot threes at over 58% a clip.  

Wrong.

You seem to think that instead of taking layups and dunks he will be shooting threes next year. As I said in my previous post, last year he shot 34% from long mid-range on 1.5 FGA per game. These are the shots that will be replaced almost entirely by threes next year. His shot distribution at the rim will be the same. 

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20 minutes ago, borgore said:

Wrong.

You seem to think that instead of taking layups and dunks he will be shooting threes next year. As I said in my previous post, last year he shot 34% from long mid-range on 1.5 FGA per game. These are the shots that will be replaced almost entirely by threes next year. His shot distribution at the rim will be the same. 

I understand your argument better now, thank you.  Unfortunately, you haven’t bothered to read my posts closely.  I am in a lot of large buy-in leagues filled primarily with Europeans and Asians who speak English as their second language.  Their English comprehension is better than yours.  You see when one begins a statement with the word “suppose” it means the following statement is a hypothetical for illustrative purposes.  I don’t think Ayton will be replacing dunks for threes because I don’t think he will be shooting threes at all.  I was responding to another poster who believes he will shoot threes.  Aside from the occasional opportunistic three when he is wide open, I don’t think he will shoot threes, and I don’t think you want him shooting threes. 

 

Now if you think he will be replacing long twos with threes then that might be decent for his value in real life and fantasy.  It’s a faulty assumption that he will shoot threes at the same rate he shoots mid range twos.  Maybe the difference won’t be significant.  He could shoot threes at a 25% clip and threes at a 34%, which isn’t a huge difference, and it could be a low volume.   But you said it will have NO impact.  Words have meaning.  It will have SOME impact if he shoots threes.  If you said it will have negligible impact I wouldn’t have replied.  

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Whatever.

 

Ayton will be shooting threes next season.

Monty: 

Quote

In our offense, there’s a number of opportunities in the trail spot where he can knock down the 3 or transfer the ball. He’s worked on it, and my philosophy is if you’ve worked on it, do it. If you have it in your game and you’ve spent the time and put the sweat equity in, do it in the game.

 

Ayton: 

Quote

I’m definitely shooting the 3 this year, man, come on. The NBA is changing dramatically. It’s getting faster and you’re gonna have to put up shots regardless, so you’re gonna have to be a player. The league is turning position-less, seven-footers like me are turning into guards, we’re jumping, switching, so yeah. You guys are gonna see a lot.

 

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Well, Drummond said the same thing.  It’s meaningless offseason talk.    But if he does shoot threes, you’re likely going to wish he didn’t.  

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He lost me at 7 footers turning into guards (especially ones with poor lateral speed)... 🤣 The best KD and Giannis could do was SF. 

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On 9/30/2019 at 10:58 PM, StifleTower2 said:

You don't want Ayton shooting threes.  Last year he was 33rd on 16/10/2/1/1 shooting almost 59% from the field and 75% from the line, sub 2 TO.  He gets value from having one of the highest FG in the game without hurting your  FT.  I believe he can be 21/11/2/1+/1+ this year.  Suppose next year he were to go 3/4 from the line and 9 for 15 from the field if he didn't shoot threes.  If he began shooting three threes per game and shot 33% then that would mean going something like 9/18 or 50%.  Sure he would then score an extra point and get a three, but it would turn his FG from top 5 to merely standard for a big man.  That dip in FG alone would drop him from top 25, like I currently project, to top 35.     


One thing thats not making sense is that youre saying if Ayton hit one three a game he would gain a point a game, taking your projection for him to 22,11,1,1 with 50 fg%, but it would drop him to top 35. This will almost certainly not drop him to top 35, but it will absolutely put him in the top 25.

For example, the closest person to him to put up those numbers : Alrdidge, who came in at 25 overall with alot less threes, steals, and rebounds. Yes, Aldridge had way better ft%, but the huge advantages in the other 3 cats will certainly make up for that. 

Heck the next closest person to those numbers was Vucevic at 11 overall. I think if Vucevic lost 1.8 assists a game that he would still be top 25. I actually just drafted Ayton so i would not mind seeing him hit one 3 a game since it would make my team pretty damn stacked (my teams fg% is def solid already).

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3 minutes ago, jay_00 said:


One thing thats not making sense is that youre saying if Ayton hit one three a game he would gain a point a game, taking your projection for him to 22,11,1,1 with 50 fg%, but it would drop him to top 35. This will almost certainly not drop him to top 35, but it will absolutely put him in the top 25.

For example, the closest person to him to put up those numbers : Alrdidge, who came in at 25 overall with alot less threes, steals, and rebounds. Yes, Aldridge had way better ft%, but the huge advantages in the other 3 cats will certainly make up for that. 

Heck the next closest person to those numbers was Vucevic at 11 overall. I think if Vucevic lost 1.8 assists a game that he would still be top 25. I actually just drafted Ayton so i would not mind seeing him hit one 3 a game since it would make my team pretty damn stacked (my teams fg% is def solid already).

Aldridge: 21/9/2.4 with 1.3 blocks, .5 steals 52/85/1.8

Ayton's upside if he shoots threes: 22/11/2 with 1 block, 1 steal, 1 three 50/75/2+ TO

 

That 10% difference in FT is huge.  Ayton and Aldridge had similar TO last year but presumably if Ayton's usage goes up then so will his TO.  In my hypothetical, it would also drop his FG% below Aldridge's.  Ayton's best cat was FG% last year.  Dropping it to a pedestrian number for a big is huge.  You're underrating the value of one third of a block, that's half of the median, which is half a round of value easily.  Last year Aldridge was 1.3, Ayton .9  People tend to eye ball these numbers but if you're using a standard deviation model these small differences absolutely can drop someone a round.     

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16 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Aldridge: 21/9/2.4 with 1.3 blocks, .5 steals 52/85/1.8

Ayton's upside if he shoots threes: 22/11/2 with 1 block, 1 steal, 1 three 50/75/2+ TO

 

That 10% difference in FT is huge.  Ayton and Aldridge had similar TO last year but presumably if Ayton's usage goes up then so will his TO.  In my hypothetical, it would also drop his FG% below Aldridge's.  Ayton's best cat was FG% last year.  Dropping it to a pedestrian number for a big is huge.  You're underrating the value of one third of a block, that's half of the median, which is half a round of value easily.  Last year Aldridge was 1.3, Ayton .9  People tend to eye ball these numbers but if you're using a standard deviation model these small differences absolutely can drop someone a round.     

you think aytons fg% gets dropped 10ish pts if he shoots some threes?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

you think aytons fg% gets dropped 10ish pts if he shoots some threes?

I already answered that.  Last year he was 33rd on 16/10/2/1/1 shooting almost 59% from the field and 75% from the line, sub 2 TO.  He gets value from having one of the highest FG in the game without hurting your  FT.  Suppose next year he were to go 3/4 from the line and 8 for 15 from the field if he didn't shoot threes.  If he began shooting three threes per game and shot 33% then that would mean going something like 9/18 or 50%.

Edited by StifleTower2

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35 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Aldridge: 21/9/2.4 with 1.3 blocks, .5 steals 52/85/1.8

Ayton's upside if he shoots threes: 22/11/2 with 1 block, 1 steal, 1 three 50/75/2+ TO

 

That 10% difference in FT is huge.  Ayton and Aldridge had similar TO last year but presumably if Ayton's usage goes up then so will his TO.  In my hypothetical, it would also drop his FG% below Aldridge's.  Ayton's best cat was FG% last year.  Dropping it to a pedestrian number for a big is huge.  You're underrating the value of one third of a block, that's half of the median, which is half a round of value easily.  Last year Aldridge was 1.3, Ayton .9  People tend to eye ball these numbers but if you're using a standard deviation model these small differences absolutely can drop someone a round.     


You specifically wrote 1+ for both his steals AND blocks, so that obviously means you expect him to do slightly better than that, which would put him near Aldridges numbers. Heck, even if you didnt assume that and just give him 1 block a game, Ayton still DOUBLES his steals, gets 2 more rebs, and the advantage of hitting 1 three a game far outweighs a .3 block differential and the ft advantage. Easiest way to understand that is to just look at the values in BBM for guys that get those numbers already. The difference in value for the other three cats is over 2.5 compared to the 2.0 value advantage Aldridges ft% and slight block differential has. Its a no brainer, hitting those numbers will keep him in the top 25.

Heck its even easier to use Vucevic as an example. If Vucevic got 1 less rebound and 1.8 less assists, do you really believe he drops from 11 to 35 overall? Theres no possible way.

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His defense looks legit.. he looks to have really improved there. Complete concrete block down there. 

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, jay_00 said:


You specifically wrote 1+ for both his steals AND blocks, so that obviously means you expect him to do slightly better than that, which would put him near Aldridges numbers. Heck, even if you didnt assume that and just give him 1 block a game, Ayton still DOUBLES his steals, gets 2 more rebs, and the advantage of hitting 1 three a game far outweighs a .3 block differential and the ft advantage. Easiest way to understand that is to just look at the values in BBM for guys that get those numbers already. The difference in value for the other three cats is over 2.5 compared to the 2.0 value advantage Aldridges ft% and slight block differential has. Its a no brainer, hitting those numbers will keep him in the top 25.

Heck its even easier to use Vucevic as an example. If Vucevic got 1 less rebound and 1.8 less assists, do you really believe he drops from 11 to 35 overall? Theres no possible way.

The advantage of 1 three absolutely does NOT outweigh a .3 block advantage and a 10 point FT% advantage.  One three is about 2/3 of the median in that category and .4 blocks is also 2/3 of the median in that category.  So those two balance out.  Doubling steals isn't really the way to see it.  For example, if someone got .1 steals and someone else got .2 steals then that would be double but it wouldn't be a big distinction.  .5 steals is about 40% of the median in that cat.

 

Whereas a 52/85/1.8 line is a HUGE advantage over a 50/75/2+ line.  Across the three efficiency cats Aldridge was one of the best players in the league and efficiency were his best cats.  His z score in FT% was .94 compared to Ayton's -.29.  That's a difference of 1.23.  To help you understand, 15 points is worth 1.0.  So that MASSIVE advantage in FT% is worth about 20 points. Not to mention, as I said if Ayton shoots threes it could drop his FG% below Aldridge's, and his TO will be higher as well.  I don't think you're understanding how the majority of Aldridge's value comes from efficiency.  If you count all three efficiency cats, including TO, then Aldridge was THE most efficient player last year.  So to not include that in your analysis is a huge error.  It's tantamount to saying Westbrook is better than Kemba and just repeating his counting stats over and over again.

 

Bringing up Vuc actually helps my case.  

 

11: Vuc: 21/12/3.8 1.1/1.1/1 52/79/2

25: Aldridge: 21/9/2.4 with 1.3 blocks, .5 steals 52/85/1.8

33: Ayton's upside if he shoots threes: 22/11/2 with 1 block, 1 steal, 1 three 50/75/2+ TO

 

Do you think those seemingly small differences between Vuc and Aldridge would justify a 14 rank difference?  Neither would I.  But the math supports it obviously.  I don't think you're getting how punitive it is to drop from 59% to 50% in FG% or a 10% FT difference in FT%.

Edited by StifleTower2

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Anyway, the point of the original post was to illustrate how damaging it would be shoot threes, and go from 59% to 50%.  When I said it would drop him to 35 that might have been an exaggeration.  But I don't think he will shoot many threes and I don't think shooting threes would increase his value.  That was the original point.  

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33 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

The advantage of 1 three absolutely does NOT outweigh a .3 block advantage and a 10 point FT% advantage.  One three is about 2/3 of the median in that category and .4 blocks is also 2/3 of the median in that category.  So those two balance out.  Doubling steals isn't really the way to see it.  For example, if someone got .1 steals and someone else got .2 steals then that would be double but it wouldn't be a big distinction.  .5 steals is about 40% of the median in that cat.

 

Whereas a 52/85/1.8 line is a HUGE advantage over a 50/75/2+ line.  Across the three efficiency cats Aldridge was one of the best players in the league and efficiency were his best cats.  His z score in FT% was .94 compared to Ayton's -.29.  That's a difference of 1.23.  To help you understand, 15 points is worth 1.0.  So that MASSIVE advantage in FT% is worth about 20 points. Not to mention, as I said if Ayton shoots threes it could drop his FG% below Aldridge's, and his TO will be higher as well.  I don't think you're understanding how the majority of Aldridge's value comes from efficiency.  If you count all three efficiency cats, including TO, then Aldridge was THE most efficient player last year.  So to not include that in your analysis is a huge error.  It's tantamount to saying Westbrook is better than Kemba and just repeating his counting stats over and over again.

 

Bringing up Vuc actually helps my case.  

 

11: Vuc: 21/12/3.8 1.1/1.1/1 52/79/2

25: Aldridge: 21/9/2.4 with 1.3 blocks, .5 steals 52/85/1.8

33: Ayton's upside if he shoots threes: 22/11/2 with 1 block, 1 steal, 1 three 50/75/2+ TO

 

Do you think those seemingly small differences between Vuc and Aldridge would justify a 14 rank difference?  Neither would I.  But the math supports it obviously.  I don't think you're getting how punitive it is to drop from 59% to 50% in FG% or a 10% FT difference in FT%.


You mentioned the Z score advantage in ft% of 1.23, but completely left out the 2 rebs advantage that youre predicting Ayton to have. The advantage Ayton has there would be .70. The difference in threes? Aldridge is -1.30, where if you take a player who hits 1 three a game, thats a Z score difference of .90. The z score difference in steals? That would be a whopping 1.16. So thats a total of 2.70 in those 3 cats alone. Your original projection already mentioned Ayton would get 1+ for blocks and steals, so one can assume that has to mean 1.1 in both cats at the least. So it would only be a .2 block advantage for LA, but a .6 steal advantage for Ayton.

So Aytons Z score difference is 2.90 in the 3 cats hes better at, plus the extra 1 point per game. The Z score difference from Aldridges fg%, ft%, and .2 blocks would be about 2.80. 

So no, the math clearly does not support your case, in fact it actually it does the opposite.

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1 hour ago, jay_00 said:


You mentioned the Z score advantage in ft% of 1.23, but completely left out the 2 rebs advantage that youre predicting Ayton to have. The advantage Ayton has there would be .70. The difference in threes? Aldridge is -1.30, where if you take a player who hits 1 three a game, thats a Z score difference of .90. The z score difference in steals? That would be a whopping 1.16. So thats a total of 2.70 in those 3 cats alone. Your original projection already mentioned Ayton would get 1+ for blocks and steals, so one can assume that has to mean 1.1 in both cats at the least. So it would only be a .2 block advantage for LA, but a .6 steal advantage for Ayton.

So Aytons Z score difference is 2.90 in the 3 cats hes better at, plus the extra 1 point per game. The Z score difference from Aldridges fg%, ft%, and .2 blocks would be about 2.80. 

So no, the math clearly does not support your case, in fact it actually it does the opposite.

Ok man. You win. I made up a totally hypothetical scenario involving a line to highlight why a player who probably isn’t shooting lot of threes (and hasn’t in the preseason) isn’t shooting a lot of threes.  The line I posted (which was his upside) has adjusted those numbers to show why shooting a few threes would harm him more than it would help him.  While I was correct in stating that he wouldn’t shoot a lot of threes, which I believed to be preseason talk the numbers I used to highlight this fact weren’t entirely consistent.  You obviously missed the entire point that the only reason why I even put up such a line was to show what shooting threes would do to his to FG.  But you really discovered something extraordinary which is that the totally hypothetical line I posted was slightly off.  This will have absolutely zero benefit whatsoever to you in any of your leagues or any other way other than you get this: congrats.  You win.  

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9 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

His defense looks legit.. he looks to have really improved there. Complete concrete block down there. 

 

 

 

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