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Everything posted by FouLLine

  1. Yeah universal DH extra pitchers on the roster. Even if he pitched well on the day chances are he's removed the first sign of trouble in the 5th and especially in the 6th. If you drafted before the pandemic and got him you probably got decent value. Any drafts post pandemic I doubt you get any return on an investment. I say this knowing he was going fairly late in redrafts. What really is his upside?... Zips has him projected for 105Ks. I'd take the under on that for sure in a shortened season and expanded rosters. Depth Chart projects 81 and Steamer 76. I think 76 a fair projection with how much hype surrounds Gore. But ultimately I would likely take the under on 76 as well as I just don't see him breaking 70 innings this year. 101 innings last year between Advanced A and AA and that was by far the most innings on his young career. So 70+ in a season that is likely to be 50% of a normal season just doesn't seam feasible especially when he isn't going to be allowed the 3rd time through a whole lot. So expect low win totals too. ERA wise he's projected 3.62 (Steamer), 4.26 Zips, and 3.94 Death Charts. I'd be taking the over on 3.94 for sure Zip's 4.26 seems reasonable as I don't think he'll ever be allowed to be out there to get much worse than 4.26. Note that he had a 4.15 ERA in AA (only 5 starts) where his H9 more than doubled (4.08 to 8.31) and his HR9 tripled (0.45 to 1.25). Skipping AAA into the big leagues and not getting his expected NL boost with the universal DH. His best bet at success I feel is if the MLB uses a ball that randomly benefits his arsenal and approach. But if it's the same juiced ball he could be in for a rough time. A high majority of 4-5 inning pitched games is not going to win you anything in fantasy especially if it's a quality start league. I'm thinking best case scenario is they commit to pitch him every time it's his turn at the back of the rotation. That would give him what 31 - 32 starts max in a normal season for a 5th starter. So 16 starts would be half off that which is way too high. Say we go with the projections of zips (21 way too high) Steamer (13) and Depth Charts (13). 13 seems fair if they're committed to getting him that much work he would still have to average just over 5.1 innings a start to break 70 innings. Also what happens if the Padres are actually right in the thick of things? Do they have to convert him into a RP for the last 5-6 weeks of the season to hopefully get more out of him in the playoffs? Now I'm almost thinking best case scenario is they bring him up as an extended reviler get some holds and 3 inning saves. Honestly it would be the most logical. You could get him in a very good position to succeed. The Padres should use Gore as their pitcher following an opener. Ultimately I totally agree next year could net some value if he struggles this year.
  2. While Gore is a good talent he is vastly over rated. I wouldn't touch him in redraft. Even in redraft next year he could be a flop for where he's going to end up going. A lot of Gore's fantasy value is the fact that he's in PETCO but put a DH up against him every night and a young pitcher quickly looses value. I'd rather wait on a bunch of other pitchers who will likely out do Gore over the next 1.5 seasons as well as go much later.
  3. I'm so sick of hearing this pitchers won't be ready nonsense (not exactly what you're saying but the talking heads keep crying about this). Go throw a damn bullpen. Pitch into a screen. There are a million things that can be done yes not all of them ideal but the 3 weeks of spring training over extra actual games is absurd to me as a baseball player and baseball coach. Pitchers just need to throw hitters actually need to see pitches. So honestly the lay over has put hitters at a bigger disadvantage not getting live reps. Granted not hitting in the cold days will help the hitters stats overall. But it's a historic pandemic things will certainly be different, I want to see what guys adjust and rise to the occasion. Not punish everyone else with less games because some guys (professionals) were too lazy to stay ready or get ready during the negotiations. Let's reward those who have been professionals and are ready sooner.
  4. You also have to factor in the over head of running a stadium and what each team invests in advertising. But I think it's pretty off the wall for the owners to act like they're going to be out on the streets over this. Yeah they won't make as much money or maybe they even do lose some money. 1 year of loss revenue for decades of explosive growth and profits.... Since the owners every other year reap the most reward seems like they need to be the one's taking on the money risk. Not the players who are risking their health.
  5. I think baseball in New York, Boston, and DC this year is going to be pretty risky. Worldometers has only 750 deaths reported for today though nation wide. Sundays are always a lower day though due to less staff. So we'll have to see what the numbers are for Monday and Tuesday but at least the data seems to be on the downside of this.
  6. You clearly don't understand how it works. Again the genome closer related to Asia was found on the West coast (the earlier) whereas NY was over run with one closer to the genome found mostly in Europe. So I still have yet to see or find any evidence of NY having cases before Cali or Washington. You're talking about tracking a new virus that is rapidly mutating and sweeping through countries that don't have nearly enough testing or contact tracing. There is no 100% certain way to say this mutation happened at this time in this place. To think because they find a new mutation that they found the 1st actual one that was mutated like that is wishful thinking. Notice they always say Europe and Asia. That is because it is NOT a perfect science. If it were so precise they'd have already released a timeline of every mutation at the exact time in the city that it occurred. But we have nothing close to that. The have it broken down as precise as these mutations likely happened in Europe and these ones likely happened in Asia. Again not a perfect science. Also DNA isn't 100% either just for the record. Yeah DAN testing is far more reliable than mapping the genome of a new virus but not infallible.
  7. I haven't heard anything like that. I've actually been reading the opposite. That New York got a more mutated version from Europe while California and Washington (state) got the version much closer to the genome out of Asia. But either way genome mapping is highly speculative to begin with. What we do know for a fact is the first official cases of the states. Washington was Jan 21st California was Jan 26th New York's first official case was March 1st. Until Mid March Washington was the highest cases and deaths per capita in the country. Then NY exploded past them. But that is a huge gap in first official cases. If NY did have it sooner than Washington or California and it took them that long to publicly announce an official case that only makes their response look even worse.
  8. Exactly. That's why Cuomo went so over board with the TV time. He was trying to make up for lost time. NY is still over 1/3 of the countries deaths yet they got hit with covid much after it was apparent in California and Washington.
  9. I just want to say the main reasons for states making masks mandatory is less about preventing you from catching the virus and more about you not spreading the virus. Yes a mask will lower your chances of infection). But where the mask really helps is the asymptomatic and presymptomatic people won't be throwing their droplets all over the place. But washing your hands every time you come home kinda thing will help. Covid breaks down easily with soap and water.
  10. Very true. Stocks are mainly being floated by all the relief aid. That will dry up pretty quick. Our economy was in for a hard recession long before covid was in the picture.
  11. The beauty of sports is the conversation is never done. I love hearing everyone's speculation. Hell that's basically all fantasy sports are in a way, speculation.
  12. He's going to pretty much lose the entire season. In my opinion you're much better off swapping him out for a lottery ticket at rather than wasting a roster spot on a player that is only losing value by maintaining stagnant value at best. Plus shouldn't we expect a drop in performance upon his return due to the PEDs? If there was a 50/50 bet that Clase would be fantasy relevant at any point from now through 2021 I'd be putting my money on no. Unless you're in over 1000 player leagues
  13. Yeah his 2020 is probably wiped out at this point. He was dropped in 2 of my dynasties early this morning. I'm in a 3rd one where he's owned I'd imagine he'd be dropped by the end of the weekend there too if that owner is up to date on his players.
  14. You contact trace. With the high rates of false negatives they may have to see a quarantine for a few days. But the testing could be much more accurate / readily available in the next 3-4 weeks. The more I think about it the more it seems The Arizona Plan is by far the best route. The cases there are very low and they have all the stadiums they'd need. Everyone's in one place so it's easier to control and monitor. I know there's been talk about letting teams play at their home parks and combining the AL & NL East etc. I just cannot see any reason playing baseball in the New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington,Baltimore. Plus factor in the suspicion that Florida has been under reporting and very lose with stay at home orders. As well as Georgia already opened up over a week ago. I'd just Nix the entire east coast at least for the first half of whatever we get in 2020. Arizona really just needs some funding for more testing. Otherwise total cases, active cases, total deaths, new deaths every other metric measuring covid-19 they are doing very well in compared to the east coast as well as national average. # USA State Active Cases Cases/ 1M pop Deaths/ 1M pop Total Tests Tests/ 1M pop 1 New York 240586 16068 1227 927438 47274 2 New Jersey 112381 13645 849 255214 28734 3 Connecticut 26360 8031 653 100257 27993 4 Massachusetts 52477 9416 544 289636 42405 5 Louisiana 9438 6156 422 168251 36077 6 Michigan 30148 4254 388 195645 19648 7 DC 3891 7008 351 22004 32146 8 Rhode Island 8341 8482 264 66648 63077 9 Maryland 21705 4076 208 125522 20908 10 Pennsylvania 46154 3881 207 227448 17782 NA USA Average 906414 3426 199 6715075 20287 11 Illinois 52992 4372 192 284688 22204 12 Indiana 17441 2807 177 99639 15012 35 Arizona 7562 1146 48 74879 10779
  15. Okay I guess but the numbers he used were so far out of bounds. All the projections I saw were 25%-60% infected within the first year (not 2 months). We are still under 1% of the population infected (at least going off of confirmed cases). Even double that and we are still under 2% and no expert out there is saying they estimate actual cases to be double that of the confirmed cases. Most experts I've seen are estimating 25-50% more cases than the confirmed due to asymptomatic, presymptomatic, people not going in with it, and false negatives. On a global scale the confirmed cases are less than 0.5% of the world population.
  16. The Spanish Flu itself isn't 10x more deadly than covid-19. This is another conflation of the facts. Yes if you look at the raw numbers sure you can make that case right now (covid continues to climb). But consider you're looking at the 1918 flu over a full year compared to covid-19 over just over a 2 month period. Also you are entirely ignoring the leaps in medicine and the health care infrastructure in the last 100+ years. The Spanish Flu was H1N1. Which came back around in 2009 and was handled very well and never became much of an issue. But ultimately you are right about the social distancing. It will save lives. But there is a point to where it is hindering people more than helping people. We aren't there yet but I am fairly certain that point is a lot closer than most people think.
  17. What experts were saying 50% of Americans would have it by May?...
  18. Love would pretty much have to be a Hall of Famer to justify potentially squandering the opportunity The Packers have with Rodgers last few seasons of his career. They could have filled a big need for the next 3 seasons with any non QB/RB 1st rounder as well as fill another need with the 4th rounder they gave up on the back end to move up 4 picks. Instead they are going to end up waiting 3+ seasons to play Love. I just still can't get over this, 20 TDs to 17 picks in college! Say Tua fell to 12 or 13 and then they traded up I would honestly almost be okay with that because at least Tua has shown some glimpses of transcendent talent and only slipped to 5 overall in the draft because of injury concerns.
  19. This is a tough one. I will say I think Gallup has more high end big game potential but Sutton is the far more consistent player. At the end of the season their overall points end up looking similar. Both their teams drafted a WR with their 1st round pick. Denver went with Jerry Jeudy with the 15th pick and Dallas got CeeDee Lamb with the 17th pick. Me personally I think CeeDee is the better between him and Jeudy so I think he would cut into Gallup more than Jeudy will of Sutton. Plus there are just more mouths to feed in Dallas. But it's a close call. Do they have salary differences?
  20. Quite the controversial pick. Yeah the draft day coverage spun it as Farve was 35 when The Packers drafted Rodgers and Rodgers is 36 now when the Packers draft Jordan Love. But the reason this is a horrible pick is because The Packers were one game away from The Superbowl. At least when The Packers got Aaron Rodgers he fell many picks further down than he was projected to. To get Love they gave up a 4th rounder just to move up 4 picks. For a guy who likely won't help their team for at least 3 more season. You know who this was a great pick for? The Seahawks, The 49ers, The Saints, The Bears. When The Packers are in a tight playoff game later this season they're going to wish they had a 1st rounder and a 4th rounder out producing on the field. But instead they'll have a guy holding a clipboard. You'd think The Saints would be drafting Drew Brees predecessor at least a season or two before The Packers draft the replacement to Aaron Rodgers. But The Saints instead decided to draft protection for their franchise QB at the end of his career. Then to top it off that clipboard holding, salary cap eating, uselessness is a player who threw for 20 TDs and 17 INTs last year. I'm sorry but that in itself isn't first round talent to begin with. Then factor in 3 QBs were already taken in the first which everyone knew there was considerable drop off after Herbert. Plus my boy Jalen Hurts and Jake Fromm were still on the board. Jordan Love was a known project going into the draft. How many of the contending teams are going to roll the dice on a project QB? The teams to pick after the 26th pick were The Ravens (Lamar), The Titans (Tannehill off a career year), The Dolphins (drafted Tua), The Vikings (Cousins), The Chiefs (Mahomes). The first pick in the 2nd The Bengals obviously aren't taking another QB. Many experts were saying Love would fall into the 2nd round because of being a project. I hope Rodgers requests a trade for this bone head move and I'm not just saying that cause I'm a Bears fan. I wonder how many picks end up being between Love and the next QB taken.
  21. On a per capita basis Russia is beating The US.
  22. Not so sure what's going to happen to the minor league season but I think Texas gets mentioned for 2 reasons. 1. The Texas League is there so there's a bunch of ballparks all well within a bus ride. If AA season gets scraped or drastically reduced. 2. Texas is the big state that is pretty much doing the best with coronavirus (not on a policy standpoint so much as a lucked out stand point) in terms of deaths per million. Yes Texas and Arizona lag behind other states in tests per million but that is because covid-19 is not nearly as bad there as it is in other parts of the country. So you need to focus the resources in the worst areas. Also wherever the MLB decides to go it would seem basically common sense for testing to be budgeted to make this happen. So I am sure they would bring funding for more testing for the MLB with an empty stadium deal. Other countries have been pulling off empty stadium sports for a month+ now so I'm pretty sure The US is more than capable of doing so.
  23. The vast majority of the national debt is owed to The Federal Reserve because every time they print money they charge interest on it. That is called prime interest which is the interest rate that all other companies figure their interest rates off of. Lincoln and Kennedy both were like why isn't the government printing the money so that the tax payers benefit off of prime interest. We know what happened to both of those guys. Lincoln actually did print his own money called Lincoln greenbacks which is what he paid soldiers with and it like the USD was a note redeemable for gold. Which is basically what money was supposed to be (a note redeemable for gold) until Nixon did away with the gold standard allowing hyper inflation of the dollar. Before then The Federal Reserve couldn't just print money they had to have the gold to back it so if they wanted to print more money they had to buy more gold. This is the main reason why the pound and euro have always been worth more than a dollar. Not because their economies are stronger or those currencies are used more than the dollar but because no one really knows how many dollars are in circulation but we do know it's a hell of a lot more than the pound and euro. Anyway back to the main point. If it was a government entity printing the money the interest made off of "prime interest" could go back into the federal budget and be used for social programs. So instead of owing the fed all this money there would be a federal surplus because the interest made off of the money was going right back to the tax pool.
  24. Well it isn't going to be likely that games are played in Florida now if they keep up with the idiocy.