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Is fantasy football getting more and more luck based?

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Shameless brag, but I'm #1 in points scored in 5 out of my 7 leagues. If you call that luck, fight me.

My records in those leagues? 9-2, 9-2, 7-4, 6-5, 5-6. Looking at those records you can't help but think the H2H format creates some lucky/unlucky weeks for people, because no way should the top points scorer be 6-5 or 5-6. 

But to say the game is all luck is completely false, and probably being spouted by some bitter fantasy players that haven't experienced much success.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, GriffeySwag said:

Shameless brag, but I'm #1 in points scored in 5 out of my 7 leagues. If you call that luck, fight me.

My records in those leagues? 9-2, 9-2, 7-4, 6-5, 5-6. Looking at those records you can't help but think the H2H format creates some lucky/unlucky weeks for people, because no way should the top points scorer be 6-5 or 5-6. 

But to say the game is all luck is completely false, and probably being spouted by some bitter fantasy players that haven't experienced much success.

 

 

I agree with this like 95%. You can skillfully draft/make a good team, you can lose in very unlucky ways. A few years ago I lead the league in points and only had 5 wins. The next season, I went 13-0 steamrolling my league, a guy in the other division snuck in at 7-6 and tore me to shreds in the playoffs (ala David Johnson rookie season). 

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The worst thing is players getting injured mid game. It’s cost me 2 games this year in one of my leagues which is huge. I think I’ve had a player exit before half time like 5-7 times. 

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On 11/18/2019 at 3:46 PM, owenmills said:

It's a game that has always been heavily, heavily luck-based. I don't think it has gotten moreso due to RBBC. If anything that would provide an opportunity for research to pay off vs everyone drafting 2 workhorse RBs and then sitting back and hoping for the best

 

The problem with RBBC is, how many touches will McCoy or Williams get?  How many touches will Gore or Singletary get?  Barber or RoJo?  There is just no predicting this stuff with research.  Even when one back is clearly better than the other, you get this stupid RBBC.  I think the carries get divvied up based on the whims of these coaches during the game.  They probably don't even know what they are going to do until the game is happening, which sucks.

The you have CMC, and that's the other end of the spectrum.  They are stupid for wearing him out for no reason, but this is what a team should do with it's best players.  Play them.  Just don't run them into the ground like the Panthers are doing with him.

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How about this.  Simple enough question, if you're a person who believes that you've got the right skills, shouldn't be a problem.

Stefon Diggs plays four more games this year.

Week 13 - @ Sea

Week 14 - Det

Week 15 - @ LAC

Week 16 - GB

Which of these four games, if any, does he finish in the top 12 WRs in .5 PPR?

Just put it out there.  We have the data, the team surroundings, the opposing defense info, the weather should be fairly predictable.

If you feel like luck isn't a factor than you should be able to make this prediction fairly accurately.

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9 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

How about this.  Simple enough question, if you're a person who believes that you've got the right skills, shouldn't be a problem.

Stefon Diggs plays four more games this year.

Week 13 - @ Sea

Week 14 - Det

Week 15 - @ LAC

Week 16 - GB

Which of these four games, if any, does he finish in the top 12 WRs in .5 PPR?

Just put it out there.  We have the data, the team surroundings, the opposing defense info, the weather should be fairly predictable.

If you feel like luck isn't a factor than you should be able to make this prediction fairly accurately.

Assuming no Thielen, yes, no, no, yes. Against Det and LAC they will be able to run all game and win. Against Sea and GB they will need to score. 

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14 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

How about this.  Simple enough question, if you're a person who believes that you've got the right skills, shouldn't be a problem.

Stefon Diggs plays four more games this year.

Week 13 - @ Sea

Week 14 - Det

Week 15 - @ LAC

Week 16 - GB

Which of these four games, if any, does he finish in the top 12 WRs in .5 PPR?

Just put it out there.  We have the data, the team surroundings, the opposing defense info, the weather should be fairly predictable.

If you feel like luck isn't a factor than you should be able to make this prediction fairly accurately.

Your exercise does nothing to prove or disprove that luck exists in fantasy football. Fantasy isn't about accurately predicting one player's performance. It's about putting together a TEAM full of players who you think will get you the most points. 

 

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100% luck...I have 2nd highest points for and I am 6-5. Division leader has scored almost 300 points less than me and has a -2 point difference yet is 8-3.

 

everything is so random and unpredictable and then there are injuries

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2 minutes ago, GriffeySwag said:

Your exercise does nothing to prove or disprove that luck exists in fantasy football. Fantasy isn't about accurately predicting one player's performance. It's about putting together a TEAM full of players who you think will get you the most points. 

 

How do you do that?

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5 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

How about this.  Simple enough question, if you're a person who believes that you've got the right skills, shouldn't be a problem.

Stefon Diggs plays four more games this year.

Week 13 - @ Sea

Week 14 - Det

Week 15 - @ LAC

Week 16 - GB

Which of these four games, if any, does he finish in the top 12 WRs in .5 PPR?

Just put it out there.  We have the data, the team surroundings, the opposing defense info, the weather should be fairly predictable.

If you feel like luck isn't a factor than you should be able to make this prediction fairly accurately.

one player or game doesn't matter. one big game from ur other 2 wr or rb or qb or te or def or kicker could pick up the slack.

don't see how knowing when a player will hit and have a wr1 type week has anything to do with being good at fantasy football. people that are consistently winning aren't lucky they know how to draft, trade, and find value. people stashing hunter henry when he was dropped. people trading cooper kupp for nuk Hopkins when kupp was on fire. when everyone is taking qbs early in 2 qb league, qb friendly scoring. you wait and get allen and Stafford in the 7th and 8th rd.

sure theres some luck involved but when ur rolling out stacked teams because you drafted good and make good trade that eliminates some of the luck

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1 hour ago, GriffeySwag said:

Shameless brag, but I'm #1 in points scored in 5 out of my 7 leagues. If you call that luck, fight me.

My records in those leagues? 9-2, 9-2, 7-4, 6-5, 5-6. Looking at those records you can't help but think the H2H format creates some lucky/unlucky weeks for people, because no way should the top points scorer be 6-5 or 5-6. 

But to say the game is all luck is completely false, and probably being spouted by some bitter fantasy players that haven't experienced much success.

 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

100% luck...I have 2nd highest points for and I am 6-5. Division leader has scored almost 300 points less than me and has a -2 point difference yet is 8-3.

 

everything is so random and unpredictable and then there are injuries

 

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2 years ago, I drafted poorly and had an injury ravaged team.  I sucked, and FF success was clearly just dependent on luck.

This year I'm doing very well in both of my leagues, so I think we can all agree FF has evolved into a 100% skill-based game.

 

...What?

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4 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

one player or game doesn't matter. one big game from ur other 2 wr or rb or qb or te or def or kicker could pick up the slack.

don't see how knowing when a player will hit and have a wr1 type week has anything to do with being good at fantasy football. people that are consistently winning aren't lucky they know how to draft, trade, and find value. people stashing hunter henry when he was dropped. people trading cooper kupp for nuk Hopkins when kupp was on fire. when everyone is taking qbs early in 2 qb league, qb friendly scoring. you wait and get allen and Stafford in the 7th and 8th rd.

sure theres some luck involved but when ur rolling out stacked teams because you drafted good and make good trade that eliminates some of the luck

The line itself is arbitrary, I'll admit, but it's a harbinger of what "skill" people are professing to have - namely, accurately predicting when players will perform well in advance of games.

So yeah, I think it matters.

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20 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

How about this.  Simple enough question, if you're a person who believes that you've got the right skills, shouldn't be a problem.

Stefon Diggs plays four more games this year.

Week 13 - @ Sea

Week 14 - Det

Week 15 - @ LAC

Week 16 - GB

Which of these four games, if any, does he finish in the top 12 WRs in .5 PPR?

Just put it out there.  We have the data, the team surroundings, the opposing defense info, the weather should be fairly predictable.

If you feel like luck isn't a factor than you should be able to make this prediction fairly accurately.

 

The skill was in drafting Diggs in the first place, knowing he’d be a high-variance asset, and pairing him with a more stable WR. In my draft, I took Diggs after AB and before Cooks, both of whom I had avoided like the plague in every mock draft. I haven’t benched Diggs all season, but I’m still heading to the playoffs — not because of luck, but because I tended to flex higher upside assets when Diggs was at risk of a floor game.

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I've been guilty of digressing myself, but we should probably get back to the original question - is there more luck involved in FF than there used to be?

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People take way too much stock into this luck thing. As fantasy owners we have to remember that our weekly lineups aren't calculus exams where each question will have a definitive answer. No matter how much we research or how much we watch games or whatever VBD and formula based strategies that we use, there will never be one answer in fantasy football.  We don't have access to practices nor coaches discussions. We can only go by the information and stats afforded to us and make the best of it.

Technically, sure there is luck involved but there is a lot of skill and common sense as well. This is why I equate Fantasy Football to Poker.

For example: I had Emmanuel Sanders on MNF last week. I just needed one more catch from him with three quarters to play and he got hurt in the first half and was out for the game. I lost by one point that week. Sure, that was bad luck, but if I was in the same position again, I would still put Sanders in my lineup and the odds say that given the same scenario again, he would finish the game and produce more than 4 fantasy points. Just like in Poker, if you are ahead in a hand but have a bad beat on the river by some fish who luckily hit a gut shot straight draw, it doesn't mean it was a bad play by you. Actually, the odds say that you will win your hands more often than you lose given that scenario again. Fantasy football is the same way. 

The reason why I'm not so into this "luck" talk, is because "some" owners don't use common sense nor manage their teams right. There's too many examples to list. Some of it is bad resources where owners take stock into "experts" opinions way too much. Some of it is owners "going with the gut" way too much. 

 

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1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

The line itself is arbitrary, I'll admit, but it's a harbinger of what "skill" people are professing to have - namely, accurately predicting when players will perform well in advance of games.

So yeah, I think it matters.

well digs should be started ever week in 12 teamers with normal sized rosters so it really doesn't matter when you know hes going to have a good game. not like ur going to sit him. 

 

a better example would be rojo in tb. but if ur starting  ro jo outside of a heavy bye week then you obviously didn't draft well or ur teams inj. (not to sound like a hole but I was still winning with adams, barkley, h henry, aj green ect on multiple teams) 

I think fantasy football is less luck based than baseball or basketball. maybe that's my bias as football is my best fantasy sport and consistently make playoffs and win. 

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I think it comes down to the type of league you're in to determine the percentage of luck vs skill.  In my league it's a re-draft and we pick names out of a hat for draft order - so the luck sets the stage to start and is pretty impactful.  Then of course waivers are set to start inverse of the draft order, so there's the luck coming into play again.  Lastly, I play in a non-ppr so trying to guess touchdowns is a fool's errand, so luck wins out again.  The skill comes in in doing your research, working the wire constantly, looking for trades, and playing the matchups.  In the end no one can really predict how some random football players will perform on any given day but you can hedge based on the stats.  The solution to my league specific issues are half ppr, auction draft, and FAAB instead of waivers, but that's asking for too much for my league...

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10 minutes ago, eg4190 said:

 

The skill was in drafting Diggs in the first place, knowing he’d be a high-variance asset, and pairing him with a more stable WR. In my draft, I took Diggs after AB and before Cooks, both of whom I had avoided like the plague in every mock draft. I haven’t benched Diggs all season, but I’m still heading to the playoffs — not because of luck, but because I tended to flex higher upside assets when Diggs was at risk of a floor game.

LOL.

The fact that you're acknowledging that there are "risks of floor games" hints to me that you're capable of making a prediction in these games.

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3 minutes ago, TheINC said:

I think it comes down to the type of league you're in to determine the percentage of luck vs skill.  In my league it's a re-draft and we pick names out of a hat for draft order - so the luck sets the stage to start and is pretty impactful.  Then of course waivers are set to start inverse of the draft order, so there's the luck coming into play again.  Lastly, I play in a non-ppr so trying to guess touchdowns is a fool's errand, so luck wins out again.  The skill comes in in doing your research, working the wire constantly, looking for trades, and playing the matchups.  In the end no one can really predict how some random football players will perform on any given day but you can hedge based on the stats.  The solution to my league specific issues are half ppr, auction draft, and FAAB instead of waivers, but that's asking for too much for my league...

while I agree somewhat draft position doesn't matter. hitting on ur pick does. just look at all the people that got 1.1 and took barkely or zeke over cmc. is that bad luck or skill for the owners that took cmc 1.1?

yea full ppr is what I mostly play and superflex and that has more skill/strategy involved . haven't played non ppr in many years and ur post sums up non ppr.

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13 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

well digs should be started ever week in 12 teamers with normal sized rosters so it really doesn't matter when you know hes going to have a good game. not like ur going to sit him. 

 

a better example would be rojo in tb. but if ur starting  ro jo outside of a heavy bye week then you obviously didn't draft well or ur teams inj. (not to sound like a hole but I was still winning with adams, barkley, h henry, aj green ect on multiple teams) 

I think fantasy football is less luck based than baseball or basketball. maybe that's my bias as football is my best fantasy sport and consistently make playoffs and win. 

Pointing that his cumulative point totals indicate "he should have been started every week" doesn't mean that:

A.) Doing so didn't help contribute to you losing some weeks (I assure you it can).

Or

B.) During these weeks that can make or break a championship season, if this game is entirely based on skill, the most skillful can't predict whether their best alternative is to do so.

Because to me, if this isn't based on some sort of random chance, you're not using terms like "playing the odds" that a guy like Diggs is worth starting over someone on your bench or on the wire.  It isn't a "strongly probable chance that starting your studs is the right way to go."

It's simply something you know.  Yes or no.

Edited by JE7HorseGod

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I’m averaging 113.7 ppg. 

One guy in my league is scoring 137 ppg. 

I’m on pace to make the playoffs. He needs help to get into the playoffs.

Opponents are averaging a whooping 143 ppg against him. And only 104 ppg against me. 

Insane bad luck for him. Complete random schedule. That is crazy. 

Straight up luck if I make the playoffs over him. You name a 40 burger performance this season...great chance he went up against him. 

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3 minutes ago, Tenner said:

I’m averaging 113.7 ppg. 

One guy in my league is scoring 137 ppg. 

I’m on pace to make the playoffs. He needs help to get into the playoffs.

Opponents are averaging a whooping 143 ppg against him. And only 104 ppg against me. 

Insane bad luck for him. Complete random schedule. That is crazy. 

Straight up luck if I make the playoffs over him. You name a 40 burger performance this season...great chance he went up against him. 

 

Scoring is random which is why fantasy is a game of chance. I lost 1 h2h 203- 197  the 3rd best score that week was 148pts in a league where scoring 130pts  gives u a high probability to win your week. Neither one of us crossed 165pts after that week.  However it is not luck or randomness that we bid in auction the players we did who have the ability to produce those points.  Targeting players like Amari cooper and lamar jackson was not a random occurrence. 

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I think eye test and intuition are huge. I think some are better than others at seeing how scenarios will unfold. It shows up in their drafting and early season pick ups. It shows up in choosing players based on match ups. A player strong in that intuition will overcome obstacles and most likely make the playoffs. 

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22 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

 

I went and took a look at guys who had 40+ point weeks over the past 29 seasons (going back to 1990).  I know you mentioned 30+ points and the number of players hitting that mark, but I was curious to see if there was any uptick in "huge" games in the past five years.  It doesn't look like it.  

Very interesting. Doesn't it seem like it though? Maybe it's just me but I feel like we see a lot more blow-up weeks than we did even a few years ago.

I know in my league which has been going for about 15 years the top scoring team's season total the past two years has been higher than ever. 

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