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Everything posted by FouLLine

  1. Korean basketball league has games scheduled for the end of the month. Apparently Japan already resumed their basketball league and is optimistic about hosting the Olympics in July.
  2. How do you guys think this will effect the trade deadline? Do they push it past July 31st? Are more teams still in it making it a buyers market?
  3. I would pretty much count out the regular season.... But if The Rays made the playoffs don't you think they'd pull out all the stops? Plus wouldn't they want their prize prospect to continue to develop by getting extra ABs against the best competition on the biggest stage he's been on?
  4. It really should ... There's no reason the youth takes the hit with this over the owners. As I said earlier in the milb forum there are so many showcases and publications now that teams drafting without a season to go off of is still better than what they were doing 10-15 years ago.
  5. I cringe when I hear the talks about the MLB canceling the draft. If teams have to draft blind so be it. There's so much more known about these players than ever before. Multiple websites with tons of data and scouting reports. National travel tournaments. Don't punish the kids for this, the owners can take a hit one time.... and let's face it they still probably don't lose money with the pandemic.
  6. If that happens I'll be coming back twice as hard to get my fix... But you guys already know I'm addicted. Remember the strike season killed casual fandom in baseball. Which is another reason why I think they will make sure they play this year. The next few days of data are critical. Also I want to say all this we are 2 weeks behind Italy talk is absolute fear mongering the death rate (even with a lack of testing) in America is 1.81% (last night i saw 111 deaths in 6125 cases) Italy's death rate was always well above 5% and now is 8.95% as of an article I this morning. I heard an expert yesterday say that the global death rate if you take out Italy and China is on a daily basis between 0.7% - 0.8% making it only 7 - 8 times as deadly as the seasonal flu. Which I'm not down playing that because that is bad but not nearly as bad as the current 4% global death rate. Again increasing efficiency for testing will continue to increase the denominator (# of cases) dropping the death rates. The world has learned from previous pandemics and we are currently in the stage of over reaction which is a good thing.
  7. Hmmm... Good question... -120 sound good?
  8. FouLLine


    Ethan Small & Peyton Burdick look like great values in this draft^
  9. Exactly. There certainly will be baseball this year. I'd love to get some action from those who think the season would be canceled. Even if 1/3 of the games are played in front of no fans they will squeeze in the season some way some how. Don't be surprised if spring training starts back up in front of empty stadiums a week or two before that 8 week "recommendation". A lot of the panic and hysteria is because of the unknown. As I said before this week we will be getting a lot more good data. I have a strong feeling that data will likely tell us we've taken the proper precautions to flatten out the curve. The CDC has said they would rather be overly cautious now and get criticized later for it than let something like Italy happen here. Which there are many reasons (many listed in this thread) why Italy was in a far worse situation to have the pandemic pass the critical point than The US is. I'm 95% certain we will get 100+ games. They've also been talking about playing a lot of double headers to get more games in as well.
  10. Dan Wilson had some decent seasons with The Mariners in the mid/late 90's. The only reason I even followed him is that I attended a baseball camp he ran when I was like 12 as he graduated from the neighboring highschool (Barrington, IL). Which I thought was really cool cause it was the first time I met a big league player.
  11. I'd go with Mondesi over Stillwell, Jorge Soler over Willie Wilson, and Ned Yost over Dick Howser here.
  12. While I think Arenado's fantasy value takes a hit from leaving Coors I don't think his ADP (say the first season where he's not starting the season in Colorado) will drop enough to net good value. I'm thinking he probably only drops to the 2nd maybe 3rd round at the latest due to name recognition, still being relatively young, and just how elite he has been over his career so far. Which I think his hitting profile he could maintain 2nd/3rd round value in another stadium (and again it really depends where he ends up). I do want to remind though that when Matt Holliday left The Rockies he was a league winner the following year. But he went from a fringe 1st/2nd rounder to like a 13th rounder (going off of memory so I'd invite a more accurate fact check). I doubt we get anything close to this in the case of Arenado in future seasons to come (if he does in fact get shipped out).
  13. Plus add much higher population density than America.
  14. So you're saying it's more fair to assume he'll be just as valuable in fantasy when he's no longer a Rockie? Cause I'm struggling with how that's a better avenue of analyzing this?
  15. It's the numbers that have been being thrown around for awhile now. Maybe "require a hospital visit" would be a better term to use? If you take the numbers you have 14% severe and 5% critical that's 19%. So it's pretty much in line with what I've seen reported.
  16. I'm not watching some video... But feel free to tell me what it says and I'll come back to discuss with you if you'd like.
  17. Get tested if you can. Many people who are positive carriers had very mild symptoms some cases 0 symptoms. That's why covid-19 has spread so rapidly that you can be contagious long before you have symptoms. SARS and Ebola had much shorter incubation periods. Covid-19 you can be contagious for 5-8 days before showing any symptoms.
  18. Yes but at the end of the day you don't need hospitalization if your life or at the very least quality of life isn't being threatened. So again leads back to the fact that this virus is very effective at killing. If the virus was 5x as contagious but had a 0.0% mortality rate everyone would just eventually catch it and take their 2 weeks off of work and your body would hopefully build up an immunity to it. That isn't the case here. The hospitalization problem is directly caused by the fact that 20% of the people infected with the disease require intensive care to be sustained.... Again a lot of those 20% even with intensive care will still die. With out intensive care most of that 20% will die. Most people just don't go to the hospital for a common cold or even the flu.
  19. I highly doubt the season will be canceled. Chinese basketball league is already saying they're ready to start playing again. I personally think they'll restart spring training before the 8 week recommendation by the CDC. Remember the CDC can only recommend they have no governing authority. That would have to come from The White House or Congress. So at some point when all the owners get together and say hey it looks like it's under control their going to want to start making money again. It probably does start with empty stadium games and they probably slowly allow more and more attendance as the season goes on and the crisis continues to get more controlled.
  20. Yeah me too.... Even if he was missing games the guy is projected by many to be a big time breakout. Even with the risk that he doesn't come back the same the upside is too high to not take at least a late round flyer on.
  21. Mortality rate is exactly the issue. Otherwise it wouldn't be a big deal people would just get mild symptoms. Workers over time would all end up taking 2 weeks off of work and no big deal. But the mortality rate of covid-19 is very high. 20% of the people who get infected will require intensive care to be sustained and a higher percentage (when compared to other viruses) of those 20% will still die with intensive care. Yes right now everyone is being overly cautious. The consensus seems to be let's over react and be overly cautious and get criticized later for that rather than turn into Italy. I genuinely agree with you that in the next 2 weeks I do think we will start to see a substantial flattening of the curve. A bunch of testing facilities went up this weekend / today and they are supposedly on a network to better track the data. So let's get some real data so that the models can be updated over the next couple weeks. But when there's very little data, very few testing kits, and a White House administration clearly lying (Trump seems to be finally being more transparent) about covid-19 it is going to highlight all the uncertainty and unknown. The unknown is what causes panic and hysteria. Don't be surprised when the cases skyrocket tomorrow and all this week due to the testing infrastructure finally starting to ramp up. As of yesterday The US was unfortunately the lowest country in tests per million people at 23 even Italy was at 826 test/M and South Korea was the best at 3,692 test/M. But getting good reliable data will really allow the experts to make much more accurate models that better project the pandemic. Right now everyone is looking at the worst case scenario Italy and freaking out. Other countries are already claiming to be on the other side of "the curve" (China & South Korea).
  22. I doubt they'd trade him in the division... So you can almost cancel out the two worst parks in SF & SD (I thought I heard Petco moved their fences in last year tho, fact check anyone?). But Arenado loses so much fantasy value if he leaves Colorado. Yes he still is likely to hit for a high average. But the power numbers and run production likely take a hit. Run production more dependent on the lineup he lands in. Arenado's career splits: 514 home games: .324 / .380 / .615 515 away games: .265 / .322 / .477 That's a difference of 196 points in OPS from home to road games. Last year it was a 193 drop in OPS from home to road games.
  23. This is common knowledge. People's immune systems are stronger in the warm for starters so it's typical that transmission in warmer times isn't usually as bad when compared to cold times. Also as mentioned earlier on here UV light weakens and can destroy viruses when in high enough concentration. So yes warmer weather will 100% be better than the current weather. No one is saying the warmer weather will stop the virus from spreading. The Spanish Flu stalled out over the summer then came back with vengeance in the fall/winter. So take it as a silver lining that we are at the end of cold weather entering warm weather. The spread of the virus would have been much worse had we had the same exact number of cases and it was November.