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jfazz23

Garrett Hampson 2020 Outlook

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Was a sleeper for many in 2019.  Overall not the best year.  only 15 SB in 300 at bats with a  687 OPS.  However, his last 30 days he popped 5 HRs, Stole 7 bases and had an OPS of 946.

 

  Was the end of the year for real? or just a September hoax? will he get 500 at bats next year?  is he a post hype sleeper?

 

He did drastically cut his k% down in September from 28,31,37% the previous 3 months, to 18.9%

Edited by jfazz23
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26 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

Was a sleeper for many in 2019.  Overall not the best year.  only 15 SB in 300 at bats with a  687 OPS.  However, his last 30 days he popped 5 HRs, Stole 7 bases and had an OPS of 946.

 

  Was the end of the year for real? or just a September hoax? will he get 500 at bats next year?  is he a post hype sleeper?

 

He did drastically cut his k% down in September from 28,31,37% the previous 3 months, to 18.9%

 

Totally worth the gamble. The question is... how late can you wait? I think the sample size was so small and so late in the year, he’ll fall relatively under the radar going into 2020 - even in today’s age of the internet ruining sleepers.

 

I would definitely take a shot... say past rd 14. Could be the highest profit all season

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2 hours ago, UberRebel said:

 

Totally worth the gamble. The question is... how late can you wait? I think the sample size was so small and so late in the year, he’ll fall relatively under the radar going into 2020 - even in today’s age of the internet ruining sleepers.

 

I would definitely take a shot... say past rd 14. Could be the highest profit all season

 

round 14? damn thats late.  i was thinking round 10 or slightly before

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5 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

round 14? damn thats late.  i was thinking round 10 or slightly before

His average ADP (fantasy pros) last season was 202. That’s like 16th round in 12 team league. He burned some guys this season. He ain’t jumping up 6 rounds.

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5 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

round 14? damn thats late.  i was thinking round 10 or slightly before

Depending on league type and number, rd.10 seems awfully ambitious and like a pretty big reach.  McMahon probably did more to earn a spot than Hampson did this year.  Brendan Rogers is the crown jewel, higher upside prospect than either of them and can’t be ignored.  The path to playing time simply isn’t there for him to be anything more than a later round lottery ticket, even if he is anointed the starting 2b before your draft (an unlikely scenario as is.)   October posts seldom age well however, so who knows?

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6 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

His average ADP (fantasy pros) last season was 202. That’s like 16th round in 12 team league. He burned some guys this season. He ain’t jumping up 6 rounds.

 

6 rounds / 70-80 picks sounds like a lot, once you get into the double digit rounds / triple digit picks, a "go get your guys" mentality sets in.  By that time you presumably have 6-7 bats and 3 or 4 arms to anchor your team.  With the emerging consensus that power is cheap (MLB unlikely to do anything significant to scale back the happy fun ball in 2020) and steals are precious (fewer players getting them, those that do often have major flaws in their game) I think the market is going to be very bullish on Hampson, particularly with how he finished the season.

Just looking at the names in the 10th/11th rounds in the #2EarlyMocks, I see guys like Brandon Woodruff, Trey Mancini, Kyle Tucker, Amed Rosario, and Jean Segura.  I totally got burned by Hampson this season and reaped none of the rewards when he finally showed some flashes of brilliance at the end of the season, but if those are the names I have to push him ahead of, that's not going to be a problem.  Hampson himself clocks in way back in the 250s  -- probably a reflection of the "won't get fooled again" effect you speak of -- but if he has a locked down starting job heading into 2020 (which he didn't heading into 2019) and a just a little bit of success in the spring, then he has all the makings of a guy who can easily jump into the 10th round as people try to find speed with power so they don't have to settle for a Mallex or Gordon type.

I know those mocks probably aren't a reflection of what the market will look like in the Spring, but it's the data we have right now.  I don't love Hampson's skill set, the Rockies organization can't be trusted with young players, there are very serviceable players and other upside gambles available in the 10th round... these are all true.  But 8/15 in just 327 PAs and the upside of playing in Coors is going to get people dreaming on what he could do in a full season.  Maybe 10th is aggressive, but if he's there in the 12th and is an everyday player?  Sign me up.

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2 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

Depending on league type and number, rd.10 seems awfully ambitious and like a pretty big reach.  McMahon probably did more to earn a spot than Hampson did this year.  Brendan Rogers is the crown jewel, higher upside prospect than either of them and can’t be ignored.  The path to playing time simply isn’t there for him to be anything more than a later round lottery ticket, even if he is anointed the starting 2b before your draft (an unlikely scenario as is.)   October posts seldom age well however, so who knows?

I see playing time being an issue only if he has a bad Spring Training.  It is true about Rogers, but he got hurt and disappeared, so I believe he has to really earn a shot at having a starting spot anywhere on the team going into next season.  I don't disagree with it in this case, but it is Colorado we are talking about.  They aren't going to just hand a starting role to a rookie unless they have no other option. They have multiple options, and for once they are solid ones.

If McMahon doesn't fall on his face in Spring Training, which is unlikely but still possible given he wasn't anything special this season, I can see Hampson being the starting CF with Dahl and Blackmon on the corners.  They also batted him 1st or 2nd for a lot of the final stretch of the season once he got hot, so there's at least some confidence in him there as well.

Obviously we will see come next season.

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I don’t know he had a lights out spring training this year and faced even less competition for playing time so there isn’t much he could do performance wise in next year’s ST to make me bullish.  The landscape would really need to shift vis a vis path to playing time, which will get even murkier after the Rockies sign Ben Zobrist this offseason.

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If Hampson was guaranteed everyday PT, I’d take him in the top 100. The combination of steals and Coors means he doesn’t have to be a good real-life player to be a really good roto player. He could put up Villar-like numbers without actually being all that great.

Playing time remains pretty murky though. Of course you’ve got McMahon and Rodgers at 2B. McMahon could slide to 1B but there’s still Murphy to deal with. Dahl and Blackmon are going to start in the OF, Hilliard and Tapia are also in the mix, and you can’t trust the Rockies to stop rolling out the ghost of Ian Desmond.

And something that’s easy to forget - the Colorado offense is bad. Desmond, Murphy, Hampson, Rodgers and Tapia all produced negative WAR this season. McMahon was only at 0.6 with regular PT. If this team wasn’t in Coors, it would be considered a fantasy dumpster fire. I don’t think we can rule out the Rockies looking for free agent help again.

I think Hampson will have some role with the team to start the season, and if he keeps hitting like he did in September he can probably force his way into a full-time job or close to it. But I’m not totally sold he can do that.

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I remember doing the Mock in December with some in this group, I think I got him around 10th or 11th round, and then in another one I did, he went earlier than I was willing to pay, maybe like 8th/9th round. 

* He burned some folks for sure, so that always has a bit of "pump the brakes"

* Colorado - the PT, the way they seem to jerk young players around or never really seem to give them a clear path to PT?  Seems the clearest path right now might be as an everyday OF moving forward, but some discussion Ive heard recently might have him in the Super-Util role?  

 

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Just traded for him in a league where steals dont even count for much.  In fairness to be a backup and I didn't pay a lot, but in leagues where steals count, I think he's worth a pick in the top 100 right now.  Playing time will be murky, but thats where the value is. We'll get a better idea in Spring, but the way he hit in the 2nd half got me excited. He has a lot of avenues to playing time and he's a good defender.

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Just traded for him in a league where steals dont even count for much.  In fairness to be a backup and I didn't pay a lot, but in leagues where steals count, I think he's worth a pick in the top 100 right now.  Playing time will be murky, but thats where the value is. We'll get a better idea in Spring, but the way he hit in the 2nd half got me excited. He has a lot of avenues to playing time and he's a good defender.

I know I've said this already about Hampson, but I don't think playing time is as big of an issue as most people think.  If Hampson has an awful Spring, then maybe, but otherwise CF is wide open for him, or he could play 2B if they move McMahon to 1B (if he has a good Spring too).

I'd consider CF the best avenue for a starting role at the moment though.  Rodgers is easily on the outside looking in at the moment for every position he could be used at since he hardly played last season.  We already all know how Colorado handles prospects, so it really doesn't matter how highly regarded he is, as he's yet to earn a starting role over others that have played significantly already.  If he has an amazing Spring, who knows, but at this very moment he shouldn't be considered an obstacle at all.

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