FouLLine

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Posts posted by FouLLine


  1. 10 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

    It's estimated that about 30% of the revenue comes from the gate.  So you can see the math here doesn't add up with this hypothesis.

    Here are the revenues by team -

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

    And here are the payrolls -

    https://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/2019/team/all/

    You prorate both the revenues to account for that lost 30%, and then the prorated salaries and the lost revenue from missed games is a wash.  It's still plenty profitable for someone to own a baseball game that gets played in empty stands on TV.

     

    You also have to factor in the over head of running a stadium and what each team invests in advertising.  But I think it's pretty off the wall for the owners to act like they're going to be out on the streets over this.  Yeah they won't make as much money or maybe they even do lose some money.  1 year of loss revenue for decades of explosive growth and profits.... Since the owners every other year reap the most reward seems like they need to be the one's taking on the money risk.  Not the players who are risking their health.

    • Thanks 2

  2. On 5/9/2020 at 6:50 PM, JE7HorseGod said:

    https://theathletic.com/1804433/2020/05/09/rosenthal-latest-details-on-baseballs-plan-to-return?source=user-shared-article

    Nothing is official. Major League Baseball will discuss its plans for the 2020 season in a conference call with owners on Monday. If the owners give their approval, the league will present its proposal to the players’ union on Tuesday.

     

    As previously reported, even a formal plan would be subject to change; the details are pending ownership and union approval, and the unpredictability of the COVID-19 pandemic might force the league to adjust locales and schedules before the season begins and after it is in progress.

    Any plan also would require sign-off from medical experts and confidence that testing for the virus would be sufficiently available. But here is a rough outline of some of what the league would like to do, according to four people with knowledge of the league’s intentions:

    • A regular season beginning in early July and consisting of approximately 80 games. The number might not be exactly 80 — 78 and 82 are also possibilities.

    The schedule would be regionalized: Teams would face opponents only from their own division and the same geographic division in the opposite league. An NL East club, for example, would face teams only from the NL East and AL East.

    A 78-game schedule might look like this: Four three-game series against each division opponent and two three-game series against each non-division opponent.

    • Teams would open in as many home parks as possible, with even New York — the major-league city hardest hit by the coronavirus — potentially in play by early July.

    Toronto also might open by then, though nonessential travel between the U.S. and Canada is restricted through at least May 21 and all travelers to Canada are subject to a mandatory 14-day quarantine.

    Teams unable to open in their cities temporarily would relocate, either to their spring training sites or major-league parks in other parts of the country. The same would apply to spring training 2.0 if the league decides to use mostly home parks as opposed to returning to Florida and Arizona.

    Not all clubs agree they should train in their home parks, believing spring locales offer a less densely populated, more controlled environment.

    • Expanded playoffs similar to the idea first reported by the New York Post in February, with an increase from five to seven teams in each league.

    Under this plan, the team with the best record in each league would receive a bye in the wild-card round and advance to the Division Series. The two other division winners and wild card with the best record would face the bottom three wild cards in a best-of-three wild-card round.

    • Because games, at least initially, will be played without fans, the players would be asked to accept a further reduction in pay, most likely by agreeing to a set percentage of revenues for this season only.

    The idea behind such a plan, from the league’s perspective, would be to protect the players and owners against the economic uncertainty created by the virus.

    The players agreed in March to prorate their salaries in a shortened season. Those salaries cover the regular season only, while postseason shares are based upon gate receipts. If the players agreed to a set percentage of revenue, they also would share any additional national TV money generated during the postseason.

    Without the players making such a concession, league officials say they will spend more on player salaries than they would earn in revenue for every incremental regular-season game played without fans. The union believes the opposite to be true and that postseason TV and other revenue will further enhance the league’s financial position.

    The salary issue remains a source of friction. If the owners say it is not economically feasible to play games without fans, the union almost certainly would ask to see financial proof. The teams do not provide the players with full access to their books.

    A number of other considerations, financial and otherwise, will enter the discussions between players and owners. An expanded roster of as many as 45 to 50 players is expected. The parties also would need to determine medical protocols — for instance, how they would react if a player becomes infected with the virus.

    The final details are to be determined. But a preferred blueprint is in place.

     

    I think baseball in New York, Boston, and DC this year is going to be pretty risky.

     

    Worldometers has only 750 deaths reported for today though nation wide.  Sundays are always a lower day though due to less staff.  So we'll have to see what the numbers are for Monday and Tuesday but at least the data seems to be on the downside of this.


  3. 3 hours ago, daynlokki said:

    Everyone’s response was horrible. Studies have found earlier cases in almost every state. The main version of the virus in the US currently is the European version. Genome mapping isn’t speculative. They base it on how similar two genomes are. The genome mapping from NY was pretty much exact with that of the U.K. Saying genome mapping is speculative is like saying DNA in court cases is speculative. 

     

    You clearly don't understand how it works.  Again the genome closer related to Asia was found on the West coast (the earlier) whereas NY was over run with one closer to the genome found mostly in Europe.  So I still have yet to see or find any evidence of NY having cases before Cali or Washington. 

     

    You're talking about tracking a new virus that is rapidly mutating and sweeping through countries that don't have nearly enough testing or contact tracing.  There is no 100% certain way to say this mutation happened at this time in this place.  To think because they find a new mutation that they found the 1st actual one that was mutated like that is wishful thinking.  Notice they always say Europe and Asia.  That is because it is NOT a perfect science.  If it were so precise they'd have already released a timeline of every mutation at the exact time in the city that it occurred.  But we have nothing close to that.  The have it broken down as precise as these mutations likely happened in Europe and these ones likely happened in Asia.  Again not a perfect science.  Also DNA isn't 100% either just for the record.  Yeah DAN testing is far more reliable than mapping the genome of a new virus but not infallible. 

     

     


  4. 3 hours ago, daynlokki said:

    Genome mapping shows they got hit before. 

     

    I haven't heard anything like that.  I've actually been reading the opposite.  That New York got a more mutated version from Europe while California and Washington (state) got the version much closer to the genome out of Asia.

     

    But either way genome mapping is highly speculative to begin with.  What we do know for a fact is the first official cases of the states.

    Washington was Jan 21st

    California was Jan 26th

    New York's first official case was March 1st.

     

    Until Mid March Washington was the highest cases and deaths per capita in the country.  Then NY exploded past them.  But that is a huge gap in first official cases.  If NY did have it sooner than Washington or California and it took them that long to publicly announce an official case that only makes their response look even worse.


  5. On 5/8/2020 at 6:33 PM, tonycpsu said:

     

    Nah, Cuomo did a terrible job as well.  I feel like I've bashed him here before, but if not, here's your "missteps":

    Seattle’s Leaders Let Scientists Take the Lead. New York’s Did Not

    The only reason Cuomo has the image he does is because de Blasio was so much worse.

     

    Exactly.  That's why Cuomo went so over board with the TV time.  He was trying to make up for lost time.  NY is still over 1/3 of the countries deaths yet they got hit with covid much after it was apparent in California and Washington.

    • Like 2

  6. 5 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

    Exactly.

    Wash you hands and wear a mask just like you wear a seat belt.

    You keep six feet apart just like you keep appropriate distance from the car in front of you.

    You check your temperature like you check your oil.

    The virus is passed by people, you stay cognizant of the people around you just like you stay cognizant of other drivers on the road.

    Be aware of your own "check engine light" and don't ignore it.  That sort of thing.

     

    I just want to say the main reasons for states making masks mandatory is less about preventing you from catching the virus and more about you not spreading the virus.  Yes a mask will lower your chances of infection).  But where the mask really helps is the asymptomatic and presymptomatic people won't be throwing their droplets all over the place.

     

    But washing your hands every time you come home kinda thing will help. Covid breaks down easily with soap and water.

    • Like 1

  7. 5 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

     

    Unemployment rate just tripled. The stock market is not a good indicator of the economy right now.

     

    Very true.  Stocks are mainly being floated by all the relief aid.  That will dry up pretty quick.  Our economy was in for a hard recession long before covid was in the picture.


  8. On 5/7/2020 at 12:20 AM, jonninho said:

    At this point, the conversation among us fans is dead. We must just sit and wait to hear what this proposal is and if its accepted. At that point, we can carry on this conversation.. untill then, we have exhausted all back and forth discussions.

     

    The beauty of sports is the conversation is never done.  I love hearing everyone's speculation.  Hell that's basically all fantasy sports are in a way, speculation.

     

    • Like 1

  9. 19 hours ago, daynlokki said:

    Have him in my dynasty and he’s luckily still milb eligible. 

     

    He's going to pretty much lose the entire season. In my opinion you're much better off swapping him out for a lottery ticket at rather than wasting a roster spot on a player that is only losing value by maintaining stagnant value at best.  Plus shouldn't we expect a drop in performance upon his return due to the PEDs?  

     

    If there was a 50/50 bet that Clase would be fantasy relevant at any point from now through 2021 I'd be putting my money on no.  Unless you're in over 1000 player leagues


  10. 2 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

    This stupid trade looking better and better.  Hope this guy is ready for an entire fanbase to hate him before he ever puts on the uniform.  

     

    Yeah his 2020 is probably wiped out at this point.  He was dropped in 2 of my dynasties early this morning.  I'm in a 3rd one where he's owned I'd imagine he'd be dropped by the end of the weekend there too if that owner is up to date on his players.


  11. 2 hours ago, daynlokki said:

    The point is it seems inevitable someone will test positive. What then? Quarantine anyone he’s been around for 2 weeks? Wouldn’t that shut down the entire league again or at least most of a division? As you said, Von Miller only went outside his house like 4 times. If he got it what’s to stop guys in the MLB getting it with much more exposure? Someone already posted the German soccer league had 3 new infected already. 

     

    You contact trace.  With the high rates of false negatives they may have to see a quarantine for a few days.  But the testing could be much more accurate / readily available in the next 3-4 weeks.

     

    The more I think about it the more it seems The Arizona Plan is by far the best route.  The cases there are very low and they have all the stadiums they'd need.  Everyone's in one place so it's easier to control and monitor.

     

    I know there's been talk about letting teams play at their home parks and combining the AL & NL East etc.  I just cannot see any reason playing baseball in the New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington,Baltimore.  Plus factor in the suspicion that Florida has been under reporting and very lose with stay at home orders.  As well as Georgia already opened up over a week ago.  I'd just Nix the entire east coast at least for the first half of whatever we get in 2020. 

     

    Arizona really just needs some funding for more testing.  Otherwise total cases, active cases, total deaths, new deaths every other metric measuring covid-19 they are doing very well in compared to the east coast as well as national average.

     

    # USA
    State
    Active
    Cases
    Cases/
    1M pop
    Deaths/
    1M pop
    Total
    Tests
    Tests/
    1M pop
    1 New York 240586 16068 1227 927438 47274
    2 New Jersey 112381 13645 849 255214 28734
    3 Connecticut 26360 8031 653 100257 27993
    4 Massachusetts 52477 9416 544 289636 42405
    5 Louisiana 9438 6156 422 168251 36077
    6 Michigan 30148 4254 388 195645 19648
    7 DC 3891 7008 351 22004 32146
    8 Rhode Island 8341 8482 264 66648 63077
    9 Maryland 21705 4076 208 125522 20908
    10 Pennsylvania 46154 3881 207 227448 17782
    NA USA Average 906414 3426 199 6715075 20287
    11 Illinois 52992 4372 192 284688 22204
    12 Indiana 17441 2807 177 99639 15012
    35 Arizona 7562 1146 48 74879 10779

  12. 3 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

    I think his point was that flattening the curve prevents a bunch of people getting at once. His % was stated for that sake of that. 

     

    Okay I guess but the numbers he used were so far out of bounds.

     

    All the projections I saw were 25%-60% infected within the first year (not 2 months).  We are still under 1% of the population infected (at least going off of confirmed cases).  Even double that and we are still under 2% and no expert out there is saying they estimate actual cases to be double that of the confirmed cases.  Most experts I've seen are estimating 25-50% more cases than the confirmed due to asymptomatic, presymptomatic, people not going in with it, and false negatives.

     

    On a global scale the confirmed cases are less than 0.5% of the world population.  

     


  13. 41 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

    It’s been proven to be effective for a pandemic much worse than this one so far. 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic the cities of St Louis and Philadelphia chose two very different roads. St. Louis locked down, Philadelphia went through with life as normal. At the end of the pandemic the death rate in St Louis was 358 per 100,000, Philadelphia was 748 per 100,000. So unless you are a proponent of twice the deaths happening I wouldn’t keep going with the open up the country route. Also, the second wave was 10x more deadly with the Spanish flu. That’ll be this fall when the seasonal flu also emerges. 

     

    The Spanish Flu itself isn't 10x more deadly than covid-19.  This is another conflation of the facts.

     

    Yes if you look at the raw numbers sure you can make that case right now (covid continues to climb).  But consider you're looking at the 1918 flu over a full year compared to covid-19 over just over a 2 month period.  Also you are entirely ignoring the leaps in medicine and the health care infrastructure in the last 100+ years.

     

    The Spanish Flu was H1N1.  Which came back around in 2009 and was handled very well and never became much of an issue.

     

    But ultimately you are right about the social distancing.  It will save lives.  But there is a point to where it is hindering people more than helping people.  We aren't there yet but I am fairly certain that point is a lot closer than most people think.


  14. Love would pretty much have to be a Hall of Famer to justify potentially squandering the opportunity The Packers have with Rodgers last few seasons of his career.  They could have filled a big need for the next 3 seasons with any non QB/RB 1st rounder as well as fill another need with the 4th rounder they gave up on the back end to move up 4 picks. 

     

    Instead they are going to end up waiting 3+ seasons to play Love.  I just still can't get over this, 20 TDs to 17 picks in college!  Say Tua fell to 12 or 13 and then they traded up I would honestly almost be okay with that because at least Tua has shown some glimpses of transcendent talent and only slipped to 5 overall in the draft because of injury concerns.

    • Like 1

  15. On 4/22/2020 at 2:48 PM, LeeVanCleef said:

    So the question is, in Dynasty, who would you rather own for the rest of their career if you had to choose...Gallup or Sutton?

     

    This is a tough one.  I will say I think Gallup has more high end big game potential but Sutton is the far more consistent player.  At the end of the season their overall points end up looking similar.

     

    Both their teams drafted a WR with their 1st round pick.  Denver went with Jerry Jeudy with the 15th pick and Dallas got CeeDee Lamb with the 17th pick.  Me personally I think CeeDee is the better between him and Jeudy so I think he would cut into Gallup more than Jeudy will of Sutton.  Plus there are just more mouths to feed in Dallas.

     

    But it's a close call.  Do they have salary differences?


  16. Quite the controversial pick.  Yeah the draft day coverage spun it as Farve was 35 when The Packers drafted Rodgers and Rodgers is 36 now when the Packers draft Jordan Love.  

     

    But the reason this is a horrible pick is because The Packers were one game away from The Superbowl.  At least when The Packers got Aaron Rodgers he fell many picks further down than he was projected to.  To get Love they gave up a 4th rounder just to move up 4 picks.  For a guy who likely won't help their team for at least 3 more season.

     

    You know who this was a great pick for?  The Seahawks, The 49ers, The Saints, The Bears.  When The Packers are in a tight playoff game later this season they're going to wish they had a 1st rounder and a 4th rounder out producing on the field.  But instead they'll have a guy holding a clipboard.  You'd think The Saints would be drafting Drew Brees predecessor at least a season or two before The Packers draft the replacement to Aaron Rodgers.  But The Saints instead decided to draft protection for their franchise QB at the end of his career.

     

    Then to top it off that clipboard holding, salary cap eating, uselessness is a player who threw for 20 TDs and 17 INTs last year.  I'm sorry but that in itself isn't first round talent to begin with.  Then factor in 3 QBs were already taken in the first which everyone knew there was considerable drop off after Herbert.  Plus my boy Jalen Hurts and Jake Fromm were still on the board.  Jordan Love was a known project going into the draft.  How many of the contending teams are going to roll the dice on a project QB?  The teams to pick after the 26th pick were The Ravens (Lamar), The Titans (Tannehill off a career year), The Dolphins (drafted Tua), The Vikings (Cousins), The Chiefs (Mahomes).  The first pick in the 2nd The Bengals obviously aren't taking another QB.  Many experts were saying Love would fall into the 2nd round because of being a project. 

     

    I hope Rodgers requests a trade for this bone head move and I'm not just saying that cause I'm a Bears fan.  I wonder how many picks end up being between Love and the next QB taken.

    • Like 7

  17. 13 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

    By "we" do we mean the planet?

    I mean, as a country, this worldometers site that folks are using has us far, far in front of every other country in terms of number of tests total.  We're at 4.1 million the second closest is Russia at 2.1 million.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    That's probably lending itself to why we have so many confirmed cases too.  We're able to make that determination.

    I agree that having done only 4 million tests in a population of 330 million isn't where we want to be, but we're further along in this in terms of volume than anyone else.  

     

    On a per capita basis Russia is beating The US.


  18. 8 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

     

    Where?  You'd need an area with enough MLB ready ballparks.  That's why AZ & FLA were/are the first options.

     

    Not so sure what's going to happen to the minor league season but I think Texas gets mentioned for 2 reasons.  

     

    1.  The Texas League is there so there's a bunch of ballparks all well within a bus ride.  If AA season gets scraped or drastically reduced.

    2.  Texas is the big state that is pretty much doing the best with coronavirus (not on a policy standpoint so much as a lucked out stand point) in terms of deaths per million.

     

    Yes Texas and Arizona lag behind other states in tests per million but that is because covid-19 is not nearly as bad there as it is in other parts of the country.  So you need to focus the resources in the worst areas.  Also wherever the MLB decides to go it would seem basically common sense for testing to be budgeted to make this happen.  So I am sure they would bring funding for more testing for the MLB with an empty stadium deal.  Other countries have been pulling off empty stadium sports for a month+ now so I'm pretty sure The US is more than capable of doing so.

    • Like 3

  19. Just now, 2ndCitySox said:

    Maybe its the day drinking, but I dont follow your logic at all. Can you rephrase?

     

    The vast majority of the national debt is owed to The Federal Reserve because every time they print money they charge interest on it.  That is called prime interest which is the interest rate that all other companies figure their interest rates off of.  Lincoln and Kennedy both were like why isn't the government printing the money so that the tax payers benefit off of prime interest.  We know what happened to both of those guys. 

     

    Lincoln actually did print his own money called Lincoln greenbacks which is what he paid soldiers with and it like the USD was a note redeemable for gold.  Which is basically what money was supposed to be (a note redeemable for gold) until Nixon did away with the gold standard allowing hyper inflation of the dollar.  Before then The Federal Reserve couldn't just print money they had to have the gold to back it so if they wanted to print more money they had to buy more gold.  This is the main reason why the pound and euro have always been worth more than a dollar.  Not because their economies are stronger or those currencies are used more than the dollar but because no one really knows how many dollars are in circulation but we do know it's a hell of a lot more than the pound and euro.

     

    Anyway back to the main point.  If it was a government entity printing the money the interest made off of "prime interest" could go back into the federal budget and be used for social programs.  So instead of owing the fed all this money there would be a federal surplus because the interest made off of the money was going right back to the tax pool.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

  20. 5 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

    God damn Florida, America is already fu<ked and they decide to re open the beaches I can’t believe it. 
     

    Baseball is definitely cancelled this year 

     

    Well it isn't going to be likely that games are played in Florida now if they keep up with the idiocy.

    • Like 2

  21. 3 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

    I think all debts are settled after this.

     

    That would be nice if we could just say hey China we are square now for your covid-19 outbreak.

     

    The real answer is the have the government print the money and all the profits made off of interest go into social programs.  If this was the case instead of allowing the Federal Reserve (aka a private company that has no elected officials) there wouldn't be a national debt (see how China does things) but instead there would be a national surplus that could be put towards social programs.


  22. 38 minutes ago, KCTD25 said:

    P.S. There obviously isn't a lot of agreement about anything in this country these days, but once we are through this thing hopefully everyone can agree on one thing: China needs to be held accountable, and we need as much of our supply chain as possible (medical in particular) the hell out of that country. 

     

    There's a lot of money invested in lobbying congress to facilitate American corporations exploitation of the Chinese workforce.  But ultimately this has been needed for our country for a good 25+ years.


  23. 16 hours ago, daynlokki said:

    Don’t see how they think Arizona is gonna be a good place to play. Retirement communities and 47k total tests done for a population of 7.2m. 

     

    A more accurate way to get a picture of what is going on is look at the deaths per 1 million.  Arizona is one of the lowest in the country.  Testing is a lot less definitive data than deaths are.  In terms of deaths per million Arizona is at 24 compared to the nation's average at 107 so basically 4.5 times lower.  

     

    Also I am sure a part of the agreement of doing this would be that the MLB and MLB owners pony up some money to make testing more readily available in the area that they are playing games.  As testing in every state needs to be better.

     

    While retirement communities are of concern it basically comes down to if you social distance and wash your hands you have drastically reduced your already low chances of catching covid19.  I see little to no reason for senior citizens to be lined up outside the ballparks and hotels trying to get within 6 feet of the players.  

    • Like 2