GamblorLA

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GamblorLA last won the day on March 29

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  1. One of those things that would be funny to explain to an alien. You make $12 million a year due to your incredible abilities and rare work ethic. Your partner would work in retail or maybe in an office if not for meeting you but because she did meet you she just chills in a mansion or does whatever she wants and never works a day in her life. She calls all the shots and would make your life hell if you spent a few months on the road making money for her because that would mean she was being treated unfairly. But I know all to well, that's often part of being human. (except the 12 million part). Yeah, if they have to be away from their families, that's a much more legitimate problem. I think the majority of guys would be willing to do it. They get to play, make money, and make it happen for their teammates and fans. But there would be enough who were too selfish or have rotten wives. A few might have a more legitimate reason, say a parent dying of cancer, but that would only be a handful. I've said all along, if the overall conditions don't improve chances are very slim. Bubble baseball world would be hard. I just think if life returns much of the way to normal, they'll do their best to get it done and very well might. Based on some posts here, a lot of experts thing that the 18 month vaccine prediction is too optimistic. It'll be interesting (and horrible) to see what happens if corona is just a fact of life for the next 4 years or something.
  2. BTW, I am not a doctor. However, I played poker with a doctor when this was just a news story and we were talking about it. He said that for about 2 weeks you are talking about a viral infection and anti-biotics won't work. However, after that period you might have a secondary infection which IS bacterial and antibiotics might then be appropriate. Filed that advice away for the future.
  3. That sucks man. I'm sure we're all rooting for you.
  4. There are a lot of people saying different things and I'm not trying to pick on anyone individually. There are some real concerns and, again, it's a range of possibilities for where things are in general in 2-3 months. However, saying an otherwise viable MLB season, a multi-billion dollar operation, will shut down because it will be hot outside, or because it will be hard to replace injured players or because it will be too hard to travel to Arizona and stuff like that is almost insanely pessimistic and not really a plain observation of fact at all. As is, "it's just baseball and it doesn't matter at times like these." Like, bad things exist so good things shouldn't exist. Certainly the general practice of trying to think of problems instead of trying to think of solutions is pessimistic. It's possible that in 2 months time, we'll all be wearing hockey masks and mowhawks and our HOAs have morphed into battling principalities headed by brutal warlords. That's pessimistic. Maybe an quirky little alien will land and cure all disease. Optimistic. I really don't know where it's headed in general terms. But it's quite clear that the UFC, baseball here and elsewhere, the NBA and big soccer clubs are all trying to figure out how to make it work if the overall picture allows it, not searching for reasons to quit because they "know" things will be very bad in 2 months. IMO, the former is an approach that works best with reality and in that sense, is more realistic. Try your best. Maybe it works maybe it doesn't. That's how you wind up owning a team or playing in the league to begin with. Something I wish I'd figured out at a younger age, myself.
  5. Nice post. I'm not saying this as an insult and I hope I don't sound self righteous, but I really hope some of you guys aren't this negative in your thinking in general. Since we're all armchair epidemiologists, I'm tempted to be an armchair shrink maybe suggest that some of you start considering the possibility of clinical depression. It's no good to go through life constantly worried about what could go wrong and looking for flaws and problems. A lot of bad stuff happens no matter what. Everyone fails a bunch. And not long from now we'll all be in the grave. Worry and constant pessimism won't change that, but they will prevent you from tasting the good things and getting the most out of your time here.
  6. I'm trying to work out the pitching thing. I'm still drafting a bunch of best ball leagues because I enjoy it even if the season doesn't go, so I'm looking at it through that lens a little. In a condensed season, with fewer days off and more double headers, I think the bottom line is we will see quite a few innings pitched by guys who might normally be in the minors or on the fringe of the roster or rotation. So our stars pitch a lower % of all innings. Maybe we'll see more position players pitching in blow outs. My non-expert assumption is that most fantasy relevant pitchers are close to optimized in terms of their innings per/week and innings per/year. Those numbers shouldn't really change much. Basically a guy can have x number of innings or outings per week, whether the team plays 2 games or 20. With lack of preparation, it might be fewer innings early. Maybe, knowing the season long total will be lower, the weekly total can go up a little once everyone is locked in, but I wouldn't expect it to change dramatically. From a season long perspective, guys who crap out or get cut off obviously go up in value, as many have observed. Chris Paddack or McCullers. But I don't think the difference between them and a bigger innings eater is erased. IP/start matters more than IP for a year now. A guy who often goes 7-9 innings is still worth a lot more than a guy who goes 5-6. A guy who usually makes 32 starts vs a guy who makes 28 is complicated. If it's because the total number of innings/starts is capped or because they usually flag near the end of the season, then that guy should benefit. If it is because the player is injury prone or takes time off throughout the season I think they benefit less. So, I'd expect Paddack to benefit though they'll still probably use SOME caution. I'd expect a guy like Kershaw or Stras benefits a little but, but not as much. I guess they'd still take time off due to a combination of being injury prone and maybe having a bit more of a big picture philosophy. I figure guys in 5th/6th rotation spots win. Your 6th starters should get a few extra starts and your 5th starters are less likely to lose their spots. I have some concern that the 5th starter gets a bit diluted as the back of the rotation, long relief and openers get all mixed together into a stew. But, ultimately, there is going to be a scarcity of mediocre innings pitched, so guys who can do that should be in business. Do closers move up? I think a lot of the elite closers are in the same boat as SPs in that their clubs already use them about as much as they can get away with. What I think happens with closers is that they flatten the curve. Every team is going to see more save opportunities per week. So your Osuna's and Chapmans should do a little better relative to starters because their plates will always be full. But at the same time, sometimes a little extra grub is going to fall off that plate. Meaning, there will be times where they've just been used too much and the save goes to someone else. The biggest beneficiaries in all of this will be closers on bad teams. They will gain relative to starters because they will have more weeks with full opportunities. They will gain relative to closers on good teams, because those guys will get a lower % of their teams saves. Of course, closers on bad teams are often a pain because either 1) they are bad themselves or 2) if they are good, they get traded to be set up men, but that's always true. In season long roto, I think your Ian Kennedy types are probably going to gain a lot of value. It's still hard in best ball because when they lose their closer gigs, they are complete dead spots on your roster when even a guy like John Lester or Mike Leake will occasionally have a good start. One more reason I'd love the season to go off. Trying to adjust to a shakeup makes playing a lot more fun.
  7. Where there's a will and access to private islands, there's a way.
  8. IDK, what if there's a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan? What if another virus comes? What if there's a terrorist attack? Will there be tax issues? You can poke holes in stuff and worry about what ifs all day. But it might be pretty darn safe to play baseball with a mask on and social distancing. That's a what if too. Might not be, but it might be. Maybe 75% of people will have already been exposed. Maybe not. If it's really hot, maybe use swamp coolers and play at morning and night. Here in Vegas, the college football team practices when it's well over 100. Probably one reason they can't recruit, lol. Oh yeah, we also have a AAA team here that plays in the summer with no AC on the field, at least at the old stadium. College teams also play baseball. Could be an issue, but there are ways to deal with it. I just don't understand acting like we're talking about colonizing mars here. It's just baseball. If a bunch of players don't want to play, there won't be a season. If this is really terrible, that's probably what will happen. If a couple months from now, you can like, go out wearing a mask and just not sit next to anyone, then I don't know why you'd want to do that but not be on TV playing a game you love making millions.
  9. That's an issue. But I think it's also an example of excessively negative thinking. I mean, there was an NHL game this year where they had the zamboni driver finish the game. A former minor leaguer in his 40s. He got the win too! Very smart, driven people with billions at stake aren't going to be like, "crap, we need minor leaguers" and just give up. There are any number of ways they could have some live bodies available. Most obvious is expand rosters. Could have an NFL style practice squad of 10 guys who live in AZ and stay in shape. etc.
  10. It's certainly true that MLB players are motivated by carrot and home depot workers are motivated by stick. When most people were blowing this off, I made the same point, that most of these guys are set for life and don't NEED to do anything and wouldn't be pressured into playing. On the other hand, I think most of them really want to. Think about fighters and NFL players. I'll take my chances with covid over CTE. EASY choice. These NFL players know they are going to be 85 year old men in daily pain at age 45. Most keep playing long after they are set financially. Different sport I know. But they got here because they have a great drive and because being a professional athlete is wonderful. So, they won't be strongarmed into playing, but they will want to play and look for ways to make it work. I know it's a bit more complicated than just getting some guys on the field, but it's not a space shuttle launch either. I mean, we're just a bunch of dopes posting on an FBB message board and we've already come up with some good ideas, like using the front rows instead of the dug outs to keep a distance. Hell, I don't see why you couldn't play baseball in a mask and Chris Sabo goggles. I guess the Korean players were practicing with masks. Maybe that would make it nearly risk free. Maybe not. I don't have any real insight into how bad the pandemic will be. I know some healthy young people have died. Anecdotal evidence tells us these aren't all obese/smokers. It's also an excellent point by big bat theory that a pro athlete doesn't need long term lung damage . Time will tell on these issues. Exactly how risky is it for a healthy young person? Will that malaria thing work? How many people will have been exposed in 2 months, and will they be basically in the clear? If you take the right precautions, will an activity like baseball be nearly risk free or Russian roulette? But my position is that, overall, baseball is MORE likely than some random business or activity to come back while many act like it's less. They make so much money with so few people compared to, idk, a landscaping business or an auto shop or anything else. That's not just a matter of financial motivation, it means they have the resources to take elaborate precautions and still make a huge profit. And 99% of players and owners love what they do and are driven people. And lastly, it's about relative risk. If the virus is just a minor threat (starts singing punk song) but most people are doing things like going to stores and seeing movies, it would be silly not to make millions of dollars as a famous baseball player. It will probably be lower risk than going to the store. So if you're doing one, why not the other? So if life is anything like normal, I think we see baseball. If we don't see baseball, I think that means things will be very bad overall.
  11. I was saying corona could mess up baseball from the beginning. But at the same time, I think extreme/blind pessimism is just as inaccurate as extreme/blind optimism. Two things are consistently overlooked here. 1) We're not talking about getting a Chuck E. Cheese up and running. Many of these players make in a game what average people make in a year (and have a limited time to do so). The resources and incentives to make it happen are probably greater than any other business. And keep in mind, many businesses are up and running right now and will continue to be, barring a catastrophic scenario. Why would my nearest Home Depot, which generates maybe a few hundred bucks per day per worker find a way to make it work, but it is absolutely inconceivable that MLB, which generates tens of thousands per day per worker, could find a way to make it work? Maybe not exactly perfectly with every single player getting there. Still, they'll look for reasons to make it work, not look for reasons to give up. I'll put it this way. If I offered everyone in this thread $1 million to find a way to be in Arizona by June 1, and whatever funding they needed, I bet almost all of them would do it. They wouldn't just say, "airports are risky" and quit after 3 seconds of thought. 2) This virus doesn't turn anyone who comes within 200 feet of it into a pod person. It really sucks. It's not "just the flu." But the other extreme is not true either. A fit 28 year old man doesn't really need to live in all consuming terror of the virus, even though it is one of many things in the world that COULD harm him. It doesn't have to be the case that absolutely nobody is ever exposed to it. It can be dealt with and managed, like many other risks in life. Plus, exposure is likely at some point anyway. A great many players and personel will already have been exposed in a couple months and hopefully will have the testing to know which. We will know a lot more about the virus and possibly how to treat it. Hopefully, our capacity for dealing with it will be better. Our goals, collectively and individually are to manage this problem, not avoid it completely because that can't be done. Of course none of us know how all this will unfold regarding baseball or in general. There is a range of possibilities including catastrophe. But, while I completely favor the current shut downs and taking this thing seriously, I don't buy the idea that life as we know it must be completely shut down until there is no danger whatsoever. Any more than I buy the idea that we should forget about civil liberties because terrorism and drug cartels exist.
  12. I'd rather watch that than a random regular season NBA game ainec. Also should have a really cool vibe and, I'm assuming, raise a good chunk of change. Reminds me of this.
  13. Interesting. This is the sort of thing I've been expecting. If for no other reason, there is just too much money on the table for the entire sports industry to just insta-quit until a vaccine is discovered. There are a lot of smart creative people out there and they'll find ways to make stuff happen.
  14. If it comes to that, you should strongly consider reaching out to a reporter or someone like that imo.