BigPapi44

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Posts posted by BigPapi44


  1. 2 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

     

    Isn't trading someone early to get what you think is value based completely on assumption though? You can't sell him or get any value if you wait until TJS is announced which is what you seem to be suggesting.

     

    You make the trade assuming you're making the move early but maximizing your value. Personally I have Sale and will probably hang onto him, but to dismiss the reasoning to get some value while you can makes no sense. Hell, I did the same thing with Lincecum years ago. Traded him a year early and got serious value because I read the tea leaves. Had I gone the direction you seem to advocate, I wouldn't gotten anything and would've watched him crumble while on my roster.

     

     

     

    1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

    Many of the most impassioned debates here hinge on some pretty narrow points of disagreement.  Which is fine, to some extent -- precision is important in this game, and we'll take any edge we can get.  At the same time, I don't think anyone here is saying "you should sell Sale for pennies on the dollar" in dynasty leagues based on some uninformed speculation on the RW forums.

    Without defining what fraction is meant by "pennies on the dollar", one can assume it's less than half, so let's take it to mean a quarter (at most) of his pre-2019 dynasty value just for the sake of argument.  Pitchers tend to be hugely discounted in 1st year dynasty drafts relative to redraft/keeper, and many of the higher-end dynasty arms were on the older side heading into this season, so let's be conservative and say Sale was "actually" worth $25 heading into 2019.  A quarter of that value would be roughly a $7 player, which lands somewhere in the 160-180 range overall.  The arms in that range dynasty-wise using Tristan Cockroft's mid-season dynasty rankings are guys like Matt Boyd, Jesus Luzardo, Jon Gray, Yu Darvish, Alex Reyes, Chris Archer, and Folty. 

    Is anyone ready to move on from Sale in keep forever dynasty leagues for any of those names?  I'm certainly not.  Maybe you're in a position where you're rebuilding and a Luzardo or Reyes is more likely to be a productive part of your next contending team, or maybe you're in a super deep 30 team league where there's never any pitching at all on the wire, but aside from those circumstances, I want the player with the better outlook in the next 3-5 years, and I think that's Sale based on what we know right now.

    If we find out the rehab isn't going well in the offseason I reserve the right to change my mind, but the range of outcomes is so wide right now, and the expected returns of those other arms so middling, that I'll roll the dice and hope for the best from the more proven player.

    To me that's the most logical.  From my end, some above are speculating that TJS is a foregone conclusion.  Right now, there is nothing to base that on until something is shared that he has UCL damage.  He was diagnosed with elbow inflammation and told to rest.  Could this be an issue for him moving forward, sure it can but that does not mean Sale is going under the knife.  Could it also be something that with rest goes away, I don't see why not based on the present diagnosis. For sure it depends on the league, but for me I was looking at it in terms of keeper/dynasty leagues.  Given that he's done for the year, I highly doubt anyone is giving top prospects, but ya, if you think Chris Archer or Alex Reyes, etc., is a good return and want to sell him for that, your choice, to me that really is pennies on the dollar.  Personally, I would think it pointless to move him until he can rebuild his value. 


  2. Seriously, can anyone point to an article or any information post-visit with Andrews that Sale has UCL damage and that TJS is a likely scenario?  Unless you can, the speculation is baseless.  If you are an owner in a dynasty/keeper league and want to sell him for pennies on the dollar, based on all the chicken littles spinning this story, then go nuts.

    • Like 1

  3. 19 minutes ago, cizastro said:

    I'm not a doctor, but I feel like when teams do this they're only delaying the inevitability of TJ surgery.  Maybe he comes back full bore next spring as if nothing happened, but if he ends up needing TJ surgery early next season I feel this decision will have been an extreme waste of rehabilitation time.  I'm gonna hope for the best.

     

    Honestly, this is taking things to the extreme.  What we do know, he has elbow inflammation.  There is absolutely no mention that there is UCL damage or that he is now some kind of candidate for TJS.  Could he? Yes, obviously, but that is not really based on any medical opinion or diagnosis right now.  Dr. Andrews did not recommend surgery or even list something else as an alternative before deciding if it was needed.  The report says he has elbow inflammation and he received a platelet-rich plasma injection.  He will refrain from throwing for 6 weeks.  That's all that can be taken from this.

    • Like 1

  4. 12 hours ago, Under500Forever said:

    I’d imagine he’s getting called up this year. 

    What kind of ceiling are we looking at here? 

    I guess it depends if you believe that his stats this year are a 'true breakout'.  If so, then he looks like he could have 20-25HR upside with a good average.  Not sure his speed, but at least from his milb career he doesn't look like a guy that's going to give you more than 5-10sbs.


  5. 46 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

    Anyone have any thoughts on Allard now that he's with the Rangers (and in the rotation)? He's a two start pitcher this week with match-ups against LAA and @CHW. Thoughts? 

    Everything I've read about him is a bit underwhelming. Apparently he's lost velocity since he's been drafted, but he's supposedly become a better "pitcher" to help compensate.

    Not really a guy I'd want. Looks mid to back end rotation upside.


  6. On 7/19/2019 at 8:09 PM, BigPapi44 said:

    There is consistent playing time and he might be making adjustments.  Whatever it is, he looks dialed in much like he did in ST.  Again, not every prospect has a linear development curve.  Now that he is playing pretty much everyday perhaps things are slowing down for him and he's figuring it out.

    Clap clap, one month later and even better.


  7. 3 minutes ago, Morat said:
    FRI, AUG 16, 1:52 PMROTOWIRE.COM

    France was recalled from Triple-A El Paso on Friday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.

    Spin: France will return to the majors after spending the last two-plus months at Triple-A with Fernando Tatis (back) and Ian Kinsler (neck) landing on the injured list. According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Friars will test France at second base while Luis Urias fills in at shortstop for Tatis. France played exclusively at third base during his first stint in the majors this season, but he's been seeing occasional work at the keystone with El Paso this season.

    It's tough, he's literally blocked at every position for both the near and distant future (barring an injury).  Hopefully he seizes the opportunity, but perhaps another team will look to deal for him in the off-season.


  8. 2 minutes ago, treyjuice said:

    He just got called up by the A’s . Rotoworld has him as a 1b although he’s starting at 2b tonight . .421 OBP and 73 RBI in the minors this year. Anybody have any thoughts on how his playing time and/or performance will shake out? 

    According to RW, Profar was told he will be taking a seat to Joseph.  If he can hit the ground running, the job might be his ROS.


  9. 19 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

    I mostly want to know why for the future.  I like his skill sets, and would like to believe in him again.  But by the time he gets back he will have missed 8 weeks of action with a “bruise.”  If he strained his hammy would his leg need amputation?  I just want clarity.

    I agree with @Cmilne23, that was my point as well.

    • Like 1

  10. In fairness to Pham, he's trying to gut it out.  I recognize that for fantasy that's not helpful, but you can't fault the player for wanting to give it 110%.  His stats have gone down since the injury and you can't ignore that he was on his way to a 20-20 season with a good average.  You don't want him on your team moving forward, that is justifiable considering the injuries, but he was at least productive for a good portion of the season.

    • Like 1

  11. I don't think we can call Lowe 'made of glass' at this point.  Still, it is fair to wonder why a shin bruise would keep a guy out 6 weeks.  There wasn't even a diagnosis of a hairline fracture, which may help explain it.  Any MDs that can comment that may assist, because to the lay person it really makes no sense.  


  12. 15 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

    DG has a decent start the other day. I’m going off the top of my head but I think he pitch 4.1 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 5 Ks. I read since the grip of the baseball is  different his breaking ball has lost dip.

     

     

    Should be noted that both of the ER were from inherited runners that scored.

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