FouLLine

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Posts posted by FouLLine


  1. 2 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

    Optimistic = hopeful.  Not sure that will actually happen.

    You can't really compare America to East Asian countries, different societies and we've taken different measures at controlling it.  Korea dealt with it long ago, while we have just started putting up warning signs.

     

    Japan doesn't mess around.  They wouldn't just say that willynilly and they've been awesome at containing covid-19.

    This is a huge sign for American sports.  Don't be surprised if games are live by the time the 8 week CDC recommendation is over.

    • Like 1

  2. On 3/18/2020 at 5:20 PM, UberRebel said:

    So at this point it’s almost absolute certainty that we won’t see Wander up in 2020 now, right?

     

    I would pretty much count out the regular season.... But if The Rays made the playoffs don't you think they'd pull out all the stops?  Plus wouldn't they want their prize prospect to continue to develop by getting extra ABs against the best competition on the biggest stage he's been on?


  3. On 3/18/2020 at 6:56 PM, Dark Kn19ht said:

    Any chance the MLB could take a drastic step in the favor of young players on this radically shortened season if it gets played? I don't quite know what that looks like, but maybe its not all doom and gloom just yet for Wander and other top young players.

     

    It really should ... There's no reason the youth takes the hit with this over the owners.  As I said earlier in the milb forum there are so many showcases and publications now that teams drafting without a season to go off of is still better than what they were doing 10-15 years ago. 


  4. I cringe when I hear the talks about the MLB canceling the draft.  If teams have to draft blind so be it.  There's so much more known about these players than ever before.  Multiple websites with tons of data and scouting reports.  National travel tournaments.  Don't punish the kids for this, the owners can take a hit one time.... and let's face it they still probably don't lose money with the pandemic.

    • Like 3

  5. 2 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

    So if the season is cancelled how many of you are coming back next year?  Does this kill off the casual player?  Do you find new things to do with your time and decide to not spend it on fantasy sports?

     

    If that happens I'll be coming back twice as hard to get my fix... But you guys already know I'm addicted. 

     

    Remember the strike season killed casual fandom in baseball.  Which is another reason why I think they will make sure they play this year.  The next few days of data are critical. 

     

    Also I want to say all this we are 2 weeks behind Italy talk is absolute fear mongering the death rate (even with a lack of testing) in America is 1.81% (last night i saw 111 deaths in 6125 cases) Italy's death rate was always well above 5% and now is 8.95% as of an article I this morning.  I heard an expert yesterday say that the global death rate if you take out Italy and China is on a daily basis between 0.7% - 0.8% making it only 7 - 8 times as deadly as the seasonal flu.  Which I'm not down playing that because that is bad but not nearly as bad as the current 4% global death rate.  Again increasing efficiency for testing will continue to increase the denominator (# of cases) dropping the death rates.

     

    The world has learned from previous pandemics and we are currently in the stage of over reaction which is a good thing.

    • Like 1

  6. 34 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

    So China was the epicenter of all of this. Two months after it started, they’re starting to get back to life as normal. 4,000 people who were flown in for medical help were able to leave. Kids are heading back to school. Factories are opening back up. Over 68,000 total recovered and a little over 3,000 deaths. Still about 9,000 active cases.

     

    Exactly.  There certainly will be baseball this year.  I'd love to get some action from those who think the season would be canceled.  Even if 1/3 of the games are played in front of no fans they will squeeze in the season some way some how.  Don't be surprised if spring training starts back up in front of empty stadiums a week or two before that 8 week "recommendation".

     

    A lot of the panic and hysteria is because of the unknown.  As I said before this week we will be getting a lot more good data.  I have a strong feeling that data will likely tell us we've taken the proper precautions to flatten out the curve.

     

    The CDC has said they would rather be overly cautious now and get criticized later for it than let something like Italy happen here.  Which there are many reasons (many listed in this thread) why Italy was in a far worse situation to have the pandemic pass the critical point than The US is.

     

    I'm 95% certain we will get 100+ games.  They've also been talking about playing a lot of double headers to get more games in as well.

    • Like 2
    • Haha 2

  7. 10 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

    Seattle Mariners:

    Catcher - nobody they’ve all sucked 

    First Base - John Olerud

    Second Base - Bret Boone

    Third Base - Beltre 

    Shortstop - Arod

    OF - Griffey - Buhner - Ichiro

    DH - Edgar (not going UTL because there’s literally no names left lol)

    SP - Randy, Moyer, Freddy Garcia, Gaylord Perry, Jeff Fassero

    RP - Sasaki, Nelson, Aardsma, Ayala, Jose Mesa 

    Manager - Lou Piniella

     

     

    Dan Wilson had some decent seasons with The Mariners in the mid/late 90's.  The only reason I even followed him is that I attended a baseball camp he ran when I was like 12 as he graduated from the neighboring highschool (Barrington, IL).  Which I thought was really cool cause it was the first time I met a big league player.

    • Like 3

  8. 28 minutes ago, charger_ss24 said:

    What is your all-time team? Fantasy, pro team, one-hit wonders, get creative. I’ll start with my favorite Royals.

    C - Mike Sweeney

    1B - George Brett

    2B - Frank White

    SS - Kurt Stilwell

    3B - Kevin Seitzer

    CI - Alex Gordon

    MI - Greg Gagne

    OF - Bo Jackson, Willie Wilson, Carlos Beltran

    U - Hal McRae, Danny Tartabull, Johnny Damon

    SP - Brett Saberhagen, David Cone, Zack Geinke

    RP - Dan Quisenberry, Jeff Montgomery

    P - Tom Gordon, Yordano Ventura, Kevin Appier, Danny Duffy

    Bench - Joe Randa, Sal Pérez, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Greg Holland

    Manager - Dick Howser

     

     

    I'd go with Mondesi over Stillwell, Jorge Soler over Willie Wilson, and Ned Yost over Dick Howser here.

    • Like 1

  9. While I think Arenado's fantasy value takes a hit from leaving Coors I don't think his ADP (say the first season where he's not starting the season in Colorado) will drop enough to net good value.  I'm thinking he probably only drops to the 2nd maybe 3rd round at the latest due to name recognition, still being relatively young, and just how elite he has been over his career so far.  Which I think his hitting profile he could maintain 2nd/3rd round value in another stadium (and again it really depends where he ends up).

     

    I do want to remind though that when Matt Holliday left The Rockies he was a league winner the following year.  But he went from a fringe 1st/2nd rounder to like a 13th rounder (going off of memory so I'd invite a more accurate fact check).  I doubt we get anything close to this in the case of Arenado in future seasons to come (if he does in fact get shipped out).


  10. 3 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

    We are where Italy was 2 weeks ago. On the plus side, we are taking measures earlier than they did because what we learned. Also, they have an older population and multiple generations tend to live together. 

    So, hopefully our trajectory is better than our Italian friends. 

     

    Plus add much higher population density than America.


  11. 23 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

    You just cannot treat road numbers as an indicator for Rockies hitters due to the Coors effect. That is the problem. Risk is there, but everyone can look at the splits and over-react and depress his value too much.

     

    So you're saying it's more fair to assume he'll be just as valuable in fantasy when he's no longer a Rockie?  Cause I'm struggling with how that's a better avenue of analyzing this?

    • Like 2

  12. 46 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

    Can you tell us where you’re getting “20% of the people infected require intensive care.”

    Here’s what I find:

    A study of more than 44,600 cases confirmed in China by Feb. 11 found more than 81% were mild. For the study, published by China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention, cases were considered mild if a patient did not have pneumonia or only experienced mild pneumonia. In the same study, less than 14% of cases were severe and less than 5% were critical. Severe cases were defined as shortness of breath, low blood oxygen saturation, or other lung problem, while critical cases meant the patient suffered respiratory failure, septic shock, or multiple organ dysfunction.

    https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/03/02/asymptomatic-coronavirus

     

    It's the numbers that have been being thrown around for awhile now.  Maybe "require a hospital visit" would be a better term to use?  If you take the numbers you have 14% severe and 5% critical that's 19%.  So it's pretty much in line with what I've seen reported.

    • Like 1

  13. Just now, MrBrown said:

    I'm ok, thanks for asking.  It's just a cold. I haven't had a fever or anything to make me feel its anything more.  Just the timing of it made me think of the worst case scenario.  Plus it was the night after going to the DMV and the movie theater, had me feeling like fuq.  But yes I'm very careful, when I go out I wear latex gloves that I'm glad I had a big box of.

     

    Get tested if you can.  Many people who are positive carriers had very mild symptoms some cases 0 symptoms.  That's why covid-19 has spread so rapidly that you can be contagious long before you have symptoms.  

     

    SARS and Ebola had much shorter incubation periods.  Covid-19 you can be contagious for 5-8 days before showing any symptoms.

    • Like 1

  14. 4 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

    More like I heard the main issue is the hospitals. They cannot take the influx of people getting sick at the same time. This COVID 19 has a high attack rate numerous people can get sick at one time and that is why states USA etc are trying to put mandatory numbers on how many can congregation at one time. Mortality rate will always be at the forefront but it is not the main issue. 
     

    This is just a number not exact. there are 300,000 ICU beds in all , 200,000 are being used by sick patients from cancer survivors, heart attack victims etc... this is why everything is cancelled from sporting events to concerts...

     

    Yes but at the end of the day you don't need hospitalization if your life or at the very least quality of life isn't being threatened.  So again leads back to the fact that this virus is very effective at killing.

     

    If the virus was 5x as contagious but had a 0.0% mortality rate everyone would just eventually catch it and take their 2 weeks off of work and your body would hopefully build up an immunity to it.  That isn't the case here.  The hospitalization problem is directly caused by the fact that 20% of the people infected with the disease require intensive care to be sustained.... Again a lot of those 20% even with intensive care will still die.  With out intensive care most of that 20% will die.

     

    Most people just don't go to the hospital for a common cold or even the flu.

    • Like 1

  15. On 3/14/2020 at 12:44 PM, countseth said:

    Baseball is not a high contact sport. I don’t understand why they wouldn’t play at least some games in empty stadia. Or even limit tickets to 1,000 or something. TV deals and ads still happen. Seems like a win for everyone involved. 

     

    I highly doubt the season will be canceled.  Chinese basketball league is already saying they're ready to start playing again.

     

    I personally think they'll restart spring training before the 8 week recommendation by the CDC.  Remember the CDC can only recommend they have no governing authority.  That would have to come from The White House or Congress.  So at some point when all the owners get together and say hey it looks like it's under control their going to want to start making money again.

     

    It probably does start with empty stadium games and they probably slowly allow more and more attendance as the season goes on and the crisis continues to get more controlled.


  16. 1 hour ago, El_Chingon said:

    He won't miss games though.   Sorry still confused. 

     

    Yeah me too.... Even if he was missing games the guy is projected by many to be a big time breakout.  Even with the risk that he doesn't come back the same the upside is too high to not take at least a late round flyer on.


  17. 4 hours ago, B&F said:

    Mortality rate isn’t the issue. It is spread of the virus to the vulnerable.

    It might take as little as two weeks to flatten the curve if people only go out when necessary and take precautions.

     

    Mortality rate is exactly the issue.  Otherwise it wouldn't be a big deal people would just get mild symptoms.  Workers over time would all end up taking 2 weeks off of work and no big deal.  But the mortality rate of covid-19 is very high.  20% of the people who get infected will require intensive care to be sustained and a higher percentage (when compared to other viruses) of those 20% will still die with intensive care.

     

    Yes right now everyone is being overly cautious.  The consensus seems to be let's over react and be overly cautious and get criticized later for that rather than turn into Italy. 

     

    I genuinely agree with you that in the next 2 weeks I do think we will start to see a substantial flattening of the curve.  A bunch of testing facilities went up this weekend / today and they are supposedly on a network to better track the data.  So let's get some real data so that the models can be updated over the next couple weeks.  But when there's very little data, very few testing kits, and a White House administration clearly lying (Trump seems to be finally being more transparent) about covid-19 it is going to highlight all the uncertainty and unknown.  The unknown is what causes panic and hysteria. 

     

    Don't be surprised when the cases skyrocket tomorrow and all this week due to the testing infrastructure finally starting to ramp up.  As of yesterday The US was unfortunately the lowest country in tests per million people at 23 even Italy was at 826 test/M and South Korea was the best at 3,692 test/M.  But getting good reliable data will really allow the experts to make much more accurate models that better project the pandemic.  Right now everyone is looking at the worst case scenario Italy and freaking out.  Other countries are already claiming to be on the other side of "the curve" (China & South Korea). 

    • Like 1