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Baseball Jonze

Who's Next?

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I've finally landed in the top waiver priority in a deep keeper league, however all of the sure call-ups havve been called up or added to the database (Yahoo!). Bailey, Lincecum and Co. prior to the draft, Pence, Saltalamacchia, Hughes and Butler during the season and and Gallardo, Braun, Slowey most recently. I guess the next big fish is Adam Miller of the Tribe, however he doesn't really excite me too much. There doesn't seem to be any MI prospects coming up - Am I waiting for the sepetember call-ups with my fingers crossed hoping for Justin Upton, Jay Bruce and/or Cammy Maybin to be added? What is the real liklihood any of those three are called up and added this season?

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Adam Miller is a good one. I'd keep your eye out on him. He may not excite you, but he'll be a top of the rotation starter.

As far as middle infield prospects go, I replied and gave my two cents on one a few threads down. Brignac is the best middle infielder in the minors now, the D-Rays AA SS. He is struggling right now in AA, and I don't anticipate him being called up this year.

You might see Upton in September with the way he has been mashing at AA. That would not surprise me. Jay Bruce, I highly doubt you see, ditto Maybin.

Longoria might get called up in September for the D-Rays- the best hitter out of last years draft. Mashed last year, was on an absolute tear recently, then hit a funk lately. He's still a stud, and has perennial All-Star potential.

Fernando Martinez is one to watch out for. I doubt he gets any MLB time at all this year, being 18 in AA, but, he is hitting .300. And the Mets like to reward players that do well by giving them a taste of the MLB- see Gomez. So I would not be 100% shocked to see him up in September, even though I'm skeptical it'll happen.

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Would Miller be worth grabbing over gambling on Upton come September? I have Verlander, King Felix and CC Sabathia in my rotation. I forgot to mention Evan Longoria was added before the season in the Yahoo! database and thus already owned.

THX for the reply BTW.

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No, I don't know if Miller is that good to risk on the opportunity to grab Upton. Upton is a really, really special talent.

That said, it's also no guarantee that he gets the call up in September. There's certainly no guarantee that happens. Though if he continues raking in AA, it's tough to say that he hasn't earned it. But AZ is so crowded in their outfield as it is...who knows though.

You also have to consider that Miller will be pitching in the AL Central- against the Twins, Tigers and White Sox. Pretty stiff comp.

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i dont see too many impact prospects for the rest of the yr. the majority of the really good prospects are in high A or AA ball (like all those HS OFs like bruce, upton, mccutcheon, maybin, rasmus, etc) and are better bets in 08, most likely 09.

-i expect andy laroche's role to expand but i dont expect much production from him yet

-longoria could get a september call-up but he has no spot other than DHing or maybe shifiting to SS

-adam miller's a decent bet for later in the season, but by then he'd be getting up there in innings and could be used out of the BP. i just dont see a rotation spot opening up for him any time soon, barring injury.

-brignac's not ready.

-james loney could get another call, but nomar will have to go down or be dealt before he has an impact

-jeff niemann is very intriguing, he could be 3rd in line right now to get called up (behind hammel and sonnanstine) but hes got the stuff to dominate off the bat. niemann could get the call to help out in the BP, but he could get some starts down the stretch as well.

-adam jones will likely get a call up if the mariners deal one of their OFs, but hes not ready to make an impact yet.

-felix pie could be called back up if he starts to hit better and could have some real value later in the season. hes on a nice little run at the plate and could be called back up sooner than people think. he'd be an upgrade over jacque jones or angel pagan in CF if he can at least hit .270-.275.

-josh fields could be called up depending on joe crede's back. crede's been in trade rumors but i doubt he'll get dealt cuz of his lingering back problems. i persoanlly think fields can hit big league pitching right now. keep an eye on the crede situation.

-joey votto's prolly gone in your league but i think he's the next real impact bat. reds will soon realize that theyre out of the picture so theyll give the kids a look. other than billy butler, votto's the most ready minor leaguer at the plate.

- 2 AA arms to keep in mind by the end of the year are eric hurley and gio gonzalez. both are absolutely dealing and could move up the ranks quickly. gonzalez would likely need a trade or for danks to fall on his face to crack the rotation. if hurley stays on course he could crack the rotation by september, the rangers rotation sucks.

-clay buchholz is dominating but i dont see him leapfrogging lester for that 5th spot in the rotation.

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i dont see too many impact prospects for the rest of the yr. the majority of the really good prospects are in high A or AA ball (like all those HS OFs like bruce, upton, mccutcheon, maybin, rasmus, etc) and are better bets in 08, most likely 09.

-i expect andy laroche's role to expand but i dont expect much production from him yet

-longoria could get a september call-up but he has no spot other than DHing or maybe shifiting to SS

-adam miller's a decent bet for later in the season, but by then he'd be getting up there in innings and could be used out of the BP. i just dont see a rotation spot opening up for him any time soon, barring injury.

-brignac's not ready.

-james loney could get another call, but nomar will have to go down or be dealt before he has an impact

-jeff niemann is very intriguing, he could be 3rd in line right now to get called up (behind hammel and sonnanstine) but hes got the stuff to dominate off the bat. niemann could get the call to help out in the BP, but he could get some starts down the stretch as well.

-adam jones will likely get a call up if the mariners deal one of their OFs, but hes not ready to make an impact yet.

-felix pie could be called back up if he starts to hit better and could have some real value later in the season. hes on a nice little run at the plate and could be called back up sooner than people think. he'd be an upgrade over jacque jones or angel pagan in CF if he can at least hit .270-.275.

-josh fields could be called up depending on joe crede's back. crede's been in trade rumors but i doubt he'll get dealt cuz of his lingering back problems. i persoanlly think fields can hit big league pitching right now. keep an eye on the crede situation.

-joey votto's prolly gone in your league but i think he's the next real impact bat. reds will soon realize that theyre out of the picture so theyll give the kids a look. other than billy butler, votto's the most ready minor leaguer at the plate.

- 2 AA arms to keep in mind by the end of the year are eric hurley and gio gonzalez. both are absolutely dealing and could move up the ranks quickly. gonzalez would likely need a trade or for danks to fall on his face to crack the rotation. if hurley stays on course he could crack the rotation by september, the rangers rotation sucks.

-clay buchholz is dominating but i dont see him leapfrogging lester for that 5th spot in the rotation.

They aren't gonna shift Longoria to SS- Brignac is being groomed for there.

Niemann is a good call, but I wouldn't put him above Miller.

Fields I don't think is gonna be a huge impact this year or in the future. I think he'll be a very nice player though. Not an all-star, but a good player.

Hurley is great, though the Rangers do seem to baby their pitchers. Which is a good thing. And you always have to be weary of Texas pitchers.

Gio is great, but he won't make it up this year, I dont think, as a starter for reasons you said. Bucholz is a year away.

So you're right, but, the upside of any of these guys you mentioned isn't anywhere near Upton's. The only guy I'd risk losing that spot on is Miller against Upton.

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Boy, in a keeper league that allows Yahoo to indiscriminately dictate when the next thing gets called up, just for the SHOT at getting Justing Upton later in the year would be enough for me to hold out on that badboy. We are going to see some worthwhile call-ups this Sept, and they'll be more valuable than Miller.

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Hey Jonze, you didn't mention the keeper details on your league - do you get to keep the callups at what salary for how many years? Do you have to increase the player's salary after 2 years? 3 years? In our league, a FAAB (or in your case, waiver) pickup has a minimum salary of $10, and can only be kept that way for 2 years (including this year), then we have to decide on increasing the contract, so for any FAAB/waiver pickup we would have 'em only for next year guaranteed at the same price, then have to increase the price to keep 'em for a longer period of time.

If your system rewards being patient, then I'd hold off the waiver priority for any one of the 3 guys you mentioned. Out of the 3, I would be DELIGHTED with any one of them - Maybin is a 5-tool talent just like Upton, and he's going to be protected on a contending team for the foreseeable future (with their sick young pitchers, gonna be a good run for a while for the Tigers). Bruce and Upton both are going to play in homer-friendly parks, and in Bruce's case, that team is gonna be playing a lot of 9-8 games, so he's going to have the green light. Any one of those 3 are easy 30/30 candidates, and maybe even 40/40 (Maybin's the least developed power-wise, but has the tools). Upton is the most ready right now, and looking at his bro, you can guess at what kind of ceiling we're dealing with (BJ himself said Justin actually might be better).

But, if your system makes it so if a player isn't producing RIGHT AWAY (in 2008), he's not as valuable then I would consider using the waiver priority on the following guys IF they get called up in the next month or so:

1. Adam Miller - yeah, I don't think he's going to come up soon (he's on the DL for 3 more weeks, so I really doubt it will happen), but point is, if he gets called up, they're going to use him in the rotation (unless he gets called up in September or just before, then it's for depth). Point is, he gets the callup in July, they're going to be using him. Until he gets called up, no point. However, make no mistake - he has #1 potential, before his injury he was filthy, and if anything he's learned to be a better pitcher. Filthy stuff, plays on a division leader and an idea on how to pitch? Sign me up.

2. Evan Longoria - he's gonna be a 3B, his bat is SICK. If the Rays were smart, they'd trade Wiggington for any value, and move Iwamura to 2B and put Longoria there (if they were really smart, they wouldn't have signed Iwamura at all - he's a good player, but Longoria is the future @ 3B for TB, and he showed he might be ready in the fall/winter). He looks ready, and he could really have an impact right away. Also remember that while he won't be a SS, he *might* get moved around to 2B/3B a la Wiggington, which would increase his value significantly.

3. Joey Votto - as long as you don't need avg. with your power, he's your guy. Going to be their 1B for a while, and could make Dunn trade bait so the Reds can get some more pitching.

4. Jon Lester - I'm going to assume no one has mentioned him because he's not considered a minors player. I've drafted him knowing he'd miss at least 1/3 of the season, and he's the ONLY pitcher I see left in the minors besides Garza, Bailey & Adam Miller who could have a huge impact this year. Filthy stuff, he only had command problems last year when he came up - he's cancer free, and the Sox are making him use his other pitches besides his cutter, plus being patient since they're so far up. But when he comes up he'll be the #5 pitcher on the best AL team so far (I'm a Jays fan, so I'm not being biased, please don't start), and so could help you in 4 categories right away.

5. Matt Garza - well, Slowey's up, and unless Silva continues to pitch well, he's next. Yes, he struggled last year, and it looks by his statements it's mostly maturity issues, but there's no denying his stuff. Plus, look at his AAA #'s, they suggest he's learning NOW how to adjust. Another one with a potential huge impact for this season.

Agree that both R. Brignac and A. Jones are great candidates, but won't make an impact this year or next, think 2008 callup, 2009-2010 huge impact. But, if you're thinking 2009 and beyond, then Bucholz & Jose Tabata & Felix Martinez are my picks, but I don't think using a #1 waiver claim this year makes sense unless your format rewards such forward planning to a ridiculous degree (our minors draft rewards you for picking players 3 years ahead & schedule, so guys like Mauer and D. Young get taken the year they are drafted, and then we wait).

Bottom line - if your league allows you to keep guys who could be HUGE in 2009 and beyond, Maybin/Upton/Bruce are the next BIG things for 2009. But if you need the prospects to step up in 2008, I don't know that Upton/Bruce/Maybin will be MONSTERS until 2009 (and then I'd have to say Upton is the guy, he's the most ready, followed by Bruce then Maybin). And in that case, I'd include the list above (put it another way - in my AL-only league, all of the AL guys I mentioned are long gone, and in the NL-only, Votto was long gone as well).

(And yeah, I have Lester, Miller and Maybin, so I may be biased, but I'd like to think I drafted them this year BECAUSE of their immense potential B) ).

Hope that helps,

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It's a pretty basic keeper league, no contracts or anything to worry about. 16 team league with 25 man rosters must keep a minimum or eight and upto a maximum of twelve, I guess it's more of a quasi-dynasty league given the number of keepers. Basically I could keep Upton as my 12th keeper without doing much damage to my current team should he be added anytime this year. However if he isn't added, I lose my priority with the last place team this season getting first priority next season (as well as first non-keeper draft pick if they decide to keep the minimum of eight players.

With Chris Young in center, I'm wondering position Justin will play in the Show. I have Sizemore and Delmon Young as keepers for Cf and RF respectively, so i'm hoping he ends up in LF. Though in reality Quentin will probably be shifted over to LF with Justin in RF if Byrnes is the odd man out.

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It's a pretty basic keeper league, no contracts or anything to worry about. 16 team league with 25 man rosters must keep a minimum or eight and upto a maximum of twelve, I guess it's more of a quasi-dynasty league given the number of keepers. Basically I could keep Upton as my 12th keeper without doing much damage to my current team should he be added anytime this year. However if he isn't added, I lose my priority with the last place team this season getting first priority next season (as well as first non-keeper draft pick if they decide to keep the minimum of eight players.

With Chris Young in center, I'm wondering position Justin will play in the Show. I have Sizemore and Delmon Young as keepers for Cf and RF respectively, so i'm hoping he ends up in LF. Though in reality Quentin will probably be shifted over to LF with Justin in RF if Byrnes is the odd man out.

Well, that makes it simpler - your league makes it so the guy has to be pretty productive in 2008, or you're basically drafting a guy who will be a reserve all year long. In that case, you really can only consider guys who will have a HUGE impact in 2008. I'm not even sure Upton is going to be ready for 2008, but he's the most ready, and has the highest ceiling. Maybin is more of a sure thing for 2009, as is Bucholz, Tabata, Brignac.

If your team needs pitching, keep an eye on Lester & Miller, otherwise I'd have to agree Upton's upside is worth waiting for - just keep in mind that when they get the callup, if Lester and/or Miller alone can put you over the top this year, you might have to do it. Otherwise, I'd sit tight for Upton.

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