Both home teams are -7.5 according to a line I've used all season, so I imagine most lines are in the -6.5 to -8 or so range.
Both of these matchups are rematches - TEN surprised KC at home wining 35-32 in Week 10. SF flattened GB 37-8 at home in Week 12. I think both matchups this week will be similar:
TEN +7.5 (KC wins): Both catalysts in week 10 will be "catalyzing" again tomorrow imo. Mahomes had a trademark monster game (446 total yards (0 rushing BTW)/3 TDS). Likewise Henry (191 (3 rec)/2). Tannehill had minimal involvement but was very efficient (218 (37 rushing)/2 completing 13 of 18).
KC obviously has more firepower at WR and that unit could be the reason I'm wrong and KC blows this open - Tyreek went 160 (3 rushing)/1 while Hardman caught his only ball for a 63 yard TD. Or Kelce of course could go ham like he did last week - I think it's unlikely, but do like him to have a similar game to last time (75/1). AND we're in Arrowhead this time. But no team is better in the NFL at long, time-consuming and productive drives than the Titans. Nothing I've seen from this Chiefs D makes me think they can stop Henry let alone slow him down. For that reason I'll take the 7.5 here. I do believe KC advances to the SB however; with their superior firepower that appears when needed + the friendly confines, they will finally get Reid back in the SB.
SF - 7.5: GB had no answers for the SF D in this game - and they were coming off a bye in Week 12. Rodgers had one of many pedestrian lines of his 2019 that afternoon (127 (13 rushing)/1 + 1 lost fumble). His lone touchdown came on a 2 yard TD to Adams, who "led" GB with 43 yards receiving that day. Jamal Williams was the 2nd-"leading" receiver with 35 yards but the bigger story is he also "led" the Packers with 45 yards on 11 carries, while Jones got less with more carries (13) - 38 yards.
Understandably the SF offense didn't have to do much but they went ahead and did it anyway, with the production very spread out. Among Garoppolo (252/2), Mostert (67/1), Coleman (49/1), Kittle (129/1) and Samuel (50/1) only Garoppolo had more than one TD in his Brady-like performance (14-20, 0 INT, 145.8 QBR).
In my opinion not much has changed since week 12 for either of these teams - and that's bad news for the Packers. Between SF's pass rush (5 sacks in week 12) and their experienced secondary I'm happy to only give up 7.5.
Super Bowl = KC v SF. That would a a damn good matchup and would need the two weeks to come up with a solid prediction on that one.