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Is fantasy football getting more and more luck based?

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I don't have concrete evidence of this either but I have found myself thinking the same thing. I remember when I first started playing FF around '09 it seemed like there were far more players that were consistent week-to-week in production. I remember having at least a handful of players on my teams that all had stable floors of 8-10 points and you could bank on it. Now you see guys like Evans go 37 points one week, 0 the next and without an injury. 

 

I realize this could just be my perception and I could be way off but I agree that it seems like fantasy production has been more volatile than ever.

 

I think if it is true, it could be due to injuries being more frequent like the OP mentioned but perhaps also teams are more willing to adjust game plans game to game instead of strictly funneling targets/touches to certain players.

 

 

Edited by sportsfreak2744
expanding

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50% luck

25% skill

25% trying and managing your team

Or something like that

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Injuries? Just wait until they implement the 17 game schedule...

 

One other thing is that with the head to head format, the best fantasy team/manager doesnt always win. Its about who you play at the right time.

Edited by Evincar
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think this might be my last year, it's just too much of a crapshoot. when a lineup of Watson/Hopkins/Julio/Kamara gives me the low score of the week, f--- this.

meanwhile, the dude who drafted Gurley #2 overall is 8-3. i'm over it.

Edited by axiom20XX
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Also there's smaller and smaller incremental rewards for doing extra research.

Everything is out there and pretty easy to find for anyone now.  

So maybe it's just that the playing field is now so level that luck has become the deciding factor.

 

 

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It's a game that has always been heavily, heavily luck-based. I don't think it has gotten moreso due to RBBC. If anything that would provide an opportunity for research to pay off vs everyone drafting 2 workhorse RBs and then sitting back and hoping for the best

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100% luck.

  • Injuries are up
  • Concussion protocol
  • Coaches who play head games now with injury reports
  • Spread offenses
  • TE wasteland
  • Committee backfields
  • Unpredictable D/STs
  • Unpredictable kickers
  • The list goes on...
Edited by FitzMagic
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10 minutes ago, cbsholy said:

I generally agree, and as someone who used to love fantasy in high school and college, I can say it's becoming less fun and more of a time-suck and more stressful. Theres also definitely a certain point of diminishing returns on the amount of research done. Maybe I'm only speaking for myself, but its becoming a lot less fun than it used to be. This is especially true when a few guys in your league act like they genuinely think they are geniuses when they benefitted from something so outlandishly lucky that itd have to happen for/against you for you to believe it. 

I do agree though that it seems to have gotten even more luck dependent. I also noticed that the first handful of years that I played fantasy, I focused mainly on stats. I won most of my leagues. After starting actually watching the games more, I actually got progressively worse at fantasy. 

Not sure if I went off on a tangent but this is just my 2 cents. I was close to quitting before this season because I couldnt take the bad luck and everything surrounding it but my league couldn't find a replacement as the season drew closer, so I said meh what the hell I'll give it another go.

Being an adult with a full time job and actual responsibilities, instead of a young adult, I feel like I'm choosing to torture myself by playing at this point. I'm one of those guys who cant play fantasy just for fun, I'm too competitive. When I get screwed because of bad luck it pisses me off. I can't be one of those guys who pays the buy in and sets a lineup once a week and lives with the results. I'm on top of everything, sometimes too much, and some amazingly bad breaks always seem to happen to screw you over or help someone you're against. I'd honestly say most of the reason I play fantasy is to maintain relationships with friends and such. But the time commitment and stress as someone who's too competitive to play simply for fun is getting to be too much. 

 

This sums up a lot of it for me.

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It's a weekly game where one unpredictable short term injury causing a player to miss one game can derail what, on a level playing field, would amount to a 1/10 or 1/12 chance at being satisfied with the results, and basically everyone gets injured at some point because it's friggin violent.

It's basically like getting pissed at ourselves because Red 26 doesn't come up every single time in a sequence of particular spins.

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4 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Also there's smaller and smaller incremental rewards for doing extra research.

Everything is out there and pretty easy to find for anyone now.  

So maybe it's just that the playing field is now so level that luck has become the deciding factor.

 

 

This is what has ruined it for me. I used to put a lot of time into finding blurbs and doing my own research. But now any and all information can be sent right to your phone. Makes my job easier but it does so for Bob from accounting as well, so that's taken away some of the satisfaction for me. I'm more mad at myself that I didn't peddle my services for money before everything went mainstream

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In real-life teams get lucky breaks all the time (missed calls, dropped passes by other team, miscommunication by other team). You can say a lot of things are luck based.

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It's all luck because Fantasy Football is a game based on a game that we have no control over. We put a line up in on who we think is the best players, but we don't have any control on how they play or how much they play or what situations they are put in. That is either the player themselves or the coaches. So basically we are just guessing and hoping for the best. 

Edited by SmileyFace8
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85% Luck

5% Research/Updates

10% Having a short memory

 

The NFL, and by extension fantasy football, is a week-to-week carousel.

So much can, and will, change from one week to the next week. The amount of turnover and change is what keeps things interesting, and also maddening.

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13 minutes ago, aapox said:

50% luck

25% skill

25% trying and managing your team

Or something like that

 

Agree with this, maybe 40/30/30 for me. but I cant agree with anyone that says 100% luck. 

In my longest running league (8 years)  there are 4 owners that have made the playoffs 80%+ over the years, that shows me that "skill" is a big factor.  I guess i wouldn't call it "skill" i think those that put in more effort are generally going to do better over a larger sample size.  

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Outside of random injuries to any given player, it has not been more luck for me. I actual improve every season with my process and i make better selections during the draft, I make better waiver pickups and have stronger roster management than before. I focus more on coaches, offensive schemes injury reports/IR and o-lines. 

I definitely outperform the casual player who reads a rotoworld blurb because i focus on signals vs the noise. I notice when teams is making changes during the season to player utilization.

it can be a simple move as letting someone pay up for Mahommes and i grab Kyler and lamar cheap or I grab more starting wr's while the league grabs heavy rb.

Learn how to zig when others zag.  

The key is how you manage daily information and apply it to the roster and waiver during the season.

People who claim it is more luck than knowledge are probably not evolving their process. 

Edited by dashoe
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I have believed this for years it doesn’t matter whether you play football, baseball or basketball if you are playing head to head (H2H) it is 100% luck. On reddit a couple of years ago there was a thread specifically about how lucky things can get when you play head to head. He brought up players who scored a ton of points one week the week before those same players were absolutely dreadful. 

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8 minutes ago, SmileyFace8 said:

It's all luck because Fantasy Football is a game based on a game that we have no control over. We put a line up in on who we think is the best players, but we don't have any control on how they play or how much they play or what situations they are put in. That is either the player themselves or the coaches. So basically we are just guessing and hoping for the best. 

 

It would only be all luck if you play in a best ball league IMO.  Yes, if you go up against that top scoring team each week that's unlucky but you have to make decisions over a 16 week period, that's a ton of variables that show the "skill" of a fantasy owner.  

Planning, sit/start, trades, waivers, budgeting (fab), research ect. are all skill-sets that an owner can be evaluated on.   

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I think the stronger determinant to outcomes for many is WHEN your league drafts. Do you draft 2months before week1 or do you draft the day before the 1st game of the season, I  drafted 2months before once and i lost 3 starting players before week1 rb-rb-wr. i couldnt recover from that struggled al season to make adjustments, hdad players I couldnt trade and missed the playoffs by 1 win.

Edited by dashoe

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1 minute ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

Agree with this, maybe 40/30/30 for me. but I cant agree with anyone that says 100% luck. 

In my longest running league (8 years)  there are 4 owners that have made the playoffs 80%+ over the years, that shows me that "skill" is a big factor.  I guess i wouldn't call it "skill" i think those that put in more effort are generally going to do better over a larger sample size.  

You are correct, but that's likely just being luckier than others. This is by far the worst season I've ever had in any fantasy game. And I put the same amount of time into it because I'm very competitive. For example, I'm 4-6, going on 4-7, and have the 4th most points, while in 7th place. A team that is terrible and doesn't do much of anything is 3-7, second from last in standings, and dead last in points in a 10-teamer.

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