Lifschitz

Your Personal Draft Strategy

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Posted (edited)

I was interested to see some of your takes on how you head into the draft with what you're looking to accomplish, what types of players/builds you like and why.

I had quite a bit of positive feedback on Reddit fantasy bball section when I discussed what I'm looking to do this year in the draft, so I thought I'd share some of that here and perhaps some can take something away from it:

 

Quote

I've been experimenting a lot in my mocks building around Towns as my 1st pick (I'm picking 1st in my draft). I'm not going to punt. I like to think outside the box about drafts and I try to do different things which are not-conventional. For example I think it's too commonly thought that you need to punt in order to win, and granted when I last won my money league a few years back in a very competitive league it was when I punted FG%. However, I think it's a bit gimmicky to always need to do this, as I pride myself on knowing my talent and gem picks (plus so much depends on your pickups throughout the year). The reason why I dislike punting around Towns is because he's the perfect fantasy Center, I should be able to win with a balance build, and it's something I'm looking to do this year (be strong in some areas and average in others but those average areas will still be greater than most teams). 

This is a tricky balance because it dwindles down the player pool quite a bit, you end up looking for guys who fit the balance build. 

stat sets go together, for example:

FG, REB, BLK = bigs

AST, STL, 3s, FT = guards

I like to get players who do things that contribute to stat sets not within their group, but they can't drag me down in their positional stat set. So I won’t draft someone like Markannen or Collins because they don’t block well (but conversely I would love someone like Siakam or JJJ just not at their current ADP), but I will draft a Jrue holiday or a Josh Richardson because they give me out of position blocks. I like to compound my stats with the out of position guys; so I like bigs who assist, or guards who can rebound and block, but they also need to be decent/good at their own stat set. When you grab those early PFs it makes it very hard to catch up as we’ve alluded, so you’re forced into a punt situation, and sometimes this might even happen on a whim as the draft plays out.

Now you might say hey, Collins and Markkanen hit some threes though and do other things well, sure, but when you're picking them that early, there is no big man who's going to turn around a 44% - 45% Markkanen or Porzingis. You need them to be good within the bigs stat set first (FG, REB, BLK) and if they can add additional stuff (assists, etc.) then it's amazing. So a perfect example is someone like Horford, which is why he fits a lot of my builds. I want them to have palatable FT%. It's ok to have some guards who have lower FG% like Richardson for example because he gives you so much more in other areas, and your big men being efficient will balance him out. You can't however have a Rozier in this build, because he's going to destroy you in one area, those are drafting no-no's for me.

So in a draft I love the idea of having these types of bigs on my roster:

Towns, Horford, Vuc, Bryant, Bam, WCJ, Valanciunas because they are reliable across the board but they also have room to help me in non standard big man categories (threes, assists, steals, etc.)  aside from Val who's my lowest priority but his efficiency is excellent. 

Personally the reason why I think the most viable punt is FG is because it opens up the draft so much, I can take guys like Porzingis or Kevin love, I can pair them with a Myles Turner and a Harden, I never have to worry about the bigs and guards I combine, and it also means that I’m chasing high usage players who have the ball a lot like Westbrook. But I'm not going to do that this year.

I'll tell you that the two targets I've really wanted is Trae + Vuc. I want Vuc because he's basically a Towns-lite. He does exactly the same things statistically across the board just slightly less. However, through 20+ mocks, I've never had Trae + Vuc drop to me. Vuc dropped once out of 20 times and that's when people were messing around in that one mock.

My reasoning is I want to couple Trae's high assists as a catalyst, and then I can cover his percentages with my two bigs, while Vuc gives me the out of position assists like Towns does, which makes it much easier for me with a middling guard in the mid rounds (like CJ or Bledsoe or SGA or Brogdon etc.).

Here's what I've been experimenting with in the first few rounds:

KAT / CP3 / Turner

KAT / Mitchell / Fox

KAT / Booker / Mitchell (this one I've been working with thoroughly to see what I can do as I really like the sheer fire power in the back court and can supplement additional categories)

KAT / Booker / Fox

KAT / Booker / Doncic

KAT / Doncic / Mitchell

I'll tell you that at round 4/5 I've been looking at getting either two sleeper bigs back to back or getting a sleeper big plus another guard (I feel Bledsoe, CJ, Lowry are underrated at this point, they still have very nice all around lines, and just a few years back they were widely considered 2nd - 3rd round picks, so they're coming in at some what of a bargain value in those mid rounds, not necessarily that they will outplay their ADP but at least you know what you're getting - and it's quite good).

I like to leave my SFs and SF/PF elig players for the 6th - 7th, there's a lot of 1/1/1 guys in this range that I like, and I feel they are glue guys. I don't like the idea of drafting PF in the 2nd or 3rd because they are glue guys and they just don't help to OWN a category, they are there to help boost up guys who are already monsters in particular categories. If I draft a PF (say like Siakam or JJJ in the 3rd round, I'm basically guaranteeing that I have to punt something because I won't be able to catch up in the scarce categories, so it's always a monster big or a great PG in the first few rounds).

CP3 would really fit well into my builds because his one year of bad FG could be a complete aberration. On one hand it’s like ok you guys are all hyping trae but if cp3 ups his field goal to his normal career levels and get traded to Miami he’s a total steal. You’d get one of the best all around PGs at the turn, that is amazing value. Problem is he comes with a lot of caveats. If they can’t move his contract he’s sitting on the Thunder bench come March, that is very worrisome to me and no one will take him off my hands by February knowing that.

When I experimented with a guard and Turner, I basically tanked assists the rest of the draft without even wanting to. When I didn’t draft Turner I still found ways to be top 4 in blocks while maintaining high assists. Assists are by far the hardest category to make up past the first few rounds. This is why I find it so vital to pair two guards in rounds 2 and 3 if you're going with a big man who's not Jokic.

The reason why I'm experimenting with Doncic is because he's turning 20 and is already so damn good at passing, you could essentially get a 20 year old averaging a near triple double with improved percentages - which you know you won't get from Westbrook. So it's like a better 3 point shooting version of WB and fewer TO and fewer steals. If I can wrap him with Booker I basically get a ton of points, threes, assists,, and out of position rebounds from the PG spot (Doncic is an incredible rebounder). If Doncic ups his FG and FT, then I'm even better, but KAT and Booker already cover for him. This sets me up for later rounds where I can take some lesser PGs without having to worry as much about them standing out in the assists category. Nevertheless, he's a double edged sword since I'm absolutely banking on a percentage increase and I may want to go with something safer and more reliable in the first three rounds, since more gambles will be coming later on.

As you can see right now my concern is assists coming into the turn, because almost all of the good safe top PG options are gone by the time the pick comes back, you’ll have to put two guards together out of necessity and get some more out of position assists later on to supplement. 

The league is quite deep in centers this year, and shooting guards/SFs are in abundance in the last 4 rounds. 

This is my thought process right now, feel free to take from it what you will, but currently I'm just working on different balance builds where I'm excessively strong in some areas and have good average balance in others.

 

 

Edited by Lifschitz
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All very sound ideas, you should be well on your way and I like KAT at 1. i also like doncic's upside but a balanced build is the last place to put him. The one thing about being on the wheel pick is you can worry less about exact ranks and just take pairs of guys that fit your needs. Lowry or bledsoe is commonly available in round 4. So you could likely pick the best big man and PG in each of your next 2 pairs after kat. Then fill out wing positions and keep taking best player available to fit your gaps. There are nice pockets of point guards and bigs later in the draft. 

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Posted (edited)

I'm in a keeper, keep 2, and I'm not sure how many we will keep this season. If it's just two I'm going for jrue and Draymond, if it's keep 5 then I'm going for jjj early.

 

Considering it's roto I should probably go cp3 in the 3rd. He'll be there. Cp3 and Green would be good.

Edited by ssolitare

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26 minutes ago, BMart519 said:

All very sound ideas, you should be well on your way and I like KAT at 1. i also like doncic's upside but a balanced build is the last place to put him. The one thing about being on the wheel pick is you can worry less about exact ranks and just take pairs of guys that fit your needs. Lowry or bledsoe is commonly available in round 4. So you could likely pick the best big man and PG in each of your next 2 pairs after kat. Then fill out wing positions and keep taking best player available to fit your gaps. There are nice pockets of point guards and bigs later in the draft. 

 

In the doncic thread you can see why I sour on him and prefer him in a punt build. I agree about some late PG targets, FVV and Teague being among them. I think there's some excellent PG value in the 8th round. Teague can outplay his ADP by about 3-4 rounds, like Paul he had a down year in FG% and he had injury issues. They're going to play more up-tempo this year, if he gets back to his career norms that's a massive steal in that round as he's replicating a far higher PG value while people are busy going for sleepers in those rounds.

Really liking some of the value picks this year.

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For the TL;DR crowd, to sum up my balance strategy:

Draft bigs and pgs early who don't hurt you (bigs who block and shoot a decent percentage, bigs who assist or shoot threes but also block/steal, guards who block - dont grab guards who don't shoot threes or dont steal at least once per game, look for out of position stats).
 

Look for the valuable 1/1/1 SFs in the 6th - 8th (bridges, oubre, richardson, Isaac, etc.), and focus on 3 point shooting SGs/SFs later in the draft (you can find a ton of shooting in the last 4 rounds).

Ignore PFs in the first 4-5 rounds, let other people take the Siakams, the JJJs, the Collins, the Markkanen, the Porzingiseseses. SF/PF should be seen as the 'supporting' position, not the catalyst position. Let them to boost up your other guys. For example TJ Warren is a target for me in the 8th-9th in this build; or a Derrick White at the PG spot (out of position blocks, if he ups the threes and FT% you have a guy giving you top 50 value), etc.  This is predicated upon the fact that while JJJ may be elite in blocks, lets say he gives me 50% / 78% / 1 / 1 / 1.5 and 1.5 3's, TJ Warren gives me 48% / 78% / 1 / 1+ / .7, so why am I spending a top 3 round pick on something I can replicate several rounds later? Conversely, if I take Trae Young in the 2nd, I'm not finding a 23-25 and 8-10 assists and 3+ threes PG in the 8th. The value difference between this PG and another is huge, where as you can replicate an Otto Porter with someone later on (like Isaac like Warren, etc.).

Now of course this strategy isn't for everyone, if you're in the back end and you love LeBron, take him, this is more so for people who prefer efficient builds with high floor players mixed with young upside but that also covers almost all categories while nailing guys who boost up your cats out of position. This way you're not reliant on a Mitch Robinson to save you in blocks all year. That being said, don't ignore it entirely, there's value for guys like Rubio in this build. What we need to pay attention to is attempts. If they have heavy attempts that means they'll have more of a penalty on that category and your bigs or guards won't be able to compensate. So if a big is good in a lot of cats you like but you aren't punting FT, don't let them destroy you with heavy volume, so a McGee is great, but a Capela or Gobert is not for this particular build.

That's as best as I can summarize.

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4 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

For the TL;DR crowd, to sum up my balance strategy:

Draft bigs and pgs early who don't hurt you (bigs who block and shoot a decent percentage, bigs who assist or shoot threes but also block/steal, guards who block - dont grab guards who don't shoot threes or dont steal at least once per game, look for out of position stats).
 

Look for the valuable 1/1/1 SFs in the 6th - 8th (bridges, oubre, richardson, Isaac, etc.), and focus on 3 point shooting SGs/SFs later in the draft (you can find a ton of shooting in the last 4 rounds).

Ignore PFs in the first 4-5 rounds, let other people take the Siakams, the JJJs, the Collins, the Markkanen, the Porzingiseseses. SF/PF should be seen as the 'supporting' position, not the catalyst position. Let them to boost up your other guys. For example TJ Warren is a target for me in the 8th-9th in this build; or a Derrick White at the PG spot (out of position blocks, if he ups the threes and FT% you have a guy giving you top 50 value), etc.  This is predicated upon the fact that while JJJ may be elite in blocks, lets say he gives me 50% / 78% / 1 / 1 / 1.5 and 1.5 3's, TJ Warren gives me 48% / 78% / 1 / 1+ / .7, so why am I spending a top 3 round pick on something I can replicate several rounds later? Conversely, if I take Trae Young in the 2nd, I'm not finding a 23-25 and 8-10 assists and 3+ threes PG in the 8th. The value difference between this PG and another is huge, where as you can replicate an Otto Porter with someone later on (like Isaac like Warren, etc.).

Now of course this strategy isn't for everyone, if you're in the back end and you love LeBron, take him, this is more so for people who prefer efficient builds with high floor players mixed with young upside but that also covers almost all categories while nailing guys who boost up your cats out of position. This way you're not reliant on a Mitch Robinson to save you in blocks all year. That being said, don't ignore it entirely, there's value for guys like Rubio in this build. What we need to pay attention to is attempts. If they have heavy attempts that means they'll have more of a penalty on that category and your bigs or guards won't be able to compensate. So if a big is good in a lot of cats you like but you aren't punting FT, don't let them destroy you with heavy volume, so a McGee is great, but a Capela or Gobert is not for this particular build.

That's as best as I can summarize.

I draft the best player available. Then I order a pizza.

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Posted (edited)

I really appreciate all this research what Lifschitz has done, but I have to say honestly: I always go to the draft without any specific plan. Why I don't planning? Answer is simple: I don't know in advance what my rivals are doing, it means I don't know who is available when my pick comes. Also I don't like word "building". Usually this word means you need to find a brick that will fit exactly into the wall. In this strategy I feel itself limited because only few players fit into my system if I decide to do something special. Therefore I don't build but collect players. I can be honest: after this kind of draft many times projections predicted my total failure. However, usually these projections have been wrong. I never do mock drafts which is complete waste of time. But I prepare carefully my prerank.

Edited by apatas
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4 minutes ago, apatas said:

Why I don't planning? Answer is simple: I don't know in advance what my rivals are doing, it means I don't know who is available when my pick comes. 

Exactly.  OP's plan sounds fine.  But when someone throws a wrench into it (and they will) it's all going to be for naught.  In movies and comic books, the villains always know exactly what the heroes are going to do, down to where they'll be standing at a specific moment a month into the evil plan, so a piano can fall on their head or whatever.  Fantasy drafts aren't so perfect.

everybody-has-a-plan-until-they-get-punc

I try to put players into little compartments, then draft from those compartments as I see fit.  For example, Love and Markkanen are in the same compartment: center eligible fg% punt, 3 point making big men.  Not that it would be practical in any way this year, but Curry and Lillard are in the same compartment: PGs who get you a s--- ton of threes, points, and ft%.

Then as you go through the draft, you see what you need.  Am I punting blocks and fg% and need a big man? Let me look at that compartment.  Love is gone but I don't want to take Lauri yet?  Okay, let's look at PGs that fit that build.  Oh, Rozier is there?  Maybe.  Middleton is still available?! Okay, I'll pick him and come back to big men next round.

Basically, for every punt build and every player you want to fit that, you should have an OML (military talk, Order of Merit List) for a few players that are like that ideal player but a little worse.  So that when your dude is taken, all you have to do is consult your lists in each compartment and take the next best guy to fit what you're doing.  You only have like 90-120 seconds, you shouldn't be doing any research then.  Just looking at your lists, looking at the guys you already have, and going from there.  Saying in round 1 I'll take this guy, round 2 this guy, round 3 this guy is just a recipe for disaster.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

Exactly.  OP's plan sounds fine.  But when someone throws a wrench into it (and they will) it's all going to be for naught.  In movies and comic books, the villains always know exactly what the heroes are going to do, down to where they'll be standing at a specific moment a month into the evil plan, so a piano can fall on their head or whatever.  Fantasy drafts aren't so perfect.

everybody-has-a-plan-until-they-get-punc

I try to put players into little compartments, then draft from those compartments as I see fit.  For example, Love and Markkanen are in the same compartment: center eligible fg% punt, 3 point making big men.  Not that it would be practical in any way this year, but Curry and Lillard are in the same compartment: PGs who get you a s--- ton of threes, points, and ft%.

Then as you go through the draft, you see what you need.  Am I punting blocks and fg% and need a big man? Let me look at that compartment.  Love is gone but I don't want to take Lauri yet?  Okay, let's look at PGs that fit that build.  Oh, Rozier is there?  Maybe.  Middleton is still available?! Okay, I'll pick him and come back to big men next round.

Basically, for every punt build and every player you want to fit that, you should have an OML (military talk, Order of Merit List) for a few players that are like that ideal player but a little worse.  So that when your dude is taken, all you have to do is consult your lists in each compartment and take the next best guy to fit what you're doing.  You only have like 90-120 seconds, you shouldn't be doing any research then.  Just looking at your lists, looking at the guys you already have, and going from there.  Saying in round 1 I'll take this guy, round 2 this guy, round 3 this guy is just a recipe for disaster.

 

I’ve tested this, it works because the depth of the league is far greater now, each round gives me 5-6 viable candidates, and I’ve never not built the team I’ve wanted. 

This is a draft strategy, just like punting a cat. But it differs from a roto friendly efficiency balance build because it looks for higher upside players than Danny green and joe Ingles (although they also fit this beautifully - so they’re targets as well).

Regardless this gives people another option to explore if they went into the draft thinking this is who I’ll get at my spot.

My league randomizes far before draft time so everyone has time to prep for their pick and who goes in their range, which makes it easier planning wise.

 

Edited by Lifschitz

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4 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

 

I’ve tested this, it works because the depth of the league is so strong now, each round gives me 5-6 viable candidates, and I’ve never not built the team I’ve wanted. 

Well then we're in agreement: have a list of those 5-6 guys.  You should basically have a list of 5-6 guys:

-for every position 

- for every round

- for every punt 

Up until like the 7th round.  It's a lot of work, but if you do a dozen or more leagues, like I do, you only have to do that work once and it helps you 12+ times.

Your position is slightly easier because you control who you're getting in the first round.  The 5 spot this year is a great position to be in, because all of the top five guys are awesome.  But if you don't know which of them you're gonna get, you have to be ready for any punt.

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Posted (edited)

What is also interesting that many fantasy managers have their targeted players. I have read some RW experts columns where they say: I target this player aggressively almost every draft where I participate. OK, I also have some players which I rank higher than their usual ADP. It could mean that they are my "targets". But if at the moment of my pick are available some other players whom I ranked higher I take one of them and not my "target" player. My personal opinion is that if it is not right time to pick my favourite player (just because I consider him not BPA) then I don't pick him. Then draft is over and I finally discover that it went not as I expected. Every year it goes the same way...

Edited by apatas
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2 minutes ago, apatas said:

 Then draft is over and I finally discover that it went not as I expected. Every year it goes the same way...

In my "family league" (not family, but you know: basically the same people who all know each other doing is for...this will be year 12) it's a tradition now: either during or at the end of every single one, someone says "Weird draft".  It's like Star Wars and "I've got a bad feeling about this".  Someone ALWAYS thinks the draft was weird as f---.

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4 minutes ago, apatas said:

What is also interesting that many fantasy managers have their targeted players. I have read some RW experts columns where they say: I target this player aggressively almost every draft where I participate. OK, I also have some players which I rank higher than their usual ADP. It could mean that they are my "targets". But if at the moment of my pick are available some other players whom I ranked higher I take one of them and not my "target" player. My personal opinion is that if it is not right time to pick my favourite player (just because I consider him not BPA) then I don't pick him. Then draft is over and I finally discover that it went not as I expected. Every year it goes the same way...

Agree on this. But if you know that your "target" player is not going to be available the next round you pick, you should not be hesitant to snipe especially if you badly need that player for your build. There should be common logic into this though and not to badly overreach. Sniping is good, just not a drastic overpay. 

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I don’t come into any draft with any preset strategy with the exception that if it’s snake and I know my draft position before hand I will research who is likely to be available.

 

Rather, I go over tons of simulated teams in the offseason using the team analysis tool in BBM, and figure out which players go well with others.  I also do a lot of mock drafts.  By the time I’ve gotten to my big cash leagues I’ve gone through so many simulations/mocks that I’m prepared for whatever happens. 

 

When it’s snake I draft BPA the first six rounds or so and go from there.  I use the team analysis tool to determine how I’m doing in each cat (I use the free version of BBM instead of draft tracker).  If I notice I’m weak in a cat I will do one of two things. If I can repair that cat cheaply I will do so otherwise I turn off the filter for that cat.  The back half of drafts I go purely for upside with the exception that I slightly prioritize filling positions of need.  

 

If it’s H2H I adjust a player up or down a round from their per game averages based on injury history and/or fantasy playoff schedule.  I use a simple formula which is basically the percentage of games they play on average by their playoff schedule.  Eg if a player such as Donovan Mitchell has no significant injury history and a 4-4-3 schedule then I assign him 110% value.  So I take his per game z score.  Conversely if there is someone like Otto who has a 3-3-3 schedule and has slight injury history then I’d put him on 8 games during the fantasy playoffs and  multiply his z score by .8.  In this particular case I would use his z score from Chicago. 

 

If it’s auction in some ways it’s even easier.  I simply assign a value to each player based on their z score and I adjust up/down based on the other factors: injury history etc  I don’t have a strategy other than to get guys who I consider the best value.  I could operate auctions using a bot with my preset values but drafting is fun.  

 

 

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9 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

Ignore PFs in the first 4-5 rounds, let other people take the Siakams, the JJJs, the Collins, the Markkanen, the Porzingiseseses.

 

So you are picking Conley or Brolo over Siakam ? :unsure:

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11 minutes ago, GrandGourou said:

 

So you are picking Conley or Brolo over Siakam ? :unsure:

 

What? They don’t even go in the same round and yes I would prioritize Conley over siakam in my build but Conley isn’t the bpa nor is siakam, booker and Mitchell are.

I like siakam, I would roster him on every team if I could, not at his current valuation. I’m bypassing a big or a guard that can get me blocks and other goodies.

Lopez gets drafted two three rounds down. I don’t draft him because he doesn’t steal board or assist well, I’d be tanking assists pairing him with towns. It would be horford or bam in that area. I don’t like one dimensional players in early rounds.

 I even said Siakam fits my build, but I can’t justify his adp because I’m looking for the dominant scarce categories here. I’ll be playing catch up. That’s the premise.

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3 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

 

What? They don’t even go in the same round and yes I would prioritize Conley over siakam in my build but Conley isn’t the bpa nor is siakam, booker and Mitchell are.

I like siakam, I would roster him on every team if I could, not at his current valuation. I’m bypassing a big or a guard that can get me blocks and other goodies.

Lopez gets drafted two three rounds down. I don’t draft him because he doesn’t steal board or assist well, I’d be tanking assists pairing him with towns. It would be horford or bam in that area. I don’t like one dimensional players in early rounds.

 I even said Siakam fits my build, but I can’t justify his adp because I’m looking for the dominant scarce categories here. I’ll be playing catch up. That’s the premise.

It’s not even as if your strategy is that controversial.  I generally get all bigs and point guards the first seven or so rounds because I don’t prioritize points/threes highly and SG is the weakest position.  However, that’s why someone like Harden or Butler can be prioritized, assuming it makes sense to pick them there, because it means you’re not forced to pick a weak shooting guard later just to fill the position. But pick point guards and centers is a common technique (not really a strategy).  When my wife first began playing fantasy basketball that’s the initial advice I gave her and I’d give to any beginner.  Not implying you’re a beginner, it’s simply something easy to follow. 

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Posted (edited)

ALWAYS ALWAYS draft players that give at least 1 stock. gives you a lot more flexibility. 

ALWAYS ALWAYS stay away from teams with bad playoff schedules. especially if your league doesnt trade much. 

Edited by WhatIsThisWizardry

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5 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

It’s not even as if your strategy is that controversial.  I generally get all bigs and point guards the first seven or so rounds because I don’t prioritize points/threes highly and SG is the weakest position.  However, that’s why someone like Harden or Butler can be prioritized, assuming it makes sense to pick them there, because it means you’re not forced to pick a weak shooting guard later just to fill the position. But pick point guards and centers is a common technique (not really a strategy).  When my wife first began playing fantasy basketball that’s the initial advice I gave her and I’d give to any beginner.  Not implying you’re a beginner, it’s simply something easy to follow. 

 

That part is not the hard part, it’s conventional, but people underrate players who give out of position stats in this regard. Case in point he mentions brook lopez. For example I’ve often told people draft jrue holiday 8th to 10th and they can’t understand it. Look at his stats, he’s one of the only guards that well rounded and is a very good shot blocking pg, those extra 3 4 blocks in a week can win you the category, and he’s still improving despite his longevity.

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Just now, Lifschitz said:

 

That part is not the hard part, it’s conventional, but people underrate players who give out of position stats in this regard. Case in point he mentions brook lopez. For example I’ve often told people draft jrue holiday 8th to 10th and they can’t understand it. Look at his stats, he’s one of the only guards that well rounded and is a very good shot blocking pg, those extra 3 4 blocks in a week can win you the category, and he’s still improving despite his longevity.

Regarding the efficiency cats the best thing you can do is draft guards with FG that are higher than normal and bigs that have FT that are higher than normal.  Regarding counting stats well there’s no prescribed formula.  You take it wherever you get it. 

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I do go in with a general strategy of the type of team I am trying to build out for that year.  But usually my strategy begins with a couple of guys I deem must-draft guys and they then will shape the overall strategy and build.

For example, during Nerlens Noel's first year playing, he was the first guy I determined very early in the process that I was going to make sure I drafted because looking at his college stats, I was amazed at the potential of him being a 2 steal, 2 block guy. I also knew that I wanted to draft Andre Drummond as well because I was excited about how Stan Van Gundy was going to use him going into his third year and thought he was going to have a monster year.  And if I have to reach a little to make sure I get them, I do that.

So based on where I see best to draft those few targets, the overall build that I am looking to do, ADPs, and a few mocks - I then loosely map out my picks for each round.  But I always remain flexible to readjust with a lot of back-up plans in case my first choice gets sniped or if someone falls that I wasn't expecting.  A few years back I had not planned on drafting CJ, but unexpectedly he fell so I picked him.

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2 hours ago, apatas said:

I really appreciate all this research what Lifschitz has done, but I have to say honestly: I always go to the draft without any specific plan. Why I don't planning? Answer is simple: I don't know in advance what my rivals are doing, it means I don't know who is available when my pick comes. Also I don't like word "building". Usually this word means you need to find a brick that will fit exactly into the wall. In this strategy I feel itself limited because only few players fit into my system if I decide to do something special. Therefore I don't build but collect players. I can be honest: after this kind of draft many times projections predicted my total failure. However, usually these projections have been wrong. I never do mock drafts which is complete waste of time. But I prepare carefully my prerank.

Thanks OP - This is definitely more valuable for people who are playing keeper leagues where you maybe already have 2 or 3 or more players going into the draft, and have a more established strategy based on who they already have.

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19 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

For example, during Nerlens Noel's first year playing, he was the first guy I determined very early in the process that I was going to make sure I drafted because looking at his college stats, I was amazed at the potential of him being a 2 steal, 2 block guy. I also knew that I wanted to draft Andre Drummond as well because I was excited about how Stan Van Gundy was going to use him going into his third year and thought he was going to have a monster year.  And if I have to reach a little to make sure I get them, I do that.

And how did Noel work out for you?  😂  I’m just razzing you.  

 

Ofc I also come into a draft with targets, but that’s generally based on players who I think are undervalued, such as Lowry this year. 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

And how did Noel work out for you?  😂  I’m just razzing you.  

 

Ofc I also come into a draft with targets, but that’s generally based on players who I think are undervalued, such as Lowry this year. 

 

It was the first year he played (not his actual rookie year where he essentially redshirted), so he worked out great and I won that year.

Players become essential targets for me for a variety of reasons so yeah being undervalued can definitely be one of them.  TJ Warren is someone I targeted very early in the process as a must-draft because of how much he is being undervalued this year, and how good I think he is going to be on a Pacers that need his scoring.  Oladipo won't affect him when he comes back - he played with Booker and still got his buckets.  I think this is the year he actually stays healthy too.  All the makings of an all-star season.

Edit: I just saw that they played today and he got 30 - wow, yeah, I might have to readjust and reach even more now to make sure I get him - haha

Edited by Tekno Team 2000
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7 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

It was the first year he played (not his actual rookie year where he essentially redshirted), so he worked out great and I won that year.

Players become essential targets for me for a variety of reasons so yeah being undervalued can definitely be one of them.  TJ Warren is someone I targeted very early in the process as a must-draft because of how much he is being undervalued this year, and how good I think he is going to be on a Pacers that need his scoring.  Oladipo won't affect him when he comes back - he played with Booker and still got his buckets.  I think this is the year he actually stays healthy too.  All the makings of an all-star season.

Edit: I just saw that they played today and he got 30 - wow, yeah, I might have to readjust and reach even more now to make sure I get him - haha

Yeah. I think when most people say must target its usually hyped guys that they like.  For me, and you sounds like, it’s players I think are under the radar.  Not necessarily sleepers.  An incomplete list of guys I like this year would be: punt FT guys particularly Drummond;  Jazz players for playoff schedule in H2H; underrated bc old: LMA, Draymond, Lowry, Horford etc; injury prone but worth the risk: Warren, Gallo, Zeller; underrated bc their skill set isn’t valued properly: Roco, Otto, Bridges bros, Smart; late round bounce back candidates: Teague, Gary.  When I say I don’t come in with a strategy that’s true but I have a pretty good idea of the guys I think will exceed their ADP.  

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