kp96

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kp96 last won the day on August 20 2018

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  1. Bell is not a direct replacement for Williams. He will definitely consume all the playing time that Darrel and Darwin had, but he will do more. He's going to cut into CEH's work unless he really flops. This is a really nice get for the Chiefs, assuming Bell is not completely washed up. He gives them another threat out of the backfield, much much better injury protection, and at a minimum, a premium 3rd down back who is maybe a bigger threat as a receiver than as a runner. Between the 20's, he should get some opportunity too. IMO, it's not going to be that well defined either. I think both backs will be in there in all situations, rather than "he's the 3rd down back or GLB". But they will probably lean more on Bell on 3rd downs, for example. The best parallel would be Chubb / Hunt, with CEH = Chubb to start. CEH should get more carries and Bell should get more receiving opportunities. From there, it will be about performance.
  2. See, that's where perception and reality are not aligning. He's 2nd in the league in rushing at a 4.7 ypc clip. That's absolutely not middling, it is excellent. The reason people think it is middling is that his fantasy production isn't great because of the lack of touchdowns. To me and you...yes, he has been disappointing, especially with all the opportunity. But to an NFL coach who doesn't give a rats a** who gets in the endzone as long as the offense is humming, he has been everything they could hope for. I do agree he's not a no doubt RB1, especially not now. He is not CMC, Saquon, Zeke. Bell is absolutely a threat to him and his production. But what I think is BS is the narrative that "he hasn't been good". If you're saying "he hasn't been good in fantasy", that's a different argument because you need your player to score (especially your first rounder). But this discussion is about his playing time and how much impact Bell will have. Reid wants the offense to move, and he will play the guy that gets yardage. CEH has done that very well and Bell will not be walking into a situation where he just gets carries because he's got a big name. Reid doesn't care...he wants to win games so Bell better do way better than his 4.2 ypc career average. The goal line is where I think Bell poses the biggest immediate threat to CEH, but other than that, I fail to see how CEH won't be getting plenty of work.
  3. Maybe the outliers are the bad games where he has had no TD luck? If you want to bash him that's fine, but he is 2nd in the league in rushing. That's the fact.
  4. Yes we don't know, I'm just saying what, to me, seems logical. It's an area where Bell can contribute right away and is likely better than CEH at. It would be terrible for CEH fantasy owners, but a positive for the KC Chiefs. The money thing is overblown. Usually not a factor at all. Best player plays. Coaches only care about winning games.
  5. If I'm Andy Reid, I put Bell in the goal line packages sooner rather than later. It remains to be seen how much work Bell will get between the 20's, but it just makes too much sense not to try Bell at the goal line. He is bigger than CEH and has a lot more experience than CEH in that situation. CEH has been lackluster at best there, despite getting the opportunities. You can blame the Oline, but this is certainly one area that I would try Bell if I were the coach.
  6. The issue is that it looks like KC's preferred goal line attack is to spread and let Mahomes either find a guy or run it in. I see that far more than the jumbo package. Part of that has to be because CEH is small and the other backs just aren't very good down there. That could change when Bell is there. I look at it this way...CEH isn't punching it in from the goal line through 6 games but is still pretty good. He'll have to score from long distance but his TD luck has been horrible. Hopefully whatever he is losing in yardage to Bell, he will make up for with some TD regression, because it has been ridiculous how unlucky he has been with TDs. He's had more called back than he has scored.
  7. Unfortunately, the most likely outcome here is that health will come into play. Knock on wood, but it's likely someone here is gonna sprain an ankle or something. Especially this year. I have a hard time believing that neither CEH or Bell will pick up some sort of ding, which will influence playing time. It came into play last year with Shady vs. Damien, it happened this year with Rojo vs. Fournette, etc. Heck, even Kareem Hunt / Nick Chubb has been impacted. Probably the smartest play is to try to get both these guys on your team, if you can do so at a reasonable price, Easier said than done though. Judging by these boards, you're not going to get Bell cheaply as his owners are predicting massive points for him. CEH owners aren't going to give him away either.
  8. We're all guessing. Week 7 CEH is safe because Bell will have only been on the team for 4 days. He might be in some sub packages but that's about it, especially with CEH coming off a 160 yard rushing game. No need to throw Bell in there right away. After week 8, we will see. All of us tend to look at the situation through the lens of what we want to happen for our fantasy team. We should think about what Reid will do. Reid doesn't give a crap about stats. He wants another championship. He will do not only what will help his team win the next game, but also what's best for the balance of the season. He's gonna play both guys once Bell is up to speed. First off, I can't see why he would give Darrel and Darwin any snaps or touches unless Bell is just done and sucks in practice (not likely). Then, if I were Reid, I'd take some of CEH's workload to keep him fresh for the season. If Bell starts outperforming CEH or CEH makes some bad mistakes (i.e. fumbles and costs the team a game), then sure...Bell will get more work and possibly supplant him as starter. What I don't expect to happen is Bell being inserted as the starter right away. I mean, why? CEH is doing everything well and getting more than what is blocked. His evaded tackles and tackle breaking is better than what Bell has done the last couple years. RBs get paid to get more than what's blocked, and CEH is doing exactly that. Why switch just because they had the opportunity to add depth? People think they signed Bell to be the starter, and that it was a reflection of some dissatisfaction with CEH. That they wouldn't bother signing Bell if they liked CEH. Nonsense. The signing is more of a reflection that they don't want to rely on Darrel/Darwin if CEH goes down. Having Bell was a luxury that they could easily afford, and made way too much sense to do. Bell was super cheap and improves their chances of winning a SB. No reason not to do it if they have the opportunity.
  9. CEH is 2nd in the league in rushing. Any thought that they're just going to send him straight to the bench bc of Bell is ludicrous.
  10. KC had control of the game through the night, but they absolutely were in danger of losing after the Bills pulled within 6 points in the 4th with about 5 minutes left. Buff needed a stop and a score. They also had all their timeouts. Perfectly doable. I will say that it was probably the only point in the game where I thought Buff could pull it off. To say KC was never in danger of losing is incorrect though.
  11. You're putting words in my mouth. I even said that it's entirely possible that he has his best season. All I'm saying is that he's on the wrong side of the hill in terms of age. I mean, you just said "RBs on average hit their peak production at 27". What are you arguing with me for? You're proving my point and arguing at the same time. Unbelievable. He's not young, despite what you have been arguing earlier. OK? OK.
  12. Agree. I don't think anybody really knows what happens after week 8. CEH should be a safe start week 7 because I can't imagine Bell learning the offense in 4 days. He joins the team Wednesday. He'll probably be in some sub packages to get his feet wet. After that it's questionable but it's almost not worth it to try to guess. Just look at the 2 biggest RB arguments in the last 2 seasons. 1. McCoy vs. Damien Williams 2019 - it started off as somewhat of a split but Damien gets hurt, then McCoy forgets to hold onto the ball. In the end, nobody is happy with either guy. 2. Fournette vs. Rojo 2020 - Fournette has a huge game after Rojo blows it and it looks like he's taking over, but then he gets hurt after a lackluster follow up game, and now it's Rojo's job. There is a decent chance that injury is going to play a role here, just as it has for Hunt / Chubb, for instance. If there is no injury, then it's about who performs better. Frankly, I have trouble believing that CEH has a short leash after rushing for 170 yards tonight. But trying to guess week 8 and beyond is almost futile just because there are so many variables. Who knows, maybe Bell starts acting like a diva like Adrian Peterson did on New Orleans, and Andy Reid gives him even less reps just bc he doesn't like him. You never know what's going to happen here.
  13. He's not young. Even the article you just cited shows that he's on the wrong side of the hill. Doesn't mean he can't have the best year of his career, but it is less likely than if he was 24 or 25. That's all I'm saying and the article you just posted agrees with me, not you.
  14. Only 12% have peak seasons at 28. https://apexfantasyleagues.com/2018/01/peak-age-nfl-running-back/ After 29 there is a huge dropoff. I'm not saying it's impossible for Bell to have a great year. I AM saying that he is old for the position. The article I linked spells that out very clearly. 24 is the best age and it declines somewhat from there, so Bell is absolutely over the hill for a RB.
  15. Actually, I take it back. Worst loss I've ever seen was a guy up a point going into Monday night football and his opponent had no players left. He starts Rex Grossman, who has 6 turnovers, and he loses. This one is second.