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  1. I think we might have to just agree to disagree here, just like phillyphan21 and I did last spring about Nola. I respect your viewpoint and you do do a good job making your argument, but our key point of disagreement is simply I don't think Nola is as good of a pitcher as you do. Maybe I'll be totally wrong and he'll have a year like in 2018, but if I have to pay a top 50 pick for him, I'm going to pass. One thing I just want to clarify though: I was never claiming that Gray or Folty should be taken ahead of Nola. I merely mentioned them for the numbers that the #13 ranked SP had the past two years. If you want me to compare Nola to a pitcher going later in drafts than him, let me ask you this: Who would you rather have at their ADP? Aaron Nola in the early 5th or Zack Greinke in the late 7th?
  2. I agree that Sonny Gray is overvalued this year. However, my point had nothing to do with Sonny Gray specifically, and was merely about the level of production Nola would need to live up his SP13 ADP. In 2018, the 13th overall ranked SP Mike Foltynewicz posted a 2.85 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, almost identical numbers to Gray last year. Nola's only had one year in his career where he's been even remotely close to those numbers. Totally agree with you that it was foolish Nola buying Nola as SP1 last year (in fact, I posted on his forum page last spring, that I thought he was the most overranked player/pitcher in baseball), but the problem is his ADP hasn't really dropped much this year. Also his peripherals all pretty much declined noticeably last year following 3 years of almost identical peripherals, so his disappointing season last year wasn't all due to luck reversal either.
  3. Last year's #13th ranked SP Sonny Gray had a 2.87 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Nola is going to have to do a heck of a lot better than getting back to his career averages (career 3.49 ERA and 1.17 WHIP) to justify that ranking. He'd likely have to split the difference between his career averages and his 2018 season. Keep in mind that Nola has never had an ERA under 3.50 in any season other than 2018 and he had extraordinary luck that year (with very little improvement in his peripherals in 2018 compared to 2016 and 2017). Sure, I agree. The problem is that he's currently going as the #13 SP in Yahoo. I'll pass at that price.
  4. I just saw Nola's O-Rank in Yahoo is #48. He's only going about 15 picks later than he did last year so we're not getting much of a discount following last year. Even if you dismiss his career worst peripherals across the board last year and assume he's going to return to his career norm 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, you're not making much of a profit at that ADP. Maybe he's not quite as overvalued as he was last year coming off of a very lucky 2018 season, but I'm likely going to be avoiding again unless he really falls. For what it's worth, I don't actually hate Nola. In fact, he was one of my top sleepers in 2017 when Philadelphia wasn't getting much national hype back then and Nola was going in the late rounds even though his peripherals in 2016 (his peripherals in 2016 were WAY better than his peripherals last year) pointed that he was a solid pitcher who had gotten really unlucky in 2016. These last two years though, I've just felt his ADP's gotten way too high for a pitcher who is a 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP caliber (and whose peripherals were career-worst almost across the board last year).
  5. Never meant to imply that ranking 15th was elite. It's arbitrary how you want to define "elite", but personally I wouldn't call ranking between 15th and 20th the past few years as being elite in Ks. Nola typically averages 9-10 K/9 per season, which is certainly good. However pitchers like Scherzer or Cole average 3 K/9 higher than Nola, so I'd wouldn't lump Nola into the same elite category as them.
  6. Yeah, I would call that as being good in strikeouts, not elite. Last year, it looks like he was 20th among qualified SPs in K/9.
  7. Honestly, if anything, Nola was lucky that his ERA wasn't worse than 3.87. His FIP was 4.03, his xFIP was 3.82, his SIERA was 4.14, and he posted career worsts in BB/9 and HR/9. In 2016 Nola was very unlucky, but I'm not buying that he was unlucky last year.
  8. Well, if you take away any pitcher's worst two months, then his numbers are going to look a lot better. I tend not to be willing to totally discard months of stats unless a player was playing through an injury or something. Also, I looked it up on Fangraphs and during that stretch from May through August, Nola's FIP was 3.55 and his xFIP was 3.66,1 So it looks like he was pretty lucky with ERA from May through August and unlucky in April and September. Any way I look at Nola's peripherals last year, it just seems to me like he took a big step back last year following 3 years of nearly identical peripherals.
  9. Totally agree with you that 2018 was a clear outlier. I couldn't believe he was being drafted last year as if he was going to repeat 2018 considering his peripherals in 2018 indicated little-to-no improvement and he's never posted an ERA under 3.50 in any other season. If you are projecting Nola to be a mid 3 ERA and good WHIP guy, then I guess you are projecting Nola to bounce back and pitch more like he did from 2016 to 2018 (where his peripherals were practically identical all 3 years despite varying degrees of luck in ERA) than he did last year. Personally I'm on the fence about this because Nola's peripherals declined in pretty much every category last year. He's still young enough where you can argue he's too young to be declining, but I still find it a bit concerning. Also, maybe this is nitpicking, but I'd call Nola a good K pitcher, not an elite K pitcher. Has he ever finished in the top 15 in K/9 in any season?
  10. Definitely a great value right now. Highly doubt that ADP lasts though.
  11. Totally agree with you. Bregman was a fade for me even before this cheating scandal came out. One thing I will say is that I'm not convinced that the Astros will not try to find a new way to cheat. Look at the Patriots; getting caught never stopped them. In this case, all the Astros players got off totally free too. Do you really think the threat of the new manager and new GM also getting fired is going to stop the players?
  12. I posted on Aaron Nola's 2019 outlook page last spring that I thought Nola was the most overvalued (relative to ADP) fantasy player last year, but Nola STILL managed to do significantly worse last year than I was predicting. Nola was being priced last year as if he was going to repeat or come close his 2018 numbers (2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). Considering Nola's advanced stats were basically identical in 2018 compared to in 2016 and 2017, I felt his 2018 season was a total fluke and that he would regress all the back to his 2017 and his career stats (~3.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP), which would have been still good numbers but nowhere near enough to justify his 3rd round ADP. Instead Nola totally bombed to the tune of 3.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Unfortunately Nola's terrible (relative to ADP) season was not unlucky but rather was completely supported under the hood: 4.03 FIP, 3.82 xFIP (both career worsts). His walk rate and HR rate were also career worsts. Other than his incredible luck in 2018, there's absolutely nothing elite about Aaron Nola and there never has been (he's never once posted a FIP or xFIP under 3), but prior to last year Nola used to be a solid 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP caliber pitcher. My question is should Nola be drafted this year as if he's going to get back to that 3.50/1.20 caliber pitcher? Or should expectations be dialed back to high 3s ERA and 1.25 WHIP? It's concerning to me that he had career worst peripherals across almost every category last year, after posting nearly identical peripherals from 2016-2018.
  13. Very well put. As others said at the beginning of the thread, 2018 will almost certainly go down as his career-best season. I was probably a little more pessimistic about Nola than most people, as I thought he would regress most of the way to his 2017 level (I was predicting a 3.3-3.5 ERA and a 1.15-1.2 WHIP) rather than split the difference between 2017 and 2018. However, I never envisioned Nola would be so significantly worse than his 2017 level and his career averages. After a horrible first two and a half months, Nola did get it together from mid-June to end of August, then totally collapsed in September.
  14. Well, there's obviously people that disagree with me, which is why there's been a discussion. I said at the beginning of the year that I thought Nola was overvalued given his 3rd round ADP coming off of last year's fortunate .251 BAPIP. As I said at the beginning of the year, I thought he would regress to the 3.30-3.50 ERA and 1.15-1.20 WHIP range. Obviously I wasn't right about Nola either and he's regressed a lot more than that. The difference between Nola and Gerrit Cole who had the same ADP has been staggering
  15. J-Ram's overall numbers before he got hurt certainly didn't live up to his first round ADP either.