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Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation since 02/10/2012 in all areas

  1. 69 points
    My Overall Top 250 (First Pass) w/Projections/Blurbs/Profiles/etc. So I just finished by blurbs for my first pass at my 2017 overall top 250 for 5x5 Roto leagues. Before I get into anything I wanted to establish a bit of a framework or context for my ranks. This framework I’ll mark by sections and will briefly cover my philosophy as to my intentions with posting my ranks, my method of creating projections, and a bit of a “usage guide” so to speak about how I view the relationship between Rankings, Projections and ADP data. If you want to skip the framework and just click the links to the bottom links I won’t fault you for it at all, but I definitely recommend reading at least the guide because I do find my interpretation of the relationship between Rankings, Projections, and ADP to be important to a reading of my ranks. Intent -- I get two comments typically in regards to ranks: “When will you post them,” and “Why do you post them, because I play in leagues with people who frequent this forum and I don’t want them to know what I’m thinking at the draft board.” I completely understand the latter point, but it has (obviously) never really been my approach to withhold information. Typically if I have information that I haven’t posted yet it is because I’m either working on it or haven’t had the time to develop a profile in a way that makes it more easily viewable. I love playing Fantasy Baseball and I love winning leagues but that’s really never been my big thing. When you boil it down, I’m just not that competitive, at least in that way. I’m competitive in the sense that I want my opinion to be as accurate as possible, I want to be right as often as possible, and perhaps most important, if there’s something that can help me identify where I’m wrong, I’d like to know where it is, identify it, and adjust my own rankings. That’s the real intention of posting this: on the one hand, it does have something to do with giving information and enjoying that aspect of the game, but on the other hand, placing my personal ranks up for public scrutiny creates the easiest avenue for my rankings to be as accurate as possible. In simplistic terms: you get all my work, all my research, and all of my opinions placed simply in front of you with less work; I get you to read it over, identify possible flaws, fix my mistakes, and I get to manipulate ya'll into giving me more sources of information and allowing me to create at least to me what will be the best possible ranking set I can have come draft day. Now, if it’s a player like Story, Blackmon, Baez, Votto, Polanco, or someone that I have a fairly strong opinion on, most likely it’s not going to change without a very surprising bit of information I may have missed, but obviously I haven’t profiled every baseball player quite to the extent that I have guys like Polanco or Story. This thread and these ranks will help create an impetus by which I will be persuaded in various directions to make various more inquiries and, again, create what I believe to be the best possible ranking set. Projections -- This will be brief, because there isn’t necessarily one direct way I go about making projections. My typical path which I followed with most if not all of these players is to do the following: -Project BB% based on past performance, trends, and other patience metrics. -Project K% based on past performance, trends, and other patience and contact metrics. -Project BABIP based on past performance, trends, and predictors including Hard%, Oppo%, GB/LD/FB distribution, Speed, and more. -Project FB% based on past FB%’s and weighing trends. -Project HR/FB% based on career marks, recent trends, and distances -Project PAs -Formulate -Adjust The biggest one here is adjust. I do create a baseline with some sort of model, but for the most part, when my model (read: Calculator) spits out a baseline, I don’t just copy/paste it into my excel. I adjust. A ton of factors can go into these adjustments. Pitch specific data is the biggest that I’ve worked with more heavily this year, but as I said earlier, I just haven’t profiled everybody. So more or less, there are projections that are fairly close to the “baseline” which is pretty much my version of a Steamer or ZiPS, albeit with more weight in trends in players and of advanced stats metrics like Hard%, etc, and there are projections that I’ve worked on a lot and have moved up down and around to get to what I think is the fair projection to make for said player. I’m not worried to break from what a mathematical model spits out to me to create a projection I feel is more accurate for the player. Using My Ranks -- Relating Proj./Rank./ADP -- I find a lot if not most of the people who create their own projections model their Rankings heavily based on their projections. While my projections were done first, and no doubt informed my Rankings, I view them as almost mutually exclusive. Many players will have projections that suggest they should be ranked higher, lower, or differently. One primary factor that can go into this is safety. Rizzo is a prime example of someone who doesn’t have the greatest projection but still has a high ranking because the last few years aside from some stolen base fluctuation, he has been a metronome. A high upside guy I’m confident in like Keon Broxton will inevitably have a projection that would vastly over-earn their ranking because in general I can’t have a complete confidence in them achieving that upside. For the most part, my rankings represent the order in which I would draft with no outside pressuring or constantly in a vacuum, and my projections are a combination of a prediction and a method of balancing numbers so that I can figure out how to balance categories in a 5x5. When ADP comes into play things get really messy. I have many players ranked near 100 picks off of where they are currently ranked by Yahoo!’s draft room, so how do I adjust for that? I don’t believe in constantly passing on superior players in the hopes that they continuously slip, but if I rank players within a marginal range or find another player that I really like and could perhaps support a different path of categorical value, I can find a way to justify passing on someone I rank higher and hoping they slip another round. For example, I have Jose Ramirez ranked 110ish spots above where he’s ranked in Yahoo, but I also have Sanchez, Beltre and Hanley in that range. So if I were in a position where I felt like I could justify getting a little more power first, or getting one of the top catchers, I could justify doing so instead of getting Ramirez and hoping he slips. However, once we exit players that I consider to be of a similar quality, I will draft Ramirez. Even if it’s pick 80 and he’s ranked 160 by the website. If he’s in a tier by himself in my rankings, he’s a must draft. Period. Dot. End. Of. Story. Another thing in regards to rankings: I have a really hard time ranking pitchers alongside relief pitchers alongside hitters, because at a certain point it’s obviously categorical. If you pick a hitter but you really need a pitcher because I have them ranked higher, than you’re probably not doing the right thing. After the top 30-40 picks, where I’d take a pitcher gets really complex, so for the most part, the pitchers are scattered through my ranks, not completely at random, but I never evaluate pitchers versus hitters for my overall after a certain point. Same for closers after the first few tiers. These are three separate markets in a draft to me so the overlap has to do with the way the draft is going. After a point, I didn’t know what relievers would get jobs, but I wanted to reserve the spots for later, so you’ll notice I have some RP spots reserved for future use. I don’t know if this is the best way to go about it, but it’s the way I did it. Here are my rankings in an excel spreadsheet. I didn’t do pitching projections. Maybe I will maybe I won’t, but they’re so much more variable that it’s so frustrating to do: Top 250 w/ Offensive Projections Here are my rankings listed with blurbs. I wrote small blurbs for most but not all offensive players. The blurbs at times link to content on this forum that I have written previously. There are no links to outside websites other than Rotoworld Forum Posts. Most of the blurbs I have written within the past 24-36 hours so if anything reads weird, I apologize, and let me know because I’ll edit it. On both these documents it has a publication date at the top. Edits will change the date, i.e. “Published 2/20” will become “Editted 3/1” to acknowledge changes. This is largely a compilation of my profiles: Overall Top 250 w/ Blurbs I did not write any blurbs for starting pitchers. I decided instead to use the ones I had previously written for my SP Ranks: My SP Ranks And will also add to this my recent profile of Tanner Roark: Tanner Roark Outlook and Profile So cheers, have at it boys, like I said, the goal is to attract criticism with the intent of improving rankings. I got in a mind set that I just wanted to finally get this first pass out so I've been working pretty much non stop on that Google Doc for about 24-36 hours minus elements of sleeping so it may sound a little rushed but I hope it comes across well. Sorry if it lacks the humor, we can't all be @ChicksDigTheOPS
  2. 44 points
    Rest in peace Kobe , you’ll forever be missed . A true legend to the game
  3. 40 points
  4. 38 points
    He must be yelling ‘ball’ before he throws each pitch.
  5. 37 points
  6. 36 points
  7. 35 points
    Just saw pic on Rotoworld. Dropped.
  8. 32 points
    As the season draws to a close, and we're all getting nervous (or cocky) for that last game, let me say thanks to all the good people (and some of the bad ones) on these forums. It's been good, and I've been lucky, but most of all, I honestly want to thank you guys for some great discussions, insights, advice, trolling, and of course some of the best gifs. See you on Sat/Sun/Mon, and see you next year in this roller coaster!
  9. 32 points
    Listened to Rush and now I have 19 bats and no pitching.
  10. 32 points
    those poor 139 ppl added Emeka Okafor
  11. 31 points
  12. 30 points
    I could just make this easy and list my roster this season.
  13. 30 points
    With the MLB regular season almost upon us, I figured I'd better get my 2018 Top Prospect list out before the attention gets shifted onto the MLB action. I believe this is my 3rd top 100 list I have released, and I have had requests from other community members to do one again so I'm finally delivering! I have included a rough prime projection for each player as well as an estimated ETA. I tried to not include prospects that have cemented their roles in the majors, so guys like Scott Kingery, Dustin Fowler and Shohei Ohtani are not on the list. Note that I place an emphasis on upside, namely power and speed guys, while also prioritizing closeness to the majors when the value is close. Positional value is also taken into consideration at times. Feel free to ask questions or drop a comment, always happy to discuss! Without further ado, onto the list: 1. Ronald Acuna – ATL - .285/.338, 27 HRs, 23 SBs – ETA Early 2018 2. Victor Robles – WAS - .287/.342, 19 HRs, 33 SBs – ETA Late 2018 3. Vlad Guerrero Jr. – TOR - .298/.385, 30 HRs, 4 SBs – ETA 2020 4. Eloy Jimenez – CHW - .272/.336, 36 HRs, 3 SBs – ETA Late 2019 5. Kyle Tucker - HOU - .282/.343, 27 HRs, 16 SBs – ETA 2019 6. Nick Senzel – CIN - .291/.361, 23 HRs, 16 SBs – ETA Mid 2018 7. Forrest Whitley – HOU - 3.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 239 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2018 8. Bo Bichette – TOR - .292/.343, 24 HRs, 11 SBs ETA – Mid-Late 2019 9. Fernando Tatis Jr. – SD - .271/.340, 27 HRs, 13 SBs – ETA Mid-Late 2019 10. Francisco Mejia – CLE - .294/.342, 18 HRs, 3 SBs – ETA Late 2018 11. Michael Kopech – CHW - 3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 226 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2018 12. Brendan Rodgers – COL - .281/.331, 26 HRs, 6 SBs – ETA Late 2018 13. Royce Lewis – MIN - .278/.338, 18 HRs, 27 SBs – ETA 2021 14. Luis Robert – CHW - .271/.335, 21 HRs, 23 SBs – ETA 2020 15. Willie Calhoun – TEX - .280/.342, 26 HRs, 2 SBs – ETA Early 2018 16. Triston McKenzie – CLE - 3.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 205 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2019 17. Walker Buehler – LAD - 3.42 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 219 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Mid 2018 18. Mitch Keller – PIT - 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 181 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2018 19. Taylor Trammell – CIN - .274/.339, 18 HRs, 26 SBs – ETA 2020/2021 20. Gleyber Torres – NYY - .282/.358, 22 HRs, 7 SBs – ETA Mid 2018 21. MacKenzie Gore – SD - 3.39 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 212 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2021 22. Juan Soto – WAS - .292/.347, 23 HRs, 5 SBs – ETA 2020/2021 23. Jorge Mateo – NYY - .268/.335, 11 HRs, 46 SBs – ETA Late 2018/2019 24. Brent Honeywell – TB - 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 186 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Mid-Late 2019 25. Austin Hays – BAL - .282/.316, 25 HRs, 3 SBs – ETA Mid-Late 2018 26. Austin Meadows – PIT - .284/.342, 18 HRs, 17 SBs - ETA Mid 2018 27. AJ Puk – OAK - 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 214 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2018 28. Jesus Sanchez – TB - .279/.327, 24 HRs, 9 SBs – ETA Late 2019/2020 29. Franklin Barreto – OAK - .278/.327, 18 HRs, 14 SBs – ETA Late 2017 30. Yordan Alvarez – HOU - .276/.352, 25 HRs, 2 SBs – ETA Late 2019 31. Jo Adell – LAA - .268/.328, 26 HRs, 19 SBs – ETA 2021 32. Anthony Alford – TOR - .272/.342, 17 HRs, 24 SBs – ETA Mid 2018 33. Jahmai Jones – LAA - .279/.338, 17 HRs, 19 SBs – ETA 2020 34. Kyle Wright – ATL - 3.51 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 189 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2019 35. Sixto Sanchez – PHI – 3.53 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 177 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2020 36. Ryan McMahon – COL - .271/.336, 24 HRs, 5 SBs – ETA Mid-Late 2018 37. Miguel Andujar – NYY - .284/.327, 21 HRs, 5 SBs – ETA Mid 2018 38. Willy Adames – TB - .268/.346, 20 HRs, 8 SBs – ETA Late 2018 39. Carter Kieboom – WSH - .271/.352, 23 HRs, 3 SBs – ETA 2020 40. Colton Welker – COL - .286/.335, 21 HRs, 5 SBs – ETA 2020 41. Keston Hiura – MIL - .286/.340, 18 HRs, 6 SBs – ETA 2019 42. Hunter Green – CIN - 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 204 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2021 43. Franklin Perez – DET - 3.67 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 187 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Mid 2019 44. Nate Pearson – TOR – 3.51 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 222 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2020 45. Leody Tavares – TEX - .279/.327, 13 HRs, 22 SBs – ETA 2021 46. Keibert Ruiz- LAD - .285/.327, 16 HRs, 2 SBs – ETA 2020 47. Alex Verdugo - LAD - 287/.346, 17 HRs, 7 SBs – ETA Mid-Late 2018 48. Luiz Gohara – ATL – 3.59 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 212 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Early 2018 49. Michel Baez – SD – 3.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 213 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2019 50. Kolby Allard – ATL - 3.59 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 166 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2018/2019 51. Jesus Luzardo – OAK – 3.55 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 190 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2020 52. Jake Bauers – TB - .278/.348, 17 HRs, 9 SBs – ETA Late 2018 53. Christian Stewart – DET - .255/.339, 26 HRs, 3 SBs – ETA Late 2018 54. Jhailyn Ortiz – PHI - .247/.333, 32 HRs, 2 SBs – ETA 2021 55. Heliot Ramos – SF - .251/.310, 25 HRs, 23 SBs – ETA 2021 56. Tyler O’Neill – STL - .258/.327, 29 HRs, 7 SBs – ETA Mid-Late 2018 57. Monte Harrison – MIA - .261/.323, 23 HRs, 18 SBs – ETA Mid- Late 2019 58. Mike Soroka – ATL - 3.54 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 182 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2019 59. Austin Riley – ATL - .261/.323, 25 HRs, 2 SBs – ETA Mid 2019 60. Michael Chavis – BOS - .258/.318, 28 HRs, 3 SBs – ETA Mid-Late 2019 61. Kyle Lewis – SEA - .268/.335, 25 HRs, 2 SBs – ETA Late 2019 62. Adrian Morejon – SD - 3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 176 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2021 63. Jay Groome – BOS - 3.69 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 203 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2021 64. Corbin Burns – MIL – 3.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 181 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Mid 2018 65. Estevan Florial – NYY - .248/.322, 24 HRs, 23 SBs – ETA 2020 66. Tristen Lutz – MIL - .269/.335, 26 HRs, 1 SB – ETA 2021 67. Alec Hansen – CWS – 3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 206 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Mid 2019 68. Justus Sheffield – NYY 3.72 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 184 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2018 69. Fernando Romero – MIN – 3.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 177 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Mid-Late 2018 70. Peter Alonso – NYM - .274/.324, 26 HRs, 1 SB – ETA Late 2019 71. Ian Anderson – ATL – 3.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 204 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2020 72. Chance Adames – NYY - 3.72 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 186 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Mid 2018 73. Cal Quantrill – SD - 3.71 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 179 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2019 74. Dylan Cease – CHW - 3.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 207 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2019 75. Matt Manning – DET - 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 213 K’s in 200 innings - ETA 2020 76. Luis Urias – SD .290/.342, 10 HRs, 9 SBs – ETA Mid 2018 77. Nick Gordon – MIN - .273/.329, 11 HRs, 13 SBs – ETA Late 2018 78. Jon Duplantier – ARI – 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 196 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2019 79. Adonis Medina – PHI – 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 175 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2020 80. Brandon Marsh – LAA - .270/.318, 19 HRs, 22 SBs – ETA 2020 81. Starling Heredia – LAD - .263/.334, 25 HRs, 7 SBs – ETA 2021 82. Kevin Maitan – LAA - .271/.342, 24 HRs, 4 SBs – ETA 2022 83. Mickey Moniak – PHI - .281/.338, 15 HRs, 18 SBs – ETA 2020/2021 84. Dane Dunning – CHW – 3.94 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 187 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Mid 2019 85. Chance Sisco – BAL - .274/.341, 14 HRs, 5 SBs – ETA Mid 2018 86. Danny Jansen – TOR - .276/.365, 15 HRs, 1 SB – ETA Late 2018 87. Albert Abreu – NYY – 3.80 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 212 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2019 88. Jose Albertos – CHC – 3.74 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 178 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2020 89. Anderson Espinoza – SD - 3.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 180 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2020 90. Bobby Bradley – CLE - .246/.329, 28 HRs, 2 SBs – ETA Mid-Late 2019 91. Carson Kelly – STL .268/.330, 16 HRs, 0 SBs – ETA Mid 2018 92. Pavin Smith – ARI - .286/.343, 20 HRs, 2 SBs – ETA 2019 93. Mitch White – LAD – 3.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 183 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Late 2019 94. Stephen Gonsalves – MIN – 3.94 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 174 K’s in 200 innings – ETA Mid-Late 2018 95. Brusdar Graterol – MIN – 3.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 187 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2021 96. Evan White – SEA - .273/.338, 18 HRs, 12 SBs – ETA 2020 97. Luis Medina – NYY – 3.84 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 215 K’s in 200 innings – ETA 2021 98. Akil Baddoo – MIN - .273/.349, 13 HRs, 18 SBs – ETA 2021 99. Touki Toussaint – ATL – 3.93 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 193 K’s in 200 innings 100. Nolan Jones – CLE - .273/.364, 22 HRs, 4 SBs – ETA 2020 HM’s: Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan Vilade, Garrett Hampson, Nick Pratto, Jorge Guzman, Sandy Alcantara, Jake Burger, Jose Siri, Lucas Erceg, Alex Faedo, Yadier Alvarez, J.B. Bukauskas, Isan Diaz, Lewin Diaz, Wander Javier, Alex Kirilloff, Andres Gimenez, James Kaprielian, Sheldon Neuse, Shane Baz, Lolo Sanchez, Esteury Ruiz, Gabriel Arias, Harrison Bader, Max Schrock, Randy Arozarena, Brendan McKay, Seth Romero, Yasel Antuna
  14. 28 points
  15. 27 points
  16. 27 points
  17. 27 points
    As usual, it was a crazy Week 1 in the NFL. Lots of overreactions and suprises, but two key takeaway from a fantasy perspective was the monster debut from rookie WRs (and Hockenson) and that QB play is deep and can be very much streamable week in-and-out. Here is my list of pickups for next week and moving forward. Most players will have ownership of less than 40%. For reference, I play in standard 0.5 PPR leagues on Yahoo with flex and 6 bench slots. QB Matthew Stafford - Only 26% owned in Yahoo leagues, Stafford is coming off a monster game with almost 400 yards passing and 3 TDs. Granted OT and playing a weak Cardinals defense help these numbers, Stafford can be a streamable option for next upcoming weeks. He has 3 solid WRs to throw too and a rookie TE with immense talent. Stafford plays a tough Chargers team next week, but has blowup potential in Week 3 and 4, playing Eagles and Chiefs respectively. RB Malcolm Brown - Posted 11/53/2TDs rushing, I think its clear who the direct backup to Gurley is as of now. Gurley will have better days, but Brown is arguably one of the best backup to have right now, given Gurley's usage and injury concern. If Brown can see around 8-12 touches a game moving forward, he definitely has some standalone appeal as a RB3/fringe flex play appeal. Adrian Peterson - With the uncertainty of Guice moving forward, AP could return as the primary rusher for this Redskins team. He won't offer much in the passing game and negative game scripts will hurt him, but if Trent Williams comes back, I would think this team would want to establish the run game more to keep themselves in games. Best viewed as an RB3 in standard leagues. Chris Thompson - PPR gold. Thompson posted 7/68 receiving with another 10 yards rushing. Anytime this Redskins team is down (which will happen alot this year), Thompson will be go-to RB. Main concern with him is injuries, as he is very injury prone. However, with injury to Guice, he can be a decent flex play in PPR leagues going forward. I would take him over AP in 0.5/full PPR leagues. Giovani Bernard - Most of his value is entirely dependent on Mixon's status, but an easy pickup and start if Mixon is out. Raheem Mostert/Jeff Wilson - The mess that is the 49ers backfield continues. Coleman's injury and Breida's minor in-game injuries will force more action to Mostert and potentially Wilson. Mostert posted 9/40 rushing, but I don't think anyone in this backfield will emerge as the workhorse. Still worth an add in deep leagues. Ronald Jones II - If he was dropped in your league, Jones may be worth rostering again. Posted arguably his best game with 11/75 rushing. However, Barber and Ogunbowale were both involved as well. Overall, this is a RBBC moving forward, but I think Jones is best of the three Bucs' RBs to roster. WR Jamison Crowder - 46% owned in Yahoo, Crowder posted oddly, one of the best and worst statelines of Week 1. He had 14 receptions for 99 yards on 17 targets. Its clear he is Darnold's safety blanket and he is an huge asset in PPR leagues. View him as a WR3 in PPR leagues. With that being said, I would be looking to sell high on him, if you own him. He won't be feed that many targets again and Anderson will surely be involved more in future. Factor in Herndon is now 3 games away from playing and Jets have a bye week in week 4, Crowder is a solid Week 1 sell high option. John Ross III - Arguably the fastest person in the NFL, Ross finally broke out in a big way with 7/158/2TDs on 12 targets. While he should still be viewed as a boom-or-bust WR, Bengals offense clearly wanted to get him involved. Consider him a WR3/4 in all formats for as long as AJ Green is out. Rookie WR absolutely crushed it Week 1! Marquise Brown - Antonio Brown's cousin had a monster debut posting 4/147/2TDs on only 12 snaps! He was the first WR drafted this year and should be the most fantasy relevant WR for the Ravens. Definitely should be rostered in most leagues. However, view him more as a speedy, boom-or-bust WR, similar in the mold of Desean Jackson and Will Fuller. He is my favorite rookie WR pickup along with McLaurin and Hardman. Terry McLaurin - Another rookie speedster, McLaurin posted 5/125/1TD on 7 targets in his debut. Keenum also missed him on another potential 40+ yard TD, but nonetheless he made noise. He was hyped up by the coaching staff all training camp and he definitely lived up to those expectations Week 1. I think he is the WR to own for Redskins going forward, and I wouldn't blame you if you take him over Marquise Brown or Hardman. View him as a WR3/4 moving forward in all formats. Mecole Hardman - Didn't do anything in his debut, but Tyreek Hill's injury may force him to play a lot more than expected. Demarcus Robinson is still there as well, but this speedster is most similar to Tyreek Hill and Hardman has more upside. I believe he is a must-add due his upside of being a part in the best offense in football. DK Metcalf - 4/89 on 6 targets is great for a rookie debut. He had a few great contested catches and looks to be the part as Seattle's #2 WR. Seattle is still a run heavy team, but Metcalf definitely has some WR4 appeal in standard leagues. AJ Brown - Yet another rookie who posted 100 yards receiving. AJ Brown was a YAC monster in Week 1. I am still not sold on him not because of the talent, but because of his situation in the run first Titans offense and other passing options on this team. However, he is someone to definitely keep an eye on moving forward. Parris Campbell - Another rookie speedster. He didn't do much in his debut, but with the injury to Funchess he has a chance to be the #2 or #3 WR for that Colts team as season goes on. Keep an eye on him. TE T.J. Hockenson - Stud. Pick up if available.
  18. 27 points
    I watched a lot of it, some good deception with his stride/delivery, chart was pretty solid: FB- averaged 93 MPH, touched 95, great vert action with it, threw 29--18 for strikes with 12 swings but no whiffs SL- main secondary, sat 85 mph, minimal break actions on it but good spin, threw 38 and commanded it impeccably with 25 strikes--22 cuts and 6 whiffs CH- heavily used with a tad more horizontal break but similar on velo spectrum to SL at 85.5 MPH, threw 25--15 strikes with 10 hacks and 3 whiffs CU- much more horizontal movement than other stuff, lightly used at 79 mph, threw only 7--3 strikes with 3 swings and a whiff on it Overall was impressed with his mound presence and general stuff, release point was remarkably consistent and filled up the zone...many borderline calls did not fall his way but stayed together and was just plain solid.
  19. 26 points
    Crazy with no sports. Talked to my wife last night. Apparently works in HR. Nice girl.
  20. 26 points
    Zion after WEEKS of no practice in New Orleans
  21. 26 points
  22. 26 points
    to all the big tough guys downplaying this as "not so bad" ... AYFKM? do you have daughters? nieces? would you feel the same if it were them? unf'nbelievable stupidity on display here ... wow
  23. 26 points
  24. 26 points
    College stats Michael Jordan: 17.7 PTS, 5.0 RBS, 1.8 AST, 1.7 STL, 0.7 BLK Buddy Hield: 17.4 PTS, 5.0 RBS, 1.9 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.3 BLK Not saying Hield will be Michael Jordan, but his floor is Vince Carter
  25. 25 points
    My dream scenario is that Eli signs with the Chargers and Rivers with the Giants because I'm a big fan of dramatic irony.
  26. 25 points
    ya mean being up 28-3 in the third qtr was not a legit shot? 🤔
  27. 25 points
    If you don't pick up Boban after 1 game and then drop him after the next, are you really playing fantasy basketball?
  28. 25 points
  29. 25 points
    These threads and this forum is becoming a joke. Everyone moans and whines about everyone all the damn time. A bunch of box score watchers. 1) Collins looked great last year 2) Collins looked great last night. 90 yards on 12 touches. Yes please. Making people miss and trucking defenders. What fans of his are seeing is a good talent performing at a high level *when given the chance. 3) I was on the Ravens forum last night and everyone was bitching about Harbaugh and MMs use of Collins. Local media will put it to the coaching staff. Last year the Ravens went 5-2 down the stretch when Collins was getting 18 carries a game. 4) last year Collins had 7 and 9 carries respectively in Ravens first two games. Ravens won convincingly in the first game and got blown out in the second. Almost identical script this year as last. Coaches, if wanting to keep their job, will get back to what worked for them. Ball control through a ground game and tough defense. Having Flaccco throw 55 times is a guaranteed loss. 5) Everyone who is calling this guy a bust is a child with no successful experience playing fantasy football. It’s been two damn weeks. There is no preseason anymore. I wouldn’t seriously judge a players situation until week 4 these days. 6) Everyone who is calling this guy a bust... here are some names that Collins’ week 2 performance would have outscored in week 1: Mixon (week 2), Mcaffery, Hunt, Fournette, Freeman, Cook, and Of course, Bell. Are all these guys bums too? Jesus, this place.
  30. 25 points
  31. 25 points
  32. 24 points
    Giancarlo Stanton just sprained his wrist washing his hands
  33. 24 points
    15% concentrated power of will5% pleasure50% painAnd 100% reason to remember the name 🤣🤣🤣
  34. 24 points
    Jokic owners, I think we gucci
  35. 24 points
  36. 24 points
  37. 24 points
  38. 24 points
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  40. 24 points
    Packers fan here -- much of my Packers prognostication turns out to be wrong (or, at least, if correct, it takes some time to reveal it as such), but I think the threat of Aaron Jones making Jamaal Williams unstartable or at best a flex play is misguided. I'll try to keep this short: training camp is chock-full of coachspeak that means little to nothing. Mike McCarthy is not immune to this, but he is among the coaches who is least likely to heap praise on an undeserving player, and he'll even occasionally call out underperformers through the media. Aaron Rodgers fits this mold as well: when there's someone he sees performing at a high level, he lets the media know; when he sees players underperforming, he also (usually subtly) lets the media know as well. Brief examples: following Davante Adams' rookie year (mostly uneventful outside of a few big games late in the year as he spent the season as the #3 WR behind Jordy and Cobb), McCarthy called Adams the "MVP...[of the offseason]" and, from the linked article: Of course, in 2015 Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the preseason and the Adams hype-train took off, only to be derailed by a Week 1 ankle injury that hounded him all year, particularly brutal for a WR whose defining quality is his elite release skills from the LOS. He played at well less than 100% (limping off the field not uncommonly to get re-taped up), his ability to create separation suffered, he'd be inhuman if his confidence didn't waver, which directly or indirectly resulted in a lot of dropped passes, and many Packers fans and probably a good deal of analysts as well were ready to write him off as a bust already without taking these factors into account. Well, healthy Davante has had no problems with drops and has delivered on every ounce of promise, albeit more than a year later than hoped, that Rodgers and McCarthy saw in him. The only other "offseason MVP" McCarthy has publicly declared was DT Kenny Clark following his rookie season in 2016. Clark went on to finish 2017 as a top-10 DT (based on PFF) and one of five interior DL to finish top-21 in both run-stopping and pass-rushing (per PFF again). [Sidebar: I'm sure there are some quotes someone can dig up about McCarthy complimenting Brett Hundley and we can see how that turned out, though I personally don't believe we've heard the last of Hundley as a productive NFL QB...no doubt he performed worse than the Packers' coaching staff and I expected him to, and had more downs than ups (needing OT to beat the Browns and getting shut out by the Ravens and Vikings to name a few) but also showed some undeniable flashes (nearly beating the Steelers, showing the ability to perform in the clutch with his game-winning pass in OT against (sigh) the Browns, to name a couple) -- in short, considering some of the defenses he faced (7 of his 10 games where he got appreciable playing time were against top-10 defenses), an uneven performance like what he displayed in his first extended time as a starter isn't a death knell for his career; ask Goff, Peyton Manning, Marino, and many other. OK that was too long of a sidebar -- Hundley will be back, is my point, and it just might be as a starter somewhere.] The offseason has a lot of coachspeak, of course. And it's a lot more productive to listen to a coach speaking negatively about a player than it is to hear them say "best shape of their life" and other coaching platitudes. With that said, Mike McCarthy (and Aaron Rodgers) are generally much less susceptible to "coachspeak" or complimenting the play/development of players who are undeserving of it (e.g. Rodgers basically throwing shade at the three WRs the Packers drafted with how glowingly he complimented Jake Kumerow (and how he flat out mentioned the rookie WRs need to look at Kumerow to see how they need to perform in practice if they want to gain his trust, without which they will not succeed in the NFL). Back to coachspeak: you'll be hard-pressed to find a player McCarthy has been more vocally complimentary of this offseason than Williams. Quotes like (from here): As a side note, the only two other guys I've heard similar (though less extreme) statements about from McCarthy this offseason have been S Kentrell Brice and (***fantasy relevant***) Jimmy Graham (Rodgers has also been vocally complimentary of Graham; I can't recall to what extent this contrasts his public statements on Martellus Bennett last year or Jared Cook the year before (though Cook performed when healthy; and if you ask Bennett, he wasn't healthy the entire season) -- and Rodgers has notably been critical of the trio of WRs the Packers drafted (though complimentary of Geronimo Allison) so he too is not one to dish out compliments when he doesn't feel they're deserved). So back to Jamaal Williams. As you're probably aware, he's far-and-away the best pass-blocking RB on the Packers' roster -- completely different ballpark than Jones or TyMont. Fifth-best in the NFL, as a rookie, last year, according to SIS. I mean, just look at this identification and execution of a difficult block of a free blitzer coming from as far from where he's lined up as possible. And believe me, you cannot underestimate how important pass-blocking is to a team that: A) has very recently seen what happens when their QB gets injured, and will prioritize players/schemes to prevent that as much as possible in the future, and B) runs a complex offense that has lost some key veteran offensive line cogs in the past few seasons (Lang and Sitton) whose continuity (along with the rest of the O-line) is an undeniable advantage in pass protection effectiveness. So there's reason to believe Williams is the preferable RB for the Packers to have in the game on 3rd-down passing situations (if they have a RB on the field -- can split TyMont wide, or keep Marcedes Lewis in to block if they're finding their O-line giving up a lot of pressure). Two more final thoughts: 1. I think Williams' skills as a RB are dramatically underrated. When you watch Aaron Jones, he seems to "pop" -- shot out of a cannon, some would describe it; more "explosive," certainly. Reminds me of Christine Michael during his brief time with the Packers (haven't watched a lot of him elsewhere) -- goes from 0 to 60 by the time he's got the ball, but seems to lack the vision to be a successful NFL RB. I love what Jones offers as a change of pace due to that "thunder and lightning" element he offers along with Williams. But a recent podcast I heard talked about Jordan Howard and why he's been so successful despite lacking the breakaway speed or, at least to my knowledge, freakish athleticism that gives him the elusiveness of guys like Kareem Hunt (or Jamaal Charles in his prime). The analyst on the podcast talked about how Howard knows how to run in traffic -- surrounded by bodies, some of whom are your teammates, most of whom aren't, but knowing how to move your body in relation to these other massive bodies (subconsciously predicting THEIR movements, while simultaneously physically breaking imperfect tackle attempts, etc.). I don't know if "vision" is the right word because that implies identification of cutback lanes (which a RB can also possess, but is not exactly what I'm talking about), nor is necessarily "patience" -- "feel" seems like a more accurate word. Essentially, Howard can get 3, 4, 5 yards per carry nearly at will due to his skills in this "feel" attribute, and I think Williams possesses it as well. Of course, an open running lane doesn't prevent him from getting a whole lot more than 3-5 yards, but (without looking up the stats and just going by intuition here) I feel like Howard is a guy who doesn't run for negative yardage all that often, and I think Williams shares this "feel" attribute of Howard's running style (though he's got more going for him than just that). (Side note: Williams and Howard have identical 40 times: 4.59 sec). I love Aaron Jones and think he plays a role in this offense when he comes back (I'm more skeptical of TyMont -- I think he's going to be more of a hybrid RB/WR this year than true RB, but that's pure speculation). 2. And one final thing: back when the Packers were producing single fantasy-relevant RBs (essentially one or two years of Lacy), remember what was a HUGE part of their game? Here's a hint. TL;DR: Draft Jamaal Williams and don't worry about him -- he's gonna crush it unless he gets injured.
  41. 24 points
    I know it’s small sample and meaningless, but that 162 game average ???: .339/.431/1.002 114 runs /29 HR/76 RBI/ 10 SB (Side note my wife walked by and asked who I was typing heart eyes to. I told her it was a 19 year-old’s baseball stats. I think she wishes I was cheating on her).
  42. 24 points
    Acuna was one of the most talked about and anticipated players in the minors before his call-up, and somewhat strangely I haven’t heard a ton about him since. Thought I would give a quick update on what his numbers are looking like under the hood! He’s currently hitting .260/.324/.450 with 4 HRs and 2 SBs in 111 PAs. He’s supported that line with an 8.1% walk rate and a below average 27% K rate and overall he’s posted a 111 wRC+ to this point. The K rate stands out in a negative way, and I’ll go into more detail later but I just wanted to point out that his swinging-strike rate is actually about league-average so the high K rate isn’t a bat-to-ball skills issue. Taking a look at Acuna’s batted ball data, the first thing that stands out is that he’s hitting a very low amount of line-drives at just 11.3%. That’s odd because all last year over 3 levels in the minors, he hit line-drives at an above-average rate and that was good because line-drives are the least likely form of batted ball contact to be turned into an out. Among hitters with at least 100 PAs, that ranks 4th worst in the majors and that’s arguably holding his BAPIP and therefore batting average down somewhat despite posting a reasonable .328 BAPIP currently. His groundball rate is sitting at 47.9% right now which is the 63rd highest in the majors. His flyball rate is at 40.8% right now and that’s a good mark and should let him rack up HRs with his plus plus raw power. Acuna is fairly pull focused, but not overly with a decent 42.3% pull rate. What is interesting is that Acuna is posting by far the lowest opposite field contact rate of his career at 15.5% when he’s typically averaged between low-mid 30% opposite field contact in the minors. The lowered opposite field contact rate has resulted in a very high 42.3% centerfield contact rate which ranks as the 16th highest mark in the majors right now and tells me that he’s on time a lot at the plate and not late to fastballs. Looking at Acuna’s quality of contact stats, it’s where he really shines! His 43.7% Hard Contact rate ranks 35th in the majors among those with at least 100 PAs and ranks ahead of names like Yoan Moncada, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Gary Sanchez among others. He’s supporting that with a super impressive 93.8 MPH average exit velocity which ranks in a tie for 9th best in the majors with Giancarlo Stanton, Robinson Cano, and Matt Olson. According to Baseball Savant, his % of ball hit 95+ MPH is 52.1% and that ranks 14th best in the majors. He’s also barreling the ball at an above-average rate of 8.1% per PA which ranks 61st best in the majors. I also want to point out that his current 9.9% soft contact rate ranks as the 13th best in the majors right now. Essentially, when he makes contact, he hits it hard and that’s super impressive considering his lack of MLB experience and the fact that he can still add more strength as he matures more physically in the future. The power ceiling on him going forward is immense Let's take a look at Ronald Acuna’s plate discipline metrics: His out-of-zone swing% is 31.3% MLB average is 29.9% His zone swing % is 70.9% MLB average is 66.8% His overall swing % is 47.4% MLB average is 45.9% His out-of-zone contact % is 60.2% MLB average is 62.5% His zone contact% is 89.9% MLB average is 85.2% His overall contact rate is 78.3% MLB average is 76.8% His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone is 40.7% MLB average is 43.2% His swinging-strike% is 10.3% MLB average is 10.6% As you can see, Acuna expands his zone slightly more than league average, and that’s not a great thing as his out-of-zone contact skills are about 2.3% worse than league average right now. The good news is he’s aggressive on strikes which tells me that he recognizes them, and is 89.9% zone contact rate is well above-average which shows that he doesn’t miss too many of them! I find it interesting that he’s seeing fewer strikes than league average, that tells me that either MLB pitchers are scared of him and showing respect, and/or they are trying to get him to chase and get himself out. Regardless, his swinging-strike rate is about average (actually 0.3 above-average) and that’s really impressive for a guy with that little MLB experience and for a guy with that sort of bat speed. That bat control combined with the very impressive quality of contact numbers is what makes him special IMO! If he can tighten his strike zone further in the future and force pitchers to come to him, he will hit a lot of HRs!!!! Honestly, there’s a ton to like about Acuna and I’m so excited to see how he does ROS and in his career. He’s got a special combination of crazy bat speed that generates really impressive quality of contact numbers, and bat control. Add in plus speed on the bases and he’s a 5 category player in fantasy with a huge ceiling! He doesn’t have any platoon issues or anything, and Statcast thinks he’s underperformed some with an xAVG of .269 and xSLG of .526 compared to his real-life numbers of .260 and .450. I think we’ll likely see some ups and downs over the course of this season, but the raw skills are undeniable and not many guys in fantasy have a higher upside.
  43. 24 points
    Jose Berrios finally lived up to the hype and produced a very solid 3.89 ERA with an 8.59 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, and 0.93 HR/9 in 145.2 MLB innings in 2017. His rate stats look pretty strong at first glance, and that definitely helped support his FIP (3.84) and xFIP (4.51). Overall, a pretty impressive first full season for Berrios and it has me excited for what he could be in the future. Looking ahead to 2018, I noticed that Steamer is projecting a regression for Berrios with a 4.51 ERA, 8.53 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9, 4.66 FIP, and a 4.55 xFIP. So I did a deep dive to see what I could see in Berrios to help me project him going into next year. Looking at Berrios' stuff, a few things jump out. First, he has a great fastball that was worth 11.4 runs above-average, that ranked in a tie for 15th best in the majors with Dallas Keuchel among those that pitched at least 110 innings. That fastball ranked ahead of names like Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Marcus Stroman, and Luis Severino. Berrios also has a plus curveball that was worth 4.5 runs above-average, and that ranked 24th best in the majors among those who pitched at least 110 innings. That curveball ranked ahead of names like James Paxton and Mashiro Tanaka. Both offerings also come with a slightly above-average whiff rate of 11.75% for the fastball, and 14.19% for the curveball. Where Berrios had trouble last year was with his 3rd pitch, the changeup which was worth -4 runs above-average ranked in a tie for 94th best in baseball among those who pitched at least 110 innings with Jake Odorizzi. That changeup also had a below average whiff rate of 7.62. Brooks Baseball has Berrios throwing also throwing a sinker 26.1% of the time that elicited just a 5.56 whiff rate last year. Fangraphs shows it as a sinker curve and grades it positively, but pretty much purely on its groundball inducing nature (47.3% groundball rate on the sinker). Overall I see a guy with 2 great offerings, but he needs to improve his changeup to take a step forward. Lefties, in particular, are a problem without advancement in the changeup, and that showed with Berrios giving up a .257/.357/.427 (.341 wOBA) line against them compared to a .219/.275/.341 (.269 wOBA) line against righties. Let's take a look at some plate discipline numbers for Jose Berrios: Note that all of this data is among those pitchers who have pitched 110 innings last year. - Berrios' out-of-zone swing% of 30.5% ranked tied for 50th with Matt Boyd, Rick Porcello, Jason Hammel, Jordan Zimmerman. Ahead of names like Jameson Taillon, Yu Darvish, James Paxton, Robbie Ray - Berrios’ out-of-zone contact rate of 66.7% ranks in a tie for 70th with Jose Quintana and Jason Vargas. Ahead of names like Jake Arrieta, Taijuan Walker, and Michael Wacha - Berrios’ zone contact rate of 86.9% ranks 71st in the majors last season. Ahead of names like Sean Manaea, Taijuan Walker, Trevor Bauer, and Zach Godley. - Berrios’ overall contact rate of 79.3% ranks in a tie for 65th with Jharel Cotton. Ahead of names like Jeff Samardzija, Garrett Cole, Jon Gray, and Jake Arrieta. - Berrios’ Swinging strike rate of 9.4% ranks in a tier for 70th with Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz, Rick Porcello, and Michael Fulmer. Ahead of names like Trevor Bauer, John Gray, and Jake Arrieta. All of those are decent, but he hasn't shown a lot of top skills at this point and that highlights some lack of upside with Berrios imo. Now this was Berrios' first real extended period at the major league level so I'm willing to bet there's another level there, but he has a ways to go yet before reaching top 25 SP status. Under the hood, Berrios looks very average, and at this point it's hard to project him to return a ton of value at his current ADP (NFBC ADP of 113.88 which is the 27th SP going off the board). Long-term, I remain quite high on the 23-year old righty. He doesn’t bury himself with walks, he has a fastball capable of being the foundational pitch you need for consistent success in this league, a strong secondary offering in his curveball, and flashes a decent changeup (the changeup needs a lot of work though). I also like that he goes deep in games pretty often and has shown a strong ability to go through the order 3 times (.233/.297/.357 line against, good for a .286 wOBA). I also like that he threw 185.2 innings last year between AAA and the majors so he won't have any inning restrictions and looks to be a workhorse on a Twins team that is looking to compete which should help him rack up Wins and Quality Starts. He also pitches in a home park that suppresses left-handed power (Target field has a 0.84 HR rating for left-handed batters, 1.00 is neutral) and pitches in a division that will have some weak competition (Royals, Tigers, White Sox). For 2018, I will project a 3.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP with 195 K's and 15 wins in 204 innings.
  44. 24 points
    With football season in full swing, and an ever growing Forum population, we'd like to remind the posters that the Main Forum is for posting on discussion for general purposes. This means team-specific issues, rosterbating, cool-story-bro moments - while they mean a lot to the poster posting - they don't fit the bill. There are threads for celebration, venting, cool-story-bro posts - and there is a separate Forum to post roster or team/league-specific issues - the Assistant Coach (AC) Forum. As RW Forums posting volume has increased, so has the # of these types of posts. While it's understandable if it's happened unintentionally - it's also becoming clear the Main Forum is becoming overrun with AC posts, and the above types of posts which are hijacking player discussion. Again, if it's someone learning for the first time, or inadvertent, we get that - but too many veterans are contributing to the problem. We cannot stress this enough, this problem tends to grow exponentially because too many people see others doing it and think it's okay, but this only worsens the issue. Lead by example and use the appropriate threads! The Main Forum is to help promote general fantasy discussion that's usable for the entire community. To keep this focus, for those who can't stop - harsher penalties, including temporary disabling of posting privileges (or longer in the case of repeat offenders following prior penalties) . Hopefully, this won't be necessary - but as all posters agree to abide by the CoC and Posting Rules when they join, notice that AC posting will need to be done in the AC Forum is clearly necessary. Given that the rules are well-known to returning members, we trust this reminder will help returning members keep Main Forum discussion for the community at large and away from AC/team content, and help new members avoid future problems as well. Also, for the newest members: PROBATIONARY MEMBERS - for those of you who have just joined, welcome! While you are in a probationary status, please note two important differences from other members. First, you can't send PM's or receive PM's until you move up to regular member (10+ posts). Secondly, as of 2013, Probationary Members can reply to exisiting threads, but can't create new threads in the following Forums: Main Football Forum (Fantasy Football Talk) IDP Football Forum (IDP Forum) Main Baseball Forum (Fantasy Baseball Talk) MILB Baseball Forum (MILB Forum) Main Basketball Forum (Fantasy Basketball Talk) Please note that probationary members can still create threads in the other Forums, and can reply to existing threads in the above Forums. This will allow probationary members to get their feet wet in the Main Forums, and also help new members avoid posting Assistant Coach / Bench Coach threads in the wrong Forum. As always, take a moment to read the RW Baseball Forum Posting Rules, RW Football Forum Posting Guidelines and RW Basketball Forum Posting Guidelines as this will cover all the areas of posting for RW members. Welcome aboard!
  45. 23 points
    While I generally don’t mind colorful commentary, this isn’t the place for it. If you want to drop condolences, go for it. If you have something disrespectful to say, don’t say it here. Have no issue dropping the hammer from this point on.
  46. 23 points
    High stakes leagues have the same losers, just with more money.
  47. 23 points
  48. 23 points