Sign in to follow this  
brockpapersizer

Mitch Keller 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

 

Will start out this thread with these excellent tweets on why you should be interested in Mitch Keller next year.  There's a chance he could be this year's Nick Pivetta and be a drain, especially if you have to reach to get him, but there's a chance he goes late and has some real profit potential.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A .475 .babip??? Thats absurd! Sonis the 60% lob.  Thanks for the post, this at least raises an eyebrow for me.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When I see a BABIP that insanely high, first thing I do is check batted ball and Statcast data. Sometimes it’s bad luck, sometimes a guy just gives up rocket line drives constantly.

In Keller’s case it’s bad luck. 35.3% hard hit rate and 87.2 average exit velo aren’t bad. 28.7% line drive rate is a little high but not crazy. His xwOBA of .307 is good and well below his .397 actual wOBA.

I’m definitely interested in buying.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah great post. Could be a very late draftee that could be a regular starter in leagues that start 4-5 SP.  I like. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there any speculation who Pittsburgh is looking at for their next pitching coach? The peripherals all look lovely, but I'm a touch hesitant to dive in on any arms from this organization until I'm seeing some signs they're embracing the modern era.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's in a similar position Shane Bieber was this time last year. An excellent slider + curve ball that flashes potential, but lacks consistently. Both got pounded as rookies as their effectiveness was dependent on sliders mostly. Making them predictable and FIP darlings

Difference? Bieber held his own vs rightes due to better FB command. His step forward was in being more effective vs LHH. Keller was just all over the place with worse command/control. What Keller doesn't have in Biebers command/control is a better fastball. It's harder with more whiff ability.

We don't much about how good the new pirates pitching coaches will be(or who). So its a straight gamble..but the upside all there with that 3 pitch mix of his.

Edited by Slatykamora
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Is there any speculation who Pittsburgh is looking at for their next pitching coach? The peripherals all look lovely, but I'm a touch hesitant to dive in on any arms from this organization until I'm seeing some signs they're embracing the modern era.

Any thoughts what happened here with regards to the organization and Searage?  For several years, the narrative is that this guy was the pitcher whisperer as he seemed to be credited with getting guys on track but the last couple of years some guys I think people were excited about going to Pittsburgh under his tutelage like Archer or even Ivan Nova pretty much flopped meanwhile guys who have left Pittsburgh recently Cole, Morton, Glasnow - seem to be flourishing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Any thoughts what happened here with regards to the organization and Searage?  For several years, the narrative is that this guy was the pitcher whisperer as he seemed to be credited with getting guys on track but the last couple of years some guys I think people were excited about going to Pittsburgh under his tutelage like Archer or even Ivan Nova pretty much flopped meanwhile guys who have left Pittsburgh recently Cole, Morton, Glasnow - seem to be flourishing. 

Searage’s philosophy was pounding the zone with two-seamers and sinkers to get soft contact. The flyball/launch-angle revolution made that a bad idea.

Searage isn’t dumb - he knows what’s going on and has adapted his approach, and I’ve seen several articles where he gets annoyed at the idea he’s still a “pitch to contact” guy. But that means he’s not teaching the things he taught better than anyone else.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, dilly3307 said:

I have nothing against Searage but I'm curious to know what pitchers he worked his magic on?

 

Aj Burnet and liriano were the two off the top of my head that I remember him extending and reinvigoating  their careers 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any coincidence that Russ Martin was kicking around in 2013/2014. Similar time frame to Burnett, Liriano, and Volquez.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.