FFCollusion

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FFCollusion last won the day on August 23 2019

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  1. It's all about how you present the answer. He was last elite, just 18 games ago.
  2. Said everyone, about every GB TE since 2013 when J.Finley was last fantasy relevant. Maybe now that McCarthy is gone, the new offense is in place, finally running on all cylinders in 2020... maybe this time it's different. But until I see him do it with Lazard and Adams on the field, I'm not buying it. Rodgers has never been a TE friendly QB. Finely in 2011 is the last time Rodgers has had a top 10 fantasy TE.
  3. First things first... "Facts" can be biased. For example, Bell hasn't had a good game in 17 games. To you that's 3 years. In football terms, it's 1 single season worth of games. Including all of 2020 when he's played only 2 games and all of 2018 when he wasn't in the NFL is purposely to skew your data to slander him. Secondly, let's put Bell's season in perspective. Has he been a great 'fantasy' back? No, RB16 is okay, but not special. However, from a real NFL perspective, he had 1250 yards from scrimmage. Just because he doesn't do it all from hand offs, doesn't mean he's not having 'good games'. CMC is the cream of the crop, Zeke was #2 last year with 1777 yards from scrimmage. Alvin Kamara was #12 with 1330 yards from scrimmage. Mark Ingram had a great year last year... 1265 yards from scrimmage. Todd Gurley was #23 with 1064 yards from scrimmage. Bell had 1250... on the Jets, who suck, and use him wrong every single week. Bell hasn't been elite or great, but he was solid, reliable, and can play all 3 downs. For fantasy, I understand all of your complaints, especially relative to his prior success in the NFL. But in the REAL game of football, Bell did plenty on the Jets to prove he's still worthy of being an NFL starter. Lastly... His contract is OFFSET Guaranteed. That means the Jets pick up EVERY CENT of the difference between his new contract and his Jets contract. This means ANY team can sign him, NO MATTER WHAT their current situation is. Dallas could sign him behind Zeke, why? Because he can be signed for 850k, the veteran minimum, and the Jets have to pay the other $13.150M of his contract for 2020. Bell can go to any team and is going to get paid 100% of his contract. This means ANY team, no matter their 'needs' can afford him, and bring in an extremely capable back, for pennies. Salary cap issues don't exist. The Raiders have Jacobs, the Cheifs have CEH... who cares?! For 850k, you can have one of the best backups in the game, second to only... Hunt maybe? Any franchise and fan base and any starting RB can understand the logistics of that, even if they don't like it.
  4. 9 touches. Felt like most didn't come until the 2nd half, I don't recall seeing him get a touch in the first half, but I was watching RedZone. I did see him get a carry but play was called dead. Next play he lined up out wide and ran a route. Announcers were repeatedly talking about why the Browns were attacking IND through the air vs the ground, so this may have been a game plan specific. Hunt deserve every touch he got, but CLE only ran the ball 28 times total, which is a season low I believe. Either that's because they don't have Chubb and we're screwed, or it was game plan specific and an outlier moving forward. Too soon to tell, but 9 touches is the realm of what was to be expected. IND was a top 4 unit against fantasy RBs, so I need to see at least 1 more week to make any hard conclusions.
  5. You guys are out of your minds. He just scored double digits. His worst game of the season so far, is 10 points. On 18 touches. After Week 5 is over, he'll still be RB6 on the season right now. We're 40% of the way through the regular season people. RB6, 18 touches, double digit points, NOT INJURED. Dalvin Cook just hurt his groin. CEH scored 1 point more than JRob, and their game was a shootout. Zeke/DAL just lost Dak Chubb went down last week. Name me the 12 RBs you'd rather have. Kamara, CMC, Jones, Carson... uhh... Maybe Henry? CEH I get, Cook based on the groin sure, Zeke, yeah. Hunt probably, based on your expectation of Chubb returning. That's 8, I could fully understand. Conner and Mostert... Umm, I wouldn't fault anyone for those 2. After that, it's a lot of coin flips. Jacobs? Mixon? Taylor? Gibson, Gurley? Singletary? RoJo? Montgomery? Gordon? All personal opinion. Even after week 5, JRob is still comfortably in that group of names I just mentioned. How you order them will vary every week because of recency bias. Anyone could make an argument for those 9, but no stronger than I could make for Robinson to be at the top of that same 'tier' if we want to call it that. Locked in my lineup until something changes. Whether you label him as RB1, 2 or 5, means nothing to me. If you have him, you have to be stacked at RB to not be playing him every week.
  6. 99.9% of the time I would agree. Unfortunately, we are in a scenario where the NFL itself is also changing the rules. My job as commissioner is to adapt, address concerns in the best interest of the league, teams within in, and prevent this season from having an asterisk next to it, if at all possible. I'm not here to debate, I'm only here to share my official ruling, to potentially help any other commissioners who decide to go the same path. This week might only be the tip of the iceberg, so I decided to handle the situation now, get it over with, and have my league covered, to the best of my ability. After reading everyones thoughts and opinions, combined with extensive discussions, here is how we will move forward. 1: We are going to add 2 Bench Spots. 2: We will allow the 'Back-up' designation. Here's how it will work. 1: a) Every player that is currently a FA, will go onto waivers that will process Sunday at 12:00 am (Midnight of Saturday) b) Every team will be reset to $100 FAAB momentarily for THIS WAIVER ONLY. This is a USE it or LOSE it FAAB budget. c) Sunday, after waivers process, I will reset everyone's FAAB back to their correct/current balance. (Like the previous $100 never happened) Tuesday's waivers will be like nothing ever happened 2: a) Every team with a COVID-Risk-Cancellation, will have the option to pick a contingency player, from their bench, to substitute for the Covid-risk player. b) In your lineup, you will start the normal player, as if the game was guaranteed to play. (The Covid Risk Player) This way, if the game goes as planned, nothing has to be changed, everything is normal. Only IF the game is cancelled will the contingency player be involved. c) You must choose and post into the Facebook group, your contingency player and who they 'would be' replacing, BEFORE the kickoff of the contingency player. This will be a ZERO TOLERANCE rule. Kickoff at 10:00am, your post MUST be time stamped 9:59 or earlier. If your contingency player doesn't play until 1pm or SNF, or MNF, that's fine. Anytime BEFORE their respective kickoff. If you miss the deadline, you will be at the mercy of your covid-risk player. d) This will only apply, to an ENTIRE game cancelled by Covid. If your individual play gets hurt, or injured, or declared out, etc... the contingency player will NOT be used. This is 100% for the potential scenario where an entire game is rescheduled, cancelled, or forfeited for Covid reasons. To be crystal clear, even if your individual player tests positive for Covid, this will NOT qualify. This is only for 'If I knew the game was cancelled I wouldn't have put Derrick Henry in my lineup'. Immediately following this post, all FA will now go to Waivers that should clear at midnight "tonight" aka the first minute of Sunday. Immediately following that, all FAAB budgets will be set to $100. USE IT OR LOSE IT. Sunday, FAAB will be put back to the normal values everyone had before as of this post and waivers will return to normal.
  7. I just watched and re-watched, and then re-watched again, every carry from last weeks game. I'll tell you right now, I don't care about a single metric posted on the last page. I don't care how bad the Dallas Defense is. I watched him run and he's my #1 pickup this week, I'm bidding 20, 40, and 60% (3 leagues) of my FAAB based on how RB needy my team is in each. Yes, Hunt is the back you want to own, Hunt will be the main beneficiary and by far the better/more productive RB on this team. Hunt could very well become a top 3 back in Fantasy. But if you think CLE just watched Chubb go down with an injury, and you think their solution is to double the carries they were already giving Hunt, you're out of your mind. Someone above made the claim that the only reason they split carries before was because both backs deserved workload. Well guess what, Chubb was out yesterday and they STILL split carries with D'EJ. Unless you think that's because Hunt only knows half of the playbook, there's no logical reason for them to abandon the split. Yesterday would have been the easiest and most logical time to say, 'Ok give Hunt everything he can handle.' but that's not what happened, why would we expect them to have less faith or a smaller workload to D'EJ when he actually gets to properly prepare as the #2? Yes, Hunt will be on the better side of it, deservedly so, he's a far superior back to D'EJ. But CLE wants to run, run, and run some more. Every time they let Baker throw, they immediately regret it, and remember why they run it so often. Look, I can't use a single game to accurately project D'EJ for the rest of the season, or the rest of his NFL career. However you have to make a decision, right now, for this week, whether or not he's worth $X. My opinion is yes. Even if it doesn't work out down the road, I think it's the right call to take this chance for Waivers tonight. That much I feel confident in. CLE has averaged 31.5 *RB* carries per game through 4 weeks. Hunt was averaging 40% of them Chubb was averaging 47% of them & the field was averaging the remaining 13% Hunt goes to 55%, you can expect ~17 carries and 3-5 targets a game, for just over 20 touches per week. If D'EJ can manage 30% we're looking at 9-10 carries. 35% puts us at 11-12 and if he can get up to 40% we're looking at 12-13 carries per week, with maybe 1-2 targets in the pass game. Of the top 36 RBs in fantasy right now, only 19 of them average more than 13 carries per game. Only 25 of them average more than 12 carries per game. 4 of them average less than 10 carries per game. Granted this is skewed by pass catching RBs, but the point is that 10-13 carries is enough to be an RB3 in the game we play. I think Chubb misses closer to 6 games than 3 based on time lines, and reports of MCL grades corresponding to projected missed games. This is why I am bidding on D'EJ tonight. Good luck.
  8. Is 2020 really the year to brag about Zero RB? M.Thomas? Hurt. D.Adams? Hurt. J.Jones? Hurt. C.Godwin? Hurt K.Golladay? Hurt Mike Evans? Jury's out, 2 yards twice... OBJ? Lol L.Jackson? QB7 G.Kittle? Hurt, but yesterday might have made people forget. Basically, if you went zero RB, the odds were pretty stacked against you. Week 4, is way too early to know yet, but Hop, Hill, Theilan, Mahomes, Kelce were about the only good outcomes so far. I don't care what strategy anyone uses, I'm not downplaying ZRB or RB/RB... I'm only pointing out, that based on all of the above land mines, that I wouldn't be the one trying to parade around about the strategy. Not yet at least.
  9. Sell High. Look, OBJ is THIS good. The issue is, was, and always has been, Baked Mayfield, never OBJ. The ONLY reason OBJ was able to excel this weekend, was because they removed the hurdle, of Baker Mayfield. Landry threw the TD, Baker handed it off to OBJ... they got him the ball by any means necessarily WITHOUT involving Baker. You can not count on that every week. I would sell high. You saw what OBJ can do with the ball in his hands. The doubt, the fear, the concerns, were never about what OBJ can do... it was always about whether or not Baker can reliably get the ball to him. Yesterday did not change my opinion in the least, about the fact that Baker is the problem, it actually reinforced it. Yesterday is what OBJ could do, if Baker wasn't in his way every week. I own zero shares, because I am a well documented Baker hater. I would sell if at all possible, without taking a loss.
  10. He's literally taken someone's job the last 4 years in a row. Every single one of which there was a clueless poster just like you saying it would never happen. And in every si gle thread you'll see me saying Hyde is the most underrated and disrespected RB in these forums every single year. This is actually the first year in which he is not as talented as the player ahead of him and will not be taking the job for any reason other than injury.
  11. 1 bad day and people want to jump ship. I'm use to the Cam hate around here, it's nothing new. I'll be honest, yesterday Cam looked the worst so far. I don't mean fantasy output, but I mean his on field play, it was night and day to what we saw vs SEA. Having said that, if Cam takes 2 of the Burkhead Goal line plunges instead, no one says a word in this thread. This is the Patriots, and Cam is one of their RBs. Everything is game plan specific to the defense they're playing against, to exploit the mentality of their opponent. Week 1 - They let Cam run wild (Defenses prepare all week to stop Cam's rushing game) Week 2 - They let Cam throw 400 yards (Defenses prepare to stop Edelman, the pass, and Cam's running) Week 3 - Cam is the decoy, Sony and Burkhead combine for 200+ yards and 3 TDs (Defenses now have to respect every aspect of the offense, because the Patriots have proven they can beat you any damn way they desire in any given week) Let's not forget, the 2nd best tool Cam has, James White, has been out for the last 2 weeks, for personal issues, not health. I'm not an NFL coach, but to me, this looks like Bill Bellichek sending a message to other teams. I believe he feels responsible for the loss against SEA for the goal line call, because the defense knew it was coming. So he's going above and beyond to establish this offense can beat you in multiple different ways. Moving forward, teams will have to play them more and more honestly, which creates multiple opportunities for not only Cam, but the entire offense. Their defense dominated the Raiders yesterday. I think Bill knew they didn't want to get in a shootout with the Raiders, who just beat the Saints, who themselves had just beat Tom Brady. The game plan was to shut down Waller, and kill the clock early and often, to go home before the Raiders could even get started. This wasn't a game plan where Cam was in a position to succeed for fantasy purposes, but I don't have a crystal ball, and I can't predict what Bellichek will do ahead of time. Once they had a comfortable lead, there's no point is charging Cam into dangerous runs to take unnecessary hits. Let Burkhead do that. If you want to rank a few QBs ahead of Cam... be my guest. My 12th round Cam Newton and 2nd round <pos> will outscore your Patrick Mahomes and your 12th round <pos>. Opportunity cost is what matters for returning draft day value. You had better pray Mahomes/Dak/etc are better than Cam Newton, otherwise you look like an idiot drafting them 6-10 rounds earlier. After a terrible week 3, Cam is currently QB6. Mahomes and Jackson need to each score about 30 points tonight to surpass him, both of whom were drafted 10 rounds ahead of him. *Through 3 weeks, Yahoo Default Scoring.
  12. I'm not pretending to be confident moving forward, but to be completely fair, he was shadowed by D.Slay all day long and had essentially no room for anything. Now, I haven't watched enough if Slay this year to say if this is Greens fault for being unable to get open, or if Slay has just been that good so far. What I can see at a glance is that PHI has held WRs to the 25th lowest rate in fantasy, including McLaurin 5 for 61, Kupp 5 for 81, and Woods 2 for 14. (Idk who Slay was on) Bad news is, he has to play Bal, CLE, and Ten in 3 if the next 4 weeks followed by a bye in week 9. After that, from week 10 on the schedule appears to be a cake walk. I wouldn't want to rely on him the next few weeks, but I wouldn't drop him either. Not yet. Just my .02
  13. Nice avatar, hoping for part 2 and 3 soon. As stated, I prefer the opposite strategy. You're right, he was my RB4... It's about perspective though, both personal and public. James Robinson won't get the trade value he deserves... but your RB1 or 2 still (most likely) will. Give me James Robinson and the WR your 1st/2nd round RB can return in trade value over Your 1st/2nd round RB and the WR James Robinson will return in trade value.
  14. You guys are crazy. I'd rather lose my 15th round pick, or find out it was just a fluke, than to 'sell high' and miss out on an RB1 that is genuinely carrying my team in combination with what I built in the first 3, not in spite of it. If J.Rob ends up being a complete fluke after 3 weeks... who cares, he's already surpassed his draft day value 10 times over. Cam + J.Rob are literally free wins and I'm riding it until the wheels fall off, for better or worse. In fact, I did the exact opposite. Because of James Robinson, I spent all Mon/Tue finding a package deal, shipping one of my high drafted RBs to every team who was struggling with RB depth, so Robinson is locked into my lineup until proven otherwise.