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Idoolittle

Pick 'em Week 6

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In order of most confident (1) to least confident (16).

Pick 'em
1. NYG @ NE
2. DAL @ NYJ
3. CIN @ BAL
4. PIT @ LAC
5. GB @ DET
6. NO @ JAX
7. SF @ LAR
8. SEA @ CLE
9. HOU @ KC
10. TEN @ DEN
11. PHI @ MIN
12. CAR @ TB
13. ATL @ ARZ
14. WAS @ MIA

Spread
1. NO +1.0 @ JAX - High bet
2. SEA -2.0 @ CLE - Medium bet
3. PHI +3.0 @ MIN - Medium bet
4. TEN +2.5 @ DEN - Medium bet
5. HOU @ KC -4.5 - Medium bet
6. DAL -7.5 @ NYJ - Medium bet
7. SF @ LAR -4.0 - Low bet
8. GB -4.5 @ DET - Low bet
9. CIN +11.0 @ BAL - Avoiding, but don't mind
10. CAR -2.0 @ TB - Avoiding, but don't mind
11. PIT +7.0 @ LAC - Avoiding, but don't mind
12. ATL @ ARZ +2.5 - Completely avoiding
13. WAS @ MIA +3.5 - Completely avoiding
14. NYG @ NE -17.0 - Completely avoiding

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New Orleans as 1 point favorites almost feels like a freebie ....

I think the patriots can get another blowout with how depleted the Giants are, especially if Barkley and wallman and Shepard are out...

If I can't decide I go with the team with the better defense

I think the Niners win In LA, better defense.

I think Houston can win cause they are much healthier, might even beat the spread, could just be a 3 point game.

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What does Vegas know that they're favoring Jax? 🤔

 

Btw, the gb game is in gb

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8 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

What does Vegas know that they're favoring Jax? 🤔

Btw, the gb game is in gb


My bad. Apparently I have a tendency to write the team I'm picking down first.

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52 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

What does Vegas know that they're favoring Jax? 🤔

 

Btw, the gb game is in gb

I want to know as well.....

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47 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

New Orleans as 1 point favorites almost feels like a freebie ....

I think the patriots can get another blowout with how depleted the Giants are, especially if Barkley and wallman and Shepard are out...

If I can't decide I go with the team with the better defense

I think the Niners win In LA, better defense.

I think Houston can win cause they are much healthier, might even beat the spread, could just be a 3 point game.


Yeah I don't really get the NO spread at all. My guess it's a combination of the game being in Jacksonville, NO still having Bridgewater under centre, JAX strong performance in a fairly tough schedule to start the season, and the Minshew hype. But NO is clearly the better team here. Jacksonville's definitely capable of an upset, but it would be an upset if they won.

I can't argue with the Pats comments either, other than I just don't like gambling on overdogs with a spread that large. NE "only" beat NYJ by 16 in week 3, in a game where Luke Falk had less than 100 passing yards and Lev Bell less than 60 total yards. NYG has no offense going into this week either and I do think the Pats will probably cover the spread, but I'd rather just avoid this.

For Niners and Rams, I get what you're saying, but I think this matchup works well for the Rams. The Rams secondary has been the biggest problem with their defense, but the Niners haven't been able to establish a strong passing game. I think the Rams will do better against the run than the Niners previous opponents.

For the Texans/Chiefs game, I just see this one being high scoring. So the -4.5 line doesn't feel as daunting. I just think KC is the better team and ends up winning by a TD.

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I also have this weird gut feeling about the BAL/CIN game. Not really sure what to think of either team right now. Baltimore's being treated like they're a top team, and although they have had their moments, I'm not sure they can consistently put up a high level performance. I've got the Ravens as my survivor pool pick for the week just given how awful Cincy has been so far, but I do think they're better than the Dolphins and Redskins of the world. Also not ruling out a blowup game from either of Dalton or Mixon. Not going to touch this game right now, but I could change my mind before the end of the week.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Brettg57 said:

Washington vs Miami should peak everyone's interest 😂

 

You have to take Washington, you just have to......

Edited by CABLE87

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3 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

 

You have to take Washington, you just have to......


in Miami I’m not. 

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3 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:


in Miami I’m not. 

 

Man ain't no one watching that poo a** team, they're selling tickets for $16 to the game....

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13 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

 

Man ain't no one watching that poo a** team, they're selling tickets for $16 to the game....

 

Man, id buy tickets to the battle of the suckbowl at that price.  Game of the year. 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Tghetty said:

 

Man, id buy tickets to the battle of the suckbowl at that price.  Game of the year. 

 

Im just saying man, he made it sound like it was a tough place to play at lmao

I think I would too at that price

Edited by CABLE87
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Darnold is back..could be a sneaky bet with NYJ +7.5 at home vs the boys. Smells reboundy.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

Darnold is back..could be a sneaky bet with NYJ +7.5 at home vs the boys. Smells reboundy.


Darnold being back is probably the reason why this line spread isn't larger. I do think he gives them a boost, but I still think the Jets O-line has issues that hurts this offense quite a bit. The Cowboys seem to be able to produce unless they're going up against a top D (which I don't think the Jets have), so I'm still liking Dallas -7.5.

Edited by Idoolittle
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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, CABLE87 said:

 

Im just saying man, he made it sound like it was a tough place to play at lmao

I think I would too at that price


I think he was more so just getting at that both teams are awful, so he's going with the home team in this one (which is common for people to do in close matchups). As shown above I picked the Redskins in the pick 'em and Dolphins with the points, which essentially means they're both so awful that I don't really know which one is worse until they play each other.

Edited by Idoolittle

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Just going to point out that one of the Redskins or Dolphins is going to have more wins this week than either the Chiefs or Texans.

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Strictly survivor pools.

 

Does anybody believe in Washington over Miami(when else would we pick them)? What about Arizona upsetting Atlanta? Safe bets are, Chargers over Pittsburgh, Dallas over NY Jets. As of now I am settling on Chargers. 

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7 minutes ago, Brettg57 said:

Strictly survivor pools.

 

Does anybody believe in Washington over Miami(when else would we pick them)? What about Arizona upsetting Atlanta? Safe bets are, Chargers over Pittsburgh, Dallas over NY Jets. As of now I am settling on Chargers. 


I think I’d avoid the Redskins/Dolphins game. I get what you’re saying, but I’m not confident enough to say the Redskins are definitely the better team where their QB situation is up in the air. I think you can just avoid picking either of these teams all season.

 

I’d also avoid picking the Cardinals. If you’re going to pick them, I think next week when they play the Giants would be the better pick. But I’d go with a safe bet for this week. 

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25 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:


I think I’d avoid the Redskins/Dolphins game. I get what you’re saying, but I’m not confident enough to say the Redskins are definitely the better team where their QB situation is up in the air. I think you can just avoid picking either of these teams all season.

 

I’d also avoid picking the Cardinals. If you’re going to pick them, I think next week when they play the Giants would be the better pick. But I’d go with 

Arizona next week with Barkley potentially returning, I'd rather avoid. I don't want to pick Washington at all but could get a leg up using them now. 

 

How do you feel about Chargers or New Orleans? 

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9 hours ago, Brettg57 said:

Arizona next week with Barkley potentially returning, I'd rather avoid. I don't want to pick Washington at all but could get a leg up using them now. 

 

How do you feel about Chargers or New Orleans? 


Yeah I guess I see Atlanta as a better team than NYG (with Barkley), so if I were to pick one game to play Arizona in this year that'd be the one.

I'd be okay with Chargers vs Pittsburgh. Looks like Hodges is going to be under centre for the Steelers. Probably the best spot to use the Chargers this season if they weren't used against Miami. I'm not really of going with NO this week though. As shown above, the odds actually favor Jacksonville in this one (it's actually at NO +2.5 now). I still think the Saints are the better team and will win this one, but to me this is an unnecessary gamble in a survivor league. Wait until Brees is back and play them in a more favourable matchup later in the season.

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On 10/8/2019 at 8:42 PM, Members_Only_76 said:


in Miami I’m not. 

I have Mia winning outright. And if Haskins gets in there a Mia blowout.

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On 10/8/2019 at 5:58 PM, Idoolittle said:

In order of most confident (1) to least confident (16).

Pick 'em
1. NYG @ NE
2. DAL @ NYJ
3. CIN @ BAL
4. PIT @ LAC
5. GB @ DET
6. NO @ JAX
7. SF @ LAR
8. SEA @ CLE
9. HOU @ KC
10. TEN @ DEN
11. PHI @ MIN
12. CAR @ TB
13. ATL @ ARZ
14. WAS @ MIA

Spread
1. NO +1.0 @ JAX - High bet
2. SEA -2.0 @ CLE - Medium bet
3. PHI +3.0 @ MIN - Medium bet
4. TEN +2.5 @ DEN - Medium bet
5. HOU @ KC -4.5 - Medium bet
6. DAL -7.5 @ NYJ - Medium bet
7. SF @ LAR -4.0 - Low bet
8. GB -4.5 @ DET - Low bet
9. CIN +11.0 @ BAL - Avoiding, but don't mind
10. CAR -2.0 @ TB - Avoiding, but don't mind
11. PIT +7.0 @ LAC - Avoiding, but don't mind
12. ATL @ ARZ +2.5 - Completely avoiding
13. WAS @ MIA +3.5 - Completely avoiding
14. NYG @ NE -17.0 - Completely avoiding

 

I agree w/ your picks mostly w/ these exceptions:

- HOU over KC. KC Def is trash and Watson is rolling.  Chiefs have injuries on both OL/DL and if Hill and Watkins are out, and Mahomes is on that gimpy ankle, it's gonna be hard for them to keep up.

- JAX over NO.  Minsew/Chark/Fournette are rolling and Ramsey might lock down MT.  Kamara was downgraded Friday.  Teddy is playing over his head.

- MIN over PHI.  Philly is down their top 3 CBs so Thelin/Diggs should be open enough for s---y Cousins to hit them.  This is gonna open things up for Cook.  

 

Edited by ragrag

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