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Brandon Ingram 2019-2020 Outlook

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10 minutes ago, Igno said:

To be fair, this was posted before the start of the season, and he was making valid points about Ingram's puzzling stats fantasy-wise. Who could predict Ingram as a favorite for the MIP award? I didn't. The most impressive thing about Ingram's upgraded numbers this season is rebs and stocks boost. His thin frame does not look as a disadvantage anymore, quite the opposite. Ok, sure, increased usage/scoring with better percentages is also impressive. If he improves his ft % even more, he is nearing 2nd round value long term.

 

I predicted it, but that's not the point. His skills were notably increasing, especially having watched him play, and not many guys fail when they are are 6'10+ with a handle + decent shot. 

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33 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

 

Lol gotta love this post.

 

This man really said Ingram will be the 3rd option at best. 

This man really mentioned Reddick and Favors like that. 

This man really said he doesn't get Ingram's appeal in fantasy. 

This man really said he's a horrible free throw shooter.  Shooting 75% from the line on 5.7 attempts.

This man really said he's not a great rebounder or a good 3pt shooter.  Averaging 7.4 rebounds and shooting 45% on 5.5 attempts from 3. 

 

 

 

And I gotta love the smaller sample size of this year versus years of Ingram that determined what I said before the season started.

If everything holds the whole season then yes he has improved and I would be wrong on him. No problem admitting that. But are they? Are you sure?

Is Zion playing yet? When he does, we will see if he still isn’t at the end of the day the third option. Why is it “OMG I can’t believe he said that” to think Jrue and Zion would be higher than him in the pecking order before the season started? #1 pick in Zion and the guy they called their best player in Jrue.

So Redick and Favors aren’t solid vets that should get touches? Favors has been dinged up and Redick is just now coming on. What is absurd about what I said regarding them?

62% FT his first year in the NBA. 68% his second year. 67.5% his third year. 196 games. Would you not call that a bad FT shooter up to that point? What was crazy about it? He shot in the 60s in college too. 74.6% in 11 games this year. Cool. Better but still not a good FT if he keeps that up.

29.4% three point his first year. 39% his second year. 33% his third year. 196 games. All on low volume for a reason. Is that not a bad three point shooter tho up to that point? Again, why is this crazy? He is shooting 45% on 5.5 attempts in 11 games. Cool. You sure he is keeping that up? For example, you know what Klay shot in threes last year?40%. The year before. 44%. So he is going to shoot better than Klay?

Averaging 7 rebounds still doesn’t make him a good rebounder but when I said it he was 4, 5.3, 5.1 in three years. At that point, would you call that a good rebounder? Would you call 7 a good rebounder?

I didn’t get his appeal in fantasy considering where he had been drafted the past three years. Poor FT%, no threes, not great stocks, not great rebounding. Just scoring. Cool that you thought he was going to improve to be a 25.6 scorer with across the board improvements, but 11 games in doesn’t make my comments of 196 games of data insane nor does it really make you right yet.

 

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44 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

And I gotta love the smaller sample size of this year versus years of Ingram that determined what I said before the season started.

If everything holds the whole season then yes he has improved and I would be wrong on him. No problem admitting that. But are they? Are you sure?

Is Zion playing yet? When he does, we will see if he still isn’t at the end of the day the third option. Why is it “OMG I can’t believe he said that” to think Jrue and Zion would be higher than him in the pecking order before the season started? #1 pick in Zion and the guy they called their best player in Jrue.

So Redick and Favors aren’t solid vets that should get touches? Favors has been dinged up and Redick is just now coming on. What is absurd about what I said regarding them?

62% FT his first year in the NBA. 68% his second year. 67.5% his third year. 196 games. Would you not call that a bad FT shooter up to that point? What was crazy about it? He shot in the 60s in college too. 74.6% in 11 games this year. Cool. Better but still not a good FT if he keeps that up.

29.4% three point his first year. 39% his second year. 33% his third year. 196 games. All on low volume for a reason. Is that not a bad three point shooter tho up to that point? Again, why is this crazy? He is shooting 45% on 5.5 attempts in 11 games. Cool. You sure he is keeping that up? For example, you know what Klay shot in threes last year?40%. The year before. 44%. So he is going to shoot better than Klay?

Averaging 7 rebounds still doesn’t make him a good rebounder but when I said it he was 4, 5.3, 5.1 in three years. At that point, would you call that a good rebounder? Would you call 7 a good rebounder?

I didn’t get his appeal in fantasy considering where he had been drafted the past three years. Poor FT%, no threes, not great stocks, not great rebounding. Just scoring. Cool that you thought he was going to improve to be a 25.6 scorer with across the board improvements, but 11 games in doesn’t make my comments of 196 games of data insane nor does it really make you right yet.

 

Fair points. But what you are missing is probably not watching Ingram, all you have to do is watch the games and you can see he is special. Scores in every way imaginable and does what he wants. He has that ability where if he is on, just like KD, you can't guard him it doesn't matter what you try to do. Also his mid range fadeaway is so filthy like he prolly yells "KOBE" in his head when he does it. 

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49 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

And I gotta love the smaller sample size of this year versus years of Ingram that determined what I said before the season started.

If everything holds the whole season then yes he has improved and I would be wrong on him. No problem admitting that. But are they? Are you sure?

Is Zion playing yet? When he does, we will see if he still isn’t at the end of the day the third option. Why is it “OMG I can’t believe he said that” to think Jrue and Zion would be higher than him in the pecking order before the season started? #1 pick in Zion and the guy they called their best player in Jrue.

So Redick and Favors aren’t solid vets that should get touches? Favors has been dinged up and Redick is just now coming on. What is absurd about what I said regarding them?

62% FT his first year in the NBA. 68% his second year. 67.5% his third year. 196 games. Would you not call that a bad FT shooter up to that point? What was crazy about it? He shot in the 60s in college too. 74.6% in 11 games this year. Cool. Better but still not a good FT if he keeps that up.

29.4% three point his first year. 39% his second year. 33% his third year. 196 games. All on low volume for a reason. Is that not a bad three point shooter tho up to that point? Again, why is this crazy? He is shooting 45% on 5.5 attempts in 11 games. Cool. You sure he is keeping that up? For example, you know what Klay shot in threes last year?40%. The year before. 44%. So he is going to shoot better than Klay?

Averaging 7 rebounds still doesn’t make him a good rebounder but when I said it he was 4, 5.3, 5.1 in three years. At that point, would you call that a good rebounder? Would you call 7 a good rebounder?

I didn’t get his appeal in fantasy considering where he had been drafted the past three years. Poor FT%, no threes, not great stocks, not great rebounding. Just scoring. Cool that you thought he was going to improve to be a 25.6 scorer with across the board improvements, but 11 games in doesn’t make my comments of 196 games of data insane nor does it really make you right yet.

 

 

First of all, I appreciate the well structured post and detailed response! 

Ingram is a best scoring option on the team, even moreso than Holiday. He naturally has mismatches and knows how to get buckets. Holiday is a great 2nd option and can really get him the ball where he likes it. Zion wasn't even the first option on  Duke. His game style doesn't require him to initiate the offense, and yes you can dump down low to him, but I don't think that's what the Pelicans are going to stress with him. I believe Ingram will be the undisputed #1 option assuming everyone is healthy, and I think Zion's gravity on the floor will help Ingram even MORE. Little things like pick and rolls or dump passes will help Ingram maintain 4-5 assists per game, and even help his efficiency overall. I could be wrong tho, but that's my opinion on what will happen. 

Favors is an injury prone potato, who at BEST will be the 4th or 5th option. Reddick will be a key option because of his shooting ability, but he's not going to take anything away from Ingram. His spacing will help Ingram on 1vs1 plays, and his shooting could chip in for some easy assists. He shot the ball 14 times in 37 mins of action last night and scored 20+ pts. Ingram still balled out lol. I agree, he will get his touches, but he acts as an amplifier to BI, not a deterrent. 

BI has improved his shooting mechanics drastically over the last 2 years. I could be wrong, but I'm projecting an increase in FT. Passes the eye check. He's a legit 80% shooter and he will either surpass that or come close in the high 70s. 

There's no way BI is going to shoot 45%. He'll come down to like 35-37%, but I don't see the attempts going down. He'll hit close to 2 3's a game. His shooting has been on the uptick for the last 2 years, so I'm merely projecting an improvement based on the trend.

The only stat I see that could take a hit with Zion is rebounds. 7 is still good, and if he can maintain, then it's gravy. If he goes down to 5, it is what it is. 

Hey, I'm not discounting what Ingram was before. He was a scoring with empty stats guy and poor ratios. The last 2 years I have seen just drastic improvements in his game, and being able to predict what he's going to be before he becomes it, is one of the keys to Fantasy. Yeah sure, it's only been 11 games, but having watched him and his stats this year, I believe! Scores of players have had "dramatic" improvements to their games and it's never predicted if you look at his past stats, so just trying to stay ahead of the curve. 

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1 hour ago, richg24 said:

Fair points. But what you are missing is probably not watching Ingram, all you have to do is watch the games and you can see he is special.

 

Yes I have watched plenty of Ingram games his whole career. It isn’t like I called him a complete bum in reality. I was talking about the flaws in his fantasy game and that I did not get the appeal relative to where he had been drafted before. And I didn’t see him making this type of jump scoring wise on this team. And btw I wasn’t alone - look at his adp this year.

You feeling like he is special and feeling as if he is KD out there doesn’t negate the fact that he was for three years a horrible FT shooter, horrible three point shooter, not a good rebounder relative to his height and length, and provided minimal stocks. If you had the foresight to see him improving in all of those areas by this much, I applaud you because I sure didn’t.

Plenty of good players don’t translate to fantasy as well as others so his mid range scoring prowess had nothing to do with his other deficiencies. Right now, the stark improvements in these areas for these 11 games so far has made him a much much better fantasy option. All I am saying is let’s see if he keeps it up for a full season when the Pels are completely healthy and see if he doesn’t regress in areas he was deficient in.

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1 hour ago, Travis Burten said:

Scores of players have had "dramatic" improvements to their games and it's never predicted if you look at his past stats, so just trying to stay ahead of the curve. 

 

True, a lot of players have had jumps over the years so it’s not like I am guaranteeing his complete downfall. Ingram leads the team in shots so far with 18 a game. I know it was just preseason, but Zion led them in shots with 12 and Ingram was 3rd with 10.8 (2nd if you take NAW out but Holiday was real close at 10.5).

All of this obviously wasn’t on 30 minutes a night but he was not exactly doing what he is doing now in the preseason on this team when they were completely healthy so I still question what will happen when they are Also keeping in mind the obvious regression in three point shooting and more than likely FTs as well which have both already stated to happen. 50% on threes in October. 39.3% in November. 76.9 FT% in October. 73% in November.

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17 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

True, a lot of players have had jumps over the years so it’s not like I am guaranteeing his complete downfall. Ingram leads the team in shots so far with 18 a game. I know it was just preseason, but Zion led them in shots with 12 and Ingram was 3rd with 10.8 (2nd if you take NAW out but Holiday was real close at 10.5).

All of this obviously wasn’t on 30 minutes a night but he was not exactly doing what he is doing now in the preseason on this team when they were completely healthy so I still question what will happen when they are Also keeping in mind the obvious regression in three point shooting and more than likely FTs as well which have both already stated to happen. 50% on threes in October. 39.3% in November. 76.9 FT% in October. 73% in November.

Not only do I think he will not regress, I think he will keep improving as the season goes on. His confidence is bursting now, Zion won't affect this at all and anyone can see that Zion will have an early career Embiid season this year where he hardly plays, it's pretty obvious. Yes his 3pt% at 39 is realistic and of course 50% is not, and ya his ft% probably will be around 75%, which is meh but whatever it's not really a negative. The suns announcers (unbiased) last game kept stating the obvious as well, that Ingram is the best player on the team. 

I just don't agree with the approach of "lets see if he can keep it up" before fully believing in someone. Ingram had a weird trajectory I agree, he was being written off by a lot of people because he was expected to smash out of the gates like Durant did, but he was not in very good situations for his development and maybe he just needed a bit more time. Whatever the case, when you watch Ingram now it's like watching Luka and Trae, you don't need to see a bigger sample, it's clear they are stars. 

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growth isn't linear. he always had the talent and size and now got the opportunity to be "the" guy (don't think a healthy zion would affect him much.) this isn't a situation like you are spending a top 40-50 pick on someone like sga who hasn't shown he had "fantasy upside" you were  drafting a special player that was figuring things out around pick 100 with early rd upside if he did. to think a slight improvement of 8 % in ft was unlikely or doable doesn't make sense. its not like he cant/couldn't shoot. (did fix his shot from LAL)

 

seemed like a very easy buy strictly on adp and talent. don't see how anyone thought favors or redick would be anything more than supporting players. (favors adp was trash and made no sense especially with inj history)

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1 hour ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

True, a lot of players have had jumps over the years so it’s not like I am guaranteeing his complete downfall. Ingram leads the team in shots so far with 18 a game. I know it was just preseason, but Zion led them in shots with 12 and Ingram was 3rd with 10.8 (2nd if you take NAW out but Holiday was real close at 10.5).

All of this obviously wasn’t on 30 minutes a night but he was not exactly doing what he is doing now in the preseason on this team when they were completely healthy so I still question what will happen when they are Also keeping in mind the obvious regression in three point shooting and more than likely FTs as well which have both already stated to happen. 50% on threes in October. 39.3% in November. 76.9 FT% in October. 73% in November.

 All valid points. I just don't want to be in January realizing I should've made a move for Ingram, cuz thats when everyone dubs him as legit. A 5-10 game sample size is enough to see if he's a star or not. 

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on my trading block previously, now i think i have to keep him, just please stay healthy ROS.

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It's his team now. 

Zion will come back but Ingram will keep putting up top 40-50 numbers.

Taking that all day when I drafted him 101st.

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hes an elite scorer. can do everything scoring wise

I think the threes are here to stay and the only thing that would prevent him from top 25 value would be the stocks and ft% if he can hover around 1 and 1 with 75% ft then he should be a lock for 2nd/3rd rd value ROS with 1st rd upside 

 

outproducing Giannis 9 cat rank (bbm)

Edited by colepenhagen

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On 11/22/2019 at 12:38 PM, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

True, a lot of players have had jumps over the years so it’s not like I am guaranteeing his complete downfall. Ingram leads the team in shots so far with 18 a game. I know it was just preseason, but Zion led them in shots with 12 and Ingram was 3rd with 10.8 (2nd if you take NAW out but Holiday was real close at 10.5).

All of this obviously wasn’t on 30 minutes a night but he was not exactly doing what he is doing now in the preseason on this team when they were completely healthy so I still question what will happen when they are Also keeping in mind the obvious regression in three point shooting and more than likely FTs as well which have both already stated to happen. 50% on threes in October. 39.3% in November. 76.9 FT% in October. 73% in November.

There will be no regression in FT%. The 77.5% he's at now is consistent with his post-ASB rate last season and I actually expect it to continue trending toward 80%+. He's an elite scorer and great passer also with physicals that project him to become a more consistent stocks contributor in the future. His progression this season is par for the course.

Edited by samer42
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On 10/17/2019 at 9:55 PM, blob2004 said:

 

LOL ok it is safe to say he won't hit those FT numbers. You expect a Ingram to shoot 82% from the line even when he's never shot better than 68%? That's a huge difference.

He's only viable in punt FT.

 

Safe to say he will hit those FT numbers

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On 11/26/2019 at 12:49 AM, Travis Burten said:

 

Safe to say he will hit those FT numbers

 

Maybe you are right about the FT improvement but I have my doubts. I've seen Steven Adams hit 70-80% until all star break where he just crumpled afterwards and finished the season with 50%. I've also seen Deandre Jordan increase his FT to 70% for the whole season. Anything could happen, but it's too early to call.

I think he may finish around 75% max and that's already a huge improvement. Still defs not going to hit 82% though.

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2 hours ago, blob2004 said:

 

Maybe you are right about the FT improvement but I have my doubts. I've seen Steven Adams hit 70-80% until all star break where he just crumpled afterwards and finished the season with 50%. I've also seen Deandre Jordan increase his FT to 70% for the whole season. Anything could happen, but it's too early to call.

I think he may finish around 75% max and that's already a huge improvement. Still defs not going to hit 82% though.

 

Yeah you're right about anything can happen. Dude might start shooting 90%+ ROS, and end up with a mid to high 80's FT. 

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Even when can't make a shot goes 13/13 from ft line showing his huge improvement there again. 2 blocks 2 3s 10 rebs...imagine he even shot 40% fg this game ... monster

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1 hour ago, richg24 said:

Even when can't make a shot goes 13/13 from ft line showing his huge improvement there again. 2 blocks 2 3s 10 rebs...imagine he even shot 40% fg this game ... monster

Yea I think 80%+ is possible this season, also really close to 1/1/1

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Despite bad shooting a good performance overall. Absolut steal of the draft at position 113 for me ❤️

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