merlin401

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merlin401 last won the day on March 13

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About merlin401

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  1. I honestly don’t know what the best course forward is. I can intellectually make cases from a very detached level about certain strategies but they all have some very challenging hurdles to realistically and effectively be implemented.
  2. 50% of Americans getting it over the next year is lightyears different than 50% of Americans getting it in May
  3. Bottom line about the July 4th plan: I think it’s within the realm of possibility if America seriously worked towards that goal. However I don’t see that a lot of America has much interest in doing that. I mean we are starting to open the states up even as we are essentially hitting all time highs in new cases. That’s absolutely insane.
  4. Yeah well the death rate of covid clearly isn’t 12% or anything close to that. Anyway, the herd immunity plan sounds great on paper until you realize how difficult that path is. If I’m even in my 40s and 50s I don’t love the plan of “just go to work and play a game of Russian roulette so the stock market doesn’t tank”
  5. Not really like that. I run a tutoring center at my university so my student workers and I were there until the University shut down (march 11)
  6. US intelligence reported a potential cataclysmic pandemic in late November. WHO declared a worldwide health emergency in January. China began locking down ten percent of the worlds population on January 23. US politicians began dumping stocks in mid February. Hell even I moved my retirement account to cash on Feb 28th (and since have been completely perplexed at it bouncing back while I stay in cash???). On March 2nd I sent an email to employees saying we were likely to start seeing widespread cases and to stay home if sick and to wash hands after touching common public surfaces, etc. It didn’t move nearly as fast and unexpectedly as you’re suggesting
  7. Well I don’t think people were arguing young people don’t get it; just that they don’t die from it. If you get Covid in this age range it’s still about a 1:500 chance you die (less for 20 something’s, more for those in their 40s obviously). The biggest danger is still that you can easily be a young person carrier and spread it around to people and loved ones who are far more likely to die than yourself.
  8. He said “this is not even bad as flu”. That is a totally irresponsible thing to say. of course I’m I optimistic they will find a vaccine. Evidence suggests this is quite likely. Until then, you me and everyone has to publicly call out anyone who dares say this is similar (or gasp) less bad than flu.
  9. [...] You're parroting something that is literally dangerous. If enough people say stuff like this, you may actually convince people to go out and socialize and could actually lead to their death or the deaths of others. Please stop it. One fun flu fact: The flu typically kills around 250 people per month in Italy. It's killed 600-900 per DAY there lately, despite their entire economy being stopped to go into a nationwide lockdown. [...]
  10. Not sure about this. First off there are many viruses that we lump together as being “the common cold”. Coronavirus account for about 20% of those cases and are indeed more prevalent in winter. So I think the jury is still very much out on Covid-19 and the warm weather. Not a great sign that it seems to be taking off in Brazil and Malaysia right now though
  11. We shall see, different viruses mutate at different rates. I'd say it is more common for our body to have immunity to virus once defeating them than it is to not develop that, so I'm being optimistic (but I realize it is by no means a sure thing)
  12. I just don't really see it lasting 1.5 years. Either we've essentially all gotten it by winter or its slowed down enough to be manageable by health care since so many people are immune (having recovered)
  13. I mean this is Trumps schtick for years now. He insinuates things without ACTUALLY saying them definitely. Whether he specifically referred to the virus as “a great hoax” in the rally or specifically was referring to the outbreak as the “fake news” that was making the markets go down can be debated forever. What I CAN tell you for sure is that Trumps followers (many of whom I know personally) took it to mean exactly that and dismissed the virus as Democrat hysteria or a democratic hoax to bring him down. Fox News parroted this view as well as many right wing outlets. Probably millions of Americans acted (and are even still acting) too late because of this messaging and it no doubt will cost a lot of American lives. Combined with cutting the CDC pandemic team and the absolute debacle over testing and I would say Trump handled this as bad as you possibly can (up until the last few days which are ok). I’ll also say the China flight ban could have been good if he used that six weeks to fully prepare instead of pretending it didn’t exist. So in the end the China flight ban was irrelevant because he squandered it
  14. Oh please. I would say up until a week or two ago the media’s coverage of this was completely understating how significant it would be. Nowhere has anyone ever said or insinuated infections almost surely result in death. Has any media even ever said the death rate is over 5% at any time?? I doubt it. Stop complaining about the media. You’re picking the one thing that they actually really really NEEDED to sound the alarm over while the US President and his party were saying it was a hoax and conspiracy, and are criticizing them for doing their job this time.
  15. This still isn’t anything like the Great Depression or WW2.