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zissou

Project Prospect's updated top 50 prospects

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The List

Some interesting things to note:

Billy Butler top hitting prospect

Buchholz shooting all the way up to 9

Andy LaRoche higher than Ryan Braun

Slowey quite a bit higher than Garza

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That site is pretty cool. I am in a 40 man roster 14 team keeper league (keep everyone) and I was wondering if there was a site that updated prospect lists during the season. On that list I am a little surprised at how high Pence is considering every pre-season report I read had him listed as MLB ready but with a pretty low ceiling. I am still a little shocked to see how high Brandon Wood is listed, the guy K's way to often to ever be considered a superstar unless you consider Sexson/Glaus type players superstars.

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The List

Some interesting things to note:

Billy Butler top hitting prospect

Buchholz shooting all the way up to 9

Andy LaRoche higher than Ryan Braun

Slowey quite a bit higher than Garza

thanks for the site nice info

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thats a good site....been using it since the start of April

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The List

Some interesting things to note:

Billy Butler top hitting prospect

Buchholz shooting all the way up to 9

Andy LaRoche higher than Ryan Braun

Slowey quite a bit higher than Garza

Very informative link. Like zing said, its cool to have something that stays updated. A couple comments i have, though:

I dont really agree with the huge drop for Garza. I agree that his numbers are down and that Slowey may be as good or better. However, to look at his numbers and compare them with Clippard, and drop him 21 because of that isnt the entire story. I posted on here 2 or 3 weeks ago speculating that Garza's numbers were down because of the Twins front office forcing him to throw a lot more offspeed stuff and that he's proved he can dominate AAA hitters with his fastball (not trying to toot my own horn, but); i was completely right. For those of you that havent seen the article:

Garza's complaint

If you get past the fact that its a bit whiny and quite a bit self-righteous, theres a lot of truth that can be reflected on Matt's numbers. Its obviously true that you cant get big league hitters out with just fastballs, but it seems like he's just having trouble picking the right time for his offspeed stuff. He actually has a pretty good hook, but he was focusing on hitting 'minimums' rather than establishing a fastball and then getting hitters offbalance. Having a great game-caller like Mauer would definitely help the situation. That being said, he's still walking too many guys, too. I just dont think its fair to look at his numbers, drop him, and compare him with Clippard. Garza has much better stuff than his numbers show.

My next comment:

Where the hell is Wladimer Balentien??!? Foster said he was going to base a lot of the rankings on numbers from here on in, so why is Adam Jones so high and Balentien nowhere to be found? This isnt me being 'holier than thou'....i really wanna know why this guy is not on ANY list ive seen. Ive followed his box scores ever since i saw a section on him on one of rotoworld's waiver-wire articles. The things he's doing in Tacoma are outrageous. He's playing right next to Jones and (numbers-wise) blowing him out of the water...in every single offensive category. However, whenever i see anything about Mariners prospects, Jones is always number 1. Can anyone shed any light on this??

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Where the hell is Wladimer Balentien??!? Foster said he was going to base a lot of the rankings on numbers from here on in, so why is Adam Jones so high and Balentien nowhere to be found? This isnt me being 'holier than thou'....i really wanna know why this guy is not on ANY list ive seen. Ive followed his box scores ever since i saw a section on him on one of rotoworld's waiver-wire articles. The things he's doing in Tacoma are outrageous. He's playing right next to Jones and (numbers-wise) blowing him out of the water...in every single offensive category. However, whenever i see anything about Mariners prospects, Jones is always number 1. Can anyone shed any light on this??

Thanks for the thread and I'm glad you enjoyed the in-season update.

While I am using numbers more in my rankings this year than last year, note that I used 2006 and 2007 numbers for these rankings. Balentien was .230/.337/.435 last year. As Balentien continues to prove himself, he'll continue to climb up prospect lists. He's easily inside my Top 100 right now. And at this pace, he'll surely be mentioned in my mid-season Top 50.

I'll keep checking this thread if anyone else has questions.

Adam Foster

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I have a tough time saying McCutchen over many of the guys listed behind him. He has done nothing but struggle at AA, though he is starting to turn the ship around.

Chris Marrero should definately have cracked this list with the May he has put up. Out of high school, and all of a sudden he found his swing. 11 HR in May? If Snider is on this list, then Marrero needs to be in the top 50...especially over Barton, Humber, Stewart.

Yes, I know, you're using last years stats, but in the case of somebody like Marrero, the transition straight out of HS into pro ball is tough and takes a winter, if not a full pro year to make the proper adjustments. He's currently on a path similar to that of Jay Bruce. This is especially true of you're going to say Lars Anderson has instantly adjusted to pro ball, and that he's a future stud.

Brandon Wood's high ranking also bugs me. He's done nothing this year but struggle. More K's than hits, ditto that of McCutchen. Yes, I know, it's early- but that's a really really poor sign for Wood, especially considering that's the main knock on him. He's not really hitting for anything, and his K-Rate has increased. Him ahead of Bailey, Upton, Kershaw, F-Mart (18 year old in AA hitting .300?) is perplexing to me.

That said, if it weren't for lists like these that I disagree with, then I wouldn't look into the numbers as much as I do. So I'm not saying it's bad, I just disagree with some of it. It's a good read and the comments are pretty good, too.

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I

have a tough time saying McCutchen over many of the guys listed behind

him. He has done nothing but struggle at AA, though he is starting to

turn the ship around.

Chris Marrero should definately have

cracked this list with the May he has put up. Out of high school, and

all of a sudden he found his swing. 11 HR in May? If Snider is on this

list, then Marrero needs to be in the top 50...especially over Barton,

Humber, Stewart.

Yes, I know, you're using last years stats,

but in the case of somebody like Marrero, the transition straight out

of HS into pro ball is tough and takes a winter, if not a full pro year

to make the proper adjustments. He's currently on a path similar to

that of Jay Bruce. This is especially true of you're going to say Lars

Anderson has instantly adjusted to pro ball, and that he's a future

stud.

Brandon Wood's high ranking also bugs me. He's done

nothing this year but struggle. More K's than hits, ditto that of

McCutchen. Yes, I know, it's early- but that's a really really poor

sign for Wood, especially considering that's the main knock on him.

He's not really hitting for anything, and his K-Rate has increased. Him

ahead of Bailey, Upton, Kershaw, F-Mart (18 year old in AA hitting

.300?) is perplexing to me.

That said, if it weren't for lists

like these that I disagree with, then I wouldn't look into the numbers

as much as I do. So I'm not saying it's bad, I just disagree with some

of it. It's a good read and the comments are pretty good, too.<br>

Glad you enjoyed the list and comments.

Your gripe with Wood is perfectly reasonable.

But I don't completely agree with you about Marrero, who took the

biggest hit of the trio you mentioned (Marrero, Travis Snider, and Lars

Anderson) due to BB/K ratio. Though he has been hitting the ball out of

the yard regularly in Low-A, Marrero doesn't have the same kind of

track record with strike zone judgement as Snider and Anderson. Snider

(.53) and Anderson (.54) both have better career BB/K rates than

Marrero (.34). I think plate discipline is instrumental in a prospect's

development - though it is noteworthy that Marrero and Snider are

virtually the same this season.

Also, Marrero is coming off another great week. So given that he barely

missed my Top 50 (published 5.21.07) and that he has such a small

sample of pro statistics, he could have easily made my Top 50 if I

would have published it on Memorial Day rather than the week before.

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Glad you enjoyed the list and comments.

Your gripe with Wood is perfectly reasonable.

But I don't completely agree with you about Marrero, who took the

biggest hit of the trio you mentioned (Marrero, Travis Snider, and Lars

Anderson) due to BB/K ratio. Though he has been hitting the ball out of

the yard regularly in Low-A, Marrero doesn't have the same kind of

track record with strike zone judgement as Snider and Anderson. Snider

(.53) and Anderson (.54) both have better career BB/K rates than

Marrero (.34). I think plate discipline is instrumental in a prospect's

development - though it is noteworthy that Marrero and Snider are

virtually the same this season.

Also, Marrero is coming off another great week. So given that he barely

missed my Top 50 (published 5.21.07) and that he has such a small

sample of pro statistics, he could have easily made my Top 50 if I

would have published it on Memorial Day rather than the week before.

Cool. Yeah, that's my only knock on Marrero as well. He needs to learn how to draw his walks. He doesn't know how to do that yet. He's only 18 or 19, but he will develop nicely I think. He's easily the best prospect in the Nationals system. Balester needs to get his BAA under control, especially in the Eastern League. He has put up some really good numbers everywhere else, but that BAA will not translate well in AAA or MLB.

Marrero and Snider are virtually the same, yeah. The two best high school hitters in last years draft class, easily. Snider seems like he'll be a more consistent hitter, for the reasons you mentioned, and is finally getting his power stroke back in the past week or so. I believe he's hit a pair of home runs. Marrero needs to learn to be more patient, obviously.

I would, though, take both of them longterm over Lars Anderson, but that's just me.

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You can't forget Rowell.

P.S. I met Marrero and wrote about him for Baseball America earlier this season. I'd link the story but it seems like the moderators here are link-happy destroyers -- linked a perfectly relevent story before and it was removed in seconds...I can't stand when people use their power wands like that...your company isn't actually losing advertising dollars if you don't delete links...rethink your policy. Just search "Marrerro" and "Foster" on Baseball America's website and it will come up right away.

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Either way - great work, man. I give the milb box scores a once over every day, but its really hard to extrapolate trends from checking box scores. Its great to have an updated list that sums everything up for guys like me. I'll definitely keep the link on my favorites....how often do you update it??

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You can't forget Rowell.

P.S. I met Marrero and wrote about him for Baseball America earlier this season. I'd link the story but it seems like the moderators here are link-happy destroyers -- linked a perfectly relevent story before and it was removed in seconds...I can't stand when people use their power wands like that...your company isn't actually losing advertising dollars if you don't delete links...rethink your policy. Just search "Marrerro" and "Foster" on Baseball America's website and it will come up right away.

Awesome. I have a BA and BP subscription, so I'll check it out.

yeah, Rowell has slipped through my radar. Haven't liked what I've ready about him so far with the Barry Bonds attitude, and he has just started playing.

Of course, he has tremendous potential too. Just haven't seen anything out of him yet.

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Very good article. I had forgotten about King out of last years draft class. Some pretty cool tidbits on Marrero.

I also didn't know he had a high 70 on the 20-80 scale for power last year. Looks like that is starting to seep through nowadays.

Anyway, that was a good read. Was cool to see how he and King clash but are likely the future of the franchise. Maybe King won't be, but he still can be a solid player. Marrero is really the Nats best and only "Excellent" prospect. Balester and Willems can be very good, but not as good as Marrero can be.

Just my two cents, anyway.

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Either way - great work, man. I give the milb box scores a once over every day, but its really hard to extrapolate trends from checking box scores. Its great to have an updated list that sums everything up for guys like me. I'll definitely keep the link on my favorites....how often do you update it??

I'm going to update my Top 50 again at mid-season and 3/4 season. I'll be doing the a Top 25 at least every other week.

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Awesome. I have a BA and BP subscription, so I'll check it out.

yeah, Rowell has slipped through my radar. Haven't liked what I've ready about him so far with the Barry Bonds attitude, and he has just started playing.

Of course, he has tremendous potential too. Just haven't seen anything out of him yet.

You're weighing attitude way to heavily and I think you're misunderstanding what's been said about Rowell. He's confident...like Chipper Jones. A lot of ball players have that kind of personality. Rowell could go on to become the best high school hitter from his draft class. Writing him off at this point would be foolish.

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You're weighing attitude way to heavily and I think you're misunderstanding what's been said about Rowell. He's confident...like Chipper Jones. A lot of ball players have that kind of personality. Rowell could go on to become the best high school hitter from his draft class. Writing him off at this point would be foolish.

Oh, I know. I'm not writing him off at all. It's just that with the progression I've seen from Snider and Marrero and what I've read about them so far, I just seem to like them better at this point. Of course if Rowell goes and hits .330/.410/.500 then that will change, and I'd move him ahead of Marrero and around Snider. It depends on where Snider finishes. Rowell can easily be the best, but I just want to see it after what I've seen from Snider and Marrero before I put him ahead of these guys. Plus oblique injuries can be quite nagging.

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BTW* Thank you very much for that link.

Glad you guys enjoyed it.

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