LarryChip10

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Everything posted by LarryChip10

  1. To clarify my above post, the 3-4 players I list after my targeted player are obviously protected to have "similar" stats and auction price. That said, sometimes Player A may be +15 in SB's, vs. Player B being + 25 in RBI's... so when plugging in players, if I wind up considerably over my "Magic Number" in SB's, but a little thin in RBI's, it's obvious I should switch my "target player" to Player B and predictably gain in both RBI's and HR's hopefully. I may have a few guys I'm dead set on "BFF/ Homer" drafting, but most guys are flexible and I'm not going to panic when my "target player" sells for $8 over what I've deemed he's worth. At that point, I'm literally staring at 3-4 other guys I'm happy to have providing I don't vastly overpay and screw up all the homework I've done. I'n all honesty, I can usually complete the spreadsheet in a bout 2 hours, but I will spend many weeks just reading articles and looking for trends before I actually plug names and values into the spread sheet. (My biggest trick, is we draft about a week before MLB games start, so I do a final "value" check of my #'s vs. the LABR mixed results. I find the experts know their ****, and any last min risers or fallers can be accounted for.) Surprisingly, my auction values don't differ too much by and large, as "they" probably use the internet along w/ us average Joes.
  2. I met him @ a Giants game in the tunnel last year... he was a complete A-Hole! Was beyond rude to a gal and her lil girl, and when another male fan told him to chill out, they almost went at it. As a braves fan I was taken aback! Very disappointed! Charlie Culberson actually apologized on his behalf after a security guy took Albies back to the clubhouse, said it was totally uncalled for, and signed/chatted everyone up to smooth things over. (It's BOLD PREDICTIONS, and I hope I'm wrong eternal... but dude's a serious prick and needs to mature in a big way! IMHO)
  3. I created a spread sheet almost 20 years ago now, and have won or placed 2'nd (11) times, and ONLY finished out of the $ twice since then... 18/20 payouts. 12 team mixed roto keeper that is a live auction. I too wondered how I could possibly predict what players would be sold for, but realized MOST owners were reading the same online info, predominately the top searches on google for "mixed auction values"... so It became clear that if I gathered the mean average values from a few sites, tweaked them to my given league tendencies, and raised them by about %10 to be safe... I'd have a decnet baseline value to assign to each player up for auction on a given year. NOW, this is only half the equation! The real breakthrough was simply plugging in the ACTUAL data from my league history. I take the last 5 years of the top (4) finishers in each category, and establish a "Magic Number".. IE, a mean average that becomes the # I'm shooting for in each category. 5 years of historical data has proven worthy to eliminate oddities on any given year, but clearly illustrates MLB spikes or drops for a given category and one can see a pattern to tweak said Magic Number if needed. So bottom line, I created self calculating cells that add each row of my projections when plugging in players (my keepers are in a different font and color), and the goal is to keep fiddling w/ players and their projected values until that ROW (category) reaches or exceeds my magic number. Obviously it's easier to predict hitting than pitching, but it works none the less. 18 of 20 years getting paid is proof enough for me! I will usually put my top target at a given position in bold, then 3-4 other similar players after his name... (then the trick is I put BARGAIN/SLEEPER players that hide in a pop up box when I hover my curser over the targeted players cell. This is important for flexibilities sake, so when a player you didn't expect to be a massive bargain is there to be bought cheaply, or much more than you were willing to spend, (yet still a huge discount) you can just grab a "bargain" guy on your secret list later. The $260 active salary row is constantly showing you how plus/minus you are as the auction is ongoing, so it's not a meltdown scenario if you reach for an expensive guy you didn't plan on getting, and conversely, if you get a sweet bargain mid draft you can quickly see you have a surplus and reach for a stud you didn't plan on getting. Not sure this is worded so you guys can understand my madness, but personally I don't waste brain power trying to write down or keep track of other owners current monies, positions available/filled, none of that ****! I focus %100 on my team... I've got ALL my backup plans in place laid out right in front of me, and while the stress and chaos of the live auction seems to consume most other owners to the point of paralysis by analysis... I simply keep a cold beer in front of me and keep my cool. 😎
  4. Acuna NL MVP and solidifies #1 pick status for next 8 years... Judge AL MVP... edging out Tyler Glasnow, barely. Chris Paddack NL CY Young... Y. Darvish runner up, M. Soroka 3'rd Tyler Glasnow AL CY Young... L. Severino runner up, F. Montas 3'rd Ohtani gets 20 Wins/ Steals/ Hr's/ Girlfriends Mackenzie Gore NL ROY, Forrest Whitley 2'nd Luis Robert AL ROY in landslide, Nate Pearson takes distant 2'nd Will Smith leads MLB in Saves Ozzie Albies gets arrested for domestic abuse πŸ˜ͺ (Cheaters) Altuve < 10HR, Bregman & Springer <20 HR's... Altuve has a meltdown due to media pressure after early struggles and hits under .260 too boot! Marco Luciano becomes #1 prospect in baseball, and its not even close!
  5. [...] I love this guy, he such a baller and real life good dude. Really sucks that he's missed 2/3'rd's of the season, as that's easily a win or two along the way. Would be in playoffs already if he wouldn't have rushed back the first go around, but whatevs. (If you've ever pulled/ slightly torn a hammy, no explanation needed. It's Sniper status, game over, limping sucks.) Silver lining here is this was kinda flukey, he's been a legit #1 for years and will fall in next years drafts for savvy owners! (Granted, when Bell Cow RB's went extinct, rules became a joke, etc... it all became luck driven more or less, but AT is a bad mofo!)
  6. %60 of the time... it works every time! Y'er welcome in advance folks... hahaha
  7. Why do they (RAMS) NEVER give Gurley the ball around the goal line? Drafting Bell and having Gurley fall to me late seemed like it could work. Yeaaah, not so much!
  8. Ok, now I've seen some bad QB play in my time... but THIS was an entirely new level of ****e. I mean wtf actually happened out there? It wasn't the (4) picks, it's that he resembled a drunk bride throwing a bouquet of flowers to the crowd of scorned single women. A "fart in your general direction", mockery of throwing (if you can even call it that) wafting a pigskin juuuuust hard enough that gravity didn't win the moment it left his scared lil hand. Quite frankly, MANY of us could have set our beer down, jumped out of the recliner, and done better tonight w/out a single warmup toss or understanding of the nomenclature... just old fashioned "bottle cap, stick, rock" and finger in the dirt preparation. My wife is a Jets fan from NY, I've had the unfortunate reality of watching them for about 17 years now, and I'm speechless. Butt Fumble is officially second place in Jets lore... congrats Sam, you've made The Sanchize sleep soundly tonight my man... my girly man.
  9. Gurley was literally a good FOOT past the goaline holding the ball @ his chin. Not only did refs all go blind, but Rams didn't challenge it... WTF???????
  10. Gurley was CLEARLY one foot plus into the endzone for a TD and not only wasn't it called a TD, Rams didn't challenge it. (On replay it was rediculusly clear the ball was 8"-12" past the goal line.) What's the point of replay and officials anymore? UNREAL!!!
  11. Was up 12 points,... MY Jimmy Jesus & 49'ers DTS vs. HIS A. Cooper & ODB (After AC going bonkers last night I was chasing 35 points and ODB... no way I could ever win, had %98 loss prediction) I effffffin DID IT BABY!!!
  12. Both of Jimmy's INT's were bad efforts by intended targets... tipped gimme's for the DST deep in Niner territory. Falls in the category of $hit happens...
  13. Traded Vlad Jr. for Scherzer (went on DL before trade was even finalized) & T. Bauer (29 ER in 30 IP so far...) yup, that's all I've got.
  14. β€œI’m taking Acuna 1’st w/out hesitation... he’s the greatest ball player to ever play the game, and he’s only 21 years old!” - George Herman Ruth -
  15. See Acuna, Ronald... You think he will be there in round 7-10 until a sharp snatches him mid 4'th. Nightly highlights reels become sad... you silently cry down deep, wondering why your BFF/ Man-crush is on another team? The pain remains night after night, year after year. Baseball Tonight becomes unwatchable, you lose interest in pretty much anything non-Harry Potter related. The Schwan's guy comes by just to check on you, offers freebies so you will answer the door. 3 years from now, you commish a free public fantasy bowling league and host a weekly viewing of The Big Lebowski... Don't do it, don't go there! Draft Robert before round 5, and watch your leaguemates cringe! Don't efff this up!!!
  16. I'm happy to hear you're keeping the new ATL Closer till tomorrow. I've been on topic, scroll away. I've offered a slight bit more than your "must be high on him"... Do you know anything about the modern Braves? Or Martin for that matter? Martin is a guy, he's tall, has a career 4.5 ERA w/ very few walks... has had recent success. But Allard was destined for being a throw in, he's a bust of a first round pick. The Braves got what they could, and will employ him in the role they desperately need to fill until he reverts back to his "not a closer" role he's always had. This time of year, you ride the lightning, you roll w/ whoever you can, but Chris Martin is not a genuine closer like they 5-6 others that are ripe for the picking. Provided you aren't cheap AF, and know the fans will buy tickets and merchandise regardless of success. For your edification, the "quoted post" was a reply to my post, thus the reply on my part. I have no beef, but plz get a lil more depth to your closer input than holding the newly acquired ATL Closer for a day, or bringing up random Ted Turner era gibberish. Luke Jackson has SEVEN blown saves. The Braves traded for Chris Martin because they are cognizant of a major problem, yet cheap... the dots are not hard to connect here.
  17. Vicariously it did, bruh... twice removed, but it's not 1991, nor does Ted Turner own the Braves. Just don't see the relevance of brining up 25+ year old things. Nothing personal, but what does your desire to "hang on to Martin till tomorrow" have to do w/ the Braves last millennium exactly? And how does that apply to Martin closing?
  18. I vihamently disagree... Jackson is on the verge of setting a record for blown saves, (I know a few came when he was not the closer) and there is a reason ATL made this move! They are as complacent as any team in baseball during the season trade wise, and Jackson just kinda fell into the role. He had no business being the closer, but Viz got hurt, Minter got horrible, and Jackson was the only guy to do what needed to be done. (I still think ATL may make another move for an established guy, but if not... Martin is the defacto closer.) It's cooperate sayin we get it, we have problems... here's an obscure solution to a genuine problem. I'd like to introduce you to Nancy... she has no real experience in this arena, but she's new and doesn't fit in... so let's all welcome her and pretend this is the solution. 🀞😊
  19. Apologies... Closers have that one inning and I just though it was pertinent to those who didn't see what happened. He was excellent shy of one pitch. Just don't want someone dropping him as though he had a meltdown... but I get it.
  20. 1-2 pitch, he throws a 97 mph FB down the gut @ the high part of the zone... Bravado cost him. You have ZERO business throwing that pitch to a guy like Thames when you posses a nasty off speed pitch! You throw it 4-5" higher to change sight plane, then follow w/ slider... but you don't challenge Thames w/ a fastball for a strike. Not in the first inning, and certainly not when the game is on the line. Idiotic, but it was a bad pitch not a bad outing... stuck out the side, just went "full Kanye" there for a second.
  21. I watched every bit of it, and that was when my beloved Braves were owned by an actual person who gave his $ and heart to the team. 1991-2005 has jack mierta to do w/ my comment. Stay in your lane bro... Allard is a bust, a soft tosser in a world of high heat. Martin is the typical ATL signing, all the bean counters will allow... Braves took a nail out of the tire and bought a repair kit, but they have been cheap AF (considering they fleeced Acuna $ Albies to a MAJOR extent!)... and continue to NOT sell high on a plethora of MiLB talent when the MLB club is prime for a dynasty. Period, end of story.
  22. Here's the simple truth w/ Diaz. He went to the worst run organization in all of professional sports. The Mets are just everything wrong... w/ everything. Secondly, can anyone remember a time Diaz didn't allow an immediate BB, hit, or hit batsman... then IMEDIATELY not give two fox about the baserunner (regardless of it being a 1 run lead) advancing to 2'nd base, let alone 3'rd... most times w/out a throw given the ridiculous jump. That's coaching, plain and simple! You can't think so highly of your "stuff", that you let guys get into scoring position literaly EVERY time a runner reaches first base. As a manager w/ a pitching coach @ your disposal... you CANNOT allow that either. Diaz is a hot mess, his slider is flat and as much as I'd like to blame him personally... It's bigger than Diaz. It's Calloway (that should have been fired months ago), it's the GM who should go back to managing a Kinko's, it's ownership for a million reasons... it's just the "Mess" and what they do, who they are, and it's sad. It's just sad that a beloved team in a place as wonderful as NY is stuck w/ Will"tam"pon and his trickle down daily BS. (It's "Fu@%ing EMBARRASSING!") per LK's hockey coach!
  23. Luke Jackson making sure Martin's changing of the guard is not disputed... ATL still needs to do much more! So sick of them being ridiculously cheap considering how talented and primed for rings they are. Cooperate America @ it's finest and on full display.
  24. How nice it would be for those of us who've suffered to watch him go on a two month bender to finish the season! He can make up huge ground in that lineup in short order. He went down and got that curveball, very nice swing and he looks different at the plate in the last week or so... plz Benni, carry us to the promised land. 🀞🀞