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Highlander23

Winning Teams Without The Big 5 In Roto

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The consensus this year seems to be there are a "big 5".  In other years, the number may change slightly, but there are always those small handful of guys that are a head or so above the rest.  I always wonder how many league winners there are that don't have one of those big guys.  Does it mostly happen when one or more of those top guys gets hurt?  What have the teams you've seen win without a Harden/Curry/Durant/Towns/Giannis/Davis, etc been like?  How likely is it for a well-drafted team that gets Beal, Irving, Lillard, Embiid, etc as their 1st pick to be able to win it in a fairly competitive league?  Which of the top guys, historically, does it seem like gives a team the best chance at winning?  Thought it might be an interesting discussion with so many drafts coming up this weekend and lots of us ending up with picks in that bottom half.

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I say only one thing: I don't think first pick has too much impact who has winning team or not. I mean there is impact, but it is less than you think.

Edited by apatas

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I won my league last year drafting Steph at 7. So it is certainly possible but requires more meticulous planning (selecting undervalued players in the mid-late rounds, staying active on the waiver wire, and making shrewd trades). Your margin of error and freedom to take your foot off the gas are much lower. With the amount of injuries this year (KD, Boogie, John Wall, Klay etc), picking in the bottom of the 1st is less ideal than usual. But those injuries open doors for young players to prove their worth, and picking them for great value gives you an opportunity to win

I accidentally autodrafted one of my leagues this year (ironically ended up with Steph again at 4) and I'm picking 12th in my main league this week. 

Edited by justaguy
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My main hoops league typically has the previous season's winners drafting last. I've won that league countless times, and can assure you, it's pretty awesome drafting from the hook (last pick, first round). In fact, I generally prefer to draft from 11 or 12 in a 12 teamer than get a middle of the round pick. It simplifies your decision making, where you're not going to let a guy you want go because he surely won't come back to you, whereas drafting from the middle that's a bigger temptation.

You need to have a good eye for when to draft injured players/load management guys like Leonard, PG13, Kyrie, etc. You can often start position or category runs by taking two guys of the same archetype. There is no doubt that you need to recoup some of the value lost from drafting outside of the "top tier of the top tier" but if you're diligent and prepared, it's definitely feasible.

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21 minutes ago, Highlander23 said:

The consensus this year seems to be there are a "big 5".  In other years, the number may change slightly, but there are always those small handful of guys that are a head or so above the rest.  I always wonder how many league winners there are that don't have one of those big guys.  Does it mostly happen when one or more of those top guys gets hurt?  What have the teams you've seen win without a Harden/Curry/Durant/Towns/Giannis/Davis, etc been like?  How likely is it for a well-drafted team that gets Beal, Irving, Lillard, Embiid, etc as their 1st pick to be able to win it in a fairly competitive league?  Which of the top guys, historically, does it seem like gives a team the best chance at winning?  Thought it might be an interesting discussion with so many drafts coming up this weekend and lots of us ending up with picks in that bottom half.

 

I think not having one of those 5 forces you to gamble a little bit more on upside with the rest of your picks to make up the ground.

It can be done, but you may have to pass on safer picks like Conley/LMA/Horford/Harris/Griffin/Derozen who probably arent going to beat their ADP by much. For younger guys you personally think could take a big next step this season Markkanen/Russell/Fox/Tatum/etc..and then hope they do.

 

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2 hours ago, justaguy said:

I won my league last year drafting Steph at 7. So it is certainly possible but requires more meticulous planning (selecting undervalued players in the mid-late rounds, staying active on the waiver wire, and making shrewd trades). Your margin of error and freedom to take your foot off the gas are much lower. With the amount of injuries this year (KD, Boogie, John Wall, Klay etc), picking in the bottom of the 1st is less ideal than usual. But those injuries open doors for young players to prove their worth, and picking them for great value gives you an opportunity to win

I accidentally autodrafted one of my leagues this year (ironically ended up with Steph again at 4) and I'm picking 12th in my main league this week. 

I see Steph as a top guy.....can't usually get him in the 7th (although I guess last year you could).

 

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2 hours ago, rando said:

My main hoops league typically has the previous season's winners drafting last. I've won that league countless times, and can assure you, it's pretty awesome drafting from the hook (last pick, first round). In fact, I generally prefer to draft from 11 or 12 in a 12 teamer than get a middle of the round pick. It simplifies your decision making, where you're not going to let a guy you want go because he surely won't come back to you, whereas drafting from the middle that's a bigger temptation.

You need to have a good eye for when to draft injured players/load management guys like Leonard, PG13, Kyrie, etc. You can often start position or category runs by taking two guys of the same archetype. There is no doubt that you need to recoup some of the value lost from drafting outside of the "top tier of the top tier" but if you're diligent and prepared, it's definitely feasible.

I've always liked "the turn" as well.  

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39 minutes ago, Highlander23 said:

I see Steph as a top guy.....can't usually get him in the 7th (although I guess last year you could).

 

Yeah last year Lebron and KD were taken ahead of him not infrequently (keep in mind he was sharing shots with Klay and KD while lebron was a solo act). This year is a much different story and Steph is unquestionably a top 5 pick (top 3 imo)

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If you're getting Harden / AD / or KAT you're already miles ahead of everyone else...from pick 8 onward I would gamble on Embiid or Kawhi, but Embiid seems to get you all those goodies that are similar to KAT, just not as good and he won't come close to him in totals...I think he's primed for a career year tho and I think could be the one pick outside of the top 7 that can win you title or at least keep up somewhat...maybe if I were at the turn at 12 I would consider Lebron / Drummond punt FT (which I did in a small money roto league this year), and you could theoretically try and scoop up other punt FT bigs later that might fall i.e. Adams, Whiteside...  

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I’m assuming you mean snake draft because in auction you can build any sort of team and win, as long as it’s good.  Whereas, I’ve rarely seen the stars n scrubs team win the title because they aren’t deep enough.  So I’d say the majority of the time in auction someone without a top 5 player wins. 

 

If its snake all you can do is put out the best team possible.  Draft BPA first and in the second pick someone who compliments the first pick without sacrificing what the first was good add.  Input your team in BBM.  If you can shore up a weakness then do it but if you can’t maybe considering punting.  The basics. 

 

The best way you can beat teams with counting stats superiority is by being an efficient team. The second is by punting.  You might not be able to get a top five player but everyone gets to have an efficient team, if they build properly.  Ofc drafting in the back half often entails a punt team.  If you’re able to get something like LeBron at 11 and Drummond at 14 you have a great start at FG, Reb, stocks, assists, and points.  You’re not really at a disadvantage in anything other than threes and FT.  You can punt one cat in roto, you just can’t punt multiple cats.  

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Jokic in 9 Cat Roto is definitely top 5..  he is above average in just about every category.  Stud and easy build around in roto at least.

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in one of the league i was in, there is one guy who always in the finals (and also won the championship) just by adding and dropping players.

and he usually is at 14th to last pick in a 16 team league

i think its about scouting for players(with a bit of a luck), right before the games start. 

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Maybe is off topic, but I consider the inversion of the snake after round 2 a simple and effective way to (at least try to) compensate the first picks advantage. 

We have been playing in that way for years, and I could say it evens the field limiting the luck factor.

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1 hour ago, OSH said:

Maybe is off topic, but I consider the inversion of the snake after round 2 a simple and effective way to (at least try to) compensate the first picks advantage. 

We have been playing in that way for years, and I could say it evens the field limiting the luck factor.

 

The simplest and most effective way to limit luck is to switch to an auction format.

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I think the worst picks this year are 7-9. After 9, your choices start to become easier (as far as first round goes), and then you get your pick of the litter for the second round, where the guys are basically as good as the end of the first. 

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Just now, Tom Chambers said:

I think the worst picks this year are 7-9. After 9, your choices start to become easier (as far as first round goes), and then you get your pick of the litter for the second round, where the guys are basically as good as the end of the first. 

From best to worst I’d rank them: 5,4,3,2,1 (top five picks are the best and I’d rather have a later one bc they’re all pretty close this year); 6,7 (guaranteed a good player); 12 (i like to be in the turn if I have a late pick) 8,9,10,11.  11 being the worst bc it’s a s--- pick and you don’t even have the benefit of being at the turn.  You could pick a punt FT guy under the presumption that another one will make it back and just get sniped by the 12/13 guy.  

 

I liked my drafts from the 1st and 6th positions. My 8th pick sucked and I functionally traded it away after the draft.  I also traded my 10th away in a league with pick trading.  Now I’m drafting 11th.

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8 minutes ago, Purple Hippo said:

 

The simplest and most effective way to limit luck is to switch to an auction format.

Ok, I try again: "I could say it evens the field limiting the luck factor in snake draft".

Of course I agree about auction.

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