Sign in to follow this  
Lifschitz

Preseason Caveat

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Just want to put this out there, when people go on a long hiatus from fantasy bball over the course of the summer, we all inevitably get excited for things to start up again, to see how our sleepers and hyped players are doing, let's not forget this is preseason.

1. odd rotations - look at some of these lineups the Spurs played, if you see guys going off, notice that the other team isn't putting their real roster out there most of the time. Not to mention teams are playing teams that aren't even in the NBA.

2. Teams aren't trying hard on defense. Granted the clippers/houston game started off intense and then got lax (little bit of excitement and rivalry there with Bev vs his former team plus Russ/Harden hate Bev, etc.), but overall teams are just running up and down and it's mostly a more intense practice/scrimmage session. NBA physicality and when teams are actually trying to win a game is far harder. 

3. In the past, players regularly dominate in the preseason only to disappear completely once the regular season rolls around. They saw their draft stock soar, only to then have their rank go back to where they were slated to be originally picked (if not worse). 

I see people get excited about a Brogdon 14 assist game, then the next game he does nothing and they start saying well there is the real Brogdon, or there is the real Warren, it doesn't really matter what happens in preseason. Warren explodes for 30 and then scores 6 or whatever the next day, that's not going to happen during the regular season, there won't be these wide gaps from game to game, because players take games seriously.

My suggestion is don't change your pre-ranks based on preseason, perhaps slightly where it's warranted, but don't drastically move guys up because you see them put together a string of dominant preseason performances, it's not worth it. Let other guys overpay for the preseason hype while you sneak in the guys you originally had slated. 

Usually there isn't much variance from where you had them ranked to when the regular season starts (unless you projected wildly). 

I'm barely paying attention to preseason this year outside of checking boxscores half heartedly and some highlights, because I don't want it to skew where I have guys going. I have a good idea of where I want my players, and if the past has taught me anything its not to overrate preseason performances, it's caused me to take guys 3-4 rounds higher out of fear someone else will grab them, and I ended up paying dearly as guys took safer/more productive players in those rounds.

 

 

Edited by Lifschitz
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

Just want to put this out there, when people go on a long hiatus from fantasy bball over the course of the summer, we all inevitably get excited for things to start up again, to see how our sleepers and hyped players are doing, let's not forget this is preseason.

1. odd rotations - look at some of these lineups the Spurs played, if you see guys going off, notice that the other team isn't putting their real roster out there most of the time. Not to mention teams are playing teams that aren't even in the NBA.

2. Teams aren't trying hard on defense. Granted the clippers/houston game started off intense and then got lax (little bit of excitement and rivalry there with Bev vs his former team plus Russ/Harden hate Bev, etc.), but overall teams are just running up and down and it's mostly a more intense practice/scrimmage session. NBA physicality and when teams are actually trying to win a game is far harder. 

3. In the past, players regularly dominate in the preseason only to disappear completely once the regular season rolls around. They saw their draft stock soar, only to then have their rank go back to where they were slated to be originally picked (if not worse). 

I see people get excited about a Brogdon 14 assist game, then the next game he does nothing and they start saying well there is the real Brogdon, or there is the real Warren, it doesn't really matter what happens in preseason. Warren explodes for 30 and then scores 6 or whatever the next day, that's not going to happen during the regular season, there won't be these wide gaps from game to game, because players take games seriously.

My suggestion is don't change your pre-ranks based on preseason, perhaps slightly where it's warranted, but don't drastically move guys up because you see them put together a string of dominant preseason performances, it's not worth it. Let other guys overpay for the preseason hype while you sneak in the guys you originally had slated. 

Usually there isn't much variance from where you had them ranked to when the regular season starts (unless you projected wildly). 

I'm barely paying attention to preseason this year outside of checking boxscores half heartedly and some highlights, because I don't want it to skew where I have guys going. I have a good idea of where I want my players, and if the past has taught me anything its not to overrate preseason performances, it's caused me to take guys 3-4 rounds higher out of fear someone else will grab them, and I ended up paying dearly as guys took safer/more productive players in those rounds.

 

 

while true, it was also preseason that allowed me to find out about porzingis during his rookie year sooo while you have a point, the opposite case could still be made. of course theres g2 be other factors going into your decision on drafting said hyped rookie tho. 

Edited by WhatIsThisWizardry
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it’s the same sort of thing as MitchRob putting up top 15 value in the last two months of the season.  That’s not at all indicative of whether he can do that for an entire season but it does show that he can do that for brief periods of time.  He has that potential.  Preseason does highlight a player’s upside. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WhatIsThisWizardry said:

while true, it was also preseason that allowed me to find out about porzingis during his rookie year sooo while you have a point, the opposite case could still be made. of course theres g2 be other factors going into your decision on drafting said hyped rookie tho. 

No offense, but not sure why it required preseason games to "find out" about porzingis. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

No offense, but not sure why it required preseason games to "find out" about porzingis. 

Porzingis was litteraly described as the second coming of Andrea Bargnani up to the pre-season of his rookie year

He was on the radar of NOBODY

Edited by BbFlyEmCeE
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

No offense, but not sure why it required preseason games to "find out" about porzingis. 

 

It's the eye test.  Porzingis hadn't played in the NBA, and until a player does we have no idea if they'll be good or not.  There was massive debate last year about Trae Young and Luka, because they were good but no one knew if they would actually be good.  Hell some people still aren't convinced.

Other examples are KAT, Lillard, Donnie Mitchell...these are guys that no one knew their massive value until they started killing it and passed the eye test, and even then we didn't know until they proved it.  Ayton is another one last year...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, BbFlyEmCeE said:

Porzingis was litteraly described as the second coming of Andrea Bargnani up to the pre-season of his rookie year

He was on the radar of NOBODY

Huh?  Ok since you say so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

It's the eye test.  Porzingis hadn't played in the NBA, and until a player does we have no idea if they'll be good or not.  There was massive debate last year about Trae Young and Luka, because they were good but no one knew if they would actually be good.  Hell some people still aren't convinced.

Other examples are KAT, Lillard, Donnie Mitchell...these are guys that no one knew their massive value until they started killing it and passed the eye test, and even then we didn't know until they proved it.  Ayton is another one last year...

Well...……………….The fans of New York booed Kristaps but a lot of analysts thought he would be good.  How ironic that the one ******** good thing that happened to them they booed.  Luka was also underrated, it's almost as if we're seeing a pattern of xenophobic Americans undervaluing Europeans.  Take Vuc, for example.

 

The other examples you bring up are huge misses for me.  The people of this forum practically shouted at the top of their lungs how good KAT would be.  Trae had his detractors and his supporters.  At a minimum I remember LuSuSiam predicting Mitchell's breakout. 

 

If anything the people of this forum tend to hype everyone and then when one hits it's more of a even a broken clock is right twice a day sort of thing.  

 

Kristaps and Luka not receiving much praise is an outlier I can only attribute to anti-European bias. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Well...……………….The fans of New York booed Kristaps but a lot of analysts thought he would be good.  How ironic that the one ******** good thing that happened to them they booed.  Luka was also underrated, it's almost as if we're seeing a pattern of xenophobic Americans undervaluing Europeans.  Take Vuc, for example.

 

The other examples you bring up are huge misses for me.  The people of this forum practically shouted at the top of their lungs how good KAT would be.  Trae had his detractors and his supporters.  At a minimum I remember LuSuSiam predicting Mitchell's breakout. 

 

If anything the people of this forum tend to hype everyone and then when one hits it's more of a even a broken clock is right twice a day sort of thing.  

 

Kristaps and Luka not receiving much praise is an outlier I can only attribute to anti-European bias. 

 

I still think its one of those things that Summer League / Pre-season confirms.  Can player x actually be good in the NBA?  I don't care what LuSuSiam or other posters say I want to see Donnie ball out even if its just preseason.  After player x balls out in preseason, like Ayton, then the hype really starts building and everyone gets carried away.  He went from top 50-ish maybe he might be good to top 30 probably solely because he killed it in the preseason last year.  Like you said it highlights a player's upside, and may I add it also confirms certain skill sets.  This year so far in Summer League, (I know, even worse than pre-season for judging players), I saw Brandon Clarke translate his athleticism and IQ against a higher level of competition, and also saw that he can develop into an above average 3 point shooter, a skill he didn't show up until that point, but it will add immense value to his projections over time.

 

Agree with the Euros...Americans always think they're the best in everything.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

Huh?  Ok since you say so.

Dude, people were laughing at Phil Jackson left and right when he drafted him. Not only for taking him, but for the way he was selling it to everyone.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

As for the OP, i sorta agree. Someone like Morant for example, i don't understand why hes ranked so high having never played an NBA game so we have no idea how good or not good hes going to be. Now this afternoon hes looking pretty tasty on the statline, BUT, keep in mind hes playing against the little sisters of the poor. Would've liked to have seen a couple samples, even preseason samples, against real NBA competition

Edited by Dominator83
added text
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

And to add, Bruno Caboclo needs to be fed this season one way or another. He's getting overlooked by more well established players and it hurts. Lengthy and hungry -- I like his ceiling IRL and for fantasy purposes (1/1/1)....but preseason. 

Edited by MysticPeak
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Dominator83 said:

Dude, people were laughing at Phil Jackson left and right when he drafted him. Not only for taking him, but for the way he was selling it to everyone.

I wasn't laughing.  I think the masses who were laughing were caught up in their own anti-euro bias.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, a-rob said:

So many Euro prospects were busts so yeah people majority of the people were not sure what to think of kristaps when he was drafted

Well there are more American busts by many times over. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I didn’t think it needed to be stated that rookies are on a per individual basis.

I drafted Towns 4th round, obviously you can use preseason to determine their role and skill, for example no one knows where to peg hachimura despite the fact he’ll have a large role as the season goes on.

If they’re a top 5-15 pick (sometimes lower like capela etc) with hype it’s a no brainer you’ll be watching. It’s also draft class dependent.

I saw people pick Lonzo ball 4th 5th round, and I’m a strong believer Zion will be a bust compared to his draft position. Those people paid dearly in the standings.

There is no precedent here, rookies come with considerable risk/reward. How many rookies in the past decade outplay their ADP? Maybe a handful, generally it’s the rookies off the wire you didn’t expect who make noise (Donovan Mitchell in most leagues). 

there’ll always be a couple of rookies who contribute nicely every season, but you also know they come with baggage (efficiency and high turnover issues such as Doncic).

This is more of a general thing anyhow, it was a response to seeing people sour on warren just one day after saying “great now his adp is going to shoot up”. Established players don’t make quantum jumps, it’s usually incremental. There will always be a few exceptions who have career seasons, that’s part and parcel. Either way, the preseason and real season are two different leagues entirely.. 

preseason is more of a gauge to see that hey his three point stroke is looking better, or his handle is tighter, he’s going to have a bigger role, etc.

I often find when I see peoples projections they will put an extra 7 8 9 ppg on some of their guys and a plethora of stocks and goodies, and I’m always reminded of what a close friend of mine who picks high floor mid to low ceiling teams told me - keep your projections modest and low, and if they do better than that you’re golden.

Like we can presume Ayton is going to make a 16 ppg to 19 ppg jump, fine, but don’t suddenly bump his blocks up to 1.5 because it makes your projection look sexy. Many expects Siakam to suddenly average 25 ppg, and I think he’s capable, but it’ll be his first year as the lead guy without the extra spacing green and kawhi provide, so it’s much better to take him from 17 to 19, and if he does better great, and if not, then there’s no loss, it’ll at least give you far more accurate assessments as opposed to making your entire roster full of guys ranked in 30s and 50s.

Preseason contributes to this because the long layoff from bball makes people forget that it’s never been a good indicator for stat jumps (for established players).

On a side note I was laughing the other day when RW was like yeah look at isaacs amazing line in preseason! He had 5 points 2 steals and a block, amazing! they’re so scared that their draft guide is off and they’ve been hyping him nonstop that they forgot he’s the 5th option on offence with the lowest usage. They have multiple bench players with higher usage than him. 

Edited by Lifschitz
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, a-rob said:

So many Euro prospects were busts so yeah people majority of the people were not sure what to think of kristaps when he was drafted

This tired narrative has to stop.  Just a quick glance at the AMERICAN busts, only looking at the top 10 picks from 1st round of 2015 draft in which KP was selected:

(3) Jahlil Okafor - taken one spot ahead of KP

(6) WCS

(8) Stanley Johnson

(9) Frank Kaminsky

Edited by El_Chingon
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

 

On a side note I was laughing the other day when RW was like yeah look at isaacs amazing line in preseason! He had 5 points 2 steals and a block, amazing! they’re so scared that their draft guide is off and they’ve been hyping him nonstop that they forgot he’s the 5th option on offence with the lowest usage. They have multiple bench players with higher usage than him. 

To be fair, Isaac's value will lie in categories outside of scoring. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

To be fair, Isaac's value will lie in categories outside of scoring. 

 

Definitely, I don't dispute that, Jerami Grant was a very solid player last season (Isaac higher FT%, Grant higher FG), but I'm not willing to pay a top 5 round ADP for a guy who may average 9 points but give me 1+ steal 1+ block and 1+ three. That's just as likely to recur as it is for him to jump to 12-15 ppg which would really help his value. I just don't see how he does that when he's surrounded by Vucevic, Augustin, Gordon, Fournier, and Terrence Ross, 4 of these guys are complete chuckers. I predict around 10-11 at best unless they move Fournier and/or Vuc. Don't forget Fultz is now in the mix as well.

There are a few very solid 1/1/1 players with a higher scoring ceiling which you can get 2-3 rounds later and have a better situation (Bridges and Oubre for example).

I mean heck I can get Danny Green in the 11th round and he'll replicate isaac's value at a fraction of the cost, so we're purely paying for speculative upside here.

Edited by Lifschitz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

No offense, but not sure why it required preseason games to "find out" about porzingis. 

I am sorry, but finding out about him earlier doesn't matter as long as you know before your draft. get off your high horse lol 

you weren't laughing? LITERALLY all NYK fans BOO'd as he was drafted

 

Edited by WhatIsThisWizardry

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WhatIsThisWizardry said:

I am sorry, but finding out about him earlier doesn't matter as long as you know before your draft. get off your high horse lol 

you weren't laughing? LITERALLY all NYK fans BOO'd as he was drafted

 

Yeah  I remember, thought they were really stupid when they were booing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

Yeah  I remember, thought they were really stupid when they were booing.

Regardless, it proves my point that preseason was in fact needed

The general public didnt even know about him. As a fantasy player he wasnt on my radar. Who knew skinny andrea would become unicorn?

Edited by WhatIsThisWizardry

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.