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Posts posted by FouLLine

  1. On 3/15/2020 at 10:57 AM, fawkes_mulder said:

    He’s a bargain imo. This isn’t bench coach cause it already happened, but I flipped Corey seager and mike soroka for him in dynasty. Even if arenado goes to the the Giants Or whatever bad park factors stadium, I feel Great about the trade. He’s an elite hitter, coors or not.


    I doubt they'd trade him in the division... So you can almost cancel out the two worst parks in SF & SD (I thought I heard Petco moved their fences in last year tho, fact check anyone?).


    But Arenado loses so much fantasy value if he leaves Colorado.  Yes he still is likely to hit for a high average.  But the power numbers and run production likely take a hit.  Run production more dependent on the lineup he lands in.


    Arenado's career splits:

    514 home games:  .324 / .380 / .615

    515 away games:  .265 / .322 / .477


    That's a difference of 196 points in OPS from home to road games.  Last year it was a 193 drop in OPS from home to road games. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

  2. 3 hours ago, UberRebel said:

    You don’t know that


    This is common knowledge.  People's immune systems are stronger in the warm for starters so it's typical that transmission in warmer times isn't usually as bad when compared to cold times.  Also as mentioned earlier on here UV light weakens and can destroy viruses when in high enough concentration.


    So yes warmer weather will 100% be better than the current weather.  No one is saying the warmer weather will stop the virus from spreading. The Spanish Flu stalled out over the summer then came back with vengeance in the fall/winter.


    So take it as a silver lining that we are at the end of cold weather entering warm weather.  The spread of the virus would have been much worse had we had the same exact number of cases and it was November.  

    • Like 3

  3. 1 hour ago, Magoo said:

    no one questions that were all probably going to get the virus at some point either this year or next and every year thereafter in all likelihood. That fact does not mean that 1-3% of all those (327 million?) will die at anything remotely close to that percentage. Once we get the testing expanded etc I think people will see it’s not nearly as lethal as it’s being made out to be. 


    Hopefully there's a vaccine in the next 12 months. The global death rate I read yesterday was 3.7% and 3.4% in America.  While naturally testing more people will start to really cut into the death rate I highly doubt it more than cuts the current rate in half. 


    But let's say that it does settle at 1% that still makes it 10 times more deadly than the regular flu.  I have a hunch it will be closer to 2% than 1% though when it's all said and done.  But keep in mind once the needed treatment of the pandemic exceeds the capacity of our healthcare system the death rates start going back up when people can't get the proper treatment (take Italy for example).

  4. 1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:


    I dont think suspensions would get pro rated, but don't know for sure.


    By saying "only" at 145-150, I think you're kind of in denial still. I hope we get that many, I'd predict 100 for now, wouldn't be surprised with less or no season.  


    My body is ready for way too early mock draft 1 2021.


    I'd take the over on 100 games for sure.  145 games is losing just over 10% of the games.  When the weather warms up that itself will help check the virus through the late spring / summer, granted it will come surging back in late fall through the winter into early spring.  When baseball resumes there is going to be likely a week of spring training games before the season starts to ensure everyone is 100% ready.  I'd be less surprised by the MLB playoffs getting postponed than playing 100 or less games on the season.


    The NBA and NHL still plan to play their playoffs.  So that is a very encouraging sign that we will get most of our baseball this year.  But a lot can change over the weekend.  We really have to see where we are at once we are able to actually test people efficiently.


    If it does get truly bad where we are going to lose an extended period of pro sports (more than a few weeks) all the sports Players Associations may as well just strike out the rest of their seasons. 

  5. 20 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

    Baseball related question: 

    * If they cancel games, do player salaries get pro-rated accordingly?

    * If they cancel the season, then do all contracts get extended an extra year (since they essentially didn't play one of the contracted years?  Depends on question 1)

    * Since the fantasy season is a lot shorter than the regular baseball season, is there a point where they play an abbreviated season that fantasy is just too short to be worth it (H2H of course)


    I would think game checks would get pro rated.  If the entire season is canceled salaries may not get paid?  The PA I'm sure would argue this for the players though.

  6. 2 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

    I've heard of several folks (I know first hand) who went in sick and asked for tests be are being denied. The US isn't testing for it enough, hopefully that gets fixed quickly.


    Yeah soon enough the number of cases is going to just triple over night once they get all these testing kits.

    • Like 1

  7. 16 hours ago, StevieStats said:

    I don't see why not. Like I said the hysteria is ridiculous and the only way COVID-19 affects the session is if MLB caves to the hysteria, which what they did. 

    1400 sick out of 330 million and the entire country shuts down. 

    Plenty of necessary actions and measures have been taken, but shutting down all major sports and any gathering is an absolute joke. 

    People have lost their minds, it's pathetic.


    So there are a few things being over looked with the logic of "1400 sick out of 330 million". 


    1.  The test kits weren't ready there are far more than the 1400 that have been infected (I've been seeing reports of 2k+ 100% confirmed cases).  Many people have already contracted the virus and their immune system has already over came it.  But who did they pass it on to?  Just wait once all these test kits come through the number of infected will skyrocket on just being able to more efficiently administer testing for it.


    2.  But most importantly virus infection grows exponentially.  Millions will be infected even with countries canceling their sports leagues and large events, that is a mathematical certainty.   But the ultimate goal is to buy time and slow the transmission rate as much as possible in the early stages.  So that we don't overwhelm our hospitals and healthcare system while giving us time to learn more about the situation.


    Social distancing was the only way to slow the spread of the virus.  Italy who was poorly prepared and poorly planned is doing terrible with covid-19.  In under a months time went from 3 cases to 500 dead and the number has been continuing to grow exponentially.  In less than a week's time Italy's covid deaths have doubled from 500 deaths and are over 1,000 deaths.  Their healthcare system is maxed out which is why their death rate is higher than the global death rate.  America's healthcare system hasn't been maxed out yet which is part of the reason why the death rate here in America is slightly lower than globally.

    • Like 2

  8. On 3/9/2020 at 9:00 AM, charger_ss24 said:

    Would the next Acuña be his son? Now that’s a DEEP dynasty league!


    Claiming draft rights of unborn children now that's hard core dynasty!!

    • Haha 2

  9. On 3/8/2020 at 9:25 PM, rasto21585 said:

    I like Bobby Witt Jr, Corbin Carroll and Jeter Downs as some future potential 5 tool studs

    Riley Green seems to be one of the best hitters out of last year's draft.  Comes with a longer time table and some risk but the ceiling is probably higher than all of the above listed.

  10. 10 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:


    again i cant agree with this...yet. no one under the age of 70 is dying.  children are not dying like with the flu.  we DONT know the kill rate. tom hanks has it.  he said he thought he had a head cold...and hes about 65 years old.


    lets say 10 ppl go to the hospital and test positive for it. and 1 dies.  Tony would, incorrectly, have you believe the kill rate is 10%.  when in reality there were 90 other people who had it and had little to no symptoms.  so its really 1/100 die (1%) instead of 10%.


    look at the cruise that was quarantined.  the kill rate was 0.8%.  and the people who died were all over 70.


    everyone is scared because of lack of information....not because its super deadly...


    I agree most people have very little to fear.  If you are young and healthy you may feel like you had the flu.  In many cases it's been reported as a mild head cold.


    But with the death rate from what I've been seeing in Italy the death rate is 5%.  In the United States it's 3.4%.  In Germany it's 0 in like 1100 cases or so.


    Last global count I saw was 4969 deaths out of 134201 cases globally.  Which is a 3.7% death rate. 


    Now as time goes on that death rate will continually drop.  With more tests being done the denominator (# of global cases) will increase faster than the numerator (# of global deaths).  Also factor in the more learned about the virus the more success treating it as time goes on and ultimately a cure and/or vaccine will be invented (I heard it generally takes at minimum 12-18 months to develop a vaccine).


    But the main thing being done by canceling all these large events is it will drastically slow the transmission rate.  When viruses spread the amount of infected compounds.  So by canceling large gatherings the overall goal is to slow down the rate of transmission.  I'm hearing no matter what happens millions will get infected by covid-19 but precautionary measures could in the end mitigate how many millions get infected.  It's really just slowing the compound of transmission to buy time for a cure and/or vaccine.

    • Like 3

  11. 3 hours ago, StevieStats said:

    It's hysteria when the 10 Year UST shatters the previous historic low of 1.32 and drops under 1 like it did today before closing at 1.02.

    Mass panic tanked Dow 12% in a week, flipped the yield curve inverted, shattered the 10 Yr Treasury historic low and triggered the Fed to make an emergency cut of 50 BP outside of the scheduled FOMC meeting.

    That is hysteria. 

    You are correct -- take precaution, practice good hygiene, and take extra sanitary measures. Reasonable measures especially for those with underlying respiratory or health issues.


    Couple that with The Fed having 5 trillion plus on their balance sheet from quantitative easing and repo.  Markets were due for big correction before the virus.  We still haven't seen the effect of hyper inflation.  Sell your stock buy precious metals and crypto currency.

    • Like 1

  12. On 3/1/2020 at 1:43 AM, B&F said:

    Rockies aren’t predictable with playing time.  Fantasy owners seem obsessed with Hampson for reasons that escape me.  

    Combo of those things.


    McMahon would really have to start out the season hot.  As the Rockies project to have a bunch of platoons.  They are really deep position player wise going into 2020.  But with Blackmon, Murphy, Desmond all on the wrong side of 30 and David Dahl taking annual trips to the DL (IL) it may only be a matter of time before things get opened up for some more opportunity for the guys a little lower on the depth chart.


    The Rockies are also very left handed hitter heavy... So that could lead to a few more times of Hampson getting the call over McMahon.


    I really do like McMahon's talent but the situation he's in right now seems like a lot of players stepping on each other's toes.

  13. On 1/23/2020 at 5:58 AM, hailfire4 said:

    Brendan rogers is ready for a real spot also. Nobody has more useless old guys than the Rockies.


    Rodgers is recovering from a surgery on his right labrum.  Even if he's 100% ready for spring training it is an extremely high likelihood that he starts the season in AAA.  They're going to play it slow and safe with him and with their depth there is no reason to rush him.

  14. 23 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

    Steals. enough said.

    Nothing to do with him better a better hitter or anything.


    Yeah but Hampson is likely to fall shy of 500 PAs in 2020.  Last year in 444 PAs (327 in the MLB and 117 in AAA) he stole 22 bases.  Extrapolate it over (let's be optimistic) 550 PAs and you get 27 SBs.  Plus why run at Coors?  Why run when the pitcher can bunt him over?  I'd be taking the under on that generous 27 SBs all day.


    So are those steals really worth it for a 7/8 hitter with minimal power who isn't playing every day?  I guess it depends on your league and how late you get Hampson.  But I'm going to venture to guess that McMahon in almost all formats nets more overall production let alone being a better bargain ADP wise.


    Don't get me wrong I'm sure Hampson improves as a hitter but I just think that McMahon takes a much bigger leap forward in 2020.  30+ HRs, with a .270 average, with an increased walk rate, hitting 5th all season at Coors could end up being a top 50 bat.  A healthy Dahl with a McMahon breakout could really suppress Hampson's playing time.  Even if Hampson can get an edge on Hilliard he's still hitting at the bottom of the lineup and not playing every day.  Hampson's value may grow mid season (especially if an injury arises) but to start the season it's looking like he's on the wrong end of a platoon.


    If Hampson can secure a leadoff role I'd be much more interested.  But if that even does ever happen it could very likely take months to materialize and then be taken away after a small slump.  Chances are you're burning the 170th pick of the draft for one of your first drops.  We will see though spring training could change a lot of this.  But as of right now Hampson is clearly on the outside looking in.

  15. I just don't understand how Hampson is going 35-40 picks ahead of McMahon who has the far bigger and better track record.  They both likely step on each other's toes.  But McMahon has a chance to just run away with the job I really don't think Hampson has a legit shot at that happening for him.

  16. 1 minute ago, StevieStats said:

    Best analogy i can come up with is window peeping. Someone looks up and see someone in their window, that's one thing, but setting up a camera to peer into and enhance what you are seeing that's invasive and illegal.

    The Astros are full blown sign perverts.


    Haha well said my dude.

  17. On 11/17/2019 at 9:45 AM, BMcP said:

    How Hobbesian.  The point is, it’s not “just a game.”  As Fiers and many others have noted, the Astros’ cheating was injurious to the livelihoods of pitchers trying to make it in the bigs.  These people have families depending on them to earn a sustainable income.  Dismissing that as if it’s meaningless simply because it involves playing a game is willful blindness.


    Bingo... Wins and stats get guys paid.  In an era where owners are taking advantage of the plethora of young talent out there veterans can't be getting giving up any more bargaining leverage especially when they won't be seeing big long term and secure contracts anymore.


    • Like 1

  18. On 11/15/2019 at 9:30 AM, FitzMagic said:

    Sign stealing is okay with me. I was even fine with PEDs. It's just a game. If people need to cheat to feel better so be it. They didn't steal a poor kid's lunch money.


    It's one thing if a runner on base is relaying the signs in that is a part of the game.  But to set up cameras around the stadium and a system to relay to the hitters when no one is even on base that's going too far.

    • Like 1