FouLLine

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Posts posted by FouLLine


  1. 14 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

    He stole 22 in 2017 and 19 last year. One year does not equate 30+ SB speed regularly

    See way too many players never sniff their MILB SB numbers. He could make improvements, but if i'm drafting him. Expecting around 10+ SBs, anything after is a bonus. There is more then raw speed to getting bags off MLB pitchers and catchers. He did not flash great base running skills in his 200 PA sample. 

     

    Yeah no doubt.  Minor league catchers are still learning whereas MLB catchers are an entirely different animal.  MLB pitchers have better moves and know how to vary looks to throw off the run game.  Plus with how much more power is at the major league level there is a much less willingness to run into an out.  Every season especially since to be more and more prevalent.

     

    SBs continue to become more and more of a rarity.


  2. 3 hours ago, kenag122002 said:

     

    I didn't call growth spurts dumb, I was referencing this whole discussion.  It's beyond silly.

    Yes, he was 17 when traded.  And if anyone was privy to his "growth spurts" or his work in instructionals it was the White Sox.

    The Padres traded Shields for the proverbial "bag of balls" - not a top prospect, but a J2 guy.  Which, to their credit is a high reward play.  It rarely hits, but when it does, it has value. 

    ANY one of the dozens of J2 signings could turn out. That's the nature of the beast - we are discussing literal kids.  Just as no one can effectively identify MLB talent from HS freshmen with a high degree of precision, these kids are similarly difficult to pin down with a high degree of success.  Some of them are more likely to hit - say the top 5-10 in each J2 class.  The rest, are effectively lotto tickets.

    The Padres hit on their lotto ticket.

    In retrospect we can call them geniuses.  Or we can just admit they got lucky and hit on a kid that was not one of the elite J2 signings (based on either "rankings" or signing bonuses).

     

     

    That is my entire point a losing lottery ticket is better than being stuck with a liability even if Tatis ended up only being an average MLB player or never making it at all.  But somewhere along the way The White Sox didn't realize what they had before they let him go because within a few months of that trade Tatis started to climb the prospect charts by the end of 2017 it was clear he was a stud prospect with a lot of upside.

     

    Yeah The Padres I'm sure didn't think Tatis would even be this good.  So of course we will say they also got a little lucky.  But they also made a fantastic trade for themselves. 

     

    The Sox on the other hand had no business trading for Shields unless they were moving another bad contract of their own but (as discussed earlier) The Sox rarely have those because they are such a cheap organization when it comes to paying players.

     

    To the bold:  Where are all of these J2 guys that get traded right after signing?  I'm seriously asking cause I can't think of another time this happened (not saying it hasn't but it obviously doesn't seem to be a common move).

    • Haha 1

  3. 4 hours ago, kenag122002 said:

    I cannot imagine how naive a person has to be to think that they have the magic pill for MLB scouting and they are smarter than every team.  Just pick the kids of mlb players!  How can all your mlb scouts be so dumb!

    Can we move on?  This thread is ridiculous.  You know absolutely nothing about prospects.

     

    Agreed we really have to as your comment above is way out of bounds and has 0 relevance to anything discussed here ... I'm done trying to explain it to someone who has already decided to dig their heels in despite what the facts may say. [...]

     

    But to bring it back full circle back to the original point... Kenny Williams is terrible.


  4. 1 hour ago, kenag122002 said:

     

     

    What an incredibly odd statement.  Almost all J2 signings are 16 years old.  It does not, in any way, make them above average prospects just because they sign at that age.  Feels like you haven't followed J2 very much if that's what you actually think.  The vast majority of them fail.  They are not above average.   They are signed at 16 years old because that's the agreement in place and it doesn't cost a team a draft pick.  So the opportunity cost is low.

     

    But what a weird view to take that all J2 players are above average because of the age that they sign at.  Very strange perspective.

     

    You clearly don't see yourself contradicting yourself do you?

    The average prospect doesn't even get close to making it to the major leagues.  You understand that right?  

    6 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

     

    But they didn't have a father who was an MLB player!  Don't you see it.  We all should have known he was going to pan out because of his dad!  Forget moneyball, all teams need to do is draft/buy kids of former MLB players.  It's genius!

     

    Mock all you want but The Toronto Blue Jays have put together a pretty damn good team based on sons of ex MLB players.  The All-Star game will be littered with 2nd generation big leaguers for years to come (Bellinger, Mondesi, McCullers, etc).   It's called pedigree, there's a level of insider information and advanced training techniques passed on.  The passion for the game is there and installed at a young age they're around the game more.  Yeah we will see how good Adam LaRoche's kid Drake will end up being.

     

    So I guess your counter argument would be:  Don't bother with players who are kids of former big leaguers, they're only worth trading for washed up pitchers??


  5. 1 hour ago, kenag122002 said:

     

    Heh, I'm not in denial of anything, I'm not even a White Sox fan.  The revisionist history always amuses me though.

     

    Revisionist history?  The trade made 0 sense from the start.  One of the cheapest teams in the MLB bringing in a washed up SP to pay him over 10 million a year? To continue to be below .500?  You don't get to call all analysis of trades "revisionist history" because "no one knows what the future 100% exactly holds" the logic you keep trying to thread is absurd.  Of course no one knows exactly what the future holds and yeah Tatis ended turning out better than most had hoped.  But that doesn't mean The White Sox evaluated that trade correctly at the time let alone the state of the team.  They haven't even been .500 since that trade.

     

    5 minutes ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

    Notice how there's been no comment about the J2 guys from 2010 - 2012 that I provided.

     

     

    Your lists prove nothing.  I've already stated that less than 10% of the players in minor league baseball actually make it to the majors.  So apparently your logic is: 

    Because very few prospects make it to the majors it is okay that we trade off our youngest highest upside ones for aging liabilities because we incorrectly analyzed the talent on both sides as well as the situation.

     

    Had Tatis Jr. just ended up being a journeyman MLB SS that still would have ended up being a bad trade.  Teams don't sign J2 prospects with hopes of them not making the majors, even though most don't.  Teams don't draft players thinking oh this guy will never make it let's hope we can trade him for a bad SP at some point.

     

    Trades are about risk reward.  There was no reward in bringing in James Shields.  The guy was at the end of his career and The White Sox needed to rebuild for a couple years already.  It's like saying, "Hey let me continually trade in potential winning lottery tickets so that I can take on a car payment of a broken down car that's soon to be virtually worthless".  Who cares if the lottery ticket busts why do you want to take on the payments of the broken car?

     

    Plain and simple there is no excuse to be that wrong about a trade.  KW will never admit that (just another reason he sucks) but Rick Hahn has publicly admitted it many times over.

    • Like 1

  6. 2 hours ago, kenag122002 said:

     

    So why didn't the Padres have a verbal agreement with him well before he turned 16?

    The reality is that this is all a game of revisionist history.  Most international prospects do not live up to the hype.  Some of them do.  Tatis was one of those.  The Padres did great in identifying him as a player they wanted to trade for.  But suggesting that they *knew* he would turn out to be the player he became is beyond ridiculous.

    21 teams, including the Padres, passed on Mike Trout in 2009.  It happens.

     

    You continue to try to justify some sort of narrative.  The difference here is The Angels didn't turn around a month after drafting Trout and trade him for an over paid pitcher who's career was about to fall off a cliff all the while never even putting together a .500 record.

     

    No one is saying that it was a shoe in to "know" that Tatis was going to be as good as he was.  But what is ridiculous is that you are in denial to some how justify one of the worst baseball trades we've seen play out in the modern history.


  7. On 1/3/2020 at 1:55 PM, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

     

    Odd that you're taking the word ignorance as a personal attack. We're all ignorant to certain things, I'm just choosing to not put those things on full display for others to see. 

     

    [...]

    First off the vast majority of players who get into professional baseball never make it to The MLB (less than 10%).  But that isn't an excuse to incorrectly evaluate the talent of prospects because there is 0 argument here that is absolutely what happened there.  While KW never has admitted it Rick Hahn actually has.

     

    It's not like it took forever for Tatis Jr to reach the big leagues or he needed some crazy adjustment to take his game to the next level.  He zipped through the minors with rare dominance for a player as young as he was.  So yeah they were way off in evaluating him.

     

    On 1/3/2020 at 1:51 PM, kenag122002 said:

    That... doesn't make any sense.

    It takes time because they have to establish themselves as prospects.  It's not a shoe in.  Many of them don't.

    You can't look at it in reverse.  You are saying the 27th best international prospect would have magically been higher on prospect lists because he ended up as Fernando Tatis.  But that's ridiculous.  What bout the 26th, and the 25th?

    The reality is that he was the 27th best because he *wasn't* as highly regarded as many other international prospects.  So it was very unlikely that he'd end up being worth Sheilds.  Yes it's easy to say now that he was, but that's only due to hindsight.  The decision made, at the time, was for an average prospect.  Not for a great one.

     

    When you sign into professional baseball as a 16 year old you are far from an "average prospect".  Regardless of what some random website ranks a guy or their signing bonus.  In my deeper keeper leagues (which the draft is pretty much J2 and June draft) Tatis was going in the top 20-25.  Sure a lot of it was speculation based on his dad being a former big leaguer as well as upside over known commodity at the time.  But he was far from an average prospect again dude signed at 16.

     

    If a team is saying give us Fernando Tatis and we will give you James Shields then clearly right then and there he is worth James Sheilds.  Now think about it logically who is more likely to gain more value?  A pitcher past his prime who has already commanded post arbitration contracts or a 16 year old SS with a former big leaguer as his father?  Also let's be clear Fernando Tatis at 16 was worth MORE than James Shields as SD agreed to pay half of his contract for the remainder of it (which had they not offered that The Sox may not have gone for the trade).

     

    The other side of the calculus here is extremely flawed because The White Sox weren't a contender they were a bad team already.

    How many playoff runs did James Shields net The White Sox?  0

    How many .500+ seasons did James Shields net The White Sox?  0.

    What was James Shields stats with The White Sox?

    16 - 35, 5.31 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and a 6.92 K/9.  The White Sox paid the guy 10+ mil a year to be below a replacement level pitcher.  

     

    So yes The White Sox messed this trade up on 3 different levels.  First they miscalculated a for sure multi All-Star SS with HoF potential.  2nd they miscalculated a pitcher who was past their prime.  Thirdly they miscalculated where they were as a team.  It was a denial trade a White Sox rebuild was long over due.  Had they been remotely in a playoff hunt you could at least say that but that was never even close to being the case.

     

    So can we please just realize how wrong The White Sox were on this trade instead of constantly trying to make excuses for them?  And for what so you can argue with some stranger on a fantasy forum?  If you misevaluated one end of the trade say Fernando Tatis Jr. because he was in fact so young yeah that's somewhat understandable.  But to be wrong on Shields and the state of your team it just compounds the badness.


  8. 1 minute ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

     

    Aren't you the one that said 'in sports' implying not just baseball?

     

     

    Yep. There it is, in black and white. 

     

    Now go educate yourself before more ignorance spews from your keyboard. 

     

    LOL just blatant attacks on me cause you'd rather argue with someone than actually absorb the facts and find the truth.  

    The facts speak for themselves.  With KW in the organization The White Sox are well under .500 and they were an over .500 team before he became apart of it.  Who else has that kind of tenure?  In modern day.    You want to discuss that's cool but I'm not going to be subjected to your personal attacks.


  9. 2 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

     

    This is some significant revisionist history in my opinion.

    He wasn't a top 10 prospect because he was not a top international signing.  He was the 27th ranked international signing.  He signed for less than $1mm.  He was a *good* signing but not a top signing.

    Others around him:


    15    Andres Gimenez    INF    Venezuela    NYM    1.2 million
    16    Yonathan Sierra Estiwal    OF    Dominican Republic    CHC    2.5 million
    17    Gregory Guerrero    SS    Dominican Republic    NYM    1.5 million
    18    Leodys Taveras    OF    Dominican Republic    TEX    2.1 million
    19    Aramis Ademan    SS    Dominican Republic    CHC    2 million
    20    Anderson Amarista    RHP    Venezuela    COL    600,000
    21    Ronny Brito    SS    Dominican Republic    LAD    2 million
    22    Juan Soto    OF    Dominican Republic    WAS    1.5 million
    23    Cristian Olivo    OF    Dominican Republic    CIN    1 million
    24    Derian Cruz    SS    Dominican Republic    ATL    2 million
    25    Miguel Amaya    C    Panama    CHC    1.25 million
    26    Carlos Vargas    SS    Dominican Republic    SEA    1.7 million
    27    Fernando Tatis Jr.    SS    Dominican Republic    CWS    700,000
    28    Christopher Martinez    3B    Dominican Republic    CHC    1 million
    29    Jeison Guzman    SS    Dominican Republic    KC    1.5 million
    30    Franklin Reyes    OF    Dominican Republic    CWS    1.5 million

     

    From that list, Tatis and Soto have hit, obviously, the rest have not.  The idea that they "generally end up being better than a 34 year old James Shields" is simply flat out wrong.  "Generally" those guys don't make it.  At all.  A small percentage of them do make it.

    To be fair, you also referenced that his dad was a big leaguer.  I don't think that matters for this conversation.  If that truly was a factor in a prospect's valuation, they'd simply be ranked higher.  There are many, many children of big leaguers who do not succeed at baseball.  We can't look back and say he was the XYZ ranked prospect, but his dad was a big leaguer so we should have known.  That's not a thing.

    And we are looking at just the initial signing information, while he was traded a year later.  But he had 0 minor league ABs in that year (this is not uncommon, we are talking about 16 year olds).

    Basically we "remember" Tatis as this stud international prospect, but the reality is that is not at all the case.  The "studs" that year were Eddy Martinez and Yadier Alvarez, Lucious Fox and Vlad.

     

    I love the charts and the info.  But your analysis is dead wrong.

     

    He wasn't a top prospect because it always takes a year or two for the J2s to establish their prospect ranking.  Outside of Vlad and Moncada not many international singings end up instantly being top prospect.

     

    Soto is a perfect example as is Wander Franco.  It takes time to climb up the prospect rankings.  Sure most don't make it, that applies to everyone in the minor leagues.  But that doesn't excuse trading off an elite talent for a washed up pitcher when The White Sox were years over due on a rebuild already.


  10. 9 minutes ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

     

    This is cute. I'm born and raised Chicago and a life long baseball fan. 

    I also said the Shields move was a horrible trade just a couple of posts ago, so you don't need to rehash it, nor try to explain to me how prospects work. GMs, front office execs all make mistake and yes, KW has plenty of them, but they don't make him the worst front office exec that you, or anyone else, has ever seen in sports.

    You yourself commented on Ozzie and Coop being the one's that should take the credit, but who hired those two guys? Isn't part of the job of being the GM putting the right people in the right place? That fact alone negates your ridiculously hyperbolic statement. 

    He was responsible for just about that whole 2005 team. Took over GM role after 2000 season, but was director of minor league development for years before that.

     

    You also might want to look up the name Elgin Baylor before you try to reply.  

     

    No idea what Elgin Baylor has to do with any of this.

     

    But I love how you're going to defend Kenny Williams by admitting some big mistakes he's made.  Where are these awesome draft picks that he's made?  Where are these can't miss prospects they've developed?  Remember Gordon Beckham, yeah it was Kenny Williams idea to fast track him to The MLB which basically ruined the guy.

     

    Even now when The Sox have finally really developed some players and made some good trades for prospects that is more Rich Hahn than Kenny. 

     

    2005 was way more luck than skill.  They caught lightning in a bottle and I as a Sox fan will be forever grateful but at the end of the day there was no longevity to follow 2005. 

     

    In 2000 the year before Kenny took over The White Sox won the division with 95 wins.  He didn't draft Mark Buehrle or acquire Paul Konerko.  He did bring in AJ so he gets credit there.  But The Sox were already a built up contender.  Where are all these rookies they developed into fruitful MLB careers?  

     


  11. Just now, bhawks489 said:

    Where were you seeing over/under win total of 6.5 for the bears? It was at least 9 for the sites I saw...

     

    I dunno maybe it was a teaser but my buddy texted me a pic yesterday of his bet he won on the over 6.5 but I'm looking at it and the odds were at -160.  It was through betus.


  12. 4 minutes ago, sSektor said:

    For the record I’ve always thought McDaniels has been insanely overrated and uncreative as a playcaller.

     

    I think McDaniels is highly under rated.  Brady doesn't have a ring without McDaniels.  If McDaniels was smart he'd go become the head coach of The Cowboys.  There won't be a better job opening in his career.

    • Haha 2

  13. 20 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

    Weather looks pretty gross for Sat evening in Foxborough, MA...steady early rains that turn to a mix and turn to snow throughout--90% chance...winds calm

     

    There's only a 10% chance of rain during the game right now.  But it's supposed to rain all day Saturday so the field is going to be wet for sure.


  14. On 12/30/2019 at 9:17 AM, ajs723 said:

    No one is picking the Patriots. Recency bias is a mf'er.

     

    Texans

    Pats

    Saints

    Seahawks

     

    They have no business being over a 2 to 1 favorite right now.  Maybe the rain coming in helps them but Tennessee has been playing better football lately.


  15. 12 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

     

    Their oline has not been the problem since Wynn came back. The problem (to me) seems to be Brady and McDaniels unwillingness to simplify the offense in order to cater to the pass catchers they currently have. It's like Brady gets frustrated and decides "I'm not throwing to so and so anymore" if they aren't where he thinks they should've been on a play.

    The other problem (in my opinion) is McDaniels usage of the running game. I think with the way the offense is built and the current lack of receiving options, they need unpredictability in the run game. Getting tired of hearing "Burkhead ran for 8 yds, he should play over Sony". Sony is on the field for telegraphed run plays while Rex runs from shotgun against nickel and dime defenses...They need to allow Sony to be out there for more than telegraphed run plays and allow him to integrate into the passing game more. I get that he isn't as good at catching as White but their offense is at it's best when Sony is out there for 20+ touches and working off the play action.

     

    There was a drive last week where Sony was eating and they hit a couple play actions on crossers but then got inside the 20 and went to shotgun to throw...

     

    Brady has made McDaniels look a lot better than he really is IMO. As a Patriots fan, there has been a loy of games over the years where I'm scratching my head at the offensive game plan.

     

    Their usage of Sony Michel has been HORRENDOUS. Here's a basic timeline of how it unfolds when he comes in:

    Team is in spread for a play with James White in backfield. Next play, they call in Sony. The other team sees this and knows a run play up the middle is coming so they stack box and go with their run defense personnel to run blitz. Sony gains just 1 yd. Sony is then sent to sideline for Burkhead to come out. Other team sees this so they go to nickel personnel. Rex runs for 8 out of shotgun against a team playing the pass. People that don't pay attention claim Rex is the better player bc all they look at is ypc. I'm not saying Sony is for sure a better player but their usage of him is stupid.

     

    It's a lot more Brady and the receiving group than McDaniels.  McDaniels & Bill knew this last year which is why they ran through the playoffs bringing back the power I and it was extremely effective to end the 2018 and for their Superbowl run.

     

    I've never seen Brady so inaccurate.  Also a lot of young WRs running bad routes.

     

    I totally agree with your last couple sentences.  Rex isn't even close to Sony he just was catching defenses off guard.  

     

    I'm curious to see how this team calls plays in the playoffs field is gunna get poured on most of the day Saturday so it'll be wet even though it's not expected to rain on Sunday.


  16. 40 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

    Anyone see the press conference where George mckaskey blames the offense on the defense? The dysfunction runs straight up to ownership. Did Pace and Nagy gaslight the owner into thinking the bears offense is almost dead last because the defense didn’t get a record number of turnovers again? 

     

    Welcome to a few more more years of 8-8

     

    Pace 100% needs to go.  He's just not a good GM and he's proven it pretty much every draft nearly every draft pick.  Again wait until everyone's talking about how much of a genius Gruden is for trading Mack to The Bears when they draft another stud with The Bears first rounder this year.  Mack is easily taken out of the equation if Hicks is not on the field we saw that was glaringly obvious this year.

     

    Mitch is a work in progress.  He will improve it's just going to take time and reps.  It's hard when he doesn't play at all in the preseason and then gets hurt early in the year.  Plus I must say this again Fangio gave the league the blue print on how to shut down The Bears offense in week 3.

     

    Despite how everyone is talking about The Bears being disappointing this year they still covered their 6.5 wins in Vegas for 2019.  Of course there was correction coming last year Nagy's scheme was mostly unknown.  Sophomore slumps aren't uncommon in The NFL, especially when your team has one of the toughest schedules.  Next year is the make or break year for Nagy and The Bears offense.  I expect to see a lot of improvement.  Just sucks The Bears haven't had much draft capital in last year's or this upcoming draft.  Everyone wants to blame Nagy for that but clearly that is Pace's fault.


  17. 3 minutes ago, sSektor said:

    Pats suddenly became a deadly running team last postseason. Maybe they can do the same thing this time around. Maybe they’ve been keeping Damien Harris under wraps.

     

    Or maybe their o-line is just that bad this season.

     

    More so teams can cheat the run because Brady has lost a step and The Pats have some of the weaker WRs in the league.


  18. 11 hours ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

    Here is the outlook... probably fifty fifty about one and done.
     

    But with game planning... pats squeak by.

     

    Then done next round in Baltimore.

     

    Anything more would be a miracle. 

     

    my $0.02

     

    Yeah The Titans at a 2 to 1 dog is an amazing value.  Tannehill is one of the best QBs in the league and has some really dynamic weapons.


  19. 22 hours ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

     

    This is just a monumentally awful take, probably based off of reading Moneyball. 

     

     

    You clearly don't follow The White Sox.  What I said had 0 to do with Moneyball.  Like Kenny Williams I don't think you know how prospects work.  Yeah he wasn't a top 10 prospect cause he was 16.  But he was a highly recruited J2 prospect with a big leaguer as a dad.  Sorry to say it but those guys generally end up being better than a 34 year old James Shields.  James Shields was horrible for the team there is no disputing that, those are facts that can be found on his stat sheet.


  20. 1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

    Tatis for shields is horrible in hindsight, but I think tatis was a lottery ticket at that point, no?

     

    Also: love the Robert extension. 

     

    He was a top J2 guy.  James Shields was already clearly past his peak and for what a White Sox team to be around .500 instead of rebuilding?  

     

    Yeah awesome to see a deal get done.  Team friendly for sure.  But Robert is going to make a lot more money a lot sooner now too.


  21. On 12/18/2019 at 7:07 AM, CrypTviLL said:

    I'm not sure that it is...

    https://www.mlb.com/cut4/which-teams-have-been-in-the-postseason-the-most-c289460918

    Have you seen this info graphic of percentages of playoff appearances? As a white sox fan all my life, this is one of the saddest images I've come across. We are dead last. 

    This, combined with our historically awful front office really makes a strong case for one of the worst organizations in professional sports.

     

    All I want to do is enjoy White Sox baseball as a 'Sox fan, but they make it so damn difficult. 

    Nothing I hate worse than a greedy front office penny-pinching on star players when they have so much room in the budget these past 2 years. 

     

    Kenny Williams has been the worst front office exec I've ever seen in sports.  I remember saying I will never respect Kenny Williams unless he wins a World Series back in the '03-'04 time frame.  Then sure enough in '05 they catch lightning in a bottle.  But the players, Ozzie, and Don Cooper should get the credit for that win not Kenny.  But even that '05 World Series run was based around Kenny Williams trading Carlos Lee straight up for Scott Podsednik.  More recently Fernando Tatis Jr for James Shields (granted that one is probably more on Rick Hahn than Kenny).

    • Like 1