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Everything posted by FouLLine

  1. lol it is possible I was just being a smart a** as it is extremely unlikely.
  2. lol yeah dude just may have to be the QB.
  3. Shut down... Some days sure. Casey Hayward I'd say is for sure outside of the top 5 CBs in the league but inside the top 10. So not to the point where I'd call him shut down but he's very good. I'd say Kyle Fuller and Darius Slay are slightly better, so if those are guys you avoid with your WRs then do the same vs Hayward.
  4. Yikes... Dude could break camp next year. Probably doesn't due to team control / needs his innings some what limited but talent wise he very well could.
  5. Then on the flip side of this is WRs while an emerging WR can eat into target share some it generally helps to have a nice tandem at least so that one WR can't always have a lock down DB on them at all times and teams then have to pick and choose. But then again that also goes to the inconsistency of WRs if a team really tries to shut that one WR down as opposed to the other you can get low scoring games from WRs who have high averages on the season. The same can be done to a RB but it is harder to do so it's a lot easier to tell your shut down defender hey you're going to shut this guy down all game. Or every time we see this guy lined up on the outside we are doubling over the top. To shut down the running back it isn't just the running back but the entire block scheme the team has to beat.
  6. A big reason there have been a lot of early RB busts the last couple seasons is teams are on this kick of having multiple guys. Back in the late 90s early 2000s 20+ teams had their work horse running back that got the vast majority of the load. These guys are becoming more and more rare. Jordan Howard got cannibalized a ton by Cohen last year (also were people seriously drafting him in the first 2 rounds?). With Cook people under estimated Latavius Muarry's role. If you're talking about Royce Freeman there was Phillip Lindsay to worry about.
  7. Well every TD OBJ throws to Kittle in standard PPR is worth 11 points before the yardage... So I'd say you've got a decent cushion.
  8. ESPN says 99% lol. I have in the past saved my week by benching my MNF negative points. But I've also done it to where I benched a player who went off and then got the #3 seed in playoffs due to being 19 points behind 1st and 16 points behind 2nd. All of it is so rare to even happen I'm just gunna roll them to make the game more interesting.... It's either that or wager some money on the game lol.
  9. Good luck. Full point you'd probably be 2 to 1 for Breida to get that ... half point you've gotta still be better than a coin flip. I'm curious to what your win % is?
  10. I think it's a pretty standard scoring? But The Dolphins average -3.3 points per game and the Bengals are like -0.3 otherwise everyone is in the positive but the Falcons and Cardinals are averaging under 1. So there is the prospect of quite a few negative points as I've saw in my league The Falcons scored -10 points this week.
  11. That they do but they still run the ball more than the vast majority of NFL teams over the past 2 seasons. This is especially more true when you consider the playoffs last year. I guess the best stat to identify this would be % run vs % pass but I'm too lazy to find it lol
  12. Yeah ... I have a heated points race though... As well as a lot of faith in The San Fran D coming off of a bye week. They may hang a 20 tonight. I have a feeling it could be a defensive battle with a lot of defensive plays.
  13. While The Pats are known for running up the score. They actually run the ball more than most teams, last year they were 3rd to SEA and BAL. This year they aren't as high up the list yet but they are still around top 5? Honestly go back and watch their Superbowl run last year it was Sony Michel out of the power-I with lead blocking.
  14. I need the San Fran defense to score -4 or better ... ESPN has me at a 99% win rate but upon thinking about this they are basically saying the San Fran Defense in 100 games against similarly productive offenses as Cleveland, roughly league average? Only in 1 of those games would they score -5 or more points.
  15. Conspiracy Theory #1 Me and my buddies were just talking about this exact thing this weekend. The corner fade route used to be the go to goal line route and this year just doesn't seem to be. Much like you said I don't have facts to back this but seems to be the feel. Conspiracy Theory #2 Run Pass Options have been taking the league by storm because of how effective they are when you have a capable QB who can execute them. Conspiracy Theory #3 I've seen more offensive pass interference this year than in previous years by a wide margin. Again I don't have the stats to back this claim but Cris Collinsworth mentioned it last night in the GB@DAL game.
  16. Penny did seem to have some extra pudge on him on Thursday... Could have just put on some weight from the injury.
  17. Talent and current involvement in the system aren't the exact same thing... Hence the vast majority of posters talking to me like I'm crazy for saying this. Carson drops that wide open receiving TD and his point total plummet. Everyone talks about how they watch every Seahawks snap and I clearly must not watch but none of them dare brings up how bad Carson is at catching the football. Again I think he's a really good runner between the tackles but after that his fantasy game is pretty limited. Penny will continue to gain more snap share and The Seahawks will see they are better suited with the ball in the hands of Russ Wilson. This last sentence is huge and going vastly over looked by all the Carson fanboys. So again let me define this as clear as day. I think Carson's value will tapper off fairly drastically over the next few weeks and into the fantasy playoffs. No he won't be useless but for the rest of the season I see the following running backs all scoring equal if not more total points in PPR: Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, Phillip Lindsay, Kerryon Johnson, and why not I'll even say Ronald Jones II too. Keep in mind most people wouldn't trade Chris Carson straight up for any of these guys so in Vegas I'd be getting probably +150 if not more on these RBs. If it were to start today where these RBs all get a 10% increase in games played than Carson as Carson already played this week I would think it would be close to even money. I also think Austin Ekeler (even with Melvin back), Jordan Howard, Chris Thompson, and Duke Johnson will all prove to be better draft values in PPR than Chris Carson. Hell I'm near 100% certain Ekeler will end the season with a better game average than Carson I am also pretty certain you all will be surprised with how close their production is ROS. Right now you drafted Carson anywhere from the 3rd to the 4th round, most likely you drafted him in the 25-35 pick range, he went 24th overall in my 12 team PPR and 31st in my 10 team PPR. Drafted well before all of the names I listed above (Kerryon's ADP was very close to Carson's)... So if you can cash in on him and get good value I'd suggest doing so. I just noticed the Penny thread got locked my post got deleted late Saturday night for some reason? But it's probably better suited in here so here it is. Luickly for me I always have 9 tabs left opened and I had it still opened on another tab so I could copy and paste it. I know my calls are far less effective now that most of the names I listed went off.
  18. There is one advantage to having a deep WR stable.... You can always get favorable matchups and we see it all the time WRs have huge games then are shut down. So WR matchups can be critical. RBs are generally way more consistent scoring wise but not many offer much top end point totals outside of the elite RBs.
  19. Yeah picking the right players is really the end all be all strategy of all fantasy
  20. Ekeler is not useless on short yardage.... Yes I will say he isn't as effective as Melvin but Ekeler is far from useless in short yardage. The Chargers were 2-2 coming into week 5. Other than Miami their opponents were Indy, Houston, and Detroit all winning teams. In week 5 they lost to a winless Broncos team "at home" with Melvin. Last year Melvin played in all of their losses and The Chargers won the 4 games he didn't play. So far between last season and this season The Chargers are 6-2 with out Melvin and 9-6 will Melvin (upon a quick calculation feel free to fact check this as I may be off a game on one side or the other) If the Chargers honestly thought Melvin was that critical to their winning as opposed to Ekeler they would have paid him already. Instead it's Melvin saying damn Ek is beasting out in my absence I better cut this hold out short.
  21. Yeah the receptions saved him in PPR plus obviously Melvin's role will grow next week and by week 7 Melvin will be probably seeing 65%+ of the snaps. But I totally agree Ekeler is still an RB2/Flex ROS in PPR.
  22. He also does 1 handed pullups. Not the kind you see the Brotein Boys doing in the gym where their second hand is on the wrist of their dominant hand but legit only one arm.
  23. Great points. Add Michael Gallup (19.3 pts in PPR 6.4% start) who coming into this week was sitting on most waiver wires. But with all this hindsight how many of these guys would you straight up trade your OBJ or JuJu or Julio Jones for?... I personally am a bit more on the risky side as well as really like DJ Chark so I'd consider it but I know most people in the fantasy realm if I offered my Chark for their any WR drafted in the top 20 picks they'd instantly reject with a really condescending comment.
  24. Hasn't this pretty much been the case since the dawn of fantasy football? I think the last few seasons fantasy players had success getting away from RBs early. Which was a result of a number of things that took time to really compound. All the offensive empowering rule changes, all the QB talent to enter the league over the last 7-8 years or so, college teams become far more pass heavy over the last decade, etc.
  25. This isn't an uncommon strategy. But there's always give and take. Certainly going to find more help with WRs off the wire.