brockpapersizer

PitcherList Early Top 100 SP Rankings

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Firstly. F Fantasy Football. 

 

Secondly, interesting list. I'm sure it will change throughout the offseason.  I dont think Nick Pollack is an amazing analyst by any means, but I do genuinely appreciate his dynamic 100 rankings. I feel like it's a very helpful visual.

 

https://www.pitcherlist.com/way-too-early-top-100-starting-pitcher-rankings-for-2020/

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Posted (edited)

Wow, this may be the first list I've seen that I don't hate. Couple of things I noticed.

Where I agree:

1. FINALLY Cole is getting the respect he deserves as the top SP off the board. Guy is borderline unhittable. 

2. Snell inside the top 10, I love it. 

3. Corbin before Kersh/Stras, love that too.

4. Ryu is WAY low, where I thought he should have dropped.

5. Civale breaks the top 80. Love it. Guy produced very well.

 

Where I disagree:

1. Tyler Glasnow at 21.. no.

2. Sonny Gray seems way too early at 27.

3. The Oakland boys Montas and Manaea seem really late for some reason. Montas was a stud before he got suspended. 

4. E-Rod at 56 - he may lose some run support next year.

5. Rich Hill - is he AARP eligible yet?

6. Max Fried even BEING on this list. Guy is a ratio-killer. I hope he gets stung by a bee in the anus.

 

 

Edited by MSkibisky

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Posted (edited)

@MSkibisky. I agree on Ryu being low.  Thats a pretty big bump down based on what he did this year.  Potentially getting him in redraft as a #3 sounds great.

 

I think Max Fried certainly deserves to be on the list, made some really positive steps this year. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-fried-has-raised-his-ceiling/

 

Also feel like Cole wasn't being disrespected last year really. Only did one actual redraft and he went 21 overall. He's ranked higher this year for sure and deservingly so, but it's a rather minor bump in the grand spectrum since he was the number 7 ADP guy last year.

 

Berrios also seems pretty low at 37

Edited by brockpapersizer

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Can already tell you I’m going to be staying clear from most of that third tier 

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1 minute ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Can already tell you I’m going to be staying clear from most of that third tier 

yea, agreed for the most part. Although Sevy could be a good buy low. Flaherty is an up-and-comer too. Tier 4 scares me even more tbh

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For me the trust level plummets between say the late 30s to late 40s.  Assuming I pass on the top pitchers like I usually do, I'll need to keep that drop off in mind and maybe spend an extra pick or two on a pitcher in the mid rounds when they are all going.  

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Posted (edited)

I don’t see Dustin May on this list. Where you all having him placed? 40-50 range?

 

Edit: Nevermind, I just saw him in the notes.

Edited by charger_ss24

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2 minutes ago, charger_ss24 said:

I don’t see Dustin May on this list. Where you all having him placed? 40-50 range?

Not that low. Maybe 70/80ish.

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I kinda like this list but I am curious about something. Buehler is in tier 2 but Flaherty is not. I think they should be ranked fairly close together, so what am I missing there? 

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Posted (edited)

Sale #8 with injury questions?

Flaherty has to be top 10 after 2nd half.  

Kluber way too high.  

Edited by B&F
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2 minutes ago, B&F said:

Sale #8 with injury questions?

Flaherty has to be top 10 after 2nd half.  

Kluber way too high.  

I love Flaherty but who in the top 10 would you take him over? He is fine where he is.

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Jack F is for sure in the top 10 over Sale,Castillo,and possibly Bieber. Not sure how hes not T2.

Sale is to high he should be T3. Ohtani at 17 i dont think im going to mess with him that high. I see a bunch of T3 guys with huge question marks. 

The guys i really like T3-Luis S,Giolito,Paddock(how the F is he not T3?) Ryu should also be t3 agree with other posters.

I like Glasnow but injuries scare me and no discount there. 

 

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With lists like this I think much of the debate centers around who belongs in what tier since reasonable minds can always disagree with individual rankings.

I personally don’t have much use for a top 100 list as I would never consciously draft a starter outside the top 40 unless I very specifically handpicked someone as a breakout candidate.  But it is still interesting to see the 1000 foot view of the SP landscape like this.

 

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4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I dont think Nick Pollack is an amazing analyst by any means, but I do genuinely appreciate his dynamic 100 rankings

 

https://www.pitcherlist.com/way-too-early-top-100-starting-pitcher-rankings-for-2020/

 

Can I ask why you phrased this statement this way? I’m not qualified to give an expert opinion on who the amazing analysts are, but I do want to say that I find Nick Pollack’s analysis pretty detailed and helpful. His insight has served me well in knowing pitchers the last few years

 

He breaks down each of their starts and actually evaluates how each of an SP’s pitches performed. It’s really helpful to know if an SP is a two-pitch pitcher or has a full arsenal. Also gives you an idea of whether a 10k performance is less impressive because it was mostly due to one pitch.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

 

Can I ask why you phrased this statement this way? I’m not qualified to give an expert opinion on who the amazing analysts are, but I do want to say that I find Nick Pollack’s analysis pretty detailed and helpful. His insight has served me well in knowing pitchers the last few years

 

He breaks down each of their starts and actually evaluates how each of an SP’s pitches performed. It’s really helpful to know if an SP is a two-pitch pitcher or has a full arsenal. Also gives you an idea of whether a 10k performance is less impressive because it was mostly due to one pitch.

 

Sure. I've listened to Nick for years and still do.He is hyper aware of everything a pitcher is doing, not doing, and analytics on every pitch. I don't know what it is, but he seems like a product of too much information that leads to bad results.  I distinctly remember listening to his podcast where he was interviewing everyone who he interviewed for his mock draft staff league or whatever. I remember him essentially mocking a guys staff because he waited on pitching and ended up with Strasburg, and basically said Strasburg was def not someone you want as a 1, maybe not even a 2, and he listed a ton of reasons why. Strasburg Straburged and the rest is history. He wrote off Caleb Smith before the start of last season and then when he put him as a top 15 pitcher, Caleb started to suck.  I think he's too reactionary on some things. He blew up Castillo pre 2018 and kind of whimped out this year.  I think perhaps making a constant list takes him away from the bigger pictures sometimes, even though I do genuinely find the list very helpful.  

 

When he's super high on a pitcher vs consensus I take notice as well as when he thinks someone is terrible compared to consensus. The fact that he takes a strong stand on every single guy leads to a significant amount of misevaluation/overvaluation.

I like that he recaps every single SP performance, because often times Im playing in deep leagues and I need someone to have a take on a Joe Ross or a Lucas Sims because they have value in my leagues if they pitch well.  The fact that I can always count on Nick to say SOMETHING about last night's pitching performance is often helpful, but sometimes I'll read his take and then 2 starts he was completely wrong about said guy and flip flops.

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Sure. I've listened to Nick for years and still do.

 

 

Great explanation. Thanks. I agree that he gives a lot of information and sometimes that can lead to overanalysis

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Sale was #1 on my do not draft list this year. I think the fantasy baseball community did not properly bake his injury concerns into his ADP. If he goes in the top 10 of starting pitchers again next year after even more injury concerns, it looks like I won’t have to look very far for 2020’s #1. 

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My observations and thoughts, some which are similar to others;

1) older guys with a few years of massive injuries, and already declining skills are not a good mix.  I am staying the hell away from Kluber (16) and sale at 8.  Even if they DO pitch 200 innings which is extremely doubtful, they likely won’t be 2017 type innings.

2) flaherty is so much better than everyone in t3.

3) Greinke gets no respect.  If age is a thing, verlander and sherzer should have that baked in.  I will almost certainly not have either verlander or sherzer.

4) t4 seems to me to made up of a bunch of guys that are over rated that are under rated (Berrios, ryu, Syndergaard, an maybe Paxton.) if I can get one of these 4 while the others in this tier are going I’d be thrilled.

5) I love to take a late shot on guys that were awesome and then derailed a bit by injury.  Not talking about Severinos, but folty and Cueto at 71.  These guys could be awesome, or just as likely waiver fodder by mid May, but the cost to find out will be  a mediocre innings eater type.

6) glasnow is gonna get so much hype and helium in spring training that owning him in late drafts will cost so much that you’ll really have to reach.  

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12 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

6. Max Fried even BEING on this list. Guy is a ratio-killer. I hope he gets stung by a bee in the anus.

 

Note to self: Don't piss off MSkibisky. 

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3 hours ago, meh2 said:

Sale was #1 on my do not draft list this year. I think the fantasy baseball community did not properly bake his injury concerns into his ADP. If he goes in the top 10 of starting pitchers again next year after even more injury concerns, it looks like I won’t have to look very far for 2020’s #1. 

 

Sale's ranking is ridiculous.  He was hurt most of the year and ineffective many times. He even got bombed by the Rookieless Blue Jays one game.

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My Observations

4.) I don't think I'd grab Scherzer this high. I'd be worried he might go all Chris Sale.  He's 35 and there's a lot of mileage on that arm.  He already spent time on the DL this year.  

9) Luis  Castillo seems to high on the list.  The K's are nice but his walk rate is scary.  Pitchers like this, there's a fine line between being dominant and getting hammered and he could do a Chris Archer impersonation real fast.  Plus that Reds team kind of sucks and I don't know how for real Aquino is yet.  Could be hard to duplicate the wins.

10) Hard to know where to put Blake Snell.  His FIP was overall still really good but he does walk a lot of players and there's inury concerns. 

14) Flaherty was utterly dominant in the second half and I tend to reach more for NL pitchers, especially those on good teams.  Would take him ahead of a lot of guys near him.

19) No idea why Greinke is this low.  I get that he's old but if that's the case, you would have to re-evaluate the ranking of older studs way ahead of him.

36) Ryu, the NL ERA champion should never fall this low.  Plus he plays on a great team.  

45) Mccullers didn't even pitch this year, seems way off.

81) Much as I love to rag on Marcus Stroman, there's no way he's #81.  His K rate improved with the Mets. The Hr's allowed seemed like a fluke. The Mets offense is pretty solid with Mcneil and Alonso breaking out.  He could nab 15-20 wins and a sub 3.30 ERA even if it won't be with Elite Strikeouts.

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4 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

My Observations

4.) I don't think I'd grab Scherzer this high. I'd be worried he might go all Chris Sale.  He's 35 and there's a lot of mileage on that arm.  He already spent time on the DL this year.  

9) Luis  Castillo seems to high on the list.  The K's are nice but his walk rate is scary.  Pitchers like this, there's a fine line between being dominant and getting hammered and he could do a Chris Archer impersonation real fast.  Plus that Reds team kind of sucks and I don't know how for real Aquino is yet.  Could be hard to duplicate the wins.

10) Hard to know where to put Blake Snell.  His FIP was overall still really good but he does walk a lot of players and there's inury concerns. 

14) Flaherty was utterly dominant in the second half and I tend to reach more for NL pitchers, especially those on good teams.  Would take him ahead of a lot of guys near him.

19) No idea why Greinke is this low.  I get that he's old but if that's the case, you would have to re-evaluate the ranking of older studs way ahead of him.

36) Ryu, the NL ERA champion should never fall this low.  Plus he plays on a great team.  

45) Mccullers didn't even pitch this year, seems way off.

81) Much as I love to rag on Marcus Stroman, there's no way he's #81.  His K rate improved with the Mets. The Hr's allowed seemed like a fluke. The Mets offense is pretty solid with Mcneil and Alonso breaking out.  He could nab 15-20 wins and a sub 3.30 ERA even if it won't be with Elite Strikeouts.

 

Unless the Mets severely improve their defense, Stroman will not get close to a sub 3.30 ERA. He had a .337 BABIP with the Mets compared to .293 with the Jays and that has nothing to do with fluky HRs. His xFIP with the Mets was still 3.84. With the splits he had with the Mets (27,3 LD%/48,3 GB%) you need good defense. 

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20 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

2. Sonny Gray seems way too early at 27.

This is about the only one I disagree with on your list.  While he did start off the season rocky, he was great for a lot of the season.  I don't expect him to duplicate what he did over most of the season, but it's not like he wasn't really good in the past before he became a Yankee.  I think he deserves to be considered at least a borderline fantasy ace.

19 hours ago, charger_ss24 said:

I don’t see Dustin May on this list. Where you all having him placed? 40-50 range?

 

Edit: Nevermind, I just saw him in the notes.

Still going to comment on this...

I still disagree with Nick's notes there.  I actually even posted a comment on their page about May.  Several of the Dodgers he listed there have basically no chance of getting a rotation spot over their #1 pitching prospect.  I don't think they'd waste him in the bullpen and just spot start him like they've done with several of their guys.  I'd be very surprised if May wasn't given every opportunity to win a rotation spot next spring.

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In RE: Sonny Gray.  You'd think the driveline guy signing with the Reds is a decent value boost for all Reds pitchers. Not sure how tangible it is, but if I see a Reds pitcher doing something differently with success, I might be buying. 

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