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Everything posted by ajs723

  1. 33% target share with Hill at QB. MT will be just fine.
  2. Most likely yes, but it does get interesting if Big Ben decides to call it a career.
  3. Just signed with the Steelers. Literally can't think of a better landing spot, other than maybe Indy. He has nothing but an old, deteriorating QB in front of him, good offense, great coach, no young guys to threaten him. He could realistically start for the Steelers in 2021, or at least be the direct backup to Big Ben, if he even comes back.
  4. He scored 20 points in the final 5 minutes and 10 seconds of the game. Feels like that could be a record. I remember McGrady scoring 13 points in 35 seconds, but I looked it up, and he those are the only points he scored in the last 5 minutes. LeBron scored like 25 straight against the Pistons in the playoffs, but that was over a much longer period of time. I can't think of an example of a guy scoring that many points in the final few minutes of a game.
  5. Really hoping Eason gets a shot. It's a fascinating QB landscape with some of the guys potentially on the block. I'm sure they'll at least bring in a veteran, resign Jacoby, or both. This team has a championship defense, a great O-line, and a rising star at RB, they really need to get this right.
  6. I'm not much of a gambler, but now that I look at it again, it says he must be traded for there to be action. So I think if he stays, everyone gets their money back. Basically it's a "if he gets traded, where do you think he'll go" bet.
  7. Do... do you know that Watson led the Texans to a division title one year ago? They nearly beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. How can you reconcile that with your thesis that "winning and losing in the NFL is solely based on the QB, and Watson isn't good enough to win"?
  8. It's a bet on where he gets traded. He can't get traded from the Texans to the Texans, lol.
  9. It's really hard to project what's to come for Brady moving forward. Clearly his physical skills have declined, and that will certainly continue. However, he's still producing and winning. With all the talent around him, and his penchant for finding and delivering the safe efficient check down, I could see him continuing to have success, potential for several more years. Could we see Brady at 45, 46, or even older still making deep playoff runs? It seems crazy to think that could happen, but it also seems crazy to think it couldn't, right?
  10. Actually agree with all of this. However, by the time drafts roll around, he's not going to be a mid to late 3rd round pick. He'll probably go in the middle of the 2nd. Ahead of guys like, yes, Michael Thomas, and Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, ARob, Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay, McLaurin, Diontae Johnson.... AJ Brown should be around the 12th WR off the board next year, give or take based on preference. However, I'm willing to bet he'll be a consensus top 8 in all formats by draft season.
  11. Maybe, maybe not. Arguably, nothing is indefensible. Take your guy. I just wouldn't consider it. For what it's worth, 20-25 targets in this range is the difference in volume between Davante Adams (149 targets) and Robert Woods (129 targets) or Cooper Kupp (124 targets). That's a reasonably large difference. And this is best case scenario for Brown.
  12. No one can be sure of anything in projecting fantasy outlooks. If I'm wrong, I'll take the beating, lol. For me, the number one concern when projecting WR production is volume. There are a million variables to consider when analyzing WRs (size, speed, hands, route running, coach, scheme, weather, QB, schedule, quality of offense, etc.), but to me, target volume trumps all of it. Let's imagine I'm given the following information for next season. Player X has awesome size and speed, will play with a great QB, a creative offensive coach, plays his home games in a dome, etc.
  13. It's not like they're going to line up 9 on 11. If Davis and Jonnu leave (Jonnu and his 4 targets per game aren't even really relevant), they will be replaced. We know what AJ's role is. He's talented as hell, but he's getting 7-8 targets per game on this team.
  14. MT targets 2016 - 121 (15 games) 2017 - 149 2018 - 147 2019 - 185 2020 55 (in 7 games) AJ targets 2019 -84 2020 - 106 (14 games) Best case scenario for Brown, he will get around 110-115 targets, and MT will cruise to 140-150. Taking Brown over MT in redraft is one of the most indefensible takes I've seen in a while, and many people will do it.
  15. Enjoy 110 targets from your early 3rd round pick. Too risky for my blood. He'll get drafted in the same range as MT, who will get at least 50 more targets.
  16. Scroll up. I just posted that he averaged 8 catches a game with Hill this year. He was also the best WR in the NFL with Teddy Bridgewater. It would be better for him if the Saints got Watson or something, but MT is a WR1 with me at QB.
  17. That's a good point. The other thing in favor of Dobbins is that, while he'll get vultured plenty by LJ and Edwards, the team also won't throw often from in close, so they will probably end up scoring more rushing TDs overall than any other team. I think the lack of consistent pass catching volume is the biggest concern for JK, whether that's his fault or the offense's fault.
  18. Yup. Plus, he's 27. This isn't a 33 year old veteran who's going to fall off of a cliff. Nor is this a 23 year old without a long track record. This is a guy in his prime, who's put together season after season of high-end WR1 numbers, with multiple QBs. Unless you think he's *Groan* "injury prone", then there's no reason to think he won't be a high-end WR1 again.
  19. I mean, he got like 8 catches per start with Hill. It's a small sample size, but I'm pretty sure he's putting up another 120 catch season with any QB, if he's healthy.
  20. They're pinching every penny. That's it. They don't care about winning at all. Billionaires are screaming that they're broke. The team will be an unabated mess this season.
  21. Yup. And none of those things will be a factor next year. He has the full offseason to recover and Brees will be on a beach (or in a booth) somewhere. MT will end up getting drafted in the middle of the 3rd round, when he should get drafted at the end of the first. There is almost always one player who burns owners because of injuries, and then is discounted by 2 rounds the following season. I'm convinced that player is Thomas next year.
  22. As a die-hard Pacers fan, I can say that he's looked pretty terrible at basketball. He's also never fully healthy.
  23. Chiefs Packers is way too easy, so I'm going Chiefs-Bucs as well.
  24. I'm fine with punishing the fumbling team, but it turns into a a twenty yard penalty and a change of possession. Literally the harshest penalty in all of football. Seems disproportionate to the act. Violently slam a defenseless QB into the turf, 15yard penalty. Ball slips out of your hands goes forward one foot and out of bounds, 20 yard penalty AND a turnover. Ehh... Not sure why fumbling the ball through the endzone can't just be a 15 yard penalty. Instead of second and goal at the 1, you now have 2nd and goal at the 16. That seems plenty harsh enough.
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