roadawg

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About roadawg

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  1. he could hit 15 more hrs than an average 1b and have 40 more rbi/r. you did say all opinions are equal and everyone's guess is the same and they are not.
  2. I think its fair to say Olson has a higher ceiling than Moustakas which is the context of the past few posts. It's an opinion but not all opinions are the same. If you don't think that's fair to assume that, then have at it. I prefer opinions more rooted in important data point though.
  3. If you look at the 10-90% percentile of outcomes with these two guys Olson has a 45+ HR/100/115 potential and Moustakas does not. If you think Mouse will hit his 50% projections and Olson too, then yeah I can see them ending up similar but I'm trying to win my league and catch something more special opposed to projecting out stats this way, its a shallow way to do it IMO and missing the point of catching upside. None of those projections (they way they are listed above) is looking at it the right way.
  4. He's only 25 yrs old so I think its normal to see a larger delta in value with a guy like this. I don't think its fair to say we all know what he is at this point so I can see some people paying more expecting a 4th year breakout for a player with his skills, or the other side who think they know what we have here. I'm of the camp that we haven't seen the best of him yet and I am expecting bigger things to come. The kid is only entering his 4th year and despite missing 30+ games last year, he mashed 36 HR's, while back in his rookie at age 22 year he hit 24 HRs in only 59 games. He is only now entering his prime years at age 26. He could mash 45 HR's and slug 600 and it wouldn't surprise me at all. His batted ball profile looks tasty, and absolutely he kills the ball. I see this a lot where people in general don't give enough time to fully evaluate a player's value. I don't care where the puck was I'm trying to make a better guess as to where its going. Writing could be on the wall here.
  5. This game has gotten more luck driven a little due to various little things but it has always been a centered around timing and a flawed league system most people play in (which is a separate topic altogether and I'll add a little color at the bottom) Even if you have the best team during the regular season and get week a 14 bye, that one week 15 decides your whole season because if you lose you play for 3rd and can't win it all. It's happened to me 6 or 7 times over the past 17 yrs doing this. Best team during the year, get the bye, lose week 15 due to bad timing of stats and the randomness of schedule, injuries or unexpected good play of a lesser player. If you consistently make the playoffs over many years there is real skill in that, but all of us all subject to the randomness of the game boiled down into an extremely small time frame. We also need to build better league structures to help remove luck. Many of you determine standings purely by head to head wins and losses which is flawed in and of itself and introduces another layer of luck. A better way is a system that rewards points,10 point for a win (then a decreasing amount for each team's total points for that week) and automatic 10 point for a W. So a week high man gets 20 points, and even if you get unlucky, play the high man, and have the second highest points for that week you would get 9 points for that week). This is for everyone complaining their team with the 3rd highest point total for the year is 4-7. You're playing in flawed system that outside of injuries, randomness of stats and schedule, lack of bellcows etc your league is simply broken and allows weaker teams to sneak by based on luck on what team they played and the vaunted points against metric. There's a lot to uncover here and many layers of luck involved.
  6. Negative is that JuJu isn't quick off the line or tremendously explosive.
  7. I'll go the bank all day with the between the tackles, GL back on the Patriots (hell he even catches a few balls) who has 125 touches through 7 games. Some of you guys need to realize Michel doesn't need to be fast or sexy. His job is to grind out yards, not fumble and wear the D down. Bill B is well aware that his O Line can be better and frankly aren't playing all that well. This guy is doing his job and is in a prime spot. This is the picture of fantasy goodness (for where he was drafted) and some people in here are finding problems where there aren't any. Wait until its 15 degrees outside and the real fun begins
  8. The Browns play in the NFL which is an extremely difficult and competitive league. They will be looking to score basically all the time. NFL is hard and teams wants to score 99% on all of their plays. If anyone thinks that they can easily and reliable pro-actively predict how the games on their schedule will shake out from a game flow perspective you are 100% delusional. I also recommend to quit your day job and bet on NFL games heavily, but I wish you good luck. Saying in August that Beckham won't get targets or looks because his team has an easy schedule is comical at best. The only way Beckham won't be on the field when they are trying to score a TD 99% of the time is when they are up 38-7 with 5 minutes left. And at that point I'd wager Beckham got his already. I dont know where people come up with this stuff.
  9. His profile looks a little like Baez in the high babip, LD%, GB%, pull %, but even more extreme in every sense. I think he is special, but no one is a .420 babip player. Hell Even Ichiro who probably was faster home to 1st, and a grand master at putting the ball in play either sharply on the ground or a hard line drive only had a career 338 babip. Tatis is really good but I'd bet money he isn't a .325 average player, in fact he probably wont sniff .300 career wise but on the bright side even when his batting average drops 30-40 points next year he's still a 35/35 guy, all while playing SS. That's a rare talent but I have no doubt regression is coming. Even still again, even with this regression coming he will be really good. He could negate some of this by not striking out 30% as well, which he most likely will drop his K rate as he gets older.
  10. define "a lot" Again the Hunt signing is cheap insurance and gives them options at the RB position. If Chubb is crushing it and the Browns are clicking, anyone who thinks they'll just hand over the RB reigns to a guy who hasn't play in 2.5 months is nuts.
  11. If Chubb is lighting it up and the Browns are 5-3 or 6-2 and the organization is on their way to a playoff berth they will not be making any drastic changes to the formula. Chubb will be entrenched as the clear lead back. If they are sinking or Chubb is playing poorly then you should be worried. The way I see it is you believe in the Browns this year or you don't. If they are winning and kicking a$$ you have little to worry about with Chubb's role in the offense. Especially a losing franchise like the Browns, if they find a winning formula I don't believe they will make any significant changes to the offense. I mean it's the Browns after all they could suck or mismanage their talent.
  12. There are countless players who don't end up where they are drafted every year, including top 10 guys. It's really not noteworthy but you keep going repeating the same thing over and over. You are full of solid analysis and I am really learning new things reading your stuff.
  13. There's a ton of players this year who haven't performed at their draft price. Nola isn't rare this year. in fact this year is one of the worst for busts or players getting hurt, not living up to expectations etc..
  14. Did Nola bang your gf/wife or something? what are you going on about all the time? Who said he was top 10?
  15. Good hitters develop power. The kid has a good stick. The power will come with time and in the shorter term, warmer weather.