FouLLine

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Everything posted by FouLLine

  1. Hopefully there's a vaccine in the next 12 months. The global death rate I read yesterday was 3.7% and 3.4% in America. While naturally testing more people will start to really cut into the death rate I highly doubt it more than cuts the current rate in half. But let's say that it does settle at 1% that still makes it 10 times more deadly than the regular flu. I have a hunch it will be closer to 2% than 1% though when it's all said and done. But keep in mind once the needed treatment of the pandemic exceeds the capacity of our healthcare system the death rates start going back up when people can't get the proper treatment (take Italy for example).
  2. I'd take the over on 100 games for sure. 145 games is losing just over 10% of the games. When the weather warms up that itself will help check the virus through the late spring / summer, granted it will come surging back in late fall through the winter into early spring. When baseball resumes there is going to be likely a week of spring training games before the season starts to ensure everyone is 100% ready. I'd be less surprised by the MLB playoffs getting postponed than playing 100 or less games on the season. The NBA and NHL still plan to play their playoffs. So that is a very encouraging sign that we will get most of our baseball this year. But a lot can change over the weekend. We really have to see where we are at once we are able to actually test people efficiently. If it does get truly bad where we are going to lose an extended period of pro sports (more than a few weeks) all the sports Players Associations may as well just strike out the rest of their seasons.
  3. If we only end up getting 145-150 games this season do those suspensions get pro rated in terms of games needed to be served?
  4. I would think game checks would get pro rated. If the entire season is canceled salaries may not get paid? The PA I'm sure would argue this for the players though.
  5. Yeah soon enough the number of cases is going to just triple over night once they get all these testing kits.
  6. So there are a few things being over looked with the logic of "1400 sick out of 330 million". 1. The test kits weren't ready there are far more than the 1400 that have been infected (I've been seeing reports of 2k+ 100% confirmed cases). Many people have already contracted the virus and their immune system has already over came it. But who did they pass it on to? Just wait once all these test kits come through the number of infected will skyrocket on just being able to more efficiently administer testing for it. 2. But most importantly virus infection grows exponentially. Millions will be infected even with countries canceling their sports leagues and large events, that is a mathematical certainty. But the ultimate goal is to buy time and slow the transmission rate as much as possible in the early stages. So that we don't overwhelm our hospitals and healthcare system while giving us time to learn more about the situation. Social distancing was the only way to slow the spread of the virus. Italy who was poorly prepared and poorly planned is doing terrible with covid-19. In under a months time went from 3 cases to 500 dead and the number has been continuing to grow exponentially. In less than a week's time Italy's covid deaths have doubled from 500 deaths and are over 1,000 deaths. Their healthcare system is maxed out which is why their death rate is higher than the global death rate. America's healthcare system hasn't been maxed out yet which is part of the reason why the death rate here in America is slightly lower than globally.
  7. Claiming draft rights of unborn children now that's hard core dynasty!!
  8. Riley Green seems to be one of the best hitters out of last year's draft. Comes with a longer time table and some risk but the ceiling is probably higher than all of the above listed.
  9. A few sleeper pitchers in last June's draft that are really catching my attention. Jackson Rutledge, Blake Walston, Ethan Small, and Antoine Kelly.
  10. I agree most people have very little to fear. If you are young and healthy you may feel like you had the flu. In many cases it's been reported as a mild head cold. But with the death rate from what I've been seeing in Italy the death rate is 5%. In the United States it's 3.4%. In Germany it's 0 in like 1100 cases or so. Last global count I saw was 4969 deaths out of 134201 cases globally. Which is a 3.7% death rate. Now as time goes on that death rate will continually drop. With more tests being done the denominator (# of global cases) will increase faster than the numerator (# of global deaths). Also factor in the more learned about the virus the more success treating it as time goes on and ultimately a cure and/or vaccine will be invented (I heard it generally takes at minimum 12-18 months to develop a vaccine). But the main thing being done by canceling all these large events is it will drastically slow the transmission rate. When viruses spread the amount of infected compounds. So by canceling large gatherings the overall goal is to slow down the rate of transmission. I'm hearing no matter what happens millions will get infected by covid-19 but precautionary measures could in the end mitigate how many millions get infected. It's really just slowing the compound of transmission to buy time for a cure and/or vaccine.
  11. Tough break for Willie (pun intended)
  12. Couple that with The Fed having 5 trillion plus on their balance sheet from quantitative easing and repo. Markets were due for big correction before the virus. We still haven't seen the effect of hyper inflation. Sell your stock buy precious metals and crypto currency.
  13. McMahon would really have to start out the season hot. As the Rockies project to have a bunch of platoons. They are really deep position player wise going into 2020. But with Blackmon, Murphy, Desmond all on the wrong side of 30 and David Dahl taking annual trips to the DL (IL) it may only be a matter of time before things get opened up for some more opportunity for the guys a little lower on the depth chart. The Rockies are also very left handed hitter heavy... So that could lead to a few more times of Hampson getting the call over McMahon. I really do like McMahon's talent but the situation he's in right now seems like a lot of players stepping on each other's toes.
  14. Willie Calhoun out hits Pete Alonso despite the huge difference in ADP. Lance McCullers ascends to that ace we all hoped he would be one day. Rizzo & Schwarber hit .285+ combined.
  15. Sorry I saw this late. Curious as to who you went with?
  16. Rodgers is recovering from a surgery on his right labrum. Even if he's 100% ready for spring training it is an extremely high likelihood that he starts the season in AAA. They're going to play it slow and safe with him and with their depth there is no reason to rush him.
  17. Yeah but Hampson is likely to fall shy of 500 PAs in 2020. Last year in 444 PAs (327 in the MLB and 117 in AAA) he stole 22 bases. Extrapolate it over (let's be optimistic) 550 PAs and you get 27 SBs. Plus why run at Coors? Why run when the pitcher can bunt him over? I'd be taking the under on that generous 27 SBs all day. So are those steals really worth it for a 7/8 hitter with minimal power who isn't playing every day? I guess it depends on your league and how late you get Hampson. But I'm going to venture to guess that McMahon in almost all formats nets more overall production let alone being a better bargain ADP wise. Don't get me wrong I'm sure Hampson improves as a hitter but I just think that McMahon takes a much bigger leap forward in 2020. 30+ HRs, with a .270 average, with an increased walk rate, hitting 5th all season at Coors could end up being a top 50 bat. A healthy Dahl with a McMahon breakout could really suppress Hampson's playing time. Even if Hampson can get an edge on Hilliard he's still hitting at the bottom of the lineup and not playing every day. Hampson's value may grow mid season (especially if an injury arises) but to start the season it's looking like he's on the wrong end of a platoon. If Hampson can secure a leadoff role I'd be much more interested. But if that even does ever happen it could very likely take months to materialize and then be taken away after a small slump. Chances are you're burning the 170th pick of the draft for one of your first drops. We will see though spring training could change a lot of this. But as of right now Hampson is clearly on the outside looking in.
  18. I just don't understand how Hampson is going 35-40 picks ahead of McMahon who has the far bigger and better track record. They both likely step on each other's toes. But McMahon has a chance to just run away with the job I really don't think Hampson has a legit shot at that happening for him.
  19. Bingo... Wins and stats get guys paid. In an era where owners are taking advantage of the plethora of young talent out there veterans can't be getting giving up any more bargaining leverage especially when they won't be seeing big long term and secure contracts anymore.
  20. It's one thing if a runner on base is relaying the signs in that is a part of the game. But to set up cameras around the stadium and a system to relay to the hitters when no one is even on base that's going too far.
  21. Traded for Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/cardinals-send-jose-martinez-randy-arozarena-to-rays-for-pitching-prospect-matthew-liberatore/
  22. Now he can play with is childhood friend Nolan Gorman.