Ben Edelman

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About Ben Edelman

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  1. So you have a choice between (let's say) Machado $46 and Sandy Alcantara $1, or Didi $16 and Kershaw/Nola/Strasburg $31, or something like that. I'd take the latter any day of the week.
  2. I'm also in an NL-only 12x23 league. No way I could justify Machado at that price. You already have Rosario at SS and Moose at 2B, so it's not like you are in desperation to keep a third MI. I would much rather have Yadi $11 at a thin position (I assume you carry two catchers) than get stuck with Curt Casali or Jacob Stallings. On the extensions, I play more conservative. Buehler and Castillo are great, but 3-4 years from now? Will both of them have Tommy John or Thoracic Outlet Syndrome? Who knows with young pitchers. You should definitely extend, but don't price out all the future profit. And since you are in win-now mode, don't rob too much from your present-year budget. I would go $11 for two years on Castillo, and $13 for three years on Buehler, no more. FWIW, I have a $10 Acuna, and I am only going to go $20 for three years on him. I could go $25 for four years, but that really prices out the profit. Let's say Acuna is a $50 player, which is about the highest any player ever goes for in our league: Acuna at $25 for four years is $25 profit (50-25 = 25) per year, times four years = $100 profit Acuna at $20 for three years is $30 profit (50-20 = 30) per year, times three years = $90 profit You don't have to put much of a discount / injury risk factor at all to decide that $90 profit over three years is better than $100 over four years.
  3. And lots of strategies can work. One owner in my league never spends more than 12% of his budget on a single player. Another owner routinely plays studs-and-scrubs, spending big on a few players and then finding cheap bottom-tier guys to fill out his roster. Both of those owners have won multiple times.
  4. What. The. F***. Does he want to be the next Jeff Kent? https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ftw/2020/02/23/madison-bumgarner-secretly-competing-in-rodeos-under-fake-name/41252731/
  5. Don't overthink this one. Definitely keep Lindor. There is a very small chance that you might pick up Trea/Story at the 10/11 (that's too high for Tatis, IMO). Any other two players -- Nolan/Scherzer, or Bregman/Verlander -- and you will be just fine.
  6. With 25+ years playing NL-only auction, the one thing I can say with certainty is that there is no certainty. Most leagues I have observed and been in run 60-65% hitting and 35-40% pitching. The main reasons for the imbalance are a) Unpredictability of pitchers, and b) Availability of freely-available pitching talent at the end of the draft. Since roti points are 50/50 I tend to lean closer to a 58/42 split, but it really varies from year to year. I do find my team has a competitive advantage in SP most years. That said, you need to have a going-in hypothesis about where the talent is and where you thing you can go cheap. You can usually get endgame closers like Hector Neris on the cheap. You can usually get fourth and fifth starters dirt cheap IF you do your homework on Dinelson Lamet or Mike Soroka. On the other hand, if you haven't really done deep research on those lower-tier pitchers, you might just want to pony up for Cole, deGrom and Hader in order to lock in some certainty. Whatever plan you have going in, be prepared to deviate. If Kershaw is about to go stupidly cheap in your draft, snap him up. If you have your heart set on Chris Paddack but he ends up going for $35, you have to be prepared to let him go. Auction drafts have nearly infinite flexibility, which means you need to have plans and backup plans and on-the-fly adjustments. So yes, plan. Yes, have a budget in mind. And yes, deviate from it when appropriate in real-time. And that's the fun!
  7. Another save opportunity tonight. Throws 20 pitches. 16 of them strikes, 10 of those swinging. Punches out three batters on swinging strikeouts. And gives up the game-tying home run. So absurd, yet so predictable.
  8. Wow ... Vlad, Eloy, Franco and Adell in that same lineup through approximately 2040? That's an amazing team. Seems to me you should be a 2020 contender (just like the 2018 Braves) and be ready to move some of your deeper farm players for win-now talent. I just traded Monte Harrison for a six-week rental on Ryu, for example.
  9. Bellinger, Bregman, Turner, Cole, Buehler, Alvarez are the options. Nobody else merits consideration. Seems to me it comes down in the end to Turner vs. Alvarez and Cole vs. Buehler. With SB so scarce I would go Turner, and based on track record I would go Cole. But man it would sting to have to drop Buehler.
  10. No way. I don't think I'd trade Cruz for Crouse straight up given the depth of your rosters. The 4th for 9th swap makes it a no-brainer decline.
  11. Only if Minor gives you a good shot to win the league this year. If you are sitting in 4th place or lower, it's a No.
  12. Acuna has 1.5 years of being a top-5 fantasy player. Tatis has 0.5 years. Add in ballpark and lineup benefits, and it easily goes towards Acuna.
  13. Tough one, but I'll go with track record, lineup and ballpark and say Harper. And if you are going to mention age, Harper is only two years older than Alonso, so that's not a significant factor. And Alonso's 33% HR/FB rate has to come down, right? It's possible Alonso is the next McGwire, but I wouldn't be putting my money on that bet *quite* yet.
  14. The interesting thing about the best GB pitchers is that many of them just pitch to contact and have terrible K rates (Dakota Hudson, Brett Anderson). The ones that have really good careers can combine a 60% GB rate with a solid K rate of 7.0/9 or more. Keuchel, Webb, Stroman fall into that category. In fact, those three pitchers have exceptionally similar career profiles, especially when you adjust for today's high-offense environment. Webb is on the higher end of that group, but not by much. One thing I don't understand about Quantrill is how he could consistently post .330 BABIP in the minors. His stuff suggests he should be better than that.
  15. Whoa, Nellie. Webb was one of the best ground ball pitchers in MLB history with an insane 64% career rate. By comparison, Dakota Hudson leads MLB with a 57% GB rate this year. Quantrill is in the mid-40s. He's a solid little pitcher, probably league-average if all goes well, and I'm happy to own him. But Brandon Webb he ain't. I would love to see how Webb would fare in today's launch-angle world.