Hellgrammite

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About Hellgrammite

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  1. Coronavirus is still young, and can grow this year to be the 20/20 player we all know it to be. Oh, wait, typically Rotoworld response. The coronavirus might have a more limited effect in America as the weather starts warming up and people are less confined. Similar pattern to standard flue.
  2. Robles 25% chance upside next year - .270/.340/.500 hitting 22HR and stealing 35SB in 630PA, clearing 100 runs and chipping in 80RBI, hitting at the top of the lineup for most of the season. Robles 25% downside next year - .240/.305/390 hitting 11HR and stealing 19 bases in 440PA, delivering about 55 runs and 40RBI, spending part of the season near the top of the lineup, before staying near 6th and 7th for the rest of the season. I think he will fall somewhere in the middle, which is closer to his 2019 season. But the difference between the first and second stats is basically the difference between Starling Marte and Manuel Margot, which seems like a good range for Robles to turn into as his career progresses. Again, he is young and talented, but there are a few red flags.
  3. Victor Robles had a 91wRC+ last year. While he has got talent, I wouldn't be jumping on him like he is locked to be a top 20 OF next year. Robles profile overall is incredibly similar to Manuel Margot, who was another top prospect with a very similar profile. Margot had a great first year, and everybody thought the guy was going to be locked in as a 15/25 player for the foreseeable future. Problem is once the book is out on you, they attack you and you have to adapt.
  4. His xWOBA is .290, so I think an improvement for him would be just to maintain a .325 OBP next year.
  5. He really didn't appear to bunt that much. Mallex Smith and Deshields both bunted more than him, and they had better statcast numbers. Altuve bunts a ton, and can still generate better power metrics. I am just skeptical is all. Not buying the bunting narrative.
  6. I was looking at his statcast, and its really bad. If the ball is less juiced this year, I don't think he exceed 6-10HRs this year. However, I think he is a lock for 20+ steals. I think you could get the same stats, if not a little better this season by going Mercado.
  7. Edman could be Marwin Gonzalez 2.0, just with a lot more speed. That is a very good utility player and a borderline starter for fantasy. Marwin showed near zero power in the minors, and then started hitting 15-25HR after a couple of seasons in the majors. If the ball is still juiced, I think 15HR/20SB with a .280avg is a reasonable outcome for Edman this year if he can get 500ABs. Edman showed an excellent contact rate last year, so if he can increase his BB% even a little bit, I like his chances to being top 10 in SBs.
  8. The skipper noted that Vlad prefers to hit 4th, and Gurriel will hit 3rd in the lineup to start the season. He has a good chance for a ton of RBI/R at that spot.
  9. Just hopping in here. We know he had a rough April, and got sent down to AAA for a month+ to work out some things. When he came back, he had a great few months of hitting. I dug into the 2019 stats from late May to the end of the season, and sorted by ISO. Lots of interesting names here, but I was surprised Gurriel was so high.
  10. Agreed. Jmcampbe11 noted the high ADP as justification, but that is because he is also 2B. At 2B he is arguably a top 1 or 2 choice, while at SS you can make the argument he isn't even top 8. Shows how insanely deep SS is compared to 2B. SS has roughly 17 players getting draft in the first 100 picks. 17!!! Shows you there are only like 3 tiers for the top 20 SS given how high everybody is getting drafted.
  11. Because there is also the possibility of regression. Semien improved not just in power, but his hitting profile improved in great ways. My point is not that Semien is necessarily going to edge out Torres overall in stats, my point is that they may finish much closer than people think, and if you can get a similar player 3-4 rounds later, that is savings right there. That is why tiers are important. Show you overall similar players, and then you take into account ADPs to see the values come the draft. Tiers are supposed to not use ADPs to back up their points. You look at the stats and abilities, and put those players into tiers. Then from those tiers, you can spot ADP vales come draft day. Ex: somebody nabs Torres to start the 3rd round, just wait and grab Semien at the 7th. Your 3rd round you grab Biebier or Alonso Using ADPs to justify or create tiers defeats the whole purpose.
  12. LOL, alright this thread is done. What evaluation are you using? Sabermetrics? wRC+? Contact rate? Semien meets or exceeds Torres in nearly every measure. Semien hit better against better competition in a harder ballpark last year. Torres hit 13HR against the Orioles. Against the rest of the league he was okay, but nothing amazing. Semien smashed good pitching in Oakland. Not saying Torres doesn't have potential, and he plays in a good ballpark, but Semien arguably has the higher floor in 2020. I mean Semien further dropped his K% down to 13.7% last year, and maintained a +80% contact rate. Basically his profile is 2016 Mookie Betts right now (with a better BB%, though I would cap Semien SBs at 15 at this point in his career.)
  13. Seems like too many tiers for such little separation. Semien and Torres very similar (Torres homepark advantage, Semien speed.)
  14. Hampson has an okay contact rate in AA/AAA, but at the major leagues so far has had a very hard time making contact (sub- Mallex Smith quality.) There is a risk he is a bench player long term. Coors might be the saving grace that makes him valuable in fantasy. I am more interested in somebody like Tommy Edman, who has a rookie still had a contact rate over 80% at the MLB level, which is very solid. He is also nearly as fast as Hampson, and rarely gets caught stealing.
  15. Why did this get vetoed LOL, nothing seems too imbalanced.